Here’s my very quick look at the week.
If you want more information and analysis, you can always read our Week 17 Game Hubs.
Atlanta Falcons (7-8) at Buffalo Bills (9-6)
Players I like more than usual: Devin Singletary, Josh Allen
Players I’m neutral on: Kyle Pitts, Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis
Players I like less than usual: Cordarrell Patterson, Russell Gage, Matt Ryan
Longshot Plays: Cole Beasley
Notes: We’re down to like Kyle Pitts only for the Falcons with this tough matchup and with Cordarrelle Patterson slowing down. Patterson’s fallen below 9 FP in consecutive games and he’s up against a Bills’ defense that’s giving up the ninth-fewest FPG (21.1) to RBs. Russell Gage’s little run is over and he’s unlikely to do major damage in this tough spot. He does have 4+ catches in six straight games and could certainly get another 5-6 year with 10+ FP. As for Pitts, HC Arthur Smith would love to get the rookie TE to 1000 receiving yards this week with 51+ yards, but it’s still a tough matchup, so I’m not expecting a big day. Pitts also has a chance to break the all-time yardage record for a rookie TE.
Despite some potential issues due to Atlanta’s coverage, Josh Allen is still the clear QB1 this week with the highest floor and Allen carried the Bills last week and played well on film. The Falcons defense is giving up the third-most FPG (20.2) to QBs this season, but we should see stud corner AJ Terrell on Stefon Diggs about half the time, so I opted out of featuring Diggs in my DFS article on the site. It’s tough to figure out which of the secondary receivers are looking good, but the matchup is pretty good for Cole Beasley in the slot, where Detroit’s Amon-Ra St. Brown crushed them with 9/91/1 receiving on 11 targets last week. And you can’t use Emmanuel Sanders. I’d also be skeptical of Isaiah McKenzie, so that leaves Gabriel Davis as the best reach play. Just keep in mind he’s coming off Covid, though, so I’d rather not use him. Dawson Knox has fallen below 40+ receiving in four of his last five, but he has 4 TDs in that span, so I’m using him and hoping for the best in a so-so matchup by the numbers. I’m seemingly wrong about Devin Singletary about 80% of the time, but all signs do point to Singletary actually taking control of this backfield and the Falcons are giving up 136.9 scrimmage yards per game and the ninth-most FPG (25.6) to RBs this season.
New York Giants (4-11) at Chicago Bears (5-10)
Players I like more than usual: David Montgomery, Darnell Mooney
Players I’m neutral on: Cole Kmet, Saquon Barkley
Players I like less than usual: Allen Robinson, Evan Engram, Kenny Golladay
Longshot Plays: None
Notes: Guys, the Giants are dead. Saquon Barkley has seen 16+ touches in five straight games, but he looks bad and has been outplayed by Devontae Booker for weeks. The Bears got run on last week by Rashad Penny, who posted 17/135/1 rushing, but Barkley is just a meh RB3 right now. It’ll be Mike Glennon trying to get the ball to Kenny Golladay and Evan Engram, who are their only healthy and viable receivers. You could do worse than Engram as a TE reach, at least.
For the Bears, you’re looking good if you have David Montgomery, even though he’s been a little underwhelming. He has 16+ touches in seven straight and 5+ catches in four straight with a good matchup this week. Over the last four weeks, RBs are getting 27.5 carries per game and 5.8 targets, so Montgomery could get 25+ opportunities. Andy Dalton can also help stabilize the offense a little against a Giants defense that does not rush the passer well, and I do like my guy Darnell Mooney. The Giants CBs are solid, but beatable, as we saw last week with DeVonta Smith, who got mostly James Bradberry for 5/80/1 receiving last week. In Dalton’s last two starts in Weeks 13-14, Mooney’s got a solid 10/150 on 15 targets and was the WR19 for those two weeks. Allen Robinson should return to the lineup this week after missing the last two games with COVID, but he could still be limited as he said he lost 10 pounds from the virus. Cole Kmet gets 3+ catches pretty much every week, but he still hasn’t scored. Still, he’s seen five targets in every game since Week 12, and Dalton Schultz went for 8/67/1 receiving against them in Week 15, so it’s not hopeless for Kmet.
