Arizona Cardinals (0-1, 0-1 ATS) at Las Vegas Raiders (0-1, 0-1), 4:25 p.m.
Brolley’s Cardinals Stats and Trends
Arizona is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games.
The Cardinals are 4-1 to the under in their last five road games.
Kyler Murray got home with 193/2 passing and 5/29 rushing, but he averaged just 5.7 YPA and needed major GTP against the Chiefs to do it. He’s really hurting at receiver right now without DeAndre Hopkins (suspension) and Rondale Moore (hamstring) out of the lineup. Justin Herbert diced up the Raiders for 279/3 passing while averaging 8.2 YPA last week.
Marquise Brown nearly had a disappointing reunion with Kyler in the season opener, but he squeezed out a late touchdown to finish with 4/43/1 receiving on six targets. He played on 95% of the snaps but his 17.6% target share came nowhere close to what was expected with Hopkins and Moore out of the lineup. Chargers receivers managed just 14 receptions on 24 targets against the Chargers last week.
Greg Dortch ran 82% of his routes from the slot with Moore out of the lineup, and he paced the passing attack with 7/63 receiving on nine targets with a 95% route share. Keenan Allen posted 4/66 receiving against the Raiders before leaving in the second quarter with a hamstring injury. A.J. Green managed just 2/13 receiving on four targets and a 70% route share.
Zach Ertz salvaged an otherwise worthless day with a late touchdown in garbage time, finishing with 2/14/1 receiving on four targets. He played just 60% of the snaps and owned a 61% route share so his calf injury clearly limited him despite Trey McBride being a healthy scratch. Chargers TEs combined for 6/78/1 receiving against the Chargers last week.
James Conner had a bell-cow role in the season opener with 72% snap share and a 68% route share despite conceding snaps late in a blowout to Eno Benjamin. He was mostly ineffective with 10/26 rushing (2.6 YPC) and 5/29 receiving (4.8 YPR), but he found the end zone for the 12th time in his last 14 games. He’s now finished under 4.0 YPC in five of his last six contests dating back to last season. The Raiders limited Austin Ekeler to 14/36 rushing and 4/36 receiving last week.
Brolley’s Raiders Stats and Trends
The Raiders are 5-1 to the under in their last six games.
Las Vegas has failed to cover in four straight opportunities as a home favorite.
Derek Carr had an uneven first performance of the season averaging 8.0 YPA with 295/2 passing, but he also tied a career-high with three INTs in the season opener. The Cardinals allowed six touchdowns on six Chiefs’ red-zone trips, and Patrick Mahomes finished with 360/5 passing.
Carr targeted his new receiver (and old friend) Davante Adams a Week 1 high 17 times in their loss to the Chargers. He caught 10 of those looks for 141 yards and a touchdown, and he should feast against a bad Cardinals secondary that allowed a 70% catch rate to Chiefs WRs last week.
Hunter Renfrow disappointed with just 3/21 receiving on six targets in a tough matchup. His 16.2% target share is concerning with Adams soaking up so many targets, but he at least saw an 83% snap share in his first game with Josh McDaniels calling plays. JuJu Smith-Schuster managed 6/79 receiving on eight targets in this matchup last week.
Darren Waller also saw a disappointing 16.2% target share like Renfrow in Week 1, but he turned his six targets into 4/79 receiving thanks to an aDOT of 13.0 yards and 6.8 YAC per reception. The Cardinals gave up the second-fewest FPG to the position last season, but Travis Kelce ripped them for 8/121/1 receiving last week.
The Raiders finished with 43 dropbacks to just 13 handoffs in Week 1 even going against a Chargers defense that allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (118.6) in 2021. Josh Jacobs handled 10 of those carries for 57 yards and he caught his only target for 16 yards. Brandon Bolden is looking unlikely to play because of a hamstring injury, which could open up more opportunities in the passing game for Jacobs and Ameer Abdullah in the passing game. Jacobs led the backfield with a 43% route share last week, followed by Bolden (25%) and Abdullah (14%). This week’s game script could be more conducive for Jacobs as five-point home favorites, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire posted 7/42 rushing and 3/32/2 receiving in Week 1.
Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies
Plays per game: 21st
Pass: 13th | Run: 18th
Plays per game: 21st
Pass: 1st | Run: 32nd
The Raiders didn’t even try to run the ball last week as HC Josh McDaniels routinely schemed up plays for Davante Adams in their opener. Vegas led the league in early-down pass rate (75.5%) in Week 1 and I am very interested to see how this offense looks when they aren’t trailing all game long like last week against the Chargers.
The Cardinals got off to the worst possible start last week, looking totally uncompetitive on both sides of the ball. They have basically the same exact projected game-script here as 6-point road dogs in Vegas. Arizona already plays pretty fast in general, but they will really push the pace here as underdogs. Last year, the Cardinals were the fourth-fastest team when trailing and were sixth-fastest in pace last week.
Overall, this is the third-best game from a combined pace and plays perspective for Week 2 trailing LAC-KC and TEN-BUF.