By Josh Chevalier, CFB DFS Analyst
Wednesday’s two-game slate is not full of the same offensive firepower that Tuesday’s slate provided. But we love both college football and DFS so we’ll take what we can get!
The New Orleans Bowl (Louisiana Tech vs. Georgia Southern) features two teams who are depleted due to opt outs, suspensions, and injuries leading to a low Vegas projected implied total of 48.5 points. Then we have the Montgomery Bowl (Memphis vs. FAU) featuring a potent Memphis passing attack paired with a Memphis defense that hasn’t stopped anyone through the air.
As you’ll discover below, this is a slate full of question marks at QB, leading to limited clear options at WR beyond Memphis. While the matchups might not be ideal across the board, there are some solid options at RB. Let’s dig into the slate.
Against the Spread Picks
Memphis (-11.0) vs. FAU
Louisiana Tech (+6.5) vs. Georgia Southern
Total Wagers
Memphis vs. FAU (Over 51.0)
Louisiana Tech vs. Georgia Southern (Under 48.5)
Quarterbacks
Brady White, Memphis vs FAU (DK: $9.5K | FD: $11.0K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 31.0)
Brady White is by far the best QB option on this slate, evidenced by the fact that he costs $2K more than any other QB. White is averaging 310 passing YPG, throwing for 28 TDs in 10 games. Memphis has struggled to find any consistency in the run game that’s caused them to rely on White’s passing attack to move the ball.
On the other side of the ball, Memphis’ passing defense is ranked 122nd, allowing 303 passing YPG that’s led to several shootouts this season. Another plus for White, HC Ryan Silverfield said that all the offensive weapons are healthy and expected to play in the bowl game:
FAU is a stingy passing defense ranking third versus opposing QBs, giving up 14.3 FPG. Who wins out in this matchup of strengths? I listened to an FAU podcast breaking down this matchup. The hosts were very concerned that the FAU secondary would not be able to contain the Memphis WRs in man coverage if the DL cannot get pressure on White.
The podcast pointed out that the Southern Miss WRs exposed the FAU DBs in man coverage in their last game. I decided to look up how well the Memphis OL has protected Brady White this year, and discovered they ranked top-30 in sack rate.
My assessment is that Brady White and the Memphis WRs will win this matchup versus the FAU secondary. In Cash/SE slates, I expect White’s ownership percentage to be similar to Zach Wilson’s last night.
Nick Tronti, FAU vs. Memphis (DK: $6.9K | FD: $9.2K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 20.0) *If he starts again
FAU’s offense put up their 2nd highest point total with Nick Tronti starting at QB versus Southern Miss. FAU must take advantage of the porous Memphis passing defense if they have a shot at pulling off the upset. Javion Posey simply has not shown the consistency to be able to provide that ability. Therefore, Tronti offers FAU the best chance in this game and should be named the starting QB.
Memphis’ passing defense is ranked 122nd in pass YPG at 303. The next worst passing defense on this slate is Louisiana Tech, they currently rank 50 spots higher. Unfortunately, Tronti put up his highest passing total last game, only 162 yards. If we start Tronti, it’s simply about potential and playing the matchup. The fact that I’m writing about Tronti shows you how poor/uncertain the other options are on this slate.
Alternatives:
Aaron Allen, Louisiana Tech vs. Georgia Southern (DK: $6.5 | FD: $7.7K | O/U: 48.5 | Implied: 21.0)
Miller Mosley, Georgia Southern vs. Louisiana Tech (DK: $6.3K | FD: $8.2K | O/U: 48.5 | Implied: 27.5) *If Shai Werts is OUT. If not, it seems like they will split reps.
Running Backs
James Charles, FAU vs. Memphis (DK: $6.7K | FD: $9.5K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 20.0)
James Charles is the last man standing within the FAU backfield with both BJ Emmons and Malcolm Davidson ruled out, once again, for the bowl game. Charles took advantage of his opportunity versus Southern Miss with 20 touches for 95 yards and 2 TDs, good for 25.5 FPs.
Memphis is allowing opposing teams to rush for 146 YPG, an average of 20.9 FPG. Between the volume he should receive and the matchup, Charles has the opportunity to have another solid outing. Despite being the highest-price RB option on the slate, I expect Charles to have a very high ownership percentage in Cash/SE contests.
Israel Tucker, Louisiana Tech vs Georgia Southern (DK: $5.4K | FD: $8.9K | O/U: 48.5 | Implied: 21.0)
Israel Tucker is in a similar situation as James Charles with the backfield all to himself, double-digit carries on the docket. Over the last five games, Tucker is averaging 20 carries/game, and totaled four TDs. Georgia Southern is a top-20 run defense allowing 112 YPG, 3.41 YPC.