Kansas City Chiefs (11-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (9-6)
Players I like more than usual: Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Darrell Williams, Tyler Boyd
Players I’m neutral on: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Joe Mixon
Players I like less than usual: None of note
Longshot Plays: None of note
Notes: There’s a lot to be said for having Patrick Mahomes, a former MVP, playing well lately, given all the issues in the league with Covid, injuries, and bad weather. Mahomes has played a lot better on film the last 3-4 games, and he’s much more in control and settled in the pocket. He’s thrown for multiple scores and he’s reached 20+ FP in three straight games, and the Bengals are giving up the fourth-most passing yards per game (270.1) to QBs. Travis Kelce is a risky DFS play coming off Covid, but Kelce’s matchup is great, and I expect Tyreek Hill to bounce back after last week’s poor game coming back from Covid. Darrel Williams is looking good with Clyde Edwards-Helaire ruled out. Williams could give up over 40% of the snaps to Derrick Gore and maybe even Jerrick McKinnon, but the Bengals are potent on offense themselves, so Williams could easily get 4-5 catches against a Bengals defense that’s giving up the fourth-most catches per game (6.7). If he scores, you’re good.
It’s a tougher matchup for Joe Burrow and the Bengals passing game, but you can’t sit anyone, really, given how hot they are. That includes Tyler Boyd, who should have the best matchup. Boyd is hardly a must-start, but he’s coming on strong now with double-digit FP in five of his last six games and the Chiefs give up the eight-most FPG to slot receivers (it’s mostly CB L’Jarius Sneed, who has been very generous to WRs). Tee Higgins is averaging a whopping 7/117/.8 per game in his last four, good for 22+ FP, so you can’t sit him. Ja’Marr Chase saw double-digit targets last week for the first time since Week 9, and you can’t sit him, either. Joe Mixon is coming off his second-best fantasy performance of the season, and the Chiefs are giving up a healthy 4.5 YPC to RBs this season.
Las Vegas Raiders (8-7) at Indianapolis Colts (9-6) Players I like more than usual: Jonathan Taylor, Foster Moreau
Players I’m neutral on: Michael Pittman, Josh Jacobs, Hunter Renfrow, Derek Carr
Players I like less than usual: Carson Wentz
Longshot Plays: Mo Alie-Cox (if Doyle is out)
Notes: I thought Josh Jacobs looked great last week, and he’s a solid play with a 65% snap share in six straight games, but it’s a tough matchup. Indy’s giving up the fifth-fewest FPG (20.3) to RBs this season. On the bright side, Chase Edmonds (24/127/1 scrimmage) and Leonard Fournette (24/131/4) have had big games recently against the Colts. Derek Carr is so annoying, and he’s now thrown for 1 TD or fewer in six straight. I do like Foster Moreau, who is starting to heat up with Carr looking for him often. Indy has allowed an individual TE to reach 12+ FP in seven of their last eight games. Indy is giving up the second-most targets per game, the third-most receptions per game, and the fifth-most yards and FP per game to TEs. Hunter Renfrow is going to get plenty of looks, that we know. I think slot corner Kenny Moore is great, but he does give up production, so Renfrow should be fine, but I would not expect a big game. Zay Jones has flirted with viability lately with 5+ catches in four of his last five. He’s not a great desperation play with the tougher matchup, though.
