Time sure does fly, as we have just two weeks left of the college football season. And we need a bounce-back performance after last week’s underwhelming results. Let’s dive in!
Tez Johnson Over 5 Receptions (Prizepicks)
Johnson has been one of the top college fantasy receivers in the country over the last five weeks, particularly in the last two games, with over 300 receiving yards on four touchdowns on 24 targets. The former Troy transfer has cleared this line with ease in each of the previous five games, and no surprise to anyone that he’s got an apparent connection with quarterback Bo Nix as Johnson is the adoptive brother of the Oregon QB1. What we like most about Johnson this week is that the Oregon rotation at receiver has been diminished, with Johnson now second on the team in routes run during the span, behind only Troy Franklin. We have a projection of seven catches for Johnson this week, with a favorable matchup against an Arizona State secondary allowing the 17th most fantasy points in the country to receivers.
TreVeyon Henderson Under 16.5 Rushing Attempts (Underdog)
RB, Ohio State
The only way in which this number goes over is if Minnesota, a 27.5-point underdog on the road, keeps this game relatively competitive. Ohio State does not have the depth behind Henderson it had when the season started after Miyan Williams was lost for the season due to injury. And with Ohio State’s biggest game of the season on the horizon, priority No. 1 aside from winning the game is to keep its RB1 healthy. Henderson has failed to clear this line in five of seven games played this season, and if Ohio State gets up big in the first half (expected), we anticipate seeing plenty of backups Chip Trayanum and Xavier Johnson on Saturday. Ohio State had 32 rushing attempts in the blowout of Michigan State last week — just 13 went to Henderson.
Deacon Hill Under 127.5 Passing Yards (Prizepicks)
Do we automatically believe that Iowa has fixed its long-standing woes throwing the football because of one game? No. Hill soared over his prop line last week, throwing for a career-best 223 yards in the win over Rutgers. That number was more than Hill threw over the prior three weeks combined. The road/home splits are what intrigues us most here with the Iowa quarterback. Away from Kinnick Stadium, Hill is averaging just 10.3 pass attempts per game and almost 60 fewer yards than what he averages at home. Too much prior evidence here to suggest Hill will go under this number, and we have a 122-yard projection for this week.
Daijun Edwards Over 75.5 Rushing Yards (Prizepicks)
If you prefer to play fantasy points props over yardage, we also like the over at 15.5 fantasy points, as he’s cleared that mark in all but two games this season. I will note that this line did start at 86.5 yards to begin the week, but we’ll buy the dip by facing a Tennessee defense that was obliterated last week by the Missouri running game, with Cody Schrader piling up over 200 yards on the ground against the Vols. Edwards has found the end zone twice in half of his games played this season. The Georgia run game is also finding traction in the second half of the year, ranking 12th in success rate and 7th in EPA per run play.
Colston Loveland Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (Prizepicks)
The game script hurt us last week in the Penn State matchup. There is no way to predict that Michigan would run the ball 27 straight times. I’m not expecting that same outcome this time around in Michigan’s annual tune-up matchup for The Game next week against Ohio State. Look for the Wolverines passing game to get back on track here, including the sophomore tight end who hit this mark in the three games prior to last week. Loveland challenges defenses down the field, averaging over 13 yards per catch in six of his last seven games. The Maryland defense has also struggled to defend the tight end position this season, allowing four players to score more than 10 fantasy points against them.
Kansas State RB Treshaun Ward under 52.5 rushing yards
South Carolina RB Mario Anderson under 83.5 rushing yards
Michigan RB Donovan Edwards over 16.5 receiving yards
Indiana TE Trey Walker over 9.5 receiving yards