We can expect tough sledding for Tucker. I love the volume but, with a bad O-line and facing the tough run defense, Tucker has a limited ceiling who’s TD-dependent toward hitting value. His price tag, volume, and limited options elsewhere are the reasons he could be considered.
Gerald Green, Georgia Southern vs. Louisiana Tech (DK: $3.2K | FD: $5.3K | O/U: 48.5 | Implied: 27.5)
The Georgia Southern RBs are very appealing in this slate. Louisiana Tech’s run defense is ranked 88th, allowing 185 YPG, and 4.75 YPC. As a triple-option offense, Georgia Southern is an eighth-ranked rushing offense that’s averaged 263 YPG, 5.42 YPC.
With JD King and Wesley Kennedy III ruled out, Gerald Greene and Logan Wright have led the rushing attack. I actually think it’s reasonable to play both in this slate. They are cheap options who will be productive, allow us to spend up on the Memphis passing attack.
Alternatives:
Rodrigues Clark, Memphis vs. FAU (DK: $4.9K | FD: $7.6K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 31.0)
$4.5K-or-less options:
Logan Wright, Georgia Southern vs. Louisiana Tech (DK: $4.5K | FD: $8.0K | O/U: 48.5 | Implied: 27.5)
Asa Martin, Memphis vs. FAU (DK: $4.0K | FD: $6.6K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 31.0)
Kylan Watkins, Memphis vs. FAU (DK: $3.7K | FD: $6.9K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 31.0)
Receivers
Calvin Austin III, Memphis vs. FAU (DK: $9.2K | FD: $10.4K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 31.0)
Calvin Austin III has been incredible since Damonte Coxie decided to opt out earlier in the year. Since the opt out, Austin has scored 20-plus FPs in seven-of-eight games, and including four games with 30-plus. He has elite-level speed as a 60m AAC track and field champion for Memphis.
FAU primarily plays man-to-man coverage which Austin should be able to take advantage of with his speed. At $9.2K, he is the second-most expensive player on this slate. I think it’s worth paying up for him in Cash/SE slates.
Tahj Washington, Memphis vs. FAU (DK: $6.5K | FD: $9.3K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 31.0)
Tahj Washington became the WR2 in the Memphis passing game when Coxie opted out, thriving in that role toward scoring at least 9.8 FPs in every game. Over that span, he has averaged 17.3 FPG. Washington is the second-highest scoring WR on this slate. With limited WR options, I think we need to have two Memphis WRs in our lineup. If you need the salary relief, Sean Dykes is not the worst option.
Smoke Harris, Louisiana Tech vs. Georgia Southern (DK: $5.8K | FD: $9.0K | O/U: 48.5 | Implied: 21.0)
Smoke Harris is leading Louisiana Tech in targets, receptions, yards, and TDs since Adrian Hardy opted out. He is the fourth-highest scoring WR on the slate, averaging 13.8 FPG. Georgia Southern is allowing 221 passing YPG, so there should be some opportunities in the passing game for Harris.
However, it should be noted that Aaron Allen will be the starting QB for Louisiana Tech after Luke Anthony suffered an ankle injury versus TCU. Allen has more interceptions (five) than TDs (four), so it’s difficult to say how much the QB change will affect the passing game. Considering Harris does a lot of his work in the short passing game, I’m not too concerned that his production is going to drop off in this game.
Your other options in this slate are pivoting to FAU WRs who have not shown any consistency or Georgia Southern WRs who get little receiving work in the triple-option offense. Needless to say, we have slim pickings at WR for Wednesday.
Alternatives:
Sean Dykes, Memphis vs. FAU (DK: $6.0K | FD: $8.8K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 31.0)
Brandon Robinson, FAU vs. Memphis (DK: $4.7K | FD: $8.6K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 20.0)
$4.5K-or-less options:
Isaiah Graham, Louisiana Tech vs. Georgia Southern (DK: $4.0K | FD: $6.3K | O/U: 48.5 | Implied: 21.0)
Javon Ivory, Memphis vs FAU (DK: $3.2K | FD: $6.0K | O/U: 51 | Implied: 31.0)
Josh Chevalier started playing CFB DFS when it was introduced on DK in 2015. Since its return to DK in 2018, he has provided in-depth weekly articles & analysis specializing in Cash/SE contests. Follow Josh on Twitter:@CFFguys
