I recently wrapped up my 2023 NFL Betting Previews for all 32 teams and I’d encourage you to check them out for in-depth breakdowns of season win totals, Super Bowl odds, individual player props, and much more. With those previews done, it’s time to take a look at the 2023 NFL Rushing Leader Futures to see if we can’t pick out a winner or two. Everyone likes to lay a little bit of money to win a lot of money, and I’ve come up with my favorite plays for each of the major leader futures for passers, runners, and receivers.
The NFL had two surprise league leaders in the rushing categories. Josh Jacobs (+4000) paced the NFL with 1653 rushing yards, while Jamaal Williams (+10000) came from out of nowhere to finish with 17 rushing TDs. Nick Chubb is the favorite to finish with the most rushing yards (+450), and Derrick Henry is the top option to lead the league in rushing TDs (+550). Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor, and rookie Bijan Robinson are among the other top favorites to contend for the two rushing titles.
The odds in this article are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook — under NFL/League Leaders. Historical odds are courtesy of SportsOddsHistory.
Rushing Yards
Previous Leaders
| Year | Running Back (Age) | Rushing Yards | Odds (rank) |
| 2022 | Josh Jacobs (24) | 1653 | +4000 (t-20th) |
| 2021 | Jonathan Taylor (22) | 1811 | +900 (4th) |
| 2020 | Derrick Henry, Ten (26) | 2027 | +600 (1st) |
| 2019 | Derrick Henry, Ten (25) | 1540 | +1300 (3rd) |
| 2018 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dal (23) | 1434 | +285 (1st) |
| 2017 | Kareem Hunt, Cle (22) | 1327 | +20000 (t-32nd) |
| 2016 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dal (21) | 1631 | +850 (3rd) |
| 2015 | Adrian Peterson, Min (30) | 1485 | +500 (t-1st) |
| 2014 | DeMarco Murray, Dal (26) | 1845 | +3000 (12th) |
| 2013 | LeSean McCoy, Phi (25) | 1607 | +2500 (t-13th) |
Historical Hints
Longer shots led the league in rushing yards in 2013-14 when LeSean McCoy (+2500) and DeMarco Murray (+3000) came from off the pack to pace the league in rushing yards. The rushing leader came from within the top-four favorites in six of the next seven seasons in 2015-21. The one major exception happened in 2017 when Kareem Hunt (+20000) came from out of nowhere to lead the league as a third-round rookie. Josh Jacobs made it four long shots to lead the NFL in rushing yards in the last decade with his performance in 2022.
The league leader in rushing yards fell below the 100-yard-per-game pace for three straight years in 2017-19. Derrick Henry (+600) and Jonathan Taylor (+900) blew past the century mark in 2020-21, and Jacobs fell just below that pace with 97.2 rushing YPG. It comes as no surprise that nine of the last 10 rushing leaders have checked in at 26 years old or younger, and four of the last five winners have checked in at 24 years old or younger.
Fantasy Points Projections Top 10
| Running Back | Projection | Odds |
| Nick Chubb (Cle) | 1365 | +450 |
| Bijan Robinson (Atl) | 1315 | +1000 |
| Jonathan Taylor (Ind) | 1315 | +650 |
| Derrick Henry (Ten) | 1265 | +650 |
| J.K. Dobbins (Bal) | 1200 | +3500 |
| Najee Harris (Pit) | 1165 | +3000 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 1160 | +1500 |
| Saquon Barkley (NYG) | 1135 | +1500 |
| Josh Jacobs (LV) | 1135 | +1500 |
| Travis Etienne (Jax) | 1090 | +3500 |
The Favorites
The top of the rushing leaders' future board features four backs at 10/1 odds or shorter, including rookie RB Bijan Robinson (+1000). Saquon Barkley (+1500), Leonard Fournette (no odds), Ezekiel Elliott (+7500), and Todd Gurley were the last four backs drafted inside the top 10 over the last decade. Fournette was the only RB in that group who failed to reach 1100+ rushing yards despite totaling a career-high 268 carries in 13 games as a rookie. Nick Chubb (+450) has been knocking on the door to a rushing-yardage crown and is the favorite entering. He’s started his career with 996+ rushing yards in each of his first five seasons, including 1525 yards last season. Out of 42 RBs with 100+ carries, Chubb ranked third with 3.52 yards after contact per attempt last season (per Fantasy Points Data).
