For the 15th year in a year, I got too detailed in this column over the last month or so, but I find it very hard to not explain why I like players each week.
But I’m chopping it down starting now and presenting just the raw facts. If you want more, you can always read our Week 9 Game Hubs.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (3-4) AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (5-2)
Players I like more than usual: Marquise Brown, Lamar Jackson, Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, Kirk Cousins
Players I’m neutral on: Dalvin Cook, Mark Andrews
Players I like less than usual: None of note
Longshot Plays: Devonta Freeman, Rashod Bateman (check status)
Notes: 50 points expected in this one and both secondaries are beatable. The Ravens play a lot of man coverage, which is usually good news for Kirk Cousins and Adam Theilen, and I also like Justin Jefferson’s chances of coming up with a big game. The Ravens have been bad against TEs as well, so Tyler Conklin looks like a good option. Tough matchup for Dalvin Cook, as the Ravens have yet to allow an individual back to reach 60+ rushing yards, But they do give up TDs and his OC talked about getting him going with more touches.
Lamar Jackson won’t have to worry about Vikings DE Danielle Hunter, who is out for the season. DT Michael Pierce, their best interior guy, is also out. The Vikings are struggling at corner, so I like Marquise Brown to have a big day, and I would also really like Rashod Bateman, but he missed practice Friday with a groin issue (expected to play). Sammy Watkins should return as well (check inactives). The Vikings have been solid against TEs this year, so this may not be a big Mark Andrew game. Latavius Murray is out, so it really sets up for Devonta Freeman to get 10-15 opportunities. The Vikings are giving up the eighth-most rushing yards per game (103.7) and 4.5 YPC to the position.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (4-4) AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (4-4)
Players I like more than usual: Damien Harris
Players I’m neutral on: Hunter Henry/Jonnu Smith
Players I like less than usual: DJ Moore, Jakobi Meyers, Mac Jones, Sam Darnold
Longshot Plays: Rhamondre Stevenson
Notes: An uninspiring expected total of 41 in this one and nothing stands out to me other than Damien Harris in a game that should afford him 15+ carries. Otherwise, the Panthers defense is healthier now with CB Stefon Gilmore already playing well. The Panthers give up the fourth-fewest points out of the slot, bad news for Jakobi Meyers, and I don’t trust any of the Patriots outside receivers. I don’t see Mac Jones having to do too much in this one. The Panthers are also good against the TE, so it’s hard to love Hunter Henry/Jonnu Smith, so they are a desperation play only.
Sam Darnold is going to start, but there is no way in hell I can endorse him against a Patriots defense that handled Justin Herbert last week. Darnold has ruined DJ Moore, and the Pats this week were talking Moore up. They may look to take him out knowing Robby Anderson is a lost cause. Terrace Marshall should return, and they could use a spark. Christian McCaffrey’s status will be determined likely by 1130 ET, but expect a scaled back workload if he’s active. If he’s out, then Chubba Hubbard is appealing with 15+ opportunities.
CLEVELAND BROWNS (4-4) AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (5-3)
Players I like more than usual: Jarvis Landry, Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase
Players I’m neutral on: Nick Chubb, Baker Mayfield, C.J. Uzomah, Tyler Boyd
Players I like less than usual: Joe Mixon
Longshot Plays: Donovan Peoples-Jones
Notes: A decent total of 47 here in this divisional matchup. I like Jarvis Landry to post top-20 digits with 10+ targets likely as the top option. Otherwise, the Browns receivers are still a nightmare. The best guy to bet on is Donovan Peoples-Jones in OBJ’s role, and they do love him. He’s also just coming back from his groin injury. Baker Mayfield did post 516/7 passing in two games against the Bengals last season, and Cincy was terrible against Mike White last week, but Baker is still tough to trust. Nick Chubb’s snap share (56%) remained unchanged even with Kareem Hunt out, and the Bengals have been good against the run, so I’m not expecting a big game. TE Harrison Smith is out, which does help Austin Hooper and David Njoku’s chances.
You’re still rolling and looking fine with Joe Burrow, who threw for 3 TDs in both games against the Browns last season with 722 total passing yards. It’s a tougher matchup for Joe Mixon, so Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd will have to come through. Higgins’ play last week was very encouraging, so I like him this week. The Browns have been good covering the slot, so Boyd could be the odd man out. C.J. Uzomah scored in Weeks 4-7 with 3+ catches in four of his last five games. He’s a solid top-12 option in a matchup Pat Freiermuth posted 4/44/1 in last week.