Assuming all goes well Sunday morning, Carson Wentz is set to start, and he is set to start as of 10am ET. He stacks up well with all QBs this week with a lot of skank in the bottom half of the ranks, but he’s still risky with the potential covid issues. Jonathan Taylor is going to be busy. The Raiders didn’t get run on last week byt the Broncos, but Denver didn’t have many RB attempts (14), and both backs were banged up. The Raiders are giving up the third-most FPG (27.7) to RBs this season. It’s a 150+ yard, 2 TD potential blowup spot for Taylor. You feel better about Michael Pittman with Wentz expected to go, but there is more downside than usual if Wentz isn’t right. Pittman did look good last week, at least. I like Mo Alie-Cox as a reach play but ONLY if Jack Doyle is inactive. I thought he'd be out, but Doyle did work on Friday. MOC has 4 TDs on just 37 targets this season, and it’s a great spot to make a big play and/or score, as the Raiders have major issues at safety and give up the third-most TDs per game (.7) to TEs.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-13) at New England Patriots (9-6)
Players I like more than usual: Damien Harris
Players I’m neutral on: Jakobi Meyers, Hunter Henry
Players I like less than usual: Trevor Lawrence, Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault
Longshot Plays: Mac Jones, Kendrick Bourne, Dare Ogunbowale, Laquon Treadwell
Notes: The Jags are in brutal shape with James Robinson out and no TEs. Trevor Lawrence is dying, but he has to throw it to someone, and I’d guess it’s Laquon Treadwell. The Jags are down all their TEs (but MANHERTZ) as of Saturday and it looks like they’ll have to use some guy named “Matt Sokol.” Additionally, it would make sense for the Pats to travel top corner JC Jackson on Marvin Jones, and Laviska Shenault is just coming off the Covid list and is no lock to play or be effective if he does play. Treadwell now has posted five straight games with 4+ catches and 50+ receiving yards. I actually think Dare Ogunbowale is pretty good, and he’s a good receiver, so I can see him doing something similar to last week, when he put up 17/57/1 rushing and 2/15 receiving on four targets with an 82% snap share. I doubt they give a lot of snaps to one of their other backs, but I doubt it.
I’m in no hurry to use Mac Jones, whose upside is limited, but I do think he can surprise with a nice game here. Jones needs a big bounceback game after logging a couple of so-so ones, and the Jags just allowed another rookie QB in Zach Wilson to post 23.2 FP last week, and another rookie in Davis Mills posted 209/2 passing against the Jags in Week 15. I think Mac can get 16 FP here. Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne aren’t terrible options if you need them, especially Bourne. Nelson Agholor is out, which helps. Hunter Henry has been really tough to handicap, but he’s finished with fewer than 10 FP in six of his last eight, so he’s a desperation play only. Jacksonville has allowed just one TE (George Kittle) to reach double-digit FP since their Week 7 bye. Damien Harris looked great last week and he will lead their rushing charge, plus Rhamondre Stephenson is coming off Covid, so he could be limited, helping Harris. Stephenson is a desperation play only. Jets rookie Michael Carter finished with 16/118 rushing in this matchup last week, and they’ve given up 100+ rushing yards to individual RBs in four of their last seven.
Carolina Panthers (5-10) at New Orleans Saints (7-8) Players I like more than usual: DJ Moore, Alvin Kamara
Players I’m neutral on: Robby Anderson
Players I like less than usual: Taysom Hill, Chubba Hubbard, Ameer Abudullah, Sam Darnold
Longshot Plays: Marquez Callaway
Notes: D.J. Moore looked great last week and he was not on the injury report this week with his hamstring, so even with Sam Darnold and Cam Newton in the mix, Moore’s tough to sit this week for all the marbles. Moore did drop 8/79/1 receiving on 11 targets on the Saints back in Week 2 with Darnold, and he’s hit 79+ yards with 5 TDs in his last five games against the Saints. You can’t use Cam or Darnold, but Robby Anderson is at least getting targets now. He has 30 looks in his last three. Forget it with Chuba Hubbard in this nasty matchup. Once again, Ameer Abudullah is the better option which isn’t saying anything at all positive.
