Player Props Record: 8-3 (73%)
I’ve been playing fantasy football since 1987 and while I absolutely love the challenge of drafting, managing rosters and putting together lineups every week, betting individual player props has rapidly become my favorite way to cash in on my fantasy knowledge. Looking to get an edge over the sportsbooks, a couple of years ago I started comparing each of John Hansen’s player projections to the player props being offered by the books. I looked for the largest discrepancies between John’s numbers and the books’ numbers to identify betting opportunities. I’ve developed a good feel and a baseline for what constitutes a “significant” discrepancy between the projections and the props and I’ve been betting accordingly – shopping the various books for the most favorable odds of course.
We hit on 73% of these in Week 1 so let’s keep it going in Week 2! Here’s a look at the player prop discrepancies I like most for Week 2 followed by a list of all of the significant discrepancies for the week.
Jalen Hurts vs. SF
A difference of 6.5 attempts is likely one of the larger discrepancies we’ll see in this statistical category all season. As 3-point home dogs the Eagles may need to throw more than usual and the Fantasy Points team thinks Hurts will throw closer to 40 times than 30. I agree. He is averaging 39.3 pass attempts per game in the last three games that he has both started and finished. Last week Hurts threw 35 times in a blowout win over Atlanta and Jared Goff chucked it 57 times against this Niners defense.
Javonte Williams @ JAC
|JAV. WILLIAMS||OVER 35.5||34.5||-115||DK|
We went 2-0 on Williams last week and we’re going right back to the well again in Week 2 as this props number is just too darned low. His rushing yards projection here on the site is 70, so it’s easy to feel good about him going over 35. Williams carried 14 times for 45 yards last week while playing 50% of the snaps against a Giants run defense that’s been solid.. This week Denver is a 6-point favorite against a Jaguars team that allowed 160 rushing yards on 41 carries to the Texans in Week 1. The Texans.
Nick Chubb vs. HOU
The Browns are favored to beat the Texans by 13 points which should mean plenty of rushing attempts and yards for Chubb. Our rushing yards projection for Chubb is at 110 yards so I’ll gladly go in on him to top 84. Chubb ran for 126 yards against Houston in Week 10 of last season and he averages 95 yards per game in his career when the Browns win, which shouldn’t be a problem here.
James Conner vs. MIN
Our projections on the site show Conner toting it 14 times this week and this is the largest rushing attempts discrepancy on the board. I’m not a Conner backer and in fact, I have zero shares of him in redraft leagues, but he doesn’t need to do well for us to win this bet, he just needs opportunities. Conner led all Cardinals backs with 16 carries in Week 1 and with the Cards as 3.5-point home favorites this week against the Vikings he shouldn’t have much trouble getting to 9 carries.
Tyreek Hill @ BAL
|T. HILL||OVER 89.5||30.5||-115||MGM|
As Graham Barfield pointed out in this week’s Stat Pack, Tyreek Hill is averaging 117.8 yards per game over his last 10 games including the playoffs. He’s simply too hot for me to shy away from this large of a yardage discrepancy. 30+ yard discrepancies for elite wide receivers don’t come along every week.
Keenan Allen vs. DAL
|K. ALLEN||OVER 77.5||27.5||-115||MGM|
Did you SEE the Dallas pass defense in Week 1? Allen has posted double-digit targets in 11 of his 13 games with Justin Herbert which makes him an appealing bet to go over 77 yards receiving this week. Bookmakers expect this to be the highest-scoring game of the week so I’m firing up this prop bet with confidence.
Devonta Smith vs. SF
|D. SMITH||OVER 49.5||20.5||-111||MGM|
Smith looked great in his Week 1 debut and was clearly the team’s top pass-catching option. He led the Eagles in targets and WR-routes run en route to a 71-yard day. This week he faces a 49ers defense that gave up 338 passing yards to the Lions last week. They just lost DB Jason Verrett (ACL) which makes them even shakier against the pass. 50+ yards seems like a strong bet for Smith this week.
Hunter Renfrow @ PIT
Per Tom Brolley…Renfrow led all Raiders WRs in routes (37), targets (9), and catches (6) in Week 1 and slot-man Cole Beasley posted 8/60 receiving on 13 targets against the Steelers last week. The Raiders are 6.5-point road dogs here which should mean plenty of pass attempts for Derek Carr. I feel good enough about this one to take it even with the extra juice at -145.
Here’s the full list of the “significant” discrepancies I found for Week 2. Note that props and odds can change fairly quickly, especially on a Sunday morning so it’s important to check the various books for the best numbers/odds before placing your bet. Happy wagering!
|JAV. WILLIAMS||OVER 35.5||34.5||-115||DK|
|A. JONES||OVER 68.5||19.5||-110||DK|
|T. HILL||OVER 89.5||30.5||-115||BETMGM|
|K. ALLEN||OVER 77.5||27.5||-115||BETMGM|
|D. SMITH||OVER 49.5||20.5||-111||BETMGM|
|R. ANDERSON||OVER 47.5||20.5||-118||BETMGM|
|R. MOORE||OVER 40.5||19.5||-110||DK|
|J. SMITH||OVER 28.5||18.5||-118||BETMGM|
|J. WHITE||OVER 24.5||15.5||-111||BETMGM|
|J. TAYLOR||OVER 15.5||15.5||-115||DK|
|M. EVANS||OVER 54.5||15.5||-115||BETMGM|
|D. SMITH||OVER 3.5||1.5||-161||BETMGM|
|J. WHITE||OVER 3.5||1.5||130||BETMGM|
|J. TAYLOR||OVER 2.5||1.5||115||DK|
|M. WILLIAMS||OVER 4.5||1.5||110||BETMGM|
|D. COOK||OVER 3.5||1.5||100||BETMGM|
|DI. JOHNSON||UNDER 6.5||1.5||-150||DK|
|R. MOORE||OVER 2.5||1.5||-175||BETMGM|
|J. SMITH||OVER 2.5||1.5||-175||DK|