DENVER BRONCOS (4-4) AT DALLAS COWBOYS (6-1)
Players I like more than usual: Ezekiel Elliott, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Dak Prescott, Jerry Jeudy
Players I’m neutral on: Melvin Gordon, Javonte Williams, Teddy Bridgewater
Players I like less than usual: Courtland Sutton
Longshot Plays: Albert Okwuegbunam, Tim Patrick
Notes: The matchup is tough on the ground for RBs Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams, so the best you can hope for is they get catches. Williams has been a little better in that regard. I don’t totally trust Teddy Bridgewater, but he does excel against Cover 1, which Dallas plays more than anyone. I also do like Jerry Jeudy with a plus matchup in the slot, especially with Courtland Sutton outside on CB Trevon Diggs often. Tim Patrick actually led the Broncos in routes (29) and yards (64) last week and he could be a sneaky play with snaps on CB Anthony Brown, if desperate. I do like Albert Okwuegbunam (who does have a knee issue) as the Cowboys give up the fifth-most FP/T, the sixth-most YP/T, and the 11th-most EPA per target against TEs.
Other than their injury concerns, I like Dak Prescott (calf), CeeDee Lamb (ankle), and Amari Cooper in this one, plus TE Blake Jarwin is out, good news for Dalton Schultz. The word Sunday morning is Dak is full go with no limitations. Denver just lost CB Bryce Callahan, who was the glue to this secondary inside, and Michael Gallup won’t play, which helps Lamb and Cooper’s chances. They also just traded LB Von Miller. Ezekiel Elliott is looking good as nine-point home favorites against an injury-ravaged Broncos’ run defense that had been crushed in recent weeks. Over their last four games, they are giving up 4.8 YPC and 26/124/1 rushing to RBs along with 5.8/59.5/.5 receiving, good for 33 FPG.
BUFFALO BILLS (5-2) AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (1-6)
Players I like more than usual: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Zack Moss
Players I’m neutral on: Devin Singletary, Tommy Sweeney
Players I like less than usual: James Robinson, Marvin Jones, Trevor Lawrence, Jamal Agnew, Laviska Shenault
Longshot Plays: Gabiel Davis, Dan Arnold
Notes: Josh Allen is a God right now and this putrid Jaguar defense just allowed Geno Smith to lead the league with a 128.3 passer rating last week. Over the last four weeks, QBs are completing 74% of their passes against this defense for 8.7 YPA. Allen will eat as long as they want him to eat. But make sure you check on this covid situation in the Bills’ QB room. Stefon Diggs could go ballistic against their man-heavy defense, as he’s at his best against man, but I also like Emmanuel Sanders with Cole Beasley banged up and Dawson Knox out again. Beasley’s a solid play if he’s active, as the Jags give up the 11th-most FPG to slot receivers. Also, Gabriel Davis is in play after scoring last week. The Bills are 14.5 road favorites, which has to be good news for Zack Moss, who has outsnapped Devin Singletary nearly 2-to-1 over their last three games and is their clear goal line back. Tommy Sweeney is a viable hail mary play since the Jaguars are giving up the seventh-most FPG (15.9) to TEs this season.
The matchup is absolutely brutal for Trevor Lawrence and the Jags, who have a banged up RB James Robinson this week. He has a tricky heel injury and was only limited Friday, but he’s expected to go (but is a GTD). If not in, or he has problems, Carlos Hyde is standing by with a little Dare Ogunbowale. You can’t trust Marvin Jones with such a tough matchup, and Laviska Shenault can be cut. You can’t even feel good about new receiving sensation Jamal Agnew, since the Bills have a good slot corner and allowed just 4/29 receiving on 12 targets to Jaylen Waddle last week. Needless to say, this is a tough spot for Lawrence, but he might keep throwing to Dan Arnold, who had a big game last week and has 5+ targets in three straight games.
HOUSTON TEXANS (1-7) AT MIAMI DOLPHINS (1-7)
Players I like more than usual: Tyrod Taylor, Brandin Cooks, Mike Gesicki, Myles Gaskin
Players I’m neutral on: Jaylen Waddle, Tua Tagovailoa (inj)
Players I like less than usual:
Longshot Plays: Rex Burkhead
Notes: It’s a fairly promising total of 46.5 in this one, and I like Tyrod Taylor, who has owned Miami in his career. They play a lot of Cover 1, which is a coverage shell that Taylor has beaten for 67% of his TDs in his career. I also like Taylor to run in this one. Brandin Cooks is looking good right along with him. Nico Collins has 10/127 receiving on 15 targets in Weeks 6-8 and he gets a QB upgrade in Taylor, so he’s a viable longshot. The backfield is a disaster, but my gut feeling is that Rex Burkhead continues to produce, FWIW.