I wish I knew how to handle, who is coming back from Covid and was, from all accounts, unvaccinated. That’s a little scary. Carolina is allowing the fourth-fewest FPG (16.2) to QBs, but they at least won’t have stud CB Stefon Gilmore, which helps Marquez Callaway. Callaway has been solid the last two weeks with 10/158 receiving on 14 targets, so he’s not an awful desperation play. TreQuan Smith is out. Adam Troutman will be the top TE, but he’s very risky and is also coming off Covid. Alvin Kamara has been the RB44 the last two weeks, and he put up only 8/5 rushing and 4/25 receiving on six targets in the first meeting. The Panthers have allowed five RBs to post between 13-16.6 FP in their last three games, so he’s not hopeless, and Kamara should get 20+ touches. Mark Ingram is not expected to play, which helps.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-4) at New York Jets (4-11) Players I like more than usual: Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Brown, Ronald Jones, Michael Carter
Players I’m neutral on: None of note
Players I like less than usual: None of note
Longshot Plays: Notes: Braxton Berrios
Tom Brady’s value is a little tough to gauge until we know if he’ll have Mike Evans and Antonio Brown, but both are expected to play (check inactives, and our projections). It’s a smash matchup for Antonio Brown, but he’s dealing with a setback from his ankle/heel injury. But AB worked Saturday and is seemingly good to go. If he does, and especially if Evans does not, you probably have to use him after Brady targeted him on a ridiculous 50% of his 30 passes last week. Rob Gronkowski has come up extremely small the last two weeks with Cameron Brate vulturing TDs. But this is a very good matchup for a TE, and the Jets are giving up a healthy 11.9 YPR and the ninth-most FPG (14.5) to TEs this season. Ronald Jones drives me nuts, and he almost didn't come through in a sweet matchup last week, but he did get a solid 20/65/1 rushing and 2/16 receiving. This matchup is even better than last week’s, as the Jets are allowing a league-high 173.6 scrimmage yards per game to RBs this season. If Jones flops, that’ll mean Ke’Shawn Vaughn busted out, and I would not be surprised at all.
Zach Wilson won’t have Elijah Moore and most likely won’t have Jamison Crowder, so we know what’s coming; Braxton Berrios is doing something. The Jets TEs have covid and their only other viable receiver is Keelan Cole. If you’re using Cole, you need to re-evaluate your life.
Michael Carter is coming off season-highs in carries (16), rushing yards (118), YPC (7.4), and snap share (74%), and Tevin Coleman is on the covid list. I should mention the Bucs are down a ton of key defenders like Jason Pierre-Paul, Shaq Barrett, Mike Edwards, Sean Murphy-Bunting, and Jamel Dean. Carter has been a non-factor in the passing game with just 4/10 receiving in his last three games, thanks to Wilson, but I think he can produce with a lot of touches in this one.
Miami Dolphins (8-7) at Tennessee Titans (10-5)
Players I like more than usual: Jaylen Waddle, AJ Brown
Players I’m neutral on: Tua Tagovailoa, DeVante Parker, D’Onta Foreman
Players I like less than usual: Mike Gesicki, Ryan Tannehill
Longshot Plays: None of note
Notes: I’m not really feeling Tua Tagovailoa as a good play, especially since it’s raining in Tennessee, but he’s been productive and you can do a lot worse, plus the Titans are giving up the 10th-most FPG (18.9) to QBs this season and let Jimmy Garoppolo throw for 322/1 last week. Jaylen Waddle has been incredible and is a must-start. Deebo Samuel hit the Titans for 9/159 receiving and 5/32 rushing in this matchup last week, and the Titans are still giving up the most FPG (26.2) to slot receivers the last eight weeks. I really don’t trust DeVante Parker after last week’s goose egg, but I’m sure he’ll get some looks if you’re desperate. You’d have to be quite desperate to start Mike Gesicki, who hasn’t scored since Week 7 and who has hit double-digit FP just twice in his last eight games. It’s also a bad matchup even George Kittle could overcome last week. Miami’s backfield was predictably a mess last week, so I’d want to find another option. The Titans are nasty against the run right now and are giving up just 3.7 YPC and the second-fewest rushing yards per game (64.1) to RBs.
He’s dealing with a new calf issue and will see tough matchups on the outside against Xavien Howard and Byron Jones, but you have to start AJ Brown unless you’re loaded. Brown carried the offense last week after a slow start in the game and he had a ridiculous 55% target share, which may have to be the case this week again. They did get Nick Westbrook-Ikhine back from the Covid list, but he can’t be considered. Ryan Tannehill has been a flat fantasy option all year, and the Dolphins are giving up the seventh-fewest FPG (17.1) to QBs this season, so there’s not much to like with Tannehill. Like Miami’s backfield, the Titans’ backfield is tough to deal with. The only option who can legitimately be used is D’Onta Foreman, who could be helped by the Titans being three-point home favorites. Still, the Dolphins are giving up 4.3 YPC but just the third-fewest FPG (20.0) to RBs this season.
