I had a rough week last week and ran out of time, so I didn’t make any picks here. As always, check out our other picks in the betting section, especially Tom Brolley’s and also Paul Kelly’s. Paul’s been using my projections to find the best prop bets for years, and he’s easily over 60% over those years. He’s well over 60% in 2021.
Last Week’s ATS Record: 0-0
Best Bets ATS Record (Season): 11-9
Totals Record: 3-3
New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at New York Jets — This one started at -3.5, but I’ll still take it at -5.5 with Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, Michael Carter, and Tevin Coleman out. Oh, and Alvin Kamara is in for the Saints.
Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) at Washington Football Team — While this number is a little high, I’m still confident the Cowboys passing game will have a big day, and I would not be surprised if Ezekiel Elliott shows signs of life.
Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) at San Francisco 49ers — I love the Bengals passing game in this one, and the 49ers are without their top RB, so this one feels like stealing.
Last week: 8-8
Player Props Record: 96-87
Man, I got pretty hosed in Week 12 with four very close losses (Miles Sanders, Logan Thomas, Saquon Barkley, and Noah Fant) and another two losses that were pretty close, so that may be why I took Week 13 off. But I’m back for Week 14 and ready to enjoy some better luck.
- Antonio Gibson OVER 66.5 rushing yards (-114 FD)
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire OVER 62.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)
- Alvin Kamara OVER 69.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)
- Javonte Williams OVER 67.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)
- Devonta Freeman OVER 11.5 rushing attempts (-133 BETMGM)
- Donovan Peoples-Jones OVER 35.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)
- DeSean Jackson OVER 20.5 receiving yards (-110 DK)
- Darnell Mooney OVER 44.5 receiving yards (-110 DK)
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)
- Tre’Quan Smith OVER 37.5 receiving yards (-110 CAESARS)
- Jeff Wilson OVER 53.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)
- Laquon Treadwell OVER 35.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)
- Jamison Crowder OVER 53.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)
- Ja’Marr Chase OVER 63.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)
- AJ Dillon OVER 13.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)
KJ Osborn OVER 41.5 receiving yards (-115 DK) — Based on what should be a large role in Week 14 with Adam Thielen out, this one should be easy. The Steelers won’t have CB Joe Haden, which is all the more reason to devote resources into stopping Justin Jefferson. The Steelers are also generally good against TEs, so it’s not a great matchup for Tyler Conklin. Without looking at this number, I had Osborn with 55 yards receiving, which is fairly conservative. He should need only three catches to hit this number, and he should get 7-8 targets at least.