Miami will presumably have Tua Tagovailoa, who has proven he needs good matchups to produce (and he can produce in them). This is a good one, as the Texans have given up multiple TD passes in three straight games, but he won’t have DaVante Parker. That does mean Mike Gesicki will be busy, though. The Texans right now surrender the sixth-most FPG (16.7) to the position, the third-most FP per target and EP per target. You can certainly look to Jaylen Waddle if you need him since Miami will need him, but the Texans do have a good slot corner and usually limit slot production, although they are middling right now. Myles Gaskin at least last week saw 15+ touches for the second straight game, and the Texans are giving up the second-most rushing yards per game (129.3) and the 10th-most FPG (26.3) to this position.
ATLANTA FALCONS (3-4) AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (5-2)
Players I like more than usual: Cordarrelle Patterson
Players I’m neutral on: Alvin Kamara
Players I like less than usual: Kyle Pitts, Matt Ryan, Mike Davis
Longshot Plays: None of note
Notes: A weak total of 41 does not bode well, and other than Cordarrelle Patterson, the Falcons offense is completely lame. Patterson is running routes, getting carries, and producing and I think he will do it again this week, since I expect the Saints to focus on stopping Kyle Pitts, perhaps with top corner Marshawn Lattimore. Pitts got shadowed by CB Stefon Gilmore last week and it worked. Per Wes Huber, Patterson leads all Falcons’ WRs 0.55 FP/Rt against Cover 1, which the Saints run at the second-highest rate in the league. Otherwise, it’s a brutal matchup against a deep CB group for Matt Ryan who is working with a brutal WRBC without Calvin Ridley. Also, Mike Davis looks dead.
Things aren’t looking much better for the Saints, who will start Trevor Siemian. But they may not finish with Siemian with Taysom Hill lurking, so neither QB can be used nor can their receivers, not that you’d want to use them anyway. Last week, Marquez Callaway (31) and Adam Trautman (30) ran the most routes, Deonte Harris saw the most targets (7), Tre’Quan Smith scored the lone touchdown, and Kevin White led Saints in receiving yards (38). That is brutal. Oh, and Alvin Kamara saw a season-low 67% of the snaps in his first game with Mark Ingram back in the mix! And now Taysom is around to vulture some TDs! Thanks Sean!
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (5-2) AT NEW YORK GIANTS (2-6)
Players I like more than usual: Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, Kadarius Toney, Devontae Booker
Players I’m neutral on: Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow
Players I like less than usual: Kenny Golladay
Longshot Plays: Bryan Edwards
Notes: The Giants defense played better last week, but they’re a zone-heavy team like the Eagles, who Derek Carr completed 91% of his passes against in their last game. Carr threw for 315+ yards in nine of his last 11 full games and the Giants gave up 20+ FP to opposing QBs in five of their first six games before facing a struggling Patrick Mahomes and Sam Darnold the last two weeks. Bryan Edwards will get a nice bump in usage with Henry Ruggs gone and Edwards has actually run the most routes per game (33.6) among Raiders WRs this season. Edwards is both a downfield and red zone threat, and the Giants are giving up the eight-most PFG to outside WRs this season. They have been good in the slot, but Hunter Renfrow will get his 4-6 catches. The Giants have been average against TEs, but Darren Waller’s a good bet to step up this week with Ruggs out. Josh Jacobs is not on the injury report, so I presume he’s fine. His usage has been good and The Giants are giving up 4.5 YPC and the fifth-most rushing yards per game (109.8) to RBs this season.
