Week 3 SNF Showdown

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Week 3 SNF Showdown

General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
  • Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.

  • On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.

  • On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.

  • Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.

  • Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.

  • DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.

  • When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.

Captain

Davante Adams will always be the preferred captain when the Packers take the field thanks to DraftKings scoring. The near 25% target share and potential for double digit targets in every game, and use as the de facto goal line back all make him the best pick on the slate from a percentages standpoint. If you watched the game last week, you witnessed Aaron Jones have one of his patented four touchdown explosions that happens a couple times every year. In this spot against the 49ers. At least for last week, Aaron Jones got work when the Packers got in close. Through two weeks the 49ers haven’t faced a true #1 wide receiver so their pass defense looks a bit better on paper than their run defense. However, Rodgers and Adams will be able to move the ball in this matchup if they choose to attack through the air.

I still think Marquez Valdes-Scantling is worth a shot as the captain on DraftKings where salary matters. The 49ers have given up a handful of deep shots in just two weeks and that the wheelhouse for MVS. He is getting the deep targets and he’s going to haul one in eventually. Aaron Rodgers is probably my least favorite of the viable Packers captains, but it’s possible he spreads the touchdowns around and sneaks into the optimal captain. He’s more of a play on FanDuel where we just want the most fantasy points in the flex spot.

Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are the two captains that I’m interested in on the opposite side of the ball. Deebo has 20 targets and 52 fantasy points through two weeks. With all the uncertainty at running back, I think we see him get involved in jet sweeps and reverses as well as in the passing game. Kittle has been absent through two weeks relative to what we’ve come to expect from him. This could be the matchup that gets Kittle jump started for the season. We saw Hockenson dominated in the middle of the field against the Packers last week. The 49ers will definitely be scheming to use Kittle the same way. We know he has the ceiling in him to be a captain and his price on DraftKings is very reasonable thanks to his lackluster start to the season.

Flex

The 49ers running game is an absolute mess. There is a handful of backs that are capable of landing in optimals this week. Trey Sermon had one carry and a concussion last week, but is supposedly ready to role this week. His camp and preseason did nothing to prove to me he’s going to be effective in this game. Trenton Cannon is a shifty kick returner/scat back type of player that has never received a big workload. Then there’s Jacques Patrick and Kerryon Johnson who could get the call up. I don’t love playing any of these also-rans, especially because I think they need a game script of a 49ers win to be worthy of a roster spot. If anything, maybe Cannon sees a few targets. I think the more interesting play is actually 49ers fullback Kyle Juscyzk. He is used on a lot of play-action leak out type plays, Spider 2Y Banana if you will. I’d rather take a crack that he gets a few targets and one ends up falling in the end zone.

The 49ers receiving game outside of Deebo and Kittle leave a lot to be desired also. Trent Sherfield, believe it or not, is in play over Brandon Aiyuk who has two targets in two weeks. Shanahan has been blunt about Aiyuk just not being up to par at this point in the season. Sherfield has six targets and a touchdown through two weeks. I don’t have interest in much of the other 49ers receivers outside of Sherfield. Jauan Jennings caught a fluky touchdown last week which will probably over inflate his roster percentage.

If you are rostering Aaron Rodgers at captain, you’ll likely need to plug in a tertiary piece of the Packers’ offense because when he finds his third and fourth options is when he’s the top scorer in a single game situation. Robert Tonyan, Randall Cobb, and Allen Lazard are the players you’ll want to cycle through your Rodgers captain lineups. Tonyan has the highest correlation with Rodgers because of his end one usage. Cobb would be my second option of these three as he can get rolling and rack up short receptions. Lazard being in the optimal lineup would be due to touchdown variance.

I can see this game being a bit more of a slugfest than you would think so both kickers and DSTs will be a part of my player pool as well.

Lineup Starters

Captain/MVP: Davante Adams

Flex: Aaron Rodgers, Deebo Samuel, Trent Sherfield

Captain/MVP: Aaron Rodgers

Flex: Robert Tonyan, Davante Adams, Deebo Samuel

Captain/MVP: Marques Valdes-Scantling

Flex: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, George Kittle

Captain/MVP: Deebo Samuel

Flex: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Kyle Juscyzk

Captain/MVP: George Kittle

Flex: Jimmy Garoppolo, Aaron Jones, Aaron Rodgers

Pat began playing fantasy football 20 years ago. In 2012 he started the fantasy football site FantasyCouncil.com which opened the door for him to become a DFS contributor at several sites and is the newest DFS Contributor for Fantasy Points.