As we inch closer to actual padded American Football action in 2023, I’ve gathered some Individual Defensive Player (IDP) thoughts on each team to help us focus our attention on what little bit of preseason football involves players we might actually draft. It goes by quickly, so training our lens on a few key pieces of each team’s defense can help us keep our sanity until meaningful football commences.
With that said (err, typed), here are a few statements, beliefs, musings, but primarily questions to focus on for each team.
Arizona Cardinals
I'm placing my bets on Kyzir White as the primary LB. Zaven Collins is playing more on the edge and Isaiah Simmons is now officially a DB.
Last season, Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson almost perfectly shared the tackling duties. As they are now under new DC (and former Philly DC) Jonathan Gannon, I expect them to register similar numbers, assuming Budda’s recent contract adjustment keeps him happy.
Atlanta Falcons
Grady Jarrett had a commendable but unlucky 2022 season. His 45:6 pressure-to-sack ratio (13%) indicated he should have been more valuable for fantasy. The league average hovers around 25%. Now, he is supported by both Calais Campbell and David Onyemata, which should help his chances.
I think Troy Andersen has the best shot at becoming the primary LB for Atlanta. However, the team also heavily relied on 2-LB sets last year, so will it be Kaden Ellis or Mykal Walker playing next to Andersen? Or will one of them move ahead of Andersen?
New safety Jessie Bates had a strong season playing deep last year in Cincinnati, while incumbent Richie Grant performed exceptionally well as a box/slot defender. This suggests Grant emerging as the stronger fantasy player. Hopefully, we’ll see evidence of this lean toward Grant playing closer to the line of scrimmage during preseason.
Baltimore Ravens
The law offices of Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen started slowly in Baltimore once Smith was traded from Chicago, but Smith quickly returned to double-digit tackles. As the primary LB, Smith posted 9 or more tackles in 5 of his last 6 games, while Queen broke 10+ tackles only twice all season.
With Chuck Clark's departure, 2nd-year safety Kyle Hamilton's participation should skyrocket from 53% to a full-time player. In 3-safety sets Geno Stone — who significantly improved last season — is likely to take over as the deep safety, keeping Hamilton closer to the action.
Buffalo Bills
With Tremaine Edmunds gone, Matt Milano should see a noticeable increase in tackles. The question remains: Who will start beside him? Will it be A.J. Klein, Terrel Bernard, or Tyrel Dodson? Or will they opt for a rotation? It’s hard to see 3rd-round rookie Dorian Williams getting through all that traffic, but there’s nothing but JAGs in front of him.
Carolina Panthers
Given the defensive talent at LB and DB, I anticipate more 3-safety sets, with Jeremy Chinn predominantly featured in the slot/box/edge positions. Vonn Bell and Xavier Woods make a nice traditional safety pair, while both Shaq Thompson and Frankie Luvu were much better run defenders than coverage LBs.
Chicago Bears
Last season, Jaquan Brisker and Eddie Jackson were both fantasy relevant, but Brisker's 104 tackles were well ahead of Jackson's 80. While Brisker mostly played upfront, Jackson was more often deployed deep. I’m expecting that to continue, but watching their roles during preseason will help my confidence in this split.
Cincinnati Bengals
Logan Wilson was their primary LB in 2022, and I expect him to retain that position this season.
Cincy has a new safety duo. Nick Scott came over from the Rams, where he spent most of his time playing the deep role. If that continues, Dax Hill could potentially become the new "Vonn Bell."
Cleveland Browns
Every LB here carries uncertainties. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah's athleticism stands out, but he’s already missed time with injury in each of his first two seasons. His 15% missed tackle rate is troublesome, but he’s still the most talented guy here. Anthony Walker's traits as a team captain and a defensive quarterback are valuable, but age and speed could be limiting factors. Sione Takitaki and Jacob Phillips squandered their opportunities as full-time players last season when JOK and Walker were out.
