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Thursday Night Football
We’ve made it to the final Thursday Night Football game of the season, and we’re going out with a bang with a matchup between playoff contenders in both conferences. I’m looking at Ryan Tannehill (Ten) over 220.5 passing yards (100 pts) for my first prop. The Titans are expected to have both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones in the lineup this week, and they should be pushed to the air more anyway against San Francisco’s top-rated run defense. The 49ers have given up 230+ passing yards to quarterbacks in six of their last seven games, with the miserable Trevor Lawrence being the only QB to fall below that number. I’m also taking Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (Ten) under .5 receiving touchdowns (80 pts), primarily because Brown and Julio are projected to be back in the mix this week. Westbrook-Ikhine has also scored just three touchdowns this season, so this one seems like a layup. Good luck! — Tom Brolley
Betting on DK Metcalf seems like a stretch lately - from a fantasy perspective he has yet to hit the 12 point mark in his six games since the BYE. Looking at these games though, four of the six he has had 8 targets and in his last game he had 12 so this at least is a good sign for opportunity. Due to this opportunity and us waiting for that “get right” game, I am selecting DK Metcalf over 4.5 receptions (95 pts).
Justin Herbert will be the focus of my next pick. I am a sucker for making selections when you can combine stats, and seeing as though I can combine Herbert’s passing and rushing yards - I am in. Herbert has had even games above 300 passing yards alone this season, and adds yards weekly with his legs. Knowing his passing ceiling and having the cushion of some rushing yards I will select Justin Herbert above 285.5 total yards (100 pts) today vs. the Texans in a plus matchup.
I hope everyone had a wonderful holiday weekend and they’re already up by dozens of points in their fantasy matchups heading into Sunday’s slate. If not, let's make some money with some Thrive props! For my first prop, I’m expecting the Buccaneers’ offense to struggle again this week and I’m taking Tom Brady (TB) under 290.5 passing yards (105 pts). A Tom Brady-led offense got shut out last week for just the third time in his career and for the first time since 2006. Brady posted season-lows in YPA (4.5) and in passer rating (57.1), and he’ll once again be undermanned with Chris Godwin (ACL), Mike Evans (hamstring), and Leonard Fournette (hamstring) out this week. This also isn’t an easy matchup with the Panthers giving up the second-fewest passing yards per game (197.4) to quarterbacks this season. I’m also looking at Ja’Marr Chase (Cin) over .5 receiving touchdowns (115 pts) in a juicy matchup against a depleted Ravens’ secondary. Chase turned in a massive 8/201/1 receiving performance against the Ravens earlier this season, and the Bengals should skew more pass-heavy this week against Baltimore’s weak secondary. Joe Burrow has been one of the best quarterbacks against the blitz all season, averaging a league-high 11.0 YPA against the blitz and the Ravens were blitzing at the third-highest rate (32.4%) through 14 games. Good luck! — Tom Brolley
Monday Night Football
We end Week 16 with a primetime matchup between Tua Tagovailoa and Ian Book, just as we anticipated before the start of the season. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know that the Saints’ passing game is going to struggle this week, and I’m taking Marquez Callaway (NO) under .5 receiving touchdowns (80 pts) for that reason. This game is totaled at 37.5 points so scoring is going to be at a premium anyway, and Callaway hasn’t scored in his last four games. The Dolphins also haven’t allowed a WR to score a receiving touchdown in five of their last six games since Week 9. I’m taking Myles Gaskin (Mia) under 52.5 rushing yards (100 pts) for my final prop. Duke Johnson got elevated to the top spot last week because Gaskin saw just one practice after a week’s layoff on the COVID list. HC Brian Flores will be choosing between Johnson, Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed, Phillip Lindsay, and Malcolm Brown moving forward. OC Eric Studesville said early in the week that the team would continue to have competition for playing time in this backfield. This backfield is likely to be a mess and they get a brutal matchup against a Saints’ defense that’s giving up the second-fewest FPG (18.9) to RBs this season. Good luck! — Tom Brolley