2023 Week 11 Fantasy Mismatch Report

With Fantasy Points Data — a project we’ve worked on for nearly two years and launched in 2023 — we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. That is the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

Using Fantasy Points Data, I’ve identified the biggest mismatches in all of this week’s games in an effort to make your fantasy and wagering decisions easier.

First, a note on some of the tools I’m using here.

All offensive/defensive line trench data is from the last five weeks, unless otherwise noted, in an attempt to reduce noise.

Rush Grade

Our “RUSH GRADE” offensive line stat is based simply on a formula measuring an offense’s average yardage before contact allowed on running plays — not including out-of-structure scrambles, trick plays, QB kneels, or QB sneaks. We call this statistic “adjusted yards before contact per attempt” (aYBC/A), and the Rush Grade applies to both an offense’s aYBC/A created and a defense’s aYBC/A allowed.

The darker the green, the better the matchup. The darker the red, the worse the matchup.

Pass Grade

Our “PASS GRADE” is a formula developed using “QB Pressure Rate Over Expectation.” It measures how much a quarterback should be expected to face pressure, adjusted for the quarterback’s average time to throw (a quarterback with a 3.0-second aT2T should be expected to be pressured more than one with a 2.0-second aT2T, for instance).

The higher the QBPROE number, the worse it is for an offense, and the better it is for a defense.

The darker the green, the better the matchup. The darker the red, the worse the matchup.

WR/CB Tool

Our WR/CB Matchup Tool is sortable with loads of matchup data.

A note on our process: there are very few situations in the NFL in which one receiver will match up with one corner for the vast majority of his routes. So honestly, WR/CB matchups in the traditional sense are perhaps the most overrated form of fantasy analysis.

We aim to do them better: our process breaks down how many routes a receiver runs from a certain alignment, and assigns a weighted score based on how much that receiver is expected to see a given defender based on those alignments. So it will measure how often we expect a receiver to face all defenders in a matchup, not just one particular defender, and weigh a score by those expected percentages.

If I do believe there will be a “shadow CB” situation, I’ll mention it and break down the matchup.

All times Eastern

Cincinnati at Baltimore (Thu, 8:15 PM)

Ravens OL vs. Bengals DL in the run game

The Ravens feature our #3 Rush Grade of the week, which is not uncommon for a team that employs Lamar Jackson. And the Bengals’ defense just outright embarrassed itself last week, giving up 150 non-scramble rushing yards to a Texans team that reached 100 such yards just twice all season prior to Week 10. The Ravens do have offensive line issues with both LT Ronnie Stanley (what else is new) and RT Morgan Moses dinged up, but this is a matchup in which they should succeed on the ground regardless. What would help would be more touches for the explosive Keaton Mitchell, who had just 1 second-half carry against the Browns last week despite two explosive plays in the first half.

Dallas at Carolina (Sun, 1 PM)

Cowboys DL vs. Panthers OL in the run game

The Panthers check in with our 3rd-worst Rush Grade of the week, not at all surprising after Chuba Hubbard, Miles Sanders, and Raheem Blackshear combined for 25 yards on 13 carries last week against the Bears. I don’t know how one could possibly feel good about playing Hubbard in a broken offense as 10.5-point underdogs against Dallas, but perhaps the Panthers manage to get some room to run in the second half when the Cowboys call off the dogs… as they did against the Giants last week, and Saquon Barkley managed to actually gain positive yardage. Carolina might have the most broken non-Giants offense in the NFL right now, so I’m not running to fire Hubbard into my lineups.

Cowboys OL vs. Panthers pass rush

The Cowboys have our #4 Pass Grade of the week, a grade that would be even more lopsided in their favor if Panthers’ EDGE Brian Burns can’t clear concussion protocol this week. Whatever the case — Burns or no Burns — I like this draw for Dak Prescott and the all-of-a-sudden pass-heavy Cowboys. Over the last four weeks, Prescott has completed 72% of his throws for 9.7 YPA and 338.5 yards per game with a 12:2 TD-to-INT ratio. He’s also started to run again, which is obviously huge in fantasy. After barely running at all in Weeks 1-5, Prescott has added 90 yards and 2 TD on 19 carries over his last four starts. I anticipate Mike McCarthy and Prescott will continue pumping the ball to CeeDee Lamb and these playmakers.