Juan Thornhill thrived playing deep last season for Kansas City. The big question is: will he maintain a similar role for Cleveland under Jim Schwartz?
Dallas Cowboys
What a difference a year makes. This time last year, we wondered if Leighton Vander Esch would even make the team. Now he’s locked in as the primary LB. I hope Micah Parsons is a DL/EDGE in your leagues.
Last season, Jayron Kearse and Donovan Wilson were heavily featured in box/slot roles, while Malik Hooker was almost solely deployed deep. Do we see that again this year? I think so. I think Dallas is feeling good about their safety rotation. That makes both Kearse and Wilson fantasy relevant, but neither will be consistent due to the variability of their rotation.
Denver Broncos
Uh, don’t look now, but Alex Singleton is…good? He turned his career around in Denver, demonstrating solid performance against both the run and pass. He slowly ascended into a fixture for them after coming into 2022 as a free-agent bench warmer.
Justin Simmons and Kareem Jackson once again stuck to their L/R safety splits, highlighting their tackle consistency. Both averaged about 5.5 tackles per game. Jackson is entering his age-35 season, but I’d love him as my DB3. Simmons has a clear edge in big-play value and is more expensive in drafts. He’s posted at least 4 INTs in four straight seasons, while Jackson is usually only good for 1-2 a year.
Detroit Lions
How quickly can rookie LB Jack Campbell (18th overall) earn a full-time role? Alex Anzalone improved as the season progressed, so he might not be going anywhere for a minute.
How do these three safeties shake out? Tracy Walker tore his Achilles last season but is already ready for training camp. How effective will he be less than a year removed from the injury? C.J. Gardner-Johnson is an excellent slot defender. Will he retain that role? CGJG had his stint at nickel for new Lions DC Aaron Glenn when both were in New Orleans. Kerby Joseph was good in the deep role last year. If Walker can hold his own, I think CJGJ stays in the slot, but if Walker struggles physically, we could see a shift.
Green Bay Packers
Rashan Gary was balling out before his ACL tear in November. He’s starting the season on the PUP. Rookie Lukas Van Ness will get plenty of snaps this preseason to solidify a healthy piece of the pass-rush rotation.
Jonathan Owens steps into the shoes of the recently departed Adrian Amos. However, I don't expect him to replicate his extraordinary numbers from last year; a feat largely achieved due to a perfect storm of factors, such as a defense that played the most snaps and recorded the highest number of tackles in the NFL. Darnell Savage struggled last year and was even benched at one point. Is his job safe?
Houston Texans
Jimmie Ward — who previously played under new Houston coach DeMeco Ryans in San Francisco — should ideally be a strong safety, but his versatility allows him to play the slot well, too. Jalen Pitre will have a hard time repeating last year’s stats unless this Houston Run D is historically bad for two years in a row. Ryans is here to try and ensure that doesn’t happen.
As bad as this LB corps is, I don’t see Henry To'oTo'o winning a job. Not because I’m an excellent draft scout, but because Greg Cosell is, and he’s concerned about To'oTo'o’s ability to be an NFL starter.
Indianapolis Colts
I have no idea what to do with Shaquille Leonard. I have no idea if he’ll ever be the same player. One thing I’m watching closely is whether Nick Cross can reclaim a starting job over Rodney Thomas. Given DC Gus Bradley's inclination for a single-high strategy, Cross could become a valuable IDP asset if so. Remember, he’s just a sophomore, and Bradley said his benching last season came from a lack of concentration, not talent. And Bradley’s seen progress in OTAs. So this is a huge preseason for him. And for his fantasy prospects in Bradley’s single-high scheme.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Foye Oluokun and Devin Lloyd are expected to continue their nearly every-snap routine unless Lloyd faces another benching scenario. Jax played a ton of 2-LB sets, so let’s see if that continues in the preseason. If so, I’m in on Lloyd and his 13% tackle rate. Foye’s was 16%, and he led the galaxy in tackles.
