The goal here is to give you everything of note I have for a given week - in a 5-minute read. If I feel strongly about something good or bad, I’ll address it in the notes section.
Carolina Panthers (3-4) at Atlanta Falcons (3-3)
Players I like more than usual: Matt Ryan, Kyle Pitts, Cordarrelle Patterson, DJ Moore
Players I’m neutral on: Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, Chubba Hubbard, Robby Anderson
Players I like less than usual: Sam Darnold, Mike Davis
Longshot Plays:
Notes: Considering he got pulled last week, I have little confidence in Sam Darnold, but this is a beatable matchup. The Falcons have given up 260+ passing yards and 3+ passing TDs in 4-of-6 games, including 291/4 passing to Tua Tagovailoa last week. Darnold is hurting D.J. Moore, but DJ’s hanging in there while Robby Anderson has been a nightmare. Terrace Marshall is out, so it’s all Moore, who has 5+ catches and 10+ targets in every game. If you’re desperate, Robby did post a combined 13/160 receiving on 20 targets against the Falcons last season. I liked him last week, but Chuba Hubbard proved he was a JAG, and his numbers are getting worse. The Falcons are giving up 4.0 YPC and the seventh-most FPG (26.8) to the position this season.
Matt Ryan is averaging 42 attempts and 301 passing yards per game over his last five games. The Panthers will get CB Stephon Gilmore this week, but they’re still thinned in the secondary and per our guy Wes Huber, Ryan excels with 24+ FPG vs. the two main coverage shells the Panthers are running this year, including Cover 1 (man), which is great news for Kyle Pitts. You have to keep starting Calvin Ridley, even though he’s been dealing with some mental health issues, per reports. Ridley has at least seen double-digit targets in each of his last four games, and he posted a combined 11/178 receiving on 14 targets in two games against the Panthers last season. Russell Gage was quite helpful last week with 4/67/1 on six targets, and Dante Pettis posted 5/39/1 receiving in this matchup last week as a primary slot receiver. Mike Davis is damn near a lost cause right now and he could even start losing snaps to Wayne Gallman at this point. But Cordarrelle Patterson’s role is only growing with a season-best snap share (73%) for the second straight game last week. He’s all over the place and nearly impossible to sit.
Miami Dolphins (1-6) at Buffalo Bills (4-2)
Players I like more than usual: Mike Gesicki, Myles Gaskin, Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Zach Moss
Players I’m neutral on: Jaylen Waddle
Players I like less than usual: Tua Tagovailoa, DeVante Parker
Longshot Plays: Cole Beasley
Notes: This is a brutal spot for Tua Tagovailoa, as the Bills are giving up league-lows in passing yards per game (192.8) and FPG (13.0) to QBs so far. Tua won’t have WR Preston Williams, so I assume DeVante Parker will play, but he’s a desperation play only, since he's not healthy. Tua will have to get some garbage time production, which is possible since he’s throwing it so much. Jaylen Waddle has had his best two days this year the last two weeks with Tua, and he should be good for 6-7 grabs at least (for not many yards). Mike Gesicki has been a big slot receiver essentially, and it’s working out well. He managed 3/41 receiving on six targets in this matchup early in the season, but he crushed this defense last year and is looking like a top-5 option. I think Myles Gaskin will do well this week. He had 63% snap share last week, and he’s caught 14 balls in this matchup his last three.
Despite a season-low 17.7 FP in a blowout victory over the Dolphins in Week 2, Josh Allen is still averaging 24.1 FPG in this matchup dating back to 2020. He’s also still averaging 3 TD passes a game in that span. They play a lot of man coverage, which he and Stefon Diggs shred, and Miami’s pass rush and secondary play is definitely worse now than that Week 2 matchup. Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley (despite his poor history in this matchup) are also looking good with Dawson Knox out and a good matchup inside with the Dolphins giving up the third-most FPG to slot receivers. I would not want to try out backup TE Tommy Sweeney, FYI. Zach Moss had 12+ FP in four straight games before Week 6, which was a buzzkill. But they seem to pit him and Devin Singletary against each other week-to-week by giving the other more carries, so Moss is now due. Moss may finally get a chance to close out a game with volume, as the Bills are 14-point home favorites.
San Francisco 49ers (2-4) at Chicago Bears (3-4)
Players I like more than usual: Elijah Mitchell
Players I’m neutral on: Deebo Samuel, Khalil Herbert
Players I like less than usual: Jimmy Garoppolo, Brandon Aiyuk, Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney, and Allen Robinson.
Longshot Plays: None of note.
Notes: 49ers RB Elijah Mitchell is obviously the guy, and he played 66% of the snaps last week, and he’s been above a 60% snap share in every game he’s been active. He won’t get more than 1-2 targets a game with JaMycal Hasty in his passing-down role, but the Bears are giving up a generous 4.7 YPC and the seventh-most rushing yards per game (108.9) to RBs this season. And it’s highly unlikely the 49ers will need much from their RBs in the passing game against that dreadful Bears offense. Deebo Samuel has 16+ FP in 5-of-6 games and he leads the league with a 37% target share. The Bears could put top corner Jalen Johnson on him, but Johnson got ripped by Mike Evans last week. It does feel like a spot where someone else needs to step up, but you just can’t trust Brandon Aiyuk unless extremely desperate. Jimmy Garoppolo has been a fantasy flop and could be pulled at any time with Trey Lance healthier.
