Hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday yesterday. We have one more bite at the College Football player prop apple as we’re in the final week of the regular season. You have to make it count. Let’s dive in!
Aidan Robbins Over 43.5 Rush Yards (Prizepicks)
Did these books not see Aidan Robbins rumble for 182 yards on 22 carries last week against a very good Oklahoma run defense? This line has moved up from 39.5 yards since opening, and I suspect it will take another 10-yard jump before this game kicks off. The UNLV transfer has hit this mark in four of the last five games, with the only miss being at West Virginia in a 37-7 blowout where BYU was forced to stop running the football. Robbins’ matchup this week is against an Oklahoma State that is average across the board defending the run, ranked 72nd in EPA per run play. We did see a backfield split earlier in the year between Robbins and true freshman LJ Martin, but that has since vanished. 59-9 rushing attempt advantage in favor of Robbins over the last five games.
Eli Sanders Under 47.5 Rushing Yards (Underdog)
RB, Iowa State
The Cyclones are a terrible rushing offense, ranked 129th in success rate and 129th in EPA per run play as the offensive line under the current coaching staff has been a constant issue for the last 3-4 seasons. Iowa State is coming off its worst rushing performance of the season last week, accumulating a grand total of just nine yards on the ground against Texas. Kansas State ranks just two spots below the Longhorns in rush defense within the Big 12, allowing 129.4 yards per game. So not only do we have a poor rushing offense here facing a stout defensive front, but we’re also looking at a potential three-way split in the backfield between Eli Sanders, freshman Abu Sama III, and Cartevious Norton. This number also dropped to 45.5 yards on Prizepicks so we know the direction this prop line will move.
Devaughn Vele Under 80.5 Receiving Yards (Prizepicks)
This spread moved three points in the direction of under for the game total and in favor of Colorado overnight. Why? Rumors swirling that Utah could be down to their fifth-string quarterback, who is a walk-on with what looks to be a man bun in his profile picture on the school website. This is not official, but the rumors are swirling on the Utah message boards, and I think it’s safe to say we have confirmation, given the line movement on the game total. Our current projection for Devaughn Vele is at 75 yards, and that is with current starter Bryson Barnes still being listed as the starter. That line for Vele will be cut in half if Barnes is unavailable to play, and wouldn’t be surprised at all if Utah works in the wildcat with multiple running backs in the backfield as they’ve done previously this season. FWIW - Could also pair Vele with Bryson Barnes unders, though that is trending towards a DNP.
TreVeyon Henderson Over 17.5 Rushing Attempts (Underdog)
RB, Ohio State
Going back to the well here with TreVeyon Henderson rushing attempt props, but this time around, in the opposite direction. Same reasoning as last week, just inverted. In the two competitive matchups Henderson played in coming back from injury against Wisconsin and Rutgers, the junior running back logged 24 and 22 attempts, respectively. We’re expecting a similar workload this week in The Game against Michigan, with both teams playing their starters the entirety of the contest - something we can always say for players on both teams. We’re also aided by the fact Ohio State doesn’t have the depth at running back it had coming into the year with Miyan Williams out for the season due to injury. Expect Ohio State to lean on their star running back on Saturday.
Cameron Skattebo Over 11.5 Fantasy Points (Prizepicks)
RB, Arizona State
Let's talk about all the ways in which this over in fantasy points can hit for Cameron Skattebo. (1) Skattebo is the team’s leading rusher with 678 yards on the ground, having scored a rushing touchdown in eight of the 11 games played this season. (2) Skattebo is third on the team in receiving yards (286) with 24 receptions on 33 targets. (3) Skattebo is one of the most versatile offensive players in the country. Not only running and receiving, but the senior running back has also thrown nine passes in the last two games as the Sun Devils have been featuring him in the wildcat with the quarterback position in a state of flux. It won’t help his fantasy production, but just a cool nugget that Skattebo also has eight punts this season. This is a tough matchup against Arizona, but there are numerous ways in which Skattebo can clear this number, and I have a 15.3-point projection for him this week.
Tulane QB Michael Pratt over 19.5 fantasy points
Oklahoma WR Drake Stoops under 84.5 receiving yards
Georgia Tech QB Haynes King over 166.5 passing yards
Indiana WR DeQuece Carter over 33.5 receiving yards
Arizona RB Jonah Coleman over 11.5 fantasy points