The Giants won’t have Saquon Barkley, so it’s all Devontae Booker again and he’s looking like a solid play for sure, as his fantasy production has risen in each of his three starts for Barkley and the Raiders are giving up 4.5 YPC and the 11th-most FPG (26.0) to RBs. Our Wes Huber likes the matchup for Kadarius Toney from a coverage perspective, and against the youngster Nate Hobbs and I could absolutely see a 6-catch game from Toney, and he’s a major threat to take it all the way when he touches it. Kenny Golladay should play, so Toney will be in the slot a lot for Sterling Shepard, who is also out. Golladay would have the tough matchup outside against Casey Hayward at times. You can use Evan Engram if desperate. He had a season-best 10.5 FP last week with a TD and the Raiders have given up the fifth-most FPG (16.8) to TEs this season.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (4-3) AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (3-5)
Players I like more than usual: Dallas Goedert, Justin Herbert, Austin Eckler
Players I’m neutral on: Jalen Hurts,Boston Scott, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen
Players I like less than usual: Jordan Howard
Longshot Plays: Kenny Gainwell, Jared Cook
Notes: We do have an expected total of 50 points, so that’s good. That could be a function of 2 of the top-3 CBs for the Chargers being out. That really helps Jalen Hurts’ chances because I was not feeling good about this matchup for him. I still don’t trust him much, and I don’t trust Devonta Smith unless desperate. I do, however, like Dallas Goedert, who has reached 70+ receiving yards in each of his first two games without Zach Ertz. The Chargers had given up 15+ FP in five of their first six games before limiting the Patriots TEs last week. Just when you think you can use Jordan Howard or Boston Scott is probably when you can’t, so I would not be surprised if Philly fell behind and it became a Kenny Gainwell game.
Apparently, Justin Herbert isn’t great against Cover 1, but luckily for him this week the Eagles have barely played that. However, they are changing up their defense and they may play more man in this one. If so, Darius Slay could be on Mike Williams a lot. That’s an angle for Keenan Allen, although slot CB Avonte Maddox has been solid. Philly can be vulnerable to the TE, so Jared Cook is in the steamer mix for me. Philly gives up the third-highest catch rate and eighth-most FP/T to TEs this year. The Eagles did stop D’Andre Swift last week, but Austin Eckler is still looking fine with Philly still giving up the second-most FPG (30.6) to RBs.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (7-1) AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (4-4)
Players I like more than usual: Aaron Jones, Tyreek Hill
Players I’m neutral on: Jordan Love, Davante Adams, Patrick Mahomes, Darrel Williams, Travis Kelce
Players I like less than usual: Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Randall Cobb
Longshot Plays: A.J. Dillon
Notes: I’m a little surprised the total for this game is still 48 with QB Jordan Love having to start for the Packers. I think it’s going to be a struggle for Love against DC Steve Spagnulo in KC, but he is talented, and he will run. He will have Davante Adams and Allen Lazard, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Randall Cobb. but that’s a lot of dues in the mix with less production to go around. I’d be happy if Adams got like 5/55/1, honestly, but the Chiefs have given up by far the most 40+ yard passing plays this season, so there is hope. Green Bay will likely try to play like they did last week, and the struggling KC offense could help them stay committed to the run. So prepare for a lot of Aaron Jones and as much A.J. Dillon as possible. Devontae Booker looked great against this defense last week with 15/60 rushing and 5/65 receiving.
Patrick Mahomes has been a big part of the problem lately, and he’s now finished under 6.0 YPA in three of his last four games. They are trying to play through their struggles, but in the meantime these guys are all a lot less appealing. The Packers limited Kyler Murray to 274 scoreless yards and 11.1 FP with the Cardinals scoring just 21 points overall, so lower expectations for Mahomes. Travis Kelce should have scored last week, at least, and the Packers have allowed three straight low-end TEs (Ertz, RSJ, Kmet) to post 4+ catches and 40+ yards. Tyreek Hill saw 18 targets last week, and several playmaking WRs have gone off in this matchup, so Hill may be just fine. Those with Darrel Williams do have to worry about Derrick Gore now, but Gore did just play 20% of the snaps last week. Williams still played 64% of the snaps and had 19 touches. Chase Edmonds and James Conner ran for three TDs last week in this matchup.
ARIZONA CARDINALS (7-1) AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (3-4)
Players I like more than usual: Christian Kirk, Rondale Moore
Players I’m neutral on: Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Jimmy Garoppolo, James Conner, Chase Edmunds
Players I like less than usual: Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins
Longshot Plays: Brandon Aiyuk
Notes: We have some serious injury concerns in this one on both sides, and it’s 4:25 ET kickoff, so the inactives won’t come down until 3pm ET. Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins didn’t practice all week and can only be described as risky as GTDs. Hopkins is apparently in real danger of missing the game. Murray had his second-worst fantasy performance (13.7 FP) against the 49ers in Week 5 with 239/1 passing and seven carries for one rushing yard. If he goes, he won’t likely run at all. If Hopkins goes, his routes could be limited as they unwisely had him run a deep route that aggravated the hammy. If Murray goes then Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore would be looking better than usual with A.J. Green (COVID) out this week. Moore had 5/59 receiving and 3/38 rushing in that Week 5 game. The 49ers are tough on TEs, but if Murray goes I’d expect Zach Ertz to catch 4-5 balls. The Cards are 3-point dogs and their RBs may have a tough go. Chase Edmonds managed just 9/34 scrimmage playing through a shoulder injury and James Conner posted 11/37/1 scrimmage in this matchup earlier this season. They should do a little better than that, and it could be an Edmunds game if the 49er offense clicks and scores points.
