It was another week of close calls and near-misses, which is pretty much every week. I did at least go 2-for-3 on game picks. I’m still looking to get on a prop hot streak, though.
Last Week’s ATS Record: 2-1
Best Bets ATS Record (Season): 13-10
Totals Record: 3-3
New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts OVER 45 points — Coming off their bye and likely adding some new wrinkles to their offense, I believe the Patriots will do more in the passing game than people expect. I also think the Colts offense is designed well and Carson Wentz has played well, so this should be a competitive game with 4-5 TDs scored at least.
Last week: 8-8
Player Props Record: 104-95
- Marvin Jones OVER 44.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)
- Trevor Lawrence OVER 29.5 passing attempts (-115 DK)
- Trevor Lawrence OVER 209.5 passing yards (-115 DK)
- Jared Goff OVER 207.5 passing yards (-115 DK)
- Myles Gaskin OVER 54.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)
- Brandin Cooks OVER 58.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)
- AJ Green OVER 54.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 49.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)
- Gabriel Davis OVER 41.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)
- DeVante Parker OVER 57.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)
- Brandon Aiyuk OVER 54.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)
- Russell Gage OVER 54.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)
Rhamondre Stephenson OVER 70.5 rushing yards (-115 DK) — This number was a little lower on Friday, but I’m still all-in on Stephenson with 15+ carries damn near a lock. He’s an incredibly impressive runner, considering he wasn’t viewed as a stud coming out. His excellent vision, contact balance, and quick feet make him an extremely productive player, and he’s capable of ripping off a 20+ yard run at any given moment. I have him with 18/83 rushing, which is 4.6 YPC. He’s at 4.5 in his last four and Indy in that span is giving up 5.0.
Hunter Henry OVER 25.5 receiving yards (-115 DK) — This is a bit of a leap of faith, especially with Jonnu Smith coming on a little, but it’s all about the matchup. Indy is giving up a healthy 7/82 receiving to TEs in their last four games and the seventh-most receiving yards to TEs the last eight weeks. I see at least one big play down the middle to Henry in this one.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire OVER 58.5 rushing yards (-115 DK) — I definitely like this one a lot, since the Chargers have been vulnerable all year on the ground, and the situation is perfect for KC to commit to CEH running the rock.
Travis Kelce OVER 67.5 receiving yards (-115 DK) — The matchup should dictate that this is a big Kelce game, and since the Chargers are capable of making this a shootout, I think the noted Charger killer could have his best game of the season.
Josh Palmer OVER 14.5 receiving yards (-115 DK) — This line makes no sense, since Palmer has been over this number in six of his last seven games. Granted, he doesn’t get a lot of targets, but I really liked this guy as a prospect in the off-season, and I thought he looked great last week. So I’m willing to bet he can basically make one catch for over 14 yards or catch two balls.