Cowboys pass rush vs. Panthers OL

The Cowboys have feasted on bad pass games and offensive lines this year. They have four games in which they’ve pressured an opposing QB on more than 45% of dropbacks this year — the QBs they faced in those games were Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, and most recently Tommy DeVito. It’s been a rough go of it for Bryce Young as a rookie, as his offensive line is struggling badly in front of him. The Panthers have allowed a QBPROE of 9.84% over the last five weeks, 4th-most in the NFL over that span, with the left side of the line — second-year LT Ickey Ekwonu, rookie LG Chandler Zavala — especially struggling. The Panthers have seesawed back to HC Frank Reich calling plays this week, but I can’t imagine he’ll find much success against Micah Parsons and company. The Panthers feature our 3rd-worst Pass Grade of the week.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (Sun, 1 PM)

Browns pass rush vs. Steelers OL

The Steelers' once-dormant rushing attack is hitting its stride in the second half of the season for the second straight year, and this year’s surge has coincided with Pittsburgh inserting first-round pick Broderick Jones into the starting lineup at right tackle. The Steelers have posted season-highs in rushing yards (166<205) and YPC (5.5<5.7) in back-to-back games against the Titans and Packers. And so I fully expect Mike Tomlin, Matt Canada, and Pittsburgh to continue to lean into what’s been working, meanwhile looking to neutralize DPOY favorite Myles Garrett. With Deshaun Watson (shoulder) shut down and rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson making his second career start under center in a low-total game (33.5), the game should be close enough for Pittsburgh to hand it to Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren a bunch of times as opposed to dropping Kenny Pickett back a ton in our 4th-worst Pass Grade matchup of the week.

Chicago at Detroit (Sun, 1 PM)

Bears OL vs. Lions DL in the run game

I am a little surprised to see the Bears check in with our #1 Rush Grade of the week, given the Lions have surrendered 100 non-scramble rushing yards just once in any game this season. But four of the Lions’ five highest games in terms of yards before contact allowed have come over the last six weeks, while the Bears have somewhat quietly been grinding out a strong run game — over the last five weeks, their 1.76 aYBC/A on the ground created is 5th-best in the NFL, while unheralded lineman Teven Jenkins has been one the best individual run blockers in the league. And remember, Justin Fields — who helps open things up for the run game with his mere presence — hasn’t even played a full game since Week 5. The Bears could get Fields (thumb) back this week, as well as RB Khalil Herbert (ankle). I doubt D’Onta Foreman — who has topped 65 rushing yards in four of his last five games — will cede the lead role back to Herbert, so this is a sneaky good matchup to use him… if you aren’t scared off by the double-digit point spread.

Lions OL vs. Bears pass rush

The Lions have our #1 Pass Grade of the week, which is of no surprise given the Lions have allowed the least pressure to expectation over the last five weeks, while the Bears have generated the least. Bears new pass rusher Montez Sweat generated 3 QB hits last week against the Panthers, and their 16 QB pressures overall were their 2nd-most of the year, so he’s making an impact, but I still have to give the heavy edge here to the Lions’ offensive line. No QB has a higher completion rate over expected when in a clean pocket than Jared Goff this year (7.4%), and he’s 5th in ANY/A as well. The Bears better hope Sweat continues to make an impact up front, because Goff is the type of QB who can just pick them apart.

LA Chargers at Green Bay (Sun, 1 PM)

Packers DL vs. Chargers OL in the run game

The Chargers haven’t really run it all that well this year, but they’ve shown a few signs of life recently, including gaining 120 non-scramble rushing yards in Week 7 against the Chiefs and 83 in Week 10 against the Lions, their 3rd and 4th-best totals of the season so far. Meanwhile, the Packers just got shredded on the ground by the Steelers, giving up 183 non-scramble rush yards and a season-worst 2.55 YBC/A. Still, the Packers’ 1.00 aYBC/A allowed over the last five weeks is 5th-fewest in the NFL over that span, and because of the Chargers’ overall struggles, Austin Ekeler and the boys check in with our 5th-worst Rush Grade of the week. But as always, he can make do with his receiving work.