The 49ers have a potential issue at RB with Elijah Mitchell dealing with a rib issue, and fantasy people have to be concerned with Jeff Wilson being elevated and available along with JaMycal Hasty and possibly others. If Mitchell is active, as expected, he’s worth playing based on his recent play, which has been outstanding. The Cardinals did also hold Mitchell to just 9/43 rushing in Week 5, but they are cooking now. They should get a boost from George Kittle, but the Cards cough up the fewest FPG (6.3) to TEs this season, so I’d lower expectations with the long layoff. Kitte’s snaps will be limited, per reports. Deebo Samuel is playing lights-out with his calf injury, but it’s worse than ever this week (expected to play). That could open things up for Brandon Aiyuk, who is clearly coming on. Jimmy Garoppolo is coming off his best game of the season, and you could do worse for a fill-in starter this week, despite the so-so matchup.
TENNESSEE TITANS (6-2) AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (7-1)
Players I like more than usual: Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp. Robert Woods
Players I’m neutral on: AJ Brown, Darrell Henderson
Players I like less than usual: Julio Jones, Adrian Peterson
Longshot Plays: Jeremy McNichols, Van Jefferson
Notes: We do have a nice juice total of 52-53 expected here, which is great. The Titans are 7-point dogs on the road, so Ryan Tannehill will have to air it out, which is a little scary. He will have Julio Jones, at least, and AJ Brown is red hot. I’d bet Tannehill will run a little more as well. Adrian Peterson should get 10+ carries, but Jeremy McNichols should get 10+ PPR points with the Titans playing from behind.
The Titans defense and pass rush has been a lot better lately, but otherwise, this matchup is as good as it gets for the Rams passing game and Matthew Stafford. The Titans are giving up a league-high 16.5 catches and 216.0 receiving yards per game to WRs, including the the most FGP to slot WRs, so Cooper Kupp is looking much better than usual, which is scary, and Robert Woods if he can play through a hand injury, has blow up potential. The Titans are usually good against TEs, so Van Jefferson should be active. It’s not the greatest matchup on the ground, but Darrell Henderson has owned the backfield and will get 15-20 touches, per usual.
CHICAGO BEARS (3-5) AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (4-3)
Players I like more than usual: Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool
Players I’m neutral on: Pat Friermuth, Ben Roethlisberger, Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney
Players I like less than usual: Allen Robinson
Longshot Plays: Cole Kmet
Notes: Not loving this one for fantasy for the Bears, who will welcome David Mongomery back to cloud up the backfield. Damien Williams is at least out. But the Steelers limited Nick Chubb to 16/61 rushing last week, and they’re giving up the sixth-fewest FPG (19.4) to RBs this season, so it’s not a good matchup. Justin Fields is really hard to trust in this spot, but Fields was a lot better last week and he ran, so he’s not hopeless. We just wish HC Matt Nagy (COVID) was still away from the team, but he’s back. The Steelers are actually giving up the 11th-most FPG (38.2) to WRs, so Darnell Mooney isn’t a lost cause. He’s the guy, the only guy to possibly count on. Maybe Cole Kmet on the low-end, but the Steelers haven’t allowed an opposing TE to reach double-digit FP since Week 2.
The Steelers offense actually starts with Najee Harris, and the Bears have given up 17+ FP to individual RBs in four straight games, including Eli Mitchell, who hung 18/137/1 rushing against Chicago last week. The Bears have allowed 23+ FP and multiple TDs to three consecutive quarterbacks, which is at least good news for Diontae Johnson. Johnson could see a lot of top corner Jaylen Johnson, which could be an angle for Chase Claypool. The Bears are giving up the fifth-most FPG (41.6) to WRs, so it’s a decent matchup. The Bears are giving up the second-fewest FPG (6.7) to TEs, but they haven’t faced the toughest schedule of TEs, and Pat Friermuth is the man again this week with Eric Ebron out.