Philadelphia Eagles (8-7) at Washington Football Team (6-9)
Players I like more than usual: Jalen Hurts, Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert
Players I’m neutral on: Jordan Howard,
Players I like less than usual: Terry McLaurin
Longshot Plays: Boston Scott, John Bates
Notes: Jalen Hurts posted only 2/7 rushing with no designed runs last week, but we do think he will run more this week, and he practiced fully Thursday and Friday, so his ankle is feeling better. Hurts went off with 296/1 passing and 8/38/2 rushing for 29.6 FP just two weeks ago, and in between the FT got crushed by Dallas for 440/5 passing last week. TFT won’t have top corner William Jackson, which bodes well for DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert went nuts in this matchup two weeks ago. Goedert, who had a TD nullified last week and is always open, ripped TFT for 7/135 receiving on nine targets just two weeks ago, and Dalton Schultz also ripped them last week for 8/81/1 receiving for 22.2 FP. Smith had just 3/40 receiving on five targets two weeks ago in this matchup, but his big game last week helps my confidence in him. Jordan Howard is a risky play, and that’s assuming he goes, which was expected as of Sunday early morning. Meanwhile, Boston Scott looks to play a big role in a run-heavy offense that is rolling over everyone. Miles Sanders is out, Howard is still questionable, and Kenny Gainwell has not been much of a factor. Scott could still come up small, but the argument for him is compelling. TFT is hurting with various injuries and poor QB play, and they give up an uncharacteristic 4.6 YPC to RBs the last four weeks. Philadelphia’s RBs tagged them for 200 rushing yards (on 33 carries) just two weeks ago.
I’m out on the FT this week. Taylor “Hospital Ball” Heinicke stinks and may not even be a lock to finish the game, as backup Kyle Allen has been needed to come in out of the bullpen the last two weeks. Terry McLaurin has now failed to reach double-digit FP in five straight and he put up only 2/51 receiving on four targets in this matchup two weeks ago with Darius Slay in coverage. TMC basically caught one hospital ball down the field in that game, and suffered a concussion on the play. You can’t use veteran Ricky Seals-Jones like the old days (Oct, Nov) because rookie John Bates is getting chances to play in the final games of the year, and he finished with 2/45/1 receiving on three targets on 75% of the snaps last week. He was the guy, and the Eagles are giving up a league-high 17.8 FPG to TEs this season after Evan Engram posted 4/17/1 receiving against them last week. Bates is a viable reach on the low-end, but there are several of them this week (like the LAC’s Stephen Alexander). Antonio Gibson is out, so it’s a potential mess in the backfield with Jaret Patterson, Jonathan Williams, and possibly Wendell Smallwood. Patterson is still the guy I’d try out, but I’d prefer not to go here.
Denver Broncos (7-8) at Los Angeles Chargers (8-7)
Players I like more than usual: Noah Fant, Keenan Allen
Players I’m neutral on: Javonte Williams, Austin Eckler, Justin Herbet
Players I like less than usual: Melvin Gordon, Courtland Sutton, Mike Williams
Longshot Plays: Stephen Anderson
Notes: The Broncos are obviously in horrible shape at receiver, and their QB Drew Lock is also horrible, so this is an avoid in a tougher matchup. Tim Patrick and Jerry Jeudy are out, but Courtland Sutton should play. Lock was too wretched last week for me to endorse him. But if desperate, the WR issues should help Noah Fant’s chances. Of course, they also help Albert Okwuegbunam’s chances. Fant at least has 3+ catches in six straight. I may be overrating Javonte Williams, who is playing with a tricky knee, but Melvin Gordon is also banged up and he put up 7/-4 rushing last week. Obviously, the Broncos have major issues at WR, so it would behoove them to use the explosive Williams more in the passing game, and to stay as committed to the run as possible. Javonte put up 14/54/1 rushing and 3/57 in this matchup in late November, and the shaky Chargers run defense just allowed Rex Burkhead of all people to go off with 22/149/2 rushing for 28.9 FP last week.