Packers OL vs. Chargers pass rush

The Packers are a mainstay in our top Pass Grades, and they have the #2 such grade this week. But as I’ve noted in past columns, it doesn’t necessarily matter, because Jordan Love has struggled when not pressured this year. Against the Steelers in Week 10, he went just 16/29 from a clean pocket, with his third 2-INT game when kept clean on the year. Love has the most such games in the NFL this year, and he also has the most games in the league with below a 60% completion percentage when kept clean, as well. This is a good matchup, and the Lions just dropped 41 on the Chargers with LA generating a season-low 7 pressures, so I wouldn’t doubt Love will draw some fantasy support and DFS ownership, and it’s justified — but those who make that decision should understand that playing Love is similar to trying to defuse a bomb.

Arizona at Houston (Sun, 1 PM)

Texans DL vs.Cardinals OL in the run game

This Texans' run defense has been spectacular! Against the Bengals last week, Houston extended its run of allowing less than 1.0 yards before contact to three straight games, and four of their last five. Over the last five weeks, their 0.57 aYBC/A allowed is by far the lowest in the NFL, and they haven’t allowed more than 75 non-scramble rush yards over that stretch, either. Now, though, they’ll have to continue to manage the loss of DT Hassan Ridgeway (Achilles) and the recent suspension of LB Denzel Perryman — the return of DT Sheldon Rankins to the lineup . I don’t know if the Cardinals featuring our 2nd-worst Rush Grade of the week should really dissuade you from using James Conner, however, given his usage — Conner returned from his four-week IR stint for a knee injury, and was instantly back to being a borderline bell cow in the Cards’ Week 10 win over the Falcons, playing 63% of the snaps and handling 16 carries for 73 yards. No Cardinal RB was targeted by Kyler Murray, while Tony Jones and Keaontay Ingram combined for just 3 carries. And of course, Murray looking spry on the ground certainly will help open holes for Conner.

Tennessee at Jacksonville (Sun, 1 PM)

Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley vs. Titans perimeter CBs

Few fantasy players — and maybe offenses in general — have disappointed as much as Ridley and Jacksonville. Ridley’s fallen below 10 PPR FP in five of nine games this year, and it feels like being the “X” receiver in the offense does not suit him well. In the three games in which the injured — and now potentially legally troubled — Zay Jones has played this year, Ridley averages 16.6 FPG. In the six games in which Jones has not played, he’s down at just 7.5 FPG. But if there was ever a matchup for him to snap out of this funk, it’s this one. No team has been a better matchup for outside receivers than the Titans over the last five weeks, with +8.2 schedule-adjusted FPG. Tennessee’s primary outside CB this year, Kristian Fulton, has given up a 5th-most 1.82 yards per route run among CBs with 100 or more coverage snaps. And in Week 10 against the Bucs, they moved Roger McCreary outside to help account for the loss of Sean Murphy-Bunting (thumb). McCreary gave up 66 yards receiving in his primary coverage, 13th-most of qualified CBs in Week 10. Murphy-Bunting could potentially return this week, but it’s possible he’s still limited by the thumb injury. If not now for Ridley, when?

Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins vs. Jaguars perimeter CBs

Over the last five weeks, Jacksonville has been the 3rd-best schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing perimeter WRs (+5.2 FPG), and it looks like Jacksonville will be shorthanded once again in this one, with top CB Tyson Campbell (hamstring) aggravating an injury in Week 10 that cost him much of the previous month. Will Levis had his “welcome to the NFL” game last week, but there should be plenty of room for him to pepper Hopkins in this one, potentially against Montaric Brown, who was a healthy scratch last week.

