By Josh Chevalier, CFB DFS Analyst
Tuesday’s two-game slate features fun, explosive offenses that can put up points and defenses hit with opt-outs, injuries and COVID-19 issues. The Cheez-It Bowl (Oklahoma State vs. Miami) features two offenses who are well-balanced while having defenses that were solid during the year, but have opt-outs at key positions for the bowl game.
Oklahoma State should have its way on offense versus a defense who struggles against the run and has been torched by NFL-caliber WRs this year. Miami recently received great news with the return of D’Eriq King in 2021. Look for King to try to put the Canes on his back and carry them to victory as the Cowboys have not fared well versus dual-threat QBs this year.
The Valero Alamo Bowl (Texas vs Colorado) features two young RBs who are budding superstars and defenses who have shown a propensity to give up points. With Brennan Eagles opting out Texas will need the rest of the WR core to step up and make plays, but the question is who will step up in his absence? Figuring that out could be huge in a two-game slate where a big game from an unexpected player goes a long way in Cash/SE contests.
This slate is similar to Saturday’s with solid QB & RB options while also featuring a clear top WR option (if he plays) in Tylan Wallace. For a two-game slate, there are lots of fun narratives. Let’s dig in.
Against the Spread Picks
Texas (-9) vs. Colorado
Oklahoma State (-2.5) vs. Miami
Texas vs. Colorado (Over 63.5)
Oklahoma State vs. Miami (Over 58.5)
Sam Ehlinger, Texas vs. Colorado (DK: $8.8K | FD: $12.0K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 36.0)
Sam Ehlinger is the highest-priced QB on this slate and very well might be the best option averaging 31.9 FPG. However, after averaging 40.3 FPG over the first five games of the season, Ehlinger has struggled down the stretch only putting up 21.5 FPG in his last four. When I pay up for the highest-priced QB on a slate, I want to know he is going to hit.
Colorado is an average pass D giving up 240-plus passing yards in 3-of-5 games. They have also allowed at least 29 yards rushing in each game this season. The one time they faced a dual-threat QB this year was UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson. He torched the Colorado D for 303 yards passing and 109 yards rushing with 5 total TDs. If Sam Ehlinger is healthy, which is possible with more than three weeks off, then he could absolutely hit value in this game.
D’Eriq King, Miami vs. Oklahoma State (DK: $8.2K | FD: $10.8K | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 28.5)
D’Eriq King has been a godsend for Miami providing dynamic play after dynamic play that we all have come to expect from him. He is averaging 27.8 FPG and has the dual-threat abilities that we look for in QBs. In the five games that were decided by 14 points or less, King’s averaged 30.8 FPG. Oklahoma State has faced three dual-threat QBs this season, surrendering 100-plus rushing yards against two. With only one game below 20 FPs this year, King is the model of consistency and is great Cash/SE play this week.
Spencer Sanders, Oklahoma State vs. Miami (DK: $6.9K | FD: $10.0K | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 30.0)
After suffering an ankle injury early in the season, Spencer Sanders seems to have hit his groove averaging 24 FPG over his last three games. Over that span, he has at least 220 yards passing and 25 yards running in each game. However, this recommendation is as much about the matchup as it is about Sanders. Miami’s DEF will be without it’s top 2 DEs, one of their starting CBs and their LBs are the weakest unit on the team. Those top two DEs, Quincy Roche and Jaelan Phillips, opted out as they are both expected to be Day 1 or 2 picks in the NFL Draft.
More on it below, but Miami has also struggled versus NFL-caliber WRs they’ve faced this year. Sanders is in a good position to hit value on this slate and, if we insert him into our lineup, it allows us to pay up for the top RBs on this slate plus Tylan Wallace.
Sam Noyer, Colorado vs Texas (DK: $6.5K | FD: $9.0 | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 27.0)
Jarek Broussard, Colorado vs Texas (DK: $7.2K | FD: $9.6 | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 27.0)
Jarek Broussard has been incredible this year averaging 24.6 FPG and posting double-digit FPs in each game this year. Broussard is the dominant RB1 for Colorado, averaging 27 touches per game. The next closest RB is averaging 5 touches per game. Every other backfield in this slate splits touches more evenly between their RBs. For this reason, Broussard is a lock in Cash/SE lineups at $7.2K.
Bijan Robinson, Texas vs. Colorado (DK: $6.3K | FD: $9.1K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 36.0)
After a slow start to his freshman campaign, Bijan Robinson has looked like the five-star RB he is over the last five games. He finally broke out in his last game versus Kansas State with 9 carries for 172 yards with 3 TDs for 46.3 FPs. Over the last 5 games, Robinson has outcarried Roschon Johnson 62 to 38 along with carries going to Sam Ehlinger, as well.
However, Colorado is a great matchup for Robinson as they have given up 30-plus FPs to opposing RBs in 3-of-5 games this year. With Robinson’s high upside, it’s hard to fade him in a two-game slate. I’d lock up Robinson and Broussard as the two safest RB options on this slate.