Derrick Henry (+650) and Jonathan Taylor (+650) are two of the three RBs currently on a roster who have previously led the league in rushing yards, and they’re tied as the second favorites in 2023. King Henry has topped 1500+ rushing yards and 300+ carries in three different campaigns, and he finished as the runner-up to Josh Jacobs (+1500) despite playing behind a deteriorating Tennessee offensive line that had no quarterback by the end of the season. Taylor is locked in a contract dispute with the Colts but owns career averages of 89.3 rushing YPG and 5.1 YPC in his first 43 games.
The Contenders
The Cowboys have yet to do anything of note in their backfield after releasing Zeke earlier this off-season, and HC Mike McCarthy made it seem like they’ll stick with the status quo after Ronald Jones’ two-game suspension. Tony Pollard (+1600) could be in a spot to see his carries and rushing yards rise for the fourth straight year after posting a career-best 193/1007/9 rushing. He finished with the most yards after contact per attempt with 3.90 and the highest rate of explosive runs at 43.8% (per Fantasy Points Data).
Dark Horses
The Seahawks brought in additional competition for Kenneth Walker (+3000) when they drafted Zach Charbonnet, but he piled up big numbers after Rashaad Penny (+4000) went down for the season. KWIII averaged the fourth-most rushing YPG (81.2) from Week 5 through the end of the season and ranked fourth with 2.16 yards before contract per attempt behind an O-line that started two rookie tackles last season (per Fantasy Points Data).
The Jaguars brought in some fresh competition for Travis Etienne (+3500) in the form of Tank Bigsby, but ETN showed some big-play ability as the team’s lead back last year. He finished behind only Chubb and Walker with 451 explosive-run yards, and he ranked behind only Miles Sanders (+3000) with 2.21 yards before contact per attempt. Walker and Etienne finished behind only Pollard in explosive run rate at 43.6% and 40.6%, respectively.
Rushing Touchdowns
Previous Leaders
| Year | Running Back (Age) | Rushing TDs | Odds (rank) |
| 2022 | Jamaal Williams (27) | 17 | +10000 (t-40th) |
| 2021 | Jonathan Taylor (22) | 18 | +800 (t-3rd) |
| 2020 | Derrick Henry, Ten (26) | 17 | +600 (t-1st) |
| 2019 | D. Henry, Ten (25), A. Jones, GB (24) | 16 | +1000 (t-3rd), +3000 (t-19th) |
| 2018 | Todd Gurley, LAR (24) | 17 | +650 (3rd) |
| 2017 | Todd Gurley, LAR (23) | 13 | +2500 (t-11th) |
| 2016 | LeGarrette Blount, NE (29) | 18 | N/A |
| 2015 | D. Freeman, Atl (23)/J. Hill, Cin (22)/A. Peterson, Min (30)/D. Williams, Car (32) | 11 | N/A |
| 2014 | M. Lynch, Sea (28)/D. Murray, Dal (26) | 13 | N/A |
| 2013 | J. Charles, KC (26)/M. Lynch, Sea (27) | 12 | N/A |
Historical Hints
We have odds for only the last six years at our disposal, but a player inside the top three in odds had cashed in 2018-21. Jonathan Taylor ended a four-year run when either Todd Gurley (2017-18) or Derrick Henry (2019-20) owned or shared the lead in rushing touchdowns. Jamaal Williams emerged from nowhere to become the longest-odds winner in the last six years.
The rushing touchdown leader has averaged at least a rushing TD per game in each of the last five seasons after the leader fell below that pace in 4-of-5 seasons from 2013-17. This is the one statistical category that’s ended in a tie — dead-heat rules apply — a whopping four times over the last decade. Williams and LeGarrette Blount are the two backs who were older than 26 years old when they led the NFL in rushing TDs since 2016.