Las Vegas at Miami (Sun, 1 PM)

Dolphins OL vs. Raiders DL in the run game

Coming out of their bye, the Dolphins will get De’Von Achane (knee) back with little or no restrictions for Week 11. As a reminder, Achane led this backfield by a slim margin in carries (37 to 30) and routes (48% share to 40% for Mostert) in Weeks 3-5 ahead of Raheem Mostert. Most importantly, Achane was the clear lead back in the red zone. In their three games together, Achane out-snapped Mostert by a 65% to 30% margin inside-the-10. Achane had 7 carries (and 4 targets) inside-the-10 in just 3 games. The diminished red-zone usage is obviously a concern for Mostert moving forward. Mostert has handled 73% of the carries inside-the-10 when Achane is out. And now, the Dolphins feature our #2 Rush Grade of the week in this matchup with the Raiders, who despite holding the Jets to 52 non-scramble rush yards in Week 10, have surrendered by far a league-high 2.34 aYBC/A over the last five weeks. That’s a uniquely bad matchup against a Miami team that typically runs on everyone. Do keep in mind that Miami’s interior offensive line has been really banged up of late, so we need to keep an eye on that coming out of the bye.

NY Giants at Washington (Sun, 1 PM)

Commanders pass rush vs. Giants OL

Yes, the Commanders traded away both of their top pass rushers, and their two lowest pressure rates of the season came in the last two weeks. No, Tommy DeVito is not an NFL QB. Yes, the Giants have a banged-up offensive line. No, the Giants don’t have any weapons (and Saquon Barkley is dinged, too). Yes, the Giants have our worst Pass Grade of the week. No, you shouldn’t trust anyone — except maybe Saquon — for fantasy.

Commanders WRs vs. Giants perimeter CBs

I don’t know how much I can throw support behind Jahan Dotson after his second goose egg in five weeks, especially since the latest came in a game in which Sam Howell dropped back nearly 50 times against the Seahawks last week. But for Dotson and Terry McLaurin (who is objectively the better play), it’s hard to imagine a better matchup. On the year, Giants CB Deonte Banks has given up an 11th-most 446 receiving yards, and Adoree’ Jackson (questionable with a concussion) has given up a 23rd-most 373 despite missing two games — Jackson’s 1.97 YPRR allowed is 2nd-most to only Emmanuel Forbes, one of his counterparts in this game. The entire Commanders offense took a crap a few weeks ago in their 14-7 loss to the Giants, but Dotson and McLaurin still combined for 133 receiving yards in that game.

Tampa Bay at San Francisco (Sun, 4:05 PM)

49ers DL vs. Bucs OL in the run game

Tampa had its first excellent Rush Grade in a long time in Week 10 against the Titans, but unfortunately, it didn’t matter for Rachaad White, who couldn’t find any room to run — he had just 20 carries for 51 yards, of which 47 came after contact. Despite the positive matchup by the numbers, White’s 0.20 YBC/A in Week 10 was his worst of the year, in a year in which he’s averaged just 1.0 YBC/A, 5th-worst among RBs with 100 or more carries. And now, he carries our 4th-worst Rush Grade of the week in a difficult matchup with the 49ers. That’s not uncommon, and he’s often produced decent fantasy numbers anyway, given he’s seen at least 3 targets in all but one game this year.

NY Jets at Buffalo (Sun, 4:25 PM)

Bills OL vs. Jets DL in the run game

The Bills have our #4 Rush Grade of the week, but it’s definitely going to be hard to predict how they’ll play in their first game with new OC Joe Brady. Buffalo fired Ken Dorsey after a disastrous performance against the Broncos on Monday Night Football, though it does seem to be fueled by unfortunate and perhaps even fluky turnovers. One of those turnovers was on James Cook, who fumbled on his first reception of the game and was briefly benched… before returning to run angrily and gain 109 yards on 12 carries. Believe it or not, the Bills have averaged 2.26 aYBC/A over the last five weeks, which is most in the NFL, and though Buffalo has been the 5th-pass-heaviest team in neutral situations this year, they shifted to a far more run-heavy approach against Denver. I’m very curious as to how Brady is going to play this — remember, he got fired by the Panthers for not running it enough. The Bills have been disjointed this year, without a doubt, but it might be because of an overall lack of weapons and some untimely turnovers for Josh Allen. Is Brady being promoted to try to coach that out of Allen? And is that smart? Nonetheless, our metrics suggest they should be able to run the ball against the Jets, if they want to help Allen hit the reset button.

