Quarterbacks
Spencer Sanders, Oklahoma State at Kansas State (DK: $7,600 | O/U: 46.0)
Another week, another opportunity to take advantage of Spencer Sander’s goodness. In last week’s crushing overtime defeat to Texas, Sanders topped 400 passing yards, four TDs, and rushed for 45 yards. Kansas State, his Week 10 opponent, is allowing the 21st-most passing yards (274.2), 25th-most passing TDs/game (2.17), and 24th-most pure passing FPG (19.6) in the country. While the Wildcats actually have an excellent pass rush, the Cowboys’ O-line is far more than capable of protecting the pocket. As a whole, the Kansas State zone secondary has been solid. However, the Wildcats have yet to face anything close to the talent level of Tylan Wallace.
The Bottom Line: This is a smash spot for Sanders that easily outweighs his $800 salary increase. The only thing that should slow down this offense would be if the Kansas State offense faceplants. At 13.0 air yards per attempt, Sanders is targeting his receivers deep, and feeding his top dog.
Sean Clifford, Penn State vs. Maryland (DK: $8,900 | O/U: 64.5)
Woe to the inhabitants of the opposing team that faces Penn State after back-to-back losses. The loss to Ohio State was inevitable, but the Nittany Lions played much better against the Buckeyes than they did against Indiana. PSU will host Maryland as 25-point home favorites in Week 10. However, don’t let that money line scare you off this game. The Terrapins have been about as consistently bad at every defensive unit as they have been consistently good at every offensive unit. Sean Clifford should have zero issues dominating Maryland however he decides to attack. While Jahan Dotson was simply phenomenal against Ohio State, I will not be chasing those points at his premium salary.
The Bottom Line: Clifford has taken a 30 percent share of backfield carries that has led to over one-third of his scoring output (10.8 of 31.8). He is perfectly safe as a standalone play with an opportunity share of 65 percent. If you stack him with anyone, I am entirely confident that Pat Freiermuth will surpass his floor value of 14.1 FPs. The question isn’t if Clifford is going over 30 FPs, it’s if you plan to tag along for the ride.
Max Duggan, TCU vs. Texas Tech (DK: $6,400 | O/U: 61.5)
I’m not particularly fond of Max Duggan’s game. He has a weak arm (8.2 air yards/attempt) and he spreads his targets out so much that we are left without a single rosterable receiver. However, it takes a bee to get the honey out, and his matchup this week is incredible. Texas Tech is allowing the third-most passing yards (339.2), 13th-most TDs/game (2.67), and eighth-most pure passing FPG in the nation (24.2). With his 22 percent carry share in mind, the fact that the Red Raiders are allowing the 23rd-most rushing TDs/game (2.33) only increases Duggans’ upside.
The Bottom Line: If you haven’t taken the hint, you do not need to stack Duggan with a Horned Frogs’ receiver. If you simply must, Taye Barber has the top target share at 20 percent. TCU is implied to score 35.5 points as 9.5-point home favorites. Duggan is a near guarantee to outscore his 19.2 FPs for your ROI.
Coran Taylor, Illinois vs. Minnesota (DK: $4,500 | O/U: 61.5)
I like the previous three QBs and Coran Taylor so much, you get analysis on a fourth QB this week. To be entirely clear, touting Taylor this week is purely due to his basement salary, and prime opportunity. With Brandon Peters out with COVID, Matt Robinson received the start against Purdue. When he went down with an injury, Taylor passed for 287 yards, a pair of TDs, and also took 16 carries for 52 yards. He also threw two interceptions and lost two fumbles.
The Bottom Line: All told, Taylor collected 20.7 FPs and took a 37.2 carry share. Now I’m warning you, do not play Taylor if you do not intend to check Twitter right before game time to see if he will get the starting nod. If he does, we’ll have an excellent opportunity to save a ton of salary, and possibly get twice his floor value of 13.5 FPs on a $4.5K salary. What’s even better is that his top two stacks (Brian Hightower and Josh Imatorbhebhe) are priced under $5K. To throw in the cherry, Minnesota’s defense is terrible in all of the right ways.
Alternatives:
Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma vs. Kansas (DK: $9,100 | O/U: 63.5)
Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati vs. Houston (DK: $8,700 | O/U: 54.0)
Rocky Lombardi, Michigan State at Iowa (DK: $6,800 | O/U: 46.5)
Somewhat cheap super-flex options:
Spencer Petras, Iowa vs. Michigan State (DK: $5,800 | O/U: 46.5)
Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson, Oklahoma vs. Kansas (DK: $6,900 | O/U: 63.5)
After serving a five-game suspension, handed down by the NCAA, Rhamondre Stevenson’s wheels displayed zero signs of rust during a blowout of Texas Tech. He only took 13 carries (36 percent carry share), but he turned them into 87 yards, three TDs, and collected a pair of receptions. If you go back and read my previous entries, you’ll see that I’ve been greatly anticipating Stevenson’s return as the most-talented RB on the roster. The Sooners will head into Week 10 as 38-point home favorites against Kansas. But several Oklahoma skill playmakers will eat very well before taking a seat at some point in the second half.