Fantasy Points Projections Top 10
| Running Back | Projection | Odds |
| Derrick Henry (Ten) | 12 | +550 |
| Jonathan Taylor (Ind) | 11.5 | +1000 |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | 11 | +2500 |
| J.K. Dobbins (Bal) | 10 | +4500 |
| Jalen Hurts (Phi) | 10 | +1300 |
| Nick Chubb (Cle) | 10 | +850 |
| Bijan Robinson (Atl) | 10 | +1100 |
| Austin Ekeler (LAC) | 10 | +1400 |
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | 9 | +2500 |
| Najee Harris (Pit) | 8 | +2200 |
| Saquon Barkley (NYG) | 8 | +2000 |
| Josh Jacobs (LV) | 8 | +1300 |
| David Montgomery (Det) | 8 | +2500 |
| Alexander Mattison (Min) | 8 | +2500 |
Missed tackles forced per attempt is a statistic courtesy of Fantasy Points Data.
The Favorites
The top of the rushing touchdown futures board is quite similar to the rushing yards board. Derrick Henry (+450) already has two rushing touchdown crowns from 2019-20 and he’s the favorite to make it a three-pack in 2023. The King has reached double-digit rushing scores in five straight seasons, with 12+ TDs in four of those campaigns. He reached 10 rushing TDs in eight games in 2021 before a foot injury sidelined him until the postseason. Henry had the fourth-most carries from inside the 5-yard line with 15, converting 10 of those opportunities into TDs (67%).
Nick Chubb (+850) is next in line after matching his career high with 12 rushing scores last season. He converted 6-of-12 chances from inside the 5-yard line, losing 4 of those carries (and 2 TDs) to Kareem Hunt. It could be a matter of time before Chubb leads the league in rushing TDs with the most forced missed tackles per attempt (.31) and the most missed tackles forced overall (93). Jonathan Taylor (+1000) is embroiled in a battle with Colts over a new contract, but he previously scored 29 rushing TDs in his first two seasons, including an NFL-best 18 scores in 2021. He had just 8 carries from inside the 5-yard line last season as he battled an ankle injury and a terrible Colts offense. I’d steer clear of betting on Taylor at this number, with the Colts likely to have one of the league’s worst offenses once again and with his hold-in dragging on for the time being.
The Contenders
My favorite bet on the board is, believe it or not, on a quarterback. Jalen Hurts (+1300) finished second in rushing TDs last season with 13 and second over the last two seasons with 23. His 13 rushing scores in 2022 came over just 15 games — he missed two contests for an ankle injury — and he scored 18 times in games when you include his three postseason performances. Hurts has the NFL’s best offensive line in front of him and a brand new backfield behind him with Miles Sanders (+4000) and his 11 rushing TDs leaving for Carolina. Philadelphia’s rugby-style sneak with Hurts is the NFL’s biggest cheat code in short-yardage situations, and the NFL didn’t outlaw the play this off-season as some expected. According to The Athletic, the Eagles converted 29-of-32 (90.6%) of their QB sneaks (2 yards or less to convert) in any situation in the regular season, which was better than any team this millennium.
Hurts finished second with 20 carries from inside the 5-yard line, which placed him behind only the league leader in rushing TDs, Jamaal Williams (+5000), who had 28 goal-line carries. I will place a wager on Williams’ short-yardage replacement, David Montgomery, who has odds of +3000 at Caesars Sportsbook. He’s been stuck in Chicago’s bad offense the last few years, but he’s scored on 12 of his 25 tries from inside the 5-yard line over the last three seasons. Montgomery will jump into the fifth-highest scoring offense (26.6) and play behind what is widely regarded as the second-best offensive line behind the Eagles. Montgomery could be excellent around the goal line after forcing the most missed tackles per attempt (.31) last season.
Dark Horses
I’m not in love with any of the long-shot options, but I’ll point out two I at least gave some thought to. Isiah Pacheco (+3500) handled 55% of Kansas City’s inside-the-5-yard line carries from Week 10 through the postseason. He posted 6 rushing TDs on 207 carries (postseason included) as a seventh-round rookie, and he projects to be the lead runner for the favorite to lead the NFL in scoring at +500. Javonte Williams (+7500) also stood out as being mispriced for his talent level. He’s of course coming back from multiple ligament tears and could be limited early in the season, and he’s scored just four times on 250 career carries to keep me away from this bet.
Best Bets
Jalen Hurts (Phi) most rushing TDs (+1300, DraftKings). Risk one unit to win 13 units. Placed Aug. 4.
David Montgomery (Det) most rushing TDs (+3000, Caesars). Risk .5 units to win 15 units. Placed Aug. 4.