Jets pass rush vs. Bills OL

There are a lot of trench mismatches in this game, per our metrics, and the biggest one in the Jets’ favor is their pass rush against Buffalo’s offensive line — we have Buffalo ranking with our 5th-worst Pass Grade of the week. Over the last five weeks, only the Browns have generated more pressure above expectation than New York (13.57%), though it is worth noting that the Jets’ lowest pressure rate of the season came back in Week 1 against the Bills, with a 30% pure pressure rate and a 2.71% QBPROE, both season lows, though they forced four Josh Allen turnovers in that game. And it’ll be fascinating to see if new OC Joe Brady tries to take a little bit off of Allen’s plate, as Allen heroball has been partially Buffalo’s biggest downfall this year.

Bills DL vs. Jets OL in the run game

The Jets’ run game has completely collapsed. After topping 160 non-scramble rushing yards twice in the first five weeks of the season — including 166 against these Bills in Week 1 — they’ve fallen below 60 yards in each of their last four games, a span over which they’ve averaged 1.38 YBC/A in their best game. Over that span, Breece Hall has just 134 yards on 53 carries (2.53 YPC), and the only touchdown he scored on the ground came when the Eagles let him score so they could get the ball back. The Bills have had a lot of problems shooting themselves in the foot this year, but their run defense has been a bright spot — they’re giving up just 0.80 aYBC/A over the last five weeks, 4th-fewest in the NFL. The Jets’ offensive line remains a disaster, even if they get Duane Brown back this week, and teams don’t respect QB Zach Wilson enough to not key on the run game. The Jets have our worst Rush Grade of the slate in Week 11.

Bills pass rush vs. Jets OL

The Jets have our 2nd-worst Pass Grade of the week, as their offensive line has allowed a QBPROE of 10.70% over the last five weeks, 3rd-highest in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Bills’ pass rush is one of the units working for them — three of their four worst games by QBPROE came in the first four weeks of the season, before they got Von Miller back. And that includes in Week 1 against the Jets and Zach Wilson, when they generated a -0.38% QBPROE. The Jets could get 38-year-old LT Duane Brown (shoulder) back this week, but this is still a matchup that favors the Bills.

Seattle at LA Rams (Sun, 4:25 PM)

Seahawks OL vs. Rams DL in the run game

The Seahawks have our #5 Rush Grade of the week, in large part because the Rams have allowed a lot of yards before contact in their last two games — their 2.55 YBC/A allowed on non-scramble runs against the Packers in Week 9 was their highest of the year, while their 1.95 YBC/A allowed in Week 8 against Pittsburgh was the 3rd-highest. The last game was the first time the Rams allowed more than 2.0 aYBC/A since Week 1… against these Seahawks. Ken Walker had 64 yards on 12 carries in that contest, and will look to have a bigger impact in Week 11… though Walker has now fallen below 50% snaps in each of his last three games, all fewer than Zach Charbonnet. Walker is still the early-down back, but Charbonnet has meaningfully cut into his snaps, which lowers his ceiling.

Rams OL vs. Seahawks pass rush

The Rams have our #3 Pass Grade of the week, mostly because their -4.72% QBPROE allowed is 3rd-lowest in the NFL over the last five weeks, and in general, that’s good news for a returning Matthew Stafford (thumb). But the Seahawks have also pressured QBs on over 35% of dropbacks in three of their last four games — the other was against Baltimore, which happened to be their lowest pressure rate of the year at a minuscule 13.2% — and Boye Mafe is developing into one of the NFL’s most dangerous edge rushers. The Rams’ offensive line struggled early in the year, but they haven’t allowed a pressure rate over expectation of higher than 3.1% since Week 5. I’m not convinced this matchup is as good as our numbers think it is, given Mafe’s emergence, but Sean McVay is doing a really good job scheming up this offense and keeping pressure out of the pocket.

