I’m coming off another solid week for my DFS picks, but things were hardly perfect, so I’m once again taking a look around to see if there were any lessons to be learned.
Other than a few Week 12 studs like Patrick Mahomes, who was covered in the article, and Deshaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers, it was a weird week that saw a high number of low-end guys finish up near the top of the leaderboard. I probably would have listed Ryan Fitzpatrick had I known he was starting (I actually forgot to list DeVante Parker, who I had higher than usual around WR13, and I did actually list Jakeem Grant as a low-end option). Grant did nothing, but I did see him come close to making a big play. I probably should have listed Tom Brady, since I did believe he’d throw it a ton. I had him throwing it 40 times with 26 completions and he threw it 41 times with 27 completions. I guess I didn’t trust him, since the vibes were shaky and the matchup wasn’t the greatest. But I should have gone with Brady.
It just wasn’t a great week for the QB recommendations in the article, with Justin Herbert finally having a so-so game (but good for a decent QB14 for the week) and Taysom Hill throwing for fewer than 100 yards (but still QB10 for the week).
It was an odd week with low-end guys like Fitzpatrick, Mitchell Trubisky, Philip Rivers, and even Mike Glennon finishing in the top-12 (pending MNF and TNF), plus low-volume guys I rarely back like Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill, and Baker Mayfield finishing as QB1s.
I was able to avoid some shakier picks like Kyler Murray, and I almost included Teddy Bridgewater, but my biggest mistake by far was backing Cam Newton, who was not cheap. I mapped out my reasoning, and it all made sense, but Cam often doesn’t make sense, and the Patriots typically don’t make much sense. I assumed Cam would run more than the week before, and he did with 9/46 on the ground, but he did not run for a TD. I also assumed he was ready to be a little more reliable throwing the ball after he put up well over 300 yards the week before, but nope. Bottom line, you just can’t trust Cam because his range of possible outcomes is as wide as it gets. He’s still not comfortable in the offense, and he’s still working with a lame group of receivers, so I was trying to be a hero by backing Cam. Instead, I was a goat (and not the good kind).
I did also liked Daniel Jones, and that may have worked out, since he made some plays in the passing game and was running. But his hamstring ended his day prematurely. We may not see Jones for a little while with this injury.
RB is usually my weak area, but this week was pretty good. It’s easy to say now after he went off, but I’d feel pretty dumb right now if Derrick Henry didn’t do well at his high price, but I had to back that. I also felt I had to back Nick Chubb, and he was good. I actually thought he’d do better, but I’m not complaining about the RB4 for the week when we had him as the RB4 going in.
Ironically, the two high-priced guys I listed each crapped the bed, and in Josh Jacobs’ case, he had explosive diarrhea in the bed. Dalvin Cook did get hurt, and he wasn’t completely worthless like Jacobs was. Jacobs, like Cam Newton, drives me nuts due to his wide range of possible outcomes. He has a 31 and a 21-carry game this month, and 4 TDs in his previous three games, but if Jacobs doesn’t score, he’ll probably come up small, and the TDs are even flukier in this offense with Devonte Booker in the mix. Long-term, I worry about Jacobs, who seems to be held together with duct tape in the NFL and is constantly dealing with some sort of ailment (some of them not reported). I worry that Jon Gruden is going to him what he did to former #1 pick Cadillac Williams, which is to run him into the ground and shorten his career. But the Raiders can’t really be trusted in general.
I also gave love to Wayne Gallman, and I wrote that I expected a nice volume game for him, and he did get a season-hight 24 carries. Gallman’s carry total has now risen five weeks in a row from 5, 10, 12, 14, 18, to 24 last month or so. Unfortunately, his run may be disrupted by Daniel Jones’ absence, which should be at least one week.
I did also fall for the old banana in the tailpipe trick yet again with Brian Hill, who I had to back at only $4000 on DK. I mean, that looked too easy. I actually felt okay about their passing game and offense in this one, in Atlanta, and with a decent matchup. But once again, if it seems too good to be true with these replacement starters, it usually is. There have been some guys to come through, but we’ve seen too many guys look like locks and then flop. I’m talking Chase Edmonds when he owned the backfield a few weeks ago, Duke Johnson these last 2-3 weeks, and Alexander Mattison back in Week 6 when Dalvin Cook missed the game. Then again, there have been a good number of backup guys who have come through. But this we know because he did this to us last year: Hill can’t be trusted even if his coach swears on a stack of bibles that he’s getting 20 touches.
And finally, my best call of the week: Stonewall Montgomery. I actually had David Montgomery as a player to trade for last week, and as I wrote, I had a good feeling with a good matchup, a few weeks off, and a QB change to Mitchell Trubisky. Montgomery has a nice schedule, so I might revisit him again, especially this week vs. Detroit.
The one regret I have is not listing Kenyan Drake, who I did like more than usual this past week. We ranked him higher than usual, but I didn’t pull the trigger for the article. He’s obviously been hard to trust this year, but things are evening out. For 2+ months, Kyler Murray was collecting a ton of goal line carries, and the Cards weren’t throwing the ball to Drake. Now Murray is running less, likely due to his shoulder issue, and Drake actually has 9 targets and 7 catches in his last two games. Drake looks like a critical contributor now, so Drake, who has scored in half of his games this year, has earned back a lot of trust.
At WR, I led off featuring Justin Jefferson, and while it’s easy to say now he was an easy call, which he was, it’s still nice to back an expensive guy and have him actually deliver. I’d be beating myself up here if he didn’t. Not that he was insanely expensive, but Tyreek Hill was. But he was also insanely productive, so that was another big win.
I did forget to put DeVante Parker in the article, and he was good, but no credit there (although we did have him ranked higher than usual and gave him love in my Sunday column).
I took a shot with Curtis Samuel, and he was okay and was a worthwhile pick, but I thought he’d do better. The big buzzkill was Michael Pittman. I knew they were spreading the ball around, which is a problem, but he did get a strong 9 targets, so he showed us he’s not ready to be truly counted on. His price was $5000 on DK, so we need him to drop about $500 this week or next to feel good about him.
I was on the right track with two of my three bargain guys in Gabriel Davis and Corey Davis. Corey turned 3 targets into 3/70 and just like his game against Indy a couple of weeks ago, he just needed another 2-3 targets most likely to come through. The one miss was Grant, which didn’t work out. He was $3700 on DK, which is cheap but a guy like Grant probably needs to be a little cheaper, since you can’t count on much more than 4/40 receiving.
I also listed Tyler Lockett, so the WR calls could improve for the week if he does well.
TE was mostly good, but like all positions, it’s literally impossible to get them all right. I went for it with Rob Gronkowski, which was great. I also profiled Kyle Rudoph and Robert Tonyan, and both crushed it. On the negative side, Darren Waller was a major buzzkill. I also tried Gerald Everett out and it didn’t work out. However, I wrote that if Tyler Higbee was active that I was out on Everrett. Higbee was active, so I was out.
My biggest regret was not going in on Evan Engram, who I did like quite a bit. I guess I was concerned by his poor game in his last game, and I liked some lower-end guys like Tonyan and Rudolph. I also liked Hunter Henry but didn’t include him in the column. I feel a lot better now about Henry, who’s been heating up, but Engram will miss Daniel Jones for a week or more.