The Bottom Line: If I’m worried about exposure to any Sooner due to the spread, it’s Spencer Rattler. However, I’m really not that worried at all. The Kansas offense has actually been a fraction better since Jalon Daniels took over under center. If the Jayhawks are able to at least score a couple of TDs, all of these concerns will go directly out the window. Stevenson is a future NFL stud that will steamroll the pathetic Kansas defense.
Devyn Ford, Penn State vs. Maryland (DK: $5,900 | O/U: 64.5)
As I’ve already alluded to above, Penn State is going to mount such an offensive detonation this week, the aftershocks will resonate in the nightmares of Maryland defenders for years to come. After Clifford gets his fill, he’ll pass the plate to Devyn Ford. The former four-star, dynamic true sophomore has taken over the backfield due to some unfortunate injuries. Ford’s garnered a 44 percent carry share to go along with a 10 percent target share. The Terrapins run “defense” is allowing the second-most rushing yards (293.5), the most TDs/game (4.5), and rushing FPG (56.4) in the nation this season.
The Bottom Line: Even after Clifford and Ford finish, there should be plenty of available scraps for true freshman Caziah Holmes to easily cover his floor value (9.0 FPs). Fire up the Nittany Lions’ backfield!
Javonte Williams, North Carolina at Duke (DK: $8,500 | O/U: 63.5)
It took a matchup with Charlotte for Duke to finally turn around their run defense metrics. Just don’t let that fool you. The Blue Devils do not stand a chance against Javonte Williams in Week 10. With his 45 percent carry share and eight percent target share, Williams is putting together a monster season for the Tar Heels. Despite Michael Carter being considered the passing down option, Williams has actually generated a 25 percent higher average yards per route run (YPRR).
The Bottom Line: You’ll need to pay a pretty penny for Williams these days, so the window to collect his oozing upside is dwindling. However, his price is nowhere near as high as Mohamed Ibrahim’s absolutely insane salary. If you need the push, Williams is a shoe-in for more than 25.5 FPs at an $8.5K salary.
Zach Evans, TCU vs. Texas Tech (DK: $4,000 | O/U: 61.5)
Upon seeing this recommendation, I know a few of you are going to recall some horrible memories from Zach Evans’ first game. I’ll admit that I am a complete sucker for upside. When I work through the main slate each week, I’m looking for more than floor value. I want nuclear eruptions that leave zero doubt about cashing out. For Evans, that was the past. It’s done. We need to move on. I already covered the cherry matchup for the TCU ground game against Texas Tech this week. The time is now to activate Evans with confidence in cash games and single entries.
The Bottom Line: Evans’ snaps have increased from 17 in Week 8 to 23 in Week 9. While he only received a single carry in Week 8, he took it for 10 yards, and collected all five targets for 56 additional yards. In Week 9, he turned seven carries into 81 rushing yards, and a TD against a Baylor run defense several levels above Texas Tech’s. If his involvement does not continue to increase this week, I will donate 50 percent of my Week 10 profits to a charity of the Discord participant’s choosing.
Alternatives:
Mohamed Ibrahim, Minnesota at Illinois (DK: $10,000 | O/U: 61.5)
Zamir White, Georgia vs. Florida (DK: $7,200 | O/U: 52.5)
Michael Carter, North Carolina at Duke (DK: $6,300 | O/U: 63.5)
Tyler Goodson, Iowa vs. Michigan State (DK: $6,100 | O/U: 46.5)
Deon Jackson, Duke vs. North Carolina (DK: $5,100 | O/U: 63.5)
$4.6K-or-less flex options:
Mike Epstein, Illinois vs. Minnesota (DK: $4,600 | O/U: 61.5)
Seth McGowan, Oklahoma vs. Kansas (DK: $4,500 | O/U: 63.5)
James Cook, Georgia vs. Florida (DK: $4,300 | O/U: 52.5)
Caziah Holmes, Penn State vs. Maryland (DK: $3,000 | O/U: 64.5)
Receivers
Tylan Wallace, WR, Oklahoma State at Kansas State (DK: $7,900 | O/U: 46.0)
It’s that time again. All of seven days have passed since my last Tylan Wallace tout. If you have Spencer Sanders exposure, you simply must stack him with Wallace. Wallace is collecting a 38 percent target share and producing 3.81 YPRR on 94 percent of team routes. I’ll cover another receiver further down who is producing monumental per route numbers in 2020. While Wallace’s 0.75 FPs/route (FP/Rt) leave him short of that mysterious WRs level, he is doing his work on 40 percent more routes.