Kansas City Chiefs
I can’t wait to see how George Karlaftis develops in his second year. Also, we may finally have a stud Chief LB in Nick Bolton. I feel like we haven’t had one of those since Derrick Johnson.
Will L’Jarius Sneed get more time playing in the slot this year? He stopped being a heavy-slot CB toward the end of the season and they won a Super Bowl, so watching his preseason alignments might give us a clue.
Las Vegas Raiders
EDGE Tyree Wilson, the 7th overall pick, has come to replace Chandler Jones. How soon will he do it? Or can he do it? Given Las Vegas's not-so-great history of drafting defensive linemen, this is something to keep an eye on. I’m still not over Clelin Ferrell’s disappointing run with the Raiders.
Marcus Epps had a good run with Philadelphia. His arrival should be a significant upgrade at strong safety and implies a shift from their usual single-high approach. New DC Patrick Graham has shown a ton of different looks in his secondary, so you can throw away what you know about the previous Las Vegas D. Not everything that happens in Vegas should stay in Vegas.
Los Angeles Chargers
I believe Eric Kendricks will emerge out of the preseason as the primary LB.
This year, I'm prepared to pay a premium for Derwin James — an investment I seldom make for defensive backs. If I’m wrong, there’s always this year’s Jonathan Owens or Julian Love on the waiver wire. “How would I find one of those, Justin?” Great question! Why, in my weekly IDP Waiver Wire article, naturally.
Los Angeles Rams
With no support, Aaron Donald's path to dominate the IDP landscape is tough to buy into. He's likely to attract a ton of triple teams again, which caps his fantasy value. He did so much damage with even one good DL next to him a few years ago. This year, he’s got [checks notes] rookie Kobie Turner and Byron Young. Oh, and Bobby Brown. Talk about being cruel [pause for laughter].
Miami Dolphins
This is a talented group. I'm excited to see what new DC Vic Fangio does with them. Miami's 2022 D blitzed a ton. Fangio historically blitzes rarely. With Jalen Ramsey missing a few months with his knee injury, that shuffles things up a bit. In better knee injury news, Brandon Jones returned to practice for the first time since his season-ending injury.
Jerome Baker and David Long under Fangio will be fun to watch. Given Miami’s recent obsession with Belichickian defenses — known for killing LB fantasy value — anything is an upgrade for their fantasy prospects.
Minnesota Vikings
Speaking of Belichickian defenses, Bill Belichick's protege Brian Flores takes over as DC in Minnesota, which is great for their front four, but usually bad for LBs. Of course, we don’t know if Flores will bring that same scheme to Minnesota, but he likely will. That would sink Jordan Hicks' already declining value. If he ends up functioning like Flores' previous LBs, he could land in LB3/LB4 territory. Brian Asamoah shined in limited usage last season. If Flores' system doesn't snuff out his value, he could be a sneaky late-round grab.
New England Patriots
New England's CB situation is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. All I know is, I’m betting on Jones being one of the starters.
You see, Billy, the Patriots have 3 corners with the last name of Jones.
With Devin McCourty retiring, the new 3-safety set will be Kyle Dugger, Jabrill Peppers, and Adrian Phillips. They are listed in order of fantasy value for now. But preseason alignments may change that.
New Orleans Saints
Demario Davis' lower tackle numbers last season remain a conundrum. He played well and played a lot. It’s likely bad luck, or perhaps his on-field assignments put him in bad positions to be near the ball. The Pete Werner/Zach Baun saga continues, though I still lean toward Werner. I’m hoping to see something clear from the preseason concerning their usage.
New York Giants
Wink Martindale didn’t like any of his ILBs last year. Hence the reliance on safety Julian Love (now with Seattle). Hopefully, Bobby Okereke turns that around. You’d assume so since they signed him as a free agent.
Will Rookie CB Deonte Banks (24th overall) be a full-time player? Xavier McKinney was a 5-8 tackle safety before that unfortunate ATV accident.