Dezmon Jackson, Oklahoma State vs. Miami (DK: $4.0K | FD: $8.2K | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 30.0)
The Oklahoma State RB is amazing if you’re a fan, but stress-inducing for DFS purposes. LD Brown is RB1 on the depth chart released by Oklahoma State for the bowl game after being injured the last 3 games. However, there has not been confirmation that he is playing. Last game, Dominic Robinson exploded with 23 carries for 169 yards and 3 TDs. In the two games before that, Dezmon Jackson combined for 65 carries, 353 yards, and 4 TDs. We need one of these RBs in our lineup as Miami is ranked 83rd in rush DEF giving up 180 YPG. Here is what Oklahoma State OC Kasey Dunn had to say about the backfield heading into the game:
Here is my take: It sounds like Brown is still not 100 percent despite being listed atop the depth chart. My guess is they lean on Dezmon Jackson and Dominic Robinson, using a hot-hand approach. Jackson has been the starter in the last three games so he should get first crack in the rotation. He is also a much cheaper option with a price point of $4.0K versus $6.0K for Robinson. Jackson is the safe and smart choice for Cash/SE lineups..
Dominic Richardson, Oklahoma State vs. Miami (DK: $6.0K | FD: $6.0K | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 30.0)
Cam’Ron Harris, Miami vs. Oklahoma State (DK: $5.0K | FD: $8.0K | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 28.5)
Roschon Johnson, Texas vs. Colorado (DK: $4.7K | FD: $7.5K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 36.0)
LD Brown, Oklahoma State vs. Miami (DK: $3.4K | FD: $7.2K | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 30.0)
Donald Chaney, Miami vs. Oklahoma State (DK: $3.7K | FD: $5.5K | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 28.5)
Jaren Mangham, Colorado vs Texas (DK: $3.2K | FD: $5.3K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 27.0)
Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State vs. Miami (DK: $6.7K | FD: $9.5K | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 30.0)
Tylan Wallace is by far the best and most consistent WR option on this slate. He has at least 4 catches and 68 receiving yards in each game this season. He also has double-digit targets in every game since Week 2. Like I said above, Miami has struggled to contain NFL-caliber WRs like Tutu Atwell, Dyami Brown, and Jordan Addison. Those three alone averaged 7 receptions and 143 yards along with two TDs. Wallace is a lock after he confirmed he is playing in this game.
Mike Harley, Miami vs. Oklahoma State (DK: $6.1K | FD: $8.1K | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 28.5)
After a slow start to the year, Mike Harley has exploded over the last five games averaging 25.3 FPG. Oklahoma State is ranked 45th versus opposing WRs giving up 34.0 FPG, but recently lost its best and most experienced DB after Rodarius Williams opted out to declare for the NFL Draft.. Harley is leading Miami in every receiving statistical category by a wide margin, and should be in our lineups if we can afford him.
Brevin Jordan, Miami vs. Oklahoma State (DK: $5.9K | FD: $8.5K | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 28.5)
Brevin Jordan, when healthy, is one of the best tight ends in the country. The Miami passing game is focused on Jordan and Harley. Over his last five games, Jordan has averaged 25.3 FPG with at least 6 catches and 77 yards in four of those games. I personally would trust Mike Harley a little bit more, but if you want slight savings then Jordan is a great option.
Jake Smith, Texas vs. Colorado (DK: $4.5K | FD: $7.0K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 36.0)
Figuring out the top WR option for Texas in the bowl game with Brennan Eagles opting out is a must with their low salaries on DK. The leading candidates are Jake Smith, Joshua Moore, and with Jordan Whittington as the dark horse. On DK, Whittington is the highest-priced option, but Jake Smith has been the most consistent option, when healthy, averaging 6 targets per game and scoring 11.9 FPG on DK.
I like Moore’s upside as a GPP dart throw, but he is hard to rely on in Cash/SE slates as he has struggled to find production averaging only 3 targets over his last five games. I love Whittington’s playmaking ability, but he seems to be as fragile as Mr. Glass in Unbreakable. Again, I really like him as a GPP dart throw, but don’t trust him in Cash/SE.
All that to say, Jake Smith is the only Texas WR I trust in Cash/SE lineups and he will hit value without Eagles at his price point of $4.5K.
Jordan Whittington, Texas vs. Colorado (DK: $4.9K | FD: $6.4K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 36.0)
Dillon Stoner, Oklahoma State vs. Miami (DK: $5.6K | FD: $7.3K | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 30.0)
Brady Russell, Colorado vs Texas (DK: $5.1K | FD: $7.7K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 27.0)* IF HEALTHY
Brenden Rice, Colorado vs Texas (DK: $5.2K | FD: $6.0K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 27.0)
La’vontae Shenault, Colorado vs Texas (DK: $4.6K | FD: $5.9K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 27.0)
Joshua Moore, Texas vs. Colorado (DK: $3.9K | FD: $8.2K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 36.0)
Mark Pope, Miami vs. Oklahoma State (DK: $4.1K | FD: $6.1K | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 28.5)
Dee Wiggins, Miami vs. Oklahoma State (DK: $4.4K | FD: $6.3K | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 28.5)
Braydon Johnson, Oklahoma State vs. Miami (DK: $3.1K | FD: $5.8K | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 30.0)
Josh Chevalier started playing CFB DFS when it was introduced on DK in 2015. Since its return to DK in 2018, he has provided in-depth weekly articles & analysis specializing in Cash/SE contests. Follow Josh on Twitter:@CFFguys