The Bottom Line: All we need from Wallace this week to cover value is 23.7 FPs. Wallace is averaging 24.8 FPG. And that average includes three full games without Sanders. With the rate at which Sanders is targeting him along with the lion’s share of money looks, Wallace is simply a plug-and-play, no brainer.
Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota at Illinois (DK: $7,000 | O/U: 61.5)
If you haven’t seen the salary listed for Mohamed Ibrahim this week, go take a look. He is coming in at $10,000! Granted, he’s gone ballistic the first two weeks, and is currently averaging 47.7 FPG. However, he’ll need to reach 30 FPs before you will see a single bit of value. And he does absolutely nothing through the air. The main beneficiary of the Ibrahim overreaction is Rashod Bateman. The young man will be one of the top-five WR selections in the 2021 NFL Draft. The problem for Ibrahim stocks is that the Fighting Illini possess a strong run defense. Their passing defense, that’s another story.
The Bottom Line: Illinois is allowing the sixth-most passing yards (312.0), the most TDs/game (3.5), and the fourth-most receiving FPG (76.7) in the nation this season. Ibrahim’s success has led to a continued drop in Bateman’s salary. It’s time to fire up the talented playmaker. His crazy 46 percent target share against the Cover 1 man and Cover 2 zone combo secondary of Illinois is mouth watering.
Dyami Brown, WR, North Carolina at Duke (DK: $7,700 | O/U: 63.5)
If anyone has seen Dazz Newsome, please inform the North Carolina coaching staff. With Beau Corrales ruled out for another game, Dyami Brown makes for an excellent pivot off either Wallace (shame on you) or Batemen. Now, keep in mind, Duke’s Cover 1 secondary is much more capable than it’s run defense. And Victor Dimukeje and Chris Rumph II make up one of, if not the most disruptive edge rushing tandems in the country. As long as Sam Howell is able to survive long enough, the ball is going to head in Brown’s direction.
The Bottom Line: Not to be outdone by Bateman, Brown is tied with Rashod at 3.25 YPRR this season. His 31 percent target share is on the rise, and he’s seeing an elite 16.9 air yards/target. UNC will head into Week 10 as 10.5-point road favorites. If the Blue Devils put up a fight, we could see Brown generate FPs at a similar rate from Week 9 when he put together an 11/240/3 receiving line.
Marvin Mims, WR, Oklahoma vs. Kansas (DK: $6,800 | O/U: 63.5)
Here it is, ladies and gentlemen! What Marvin Mims is doing this season is without comparison. The true freshman has generated 1.10 FP/Rt! To put that into perspective, he’s procured 40 percent more FP/Rt than any other WR on the slate. As I’ve already gone over, this is a slate stacked with future NFL star wideouts. What’s even more amazing, he’s only running 35 percent of team routes, and seeing a 16 percent target share. However, he is also splitting the most Oklahoma WR routes with Theo Wease. It’s just that the Sooners have really only seen significant kickback in three-of-six games. Granted, he’s new to the system, and it will be difficult to trust him outside of multi-entry tourneys.
The Bottom Line: I know many of our premium subscribers are mainly cash/SE, but this has simply gone on too long without a write-up. If Mims were to play full games, he’d be leading all WRs in the country in the dust at every receiving counting stat imaginable. I would not be surprised if Lincoln Riley is holding him back in order to limit his press coverage in a futile attempt to keep him all four years.
Alternatives:
Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State vs. Maryland (DK: $4,700 | O/U: 64.5)
Chris Autman-Bell, WR, Minnesota at Illinois (DK: $5,000 | O/U: 61.5)
Theo Wease, WR, Oklahoma vs. Kansas (DK: $4,900 | O/U: 63.5)
Jayden Reed, WR, Michigan State at Iowa (DK: $5,900 | O/U: 46.5)
Whop Philyor, WR, Indiana vs. Michigan (DK: $5,800 | O/U: 54.0)
Kearis Jackson, WR, Georgia at Florida (DK: $4,900 | O/U: 52.5)
Dontay Demus Jr., WR, Maryland at Penn State (DK: $5,300 | O/U: 64.5)
Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida at Georgia (DK: $6,200 | O/U: 52.5)
Brian Hightower, WR, Illinois vs. Minnesota (DK: $4,600 | O/U: 61.5)
$4.5K-or-less options:
Michael Young Jr., WR, Cincinnati vs. Houston (DK: $4,500 | O/U: 54.0)
Josh Imatorbhebhe, WR, Illinois vs. Minnesota (DK: $4,200 | O/U: 61.5)
Sam LaPorta, TE, Iowa vs. Michigan State (DK: $4,200 | O/U: 46.5)
Parker Washington, WR, Penn State vs. Maryland (DK: $4,100 | O/U: 64.5)
