One of the places you can find an advantage in the props game is with IDPs. This is true in in-season props and it’s certainly true in the Super Bowl. Take the longshot prop of Von Miller — having the best season of his career — winning the MVP in Super Bowl 50. That worked out nicely. Here are my favorite IDP props for Super Bowl LVI.
Aaron Donald +1200 to win Super Bowl MVP (BetMGM)
In recent years, the previous defensive MVPs have all been game-wreckers in some form or fashion. It usually takes sacks, turnovers, and defensive TDs to get the attention of the voters. Von Miller won the MVP due to his game-changing sacks that led to turnovers and a touchdown. LB Malcolm Smith won the MVP in 2014 by posting 10 tackles, recovering a fumble, and snagging a pick-six off Peyton Manning. “Game Wrecker” is Donald’s middle name. Middle names? You get the point: he’s good. Donald’s 12.5 sacks in the regular season mark the 5th straight year he’s hit the double-digit sack mark. He also added 1.5 more sacks this postseason. In terms of turnovers, AD has 4 forced fumbles this season, giving him at least 4 forced fumbles in four of his last five seasons. He welcomes a Bengals team that ranks 3rd in sacks allowed this season (55) to his home turf. One of the reasons the Bengals have been doubted this year is their struggles in keeping Joe Burrow off the turf. Tennessee DT Jeffery Simmons plays a similar role as Donald and racked up 3 sacks of Burrow in the Divisional Round. Simmons is a really good player. Donald is considered by many to be the best player in the game on either side of the ball. One of the shakiest O-lines meets the world’s best football player? I’ll need a little bit of this action.
Rams Over 3.5 Total Sacks +105 (DraftKings)
As noted above, Cincinnati has had trouble preventing sacks. Their 55 sacks allowed this season are 3rd most, and the postseason hasn’t been any kinder. Tennessee racked up 9 sacks against the Bengals in the Divisional Round, while the Raiders brought Joe Burrow down twice in the Wild Card Round. The Chiefs got to Burrow just once, but KC’s pass rush is one of the worst in the game. Their 31 sacks in the regular season are 4th-fewest. This Bengals O-line now has to face the 3rd-best pass rush in the game. Aaron Donald and the Rams had 50 sacks in the regular season and added 5 more this postseason against much better O-lines.
Vonn Bell +125 over 5.5 tackles + assists (BetMGM)
Playing strong safety, Bell is the primary tackler in the Bengals’ secondary. In fact, his 97 tackles this season are only 3 off the team lead (MLB Logan Wilson). Including the playoffs, Bell has hit 6+ tackles in five of his last eight games, registering fewer than 4 only once this season. Put simply, he hovers around 5-7 tackles per game on average. The Rams have a strong chance of pushing Bell to the higher side of that average (or possibly beyond). Their 29.1 tackles allowed to DBs ranked 5th in the regular season. So how have safeties fared against the Rams in the postseason? Arizona’s Jalen Thompson had 12 tackles in the Wild Card Round. Tampa Bay’s Antoine Whitfield had 9 tackles, while his partner Jordan Whitehead had 7 in the Divisional Round. Finally, in the Conference Championship, Jimmie Ward racked up 8 tackles, while his safetymate Jacquiski Tartt had 6. In other words, 5 of the 6 safeties that have faced the Rams this postseason would have hit this bet. And Bell was a solid bet to hit even if his opponent wasn’t so DB-friendly. I also like Jessie Bates III (5.5 tackles + assists, +125) but not as much.