New York Jets
The D-Line for the Jets is stacked, deep, and looking impressive. Quinnen Williams was a stud last season. The team also added another excellent EDGE prospect in Will McDonald IV, which makes the rotation even more formidable. But the heavy rotation also lowers everyone’s ceiling a bit.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are in a similar situation to the Jets. They have a stacked D-line that uses a heavy rotation, and they also picked up their own stud rookie DL in Jalen Carter. Carter joins his former University of Georgia D-linemate Jordan Davis.
Although he barely played last year, Nakobe Dean should be the main man on this defense now. Nicholas Morrow is essentially just there because he's familiar with new DC Sean Desai's scheme. But it won’t be much different than the scheme Dean played last year under Jonathan Gannon. After all, it took them to the Super Bowl. But if the preseason shows us Morrow is wearing the green dot (i.e. playing every down as the defensive play-caller), we’ll have to change tack.
The safety situation in Philly has a few question marks. Terrell Edmunds is a new addition, and Sydney Brown is a rookie. Then there's also Reed Blankenship, who will work in as well. Do we get any hints as to Brown’s early-season usage?
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh seems like an ideal spot for Cole Holcomb as the primary LB. He’s not Ryan Shazier, but he’s much closer than their last several attempts.
I expect the Steelers to persist with the single-high approach, preferring to keep Minkah Fitzpatrick at deep safety. If so, this opens up an opportunity for the lucky one who claims the SS spot out of Damontae Kazee, Keanu Neal, or longshots Elijah Riley, Tre Norwood, and Kenny Robinson, Jr.
1st-round CB Joey Porter, Jr. could earn a Week 1 start if his preseason goes well.
San Francisco 49ers
Talanoa Hufanga's sophomore year is shaping up to be an exciting one to watch. How will new DC Steve Wilks utilize him? A new defensive coordinator always raises questions about secondary roles.
I like Javon Hargrave here. He flourished in a heavy rotation in Philly last season and now has an arguably more talented D-line around him — not including Clelin Ferrell. See? I’m still not over it.
Seattle Seahawks
Bobby Wagner is back with Jordyn Brooks in Seattle. While this move may put a slight damper on both of their tackle prospects as opposed to if they were primary LBs on separate teams, they do still carry substantial upside. Devin Bush is also here, presumably providing support as Brooks recovers from his ACL tear. Brooks is still on the mend, with a September/October timeline for his return.
Can Jamal Adams get healthy and stay healthy? We haven’t seen him dominate in a few years. He actually looked GREAT in his only game of action last season. I sat up when he flashed his pursuit skills, and then a few plays later…
Julian Love’s role is also a question mark — does he feature significantly in Big Nickel sets? Or is he around because Brooks has coverage issues and Adams can’t stay healthy?
Both Brooks and Adams start the season on the PUP list. Adams makes an excellent later-round dart.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ryan Neal could be a great fit here, enabling Antoine Winfield, Jr. to be deployed deeper in the field. How will these two function in the preseason?
I know Lavonte David is old, but he still looked fantastic last year. He’s probably not 52, but it seems like he’s been in the league since Zach Thomas. I continue to have my doubts about Devin White, who looked worse last year than in 2021. But there’s no one else behind him. Any potential tinkering with White’s role should show up in the preseason.
Tennessee Titans
Azeez Al-Shaair should be the primary LB in Tennessee. Also, Kevin Byard remains a consistently good fantasy asset, offering steady DB1 performance with 90-100 tackles and 4-5 interceptions annually.
Washington Commanders
Jamin Davis showed signs of improvement in the latter part of last year. Will he keep up the momentum? Cody Barton had a disappointing run with Seattle last season, while Kamren Curl was nothing short of a stud. Despite playing only 12 games, Kurl amassed 83 tackles. If he had maintained this pace over a full 17-game season, he would've ended up fourth in DB tackles, with 116.
I’ll check back in after we see some preseason action!