The matchup isn’t great, but you feel great having a young stud for the ship if you have
Justin Herbert. Herbert completed 28/44 passes for 303 yards, two TDs, and two INTs and he added 4/36 rushing when he played Denver in late November, so he’s been okay against Vic Fangio’s offense. Keenan Allen posted 7/85 receiving on 10 targets when he met the Broncos earlier this season, and he’s in your lineup with Bryce Callahan on the Covid list. Mike Williams will return to the lineup but he was unvaccinated and had COVID, so I’d consider all other options. Back in Week 12, Williams managed just 4/39 receiving on eight targets. I’d love to recommend Josh Palmer, but that’s hard to do unless you’re talking deep reach, with Williams back. Jared Cook is on the Covid list and Donald Parham is out, so if very desperate, Stephen Anderson has played and had 2/34 last week. He could easily get an endzone target or two from Herbert. Austin Ekeler will return to the lineup, and while his COVID situation is a concern, he seems to be good to go. Ekeler had 6/68/1 receiving and 12/31 rushing in this matchup in late November.
Houston Texans (4-11) at San Francisco 49ers (8-7) Players I like more than usual: Elijah Mitchell, Brandin Cooks
Players I’m neutral on: Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Rex Burkhead
Players I like less than usual: Brandon Aiyuk
Longshot Plays: Nico Collins
Notes: Davis Mills continues to play well and give his receivers a chance to produce, so Brandin Cooks is certainly a worthy play, just keep in mind he’s coming off the Covid list. It’s a great matchup on the outside, though. I’d rather not try out rookie Nico Collins, whose production has been erratic, unless desperate. If so, it’s a good matchup for the WRs on the outside. That’s it for the Texans other than Rex Burkhead, who did go off last week. I’d have to say that fact means absolutely nothing this week, so don’t go out of your way to “stick with the hot hand” with Rex.
Rookie Trey Lance has reportedly improved this fall/winter and he will have a full complement of weapons to work with. I think the 49ers will run the ball well and open things up nicely for Lance, who in his lone start early in the season took off and ran a whopping 16 times for 89 rushing yards. All we need from him in one passing TD, and we’re probably good for 15+ FP. I do worry about Deebo Samuel’s production taking a hit with Lance at QB, which applies to Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle as well. Luckily for Kittle the Texans are traditionally bad against the TE and this year is no exception. The Texans are stingy by the numbers against WRs, but they’re certainly beatable. Elijah Mitchell put up 45.2 FP in his last two full games in Weeks 12-13 and while there is some risk coming off his layoff and concussion, there’s also the potential for a blowup game with 100+ yards and 1-2 TDs. I’m fully expecting a 20+ point game from Mitchell.
Los Angeles Rams (8-7) at Baltimore Ravens (8-7) Players I like more than usual: Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham, Van Jefferson, Sony Michell, Rashad Bateman
Players I’m neutral on: Mark Andrews
Players I like less than usual: Tyler Higbee
Longshot Plays: Tyler Huntley
Notes: Matthew Stafford really crapped the bed last week, but the Ravens were non-competitive covering the forward pass last week and are still rolling with a depleted secondary that last week lost one of its top remaining CBs in Anthony Averett. Obviously, Joe Burrow shredded this secondary last week for 525/4 passing, and Aaron Rodgers went for 268/3 passing against them in Week 15. Staford’s top-3 WRs should give this secondary a ton of problems, with Van Jefferson and Odell Beckham both looking at a possible big-play TD. Sony Michel leads the NFL in rushing over the last four weeks, even over Jonathan Taylor, and he’s averaging 22.3/105.8 rushing per game with two scores in that span. Cam Akers is not expected to play, so despite the tougher matchup, Michel is a mortal lock to deliver as long as he scores. Tyler Higbee isn’t hopeless and it’s a decent matchup for him as the Ravens have been shaky against TEs all year.