Minnesota at Denver (Sun, 8:20 PM)

Vikings OL vs. Broncos pass rush

The Broncos’ defense has undergone a midseason renaissance, and while no one would call it a shutdown unit, it’s certainly not the historically bad group it was through the first five weeks of the year. But the reason our trench metrics like the Vikings enough for our #5 Pass Grade of the week is because we love the Vikings’ offensive line, especially in pass protection. And this all adds up too good news for Josh Dobbs — after being pressured at a rate above expectation in every game he played with Arizona, he’s been pressured below expectation in both of his games with Minnesota, which is a clear sign of the offensive line upgrade he’s had. Dobbs is the overall QB3 in FPG the last two weeks, behind only Dak Prescott and CJ Stroud. Not only does Dobbs have beatable matchups with the Broncos and Bears looming before Minnesota’s Week 13 bye, but he could well get Justin Jefferson “back” (he’s never thrown to him, obviously) this week, which should make Minnesota’s offense more explosive. He is a legitimate QB1 for fantasy purposes, in addition to being the coolest story of the year.

SHADOW ALERT! Broncos CB Patrick Surtain vs. Vikings WR Justin Jefferson

There’s, uh, obviously one huge caveat here. Jefferson (hamstring) is no guarantee to play, and Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell has been mostly noncommittal about Jefferson’s return. But if he does go, I’d expect Surtain to shadow, as he often does. The Broncos have used Surtain to follow around five receivers on more than 60% of their routes this year. That included Denver, hilariously, shadowing Skyy Moore in Week 8, and as you might imagine, the underachieving Moore didn’t catch a single pass in Surtain’s shadow coverage. And last week, Stefon Diggs fell just under the threshold at 57.7% (Diggs often will move inside). Surtain hasn’t allowed a single receiver to catch more than 3 passes on him when he was the closest defender this year — Diggs had just 1 catch for 11 yards on him — though he has also been responsible for 2 touchdowns to guys you wouldn’t consider great WRs — Robbie Chosen and Romeo Doubs. If Jefferson goes, you have to start him, but this isn’t the best of matchups for him.

Philadelphia at Kansas City (Mon, 8:15 PM)

SHADOW ALERT! Chiefs CB L’Jarius Sneed vs. Eagles WR AJ Brown

The Chiefs have used Sneed to shadow six different “#1” receivers on 50% or more of their routes this year, in descending order of route share — Calvin Ridley, DJ Moore, Justin Jefferson, Garrett Wilson, Josh Palmer, and Courtland Sutton. And of those receivers, it was Palmer — believe it or not — who put up the most yardage in Sneed’s coverage, with 41. By no means do I find this matchup unbeatable — strict coverage yardage metrics can be tricky, and PFF, in particular, doesn’t rate Sneed highly. But he’s the guy the Chiefs really trust with their toughest matchups, and I would anticipate this will be the one they deploy him on this week. Brown typically gets his, of course.

Chiefs WR Rashee Rice vs. Eagles slot defenders

This will be one of the most fascinating matchups of the year. In general, the Eagles have had trouble defending opposing WRs, but especially opposing WRs who line up in the slot — they lost star slot defender Avonte Maddox to a torn pec in Week 2, and since have been through a revolving door at the position. That is expected to get better this week, with veteran Bradley Roby returning from a shoulder injury, but it’s hard to ignore the fact that the Eagles have hemorrhaged points to slot receivers — a 2nd-most +9.0 schedule-adjusted FPG over the past five weeks — and Rice has been the Chiefs’ only WR worth a damn all season. Plus, it’s entirely possible Roby will be rusty. I would imagine that Andy Reid, notorious for his bye-week preparation prowess, will continue to involve Rice more in the second half of the season.