It looks like Lamar Jackson is out, so it’s likely Tyler Huntley. I can absolutely back Huntley as a solid play with only 16-18 FP easily obtained. Between his rushing, MANDREWS, and Rashod Bateman, Huntley should be fine. Assuming Marquise Brown goes, I’d guess Brown will see more of Jalen Ramsey than Bateman. Bateman last week played on 81% of the snaps compared to just 5% for Sammy Watkins, and he put up 7/108 receiving on 8 targets in Week 14 with Tyler Huntley, who is a good bet to start Week 17. Also, K.J. Osborn popped with 5/68/1 receiving on seven targets in this matchup last week. Devonta Freeman has really slowed down, so he’s a desperation play only.
Arizona Cardinals (10-5) at Dallas Cowboys (11-4)
Players I like more than usual: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Zach Ertz
Players I’m neutral on: Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Kyler Murray, Christian Kirk, Chase Edmunds
Players I like less than usual: James Conner, Dalton Schultz
Longshot Plays: None of note
Notes: This is a nasty matchup for Kyler Murray, but what can you do? I’d use him and hope for the best. Dallas does play a lot of man to man, which opens up rushing opportunities for Kyler. He was bad last week but still decent for fantasy thanks to his rushing. Christian Kirk has a WR-best 24% target share in their last five games, so he’s the best option. He did score 2 TDs in this matchup last year, FWIW. The Cowboys are giving up a generous 14.4 YPR to WRs this season. A.J. Green is still getting open, but he had just a 33-yard catch last week on three targets, so he’s hard to back. Outside WR Antonie Wesley has seen 12 targets in the last two games, but he’s probably a TD-or-bust guy. Zach Ertz has been the biggest beneficiary in DeAndre Hopkins’ injury, and he’s Kyler’s checkdown guy, and Kyler is checking it down a lot, totaling 14/128 receiving on 24 targets the last two weeks. James Conner is likely trending toward a return, so neither he nor Chase Edmonds are locks in a tougher matchup. If Conner is out, Edmonds is locked in as an RB1 as the team’s bellcow back if Conner can’t play again.
Dak Prescott was a different guy last week, dropping 330 yards (8.5 YPA) and 4 TDs on TFT and now he gets another plus matchup in Dallas. The Cardinals have given up multiple TD passes in four straight games, and they will be down one of their top corners in Marco Wilson. I like Dak to do a lot of damage again this week, so CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Michael Gallup are looking better than usual. Especially Lamb, as Cooper Kupp (13/123/1 receiving) and Amon-Ra St. Brown have gone off in that matchup in the last three weeks. I thought Ezekiel Elliott looked good last week, and he showed a little more burst. He’s always better in Dallas, so he might have 2-TD upside again this week. Dalton Schultz was back last week, but this is a nasty matchup. The Cardinals are allowing the second-fewest FPG (7.7) to TEs this season.
Detroit Lions (2-12-1) at Seattle Seahawks (5-10)
Players I like more than usual: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Rashad Penny, Gerald Everett, Tyler Lockett
Players I’m neutral on: D’Andre Swift, DK Metcalf, Russell Wilson,
Players I like less than usual: Josh Reynolds
Longshot Plays: None of note
Notes: It’s expected that Jared Goff will miss this week, so we’re back to Tim Boyle. Boyle was at least a lot better last week, and he didn’t hurt Amon-Ra St. Brown, who posted 9/91/1 on 11 targets last week against the Falcons. The Seahawks are giving up the eighth-most catches per game (13.3) to WRs this season but they are getting crushed inside, so it’s actually a great matchup for Amon-Ra. Seattle gives up the fourth-most FPG to slot receivers the last eight weeks. Josh Reynolds has been on the covid list and is off the radar. D’Andre Swift will see his first action since he injured his shoulder on Thanksgiving Day, and according to his HC we can expect a lot of work. He’s obviously very talented, so I’ve considered the upside and the downside for his ranking and projection on the site. We could see some sort of an ugly three-man rotation this week with Swift leading the way, and the Seahawks are giving up the second-most FPG (29.9) to RBs this season.
Rashad Penny is looking good here, as Detroit is allowing the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs (+5.2) and the fifth-most rushing yards per game (112.4) to RBs this season.this season. Penny averages 19.2 FPG in the six career games with 12+ touches. With Jared Goff doubtful, Penny’s upside is undeniable. It’s certainly a beatable matchup for Russell Wilson, even though the Lions have given up multiple TD passes to individual QBs just five times this season. I like Tyler Lockett to make a big play this week, and D.K. Metcalf should be in your lineup as a WR3 at worst. Gerald Everett has clearly emerged as Wilson’s third option in the passing game, maybe even #2. He’s hit 10 FP in five of his last seven, and the Lions have allowed seven different TEs to post double-digit FP in their last five contests, so another 10+ FP looks to be forthcoming.
Minnesota Vikings (7-8) at Green Bay Packers (12-3)
Players I like more than usual: AJ Dillon, Aaron Jones
Players I’m neutral on: Dalvin Cook, Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Davante Adams
Players I like less than usual: Justin Jefferson, K.J. Osborn
Longshot Plays: Tyler Conklin
Notes: It’s going to be between 5 and 2 degrees tonight, which is brutal. Sean Mannion gets the start, which means Justin Jefferson is actually sittable. You’d have to be loaded, but it’s possible. I don’t think we can expect more than 4-5 catches for 50-60 yards, but JJ is a stud, of course, so you can only go so far in terms of who you’d use over him. Dalvin Cook will return to the lineup this week after a stay on the COVID list, and he should get another 20+ touches, and he has been a Packers killer. It’s obviously a tough spot, so he has more downside if they can’t move the ball. Adam Thielen is out again, but it’s impossible to feel okay about using K.J. Osborn. At TE, Tyler Conklin could take on a bigger role in the passing game with Mannion, but the weather makes all these guys present more downside. Cole Kmet and Jimmy Graham combined for 6/79/1 receiving in this matchup last week, at least.
Aaron Rodgers is used to cold weather, but the temperature in GB should be prohibitive for Rodgers and Davante Adams. It’s a great matchup, at least, and Rodgers completed 23/33 passes for 385 yards and four TDs in Green Bay’s loss to the Vikings in Week 11. Adams is rolling right now and he put up 7/115/2 receiving on eight targets against the Vikings in Week 11. Given the weather, I don’t think you should mess with the whole Marquez Valdes-Scantling/Allen Lazard thing. AJ Dillon could bust out for 100+ yards and 1-2 TDs. The Vikings are dead with Kirk Cousins out, and it’s nasty weather games like these that prompted them to use a #2 pick on Dillon in 2020. Aaron Jones is obviously looking fine, especially since the Vikings won’t have their top run-stuffer in DT Michael Pierce, which is huge for Jones and Dillon.
Cleveland Browns (7-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7-1)
Players I like more than usual: Nick Chubb
Players I’m neutral on: Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, Ben Roethlisberger, Baker Mayfield
Players I like less than usual: Donovan Peoples-Jones, Chase Claypool
Longshot Plays: Jarvis Landry
Notes: The Browns won’t have Kareem Hunt, so its all Nick Chubb and the matchup is fantastic. Pittsburgh’s run defense has been gashed by opposing offenses in recent weeks, and they’re giving up the third-most rushing yards per game (120.1) to RBs. Chubb turned in 16/61 rushing with an eight-yard catch against the Steelers earlier this season. Baker Mayfield is not someone to back this week, obviously, and he put up only 225/0 when these teams met in late October. Jarvis Landry has been decent, at least, with 4+ catches in his last five games. Donovan Peoples-Jones has some upside, but he’s hard to trust this late in the season.
You’re sucking it up and using Najee Harris, who had his best YPC average since Week 5 with 19/93 rushing for 4.9 YPC against the Chiefs last week. Najee finished with 24/81 rushing and 6/46/1 receiving against the Browns earlier this season. This will be Ben Roethlisberger’s final home game, so I’d expect he will play well. He completed 22/34 passes for 266 yards and one TD against Cleveland in late October, and I could see something similar. Diontae Johnson finished with 6/98 receiving on 13 targets against the Browns in late October, so I’d expect something similar in the tougher matchup. Chase Claypool is tough to trust and is a desperation play only. Pat Freiermuth is a key weapon for Big Ben, and he should come close to the 4/44/1 receiving on seven targets he put up against the Browns back in late October.