The Bears offense is obviously brutal, and the only good thing is that they have no choice but to stay committed to their running game, and Khalil Herbert is the guy. He played on 77% of the snaps last week, which should continue because he’s better than Damien Williams. Williams is another week removed from the covid-list, so it’s not a lock Herbert delivers again, though. The 49ers just gave up 18/107/1 rushing to Jonathan Taylor in sloppy conditions. How sad is this? Cole Kmet may be their best fantasy option in the passing game. He has 9/92 receiving on 11 targets in the last two weeks. But considering how poorly Justin Fields has been, it’s fantasy suicide using him, Darnell Mooney, and Allen Robinson. The 49ers are also giving up the 12th-fewest FPG (35.8) to WRs. Oh joy.
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3) at Cleveland Browns (4-3)
Players I like more than usual: Diontae Johnson, Nick Chubb
Players I’m neutral on: Najee Harris, Chase Claypool
Players I like less than usual: Ben Roethlisberger, Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham
Longshot Plays: Pat Freiermuth
Notes: Najee Harris has 21+ FP in four straight, and those 9.5 targets per game may come in handy against the tough Browns run defense, one that has given up 3 TDs in the passing game to RBs the last four weeks, including two to Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon, who combined for 20/84/2 scrimmage last week. Diontae Johnson has had some tougher matchups this year, but he’s been good with a 32% target share in four-of-five games with 14+ FP in every game this year. He had 11/117 receiving on 16 targets against this defense in the playoffs last year. Diontae won’t also have to square off with top corner Denzel Ward, who is out, which is big. Ben Roethlisberger has failed to reach 18+ FP in each of his first six games, so he’s a low-end guy all the way. Chase Claypool posted just 2/17 receiving on seven targets in his first game without JuJu Smith-Schuster on the field in Week 6, but he did hit 11+ FP in all three games against the Browns last season, including a 5/59/2 game with Big Ben. Eric Ebron is out, so it is Pat Freiermuth time. The rookie had his best game in their last game, which was JuJu’s first game out of the lineup. He caught all seven of his targets for 58 yards. The Browns have been tough on TEs this year, but he’s a viable long-shot play.
The Browns passing game is a mess, so Nick Chubb is the only Browns player I want to consider this week. He will give way to D’Ernest Johnson at times, but Chubb is looking at clear RB1 production with his snaps going up with Kareen Hunt out. Believe it or not, Seahawks’ RBs gashed the Steelers for 26/145/1 rushing and 5.6 YPC in their last game, and the Steelers won’t be getting DL Stephon Tuitt (knee, IR) back this week. Baker Mayfield is going to start, but he’s dealing with a fracture in his non-throwing shoulder in addition to his torn labrum in his throwing shoulder, and he’s been completely unreliable this year even when healthy. Jarvis Landry (knee) and Odell Beckham (shoulder) are both playing hurt and offer little tangible upside. The Browns literally have one viable player this week in Chubb.
Philadelphia Eagles (2-5) at Detroit Lions (0-7)
Players I like more than usual: Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Kenneth Gainwell, D’Andre Swift, TJ Hockenson
Players I’m neutral on: None of note
Players I like less than usual: Kalif Raymond, Amon-Ra St. Brown
Longshot Plays: Jalen Reagor, Quez Watkins, Jared Goff, Jamaal Williams
Notes: The matchup could not be any better for Jalen Hurts against the pitiful Lions secondary, one that’s giving up a 69% completion rate and 9.1 YPA over the last four weeks. The Lions have given up three TD passes to Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow the last two weeks. The Lions are giving up 104.6 yards a game to outside WRs, second-most in the league, and they lead the league in giving up a 14.9 aDot to outside WRs, most in the league. DeVonta Smith has shown some downside, but he has 100+ yards and a TD upside for sure in this one. You can certainly consider either Jalen Reagor or Quez Watkins as viable upside plays if you need one. Reagor had only two targets last week, but he played 80% of the snaps and scored. Watkins doubled him up with 4 targets, but only 72% of the snaps. Dallas Goedert posted season-highs in targets (5), yards (70), and snap share (93%) in his first game without Zach Ertz last week and certainly looks better than usual here, as the Lions give up the fourth-highest YPT number against TEs and the fifth-highest EPA per attempt to TEs. Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott will take over the backfield with Miles Sanders (ankle) out, but Jordan Howard will be there lurking as a potential TD vulture. Gainwell has done well near the goal, though, so he’s a good play with Scott being a viable desperate play with 10+ opportunities coming.
Jared Goff is struggling the last 4-5 weeks, but he should be able to compile a decent stat line against this very giving Eagles defense. Their secondary looks to take away big plays, but they also give up a league-high 74.4% completion percentage. Last week, Derek Carr completed an incredible 91.2% of his passes, so Goff should be able to get the ball to TJ Hockenson and the RBs, which should be enough for 15+ points. D’Andre Swift’s snaps are up with at least 73% of the snaps in four straight, and Philly gives up the second-most rushing yards per game (117.1) and 4.5 YPC to RBs this season, plus they are giving up over 7 catches a game to RBs. Philly’s offense should get well with their great matchup, so Swift is looking at another big catch game. By the way, this looks like a great week if you need Jamaal Williams. The Eagles defense is leaving a lot of open spaces in the middle of the field, so TJH could go off while roaming in the middle of the field and the intermediate area. LV’s Foster Moreau came off the bench for 6/606/1 receiving against the Eagles last week after O.J. Howard ripped them for 6/49/1 the previous week, so he’s a very strong play. It’s a sad state of affairs with their WRs and I’d avoid them with CB Darius Slay locking things down outside and Avonte Maddox doing a great job in the slot. So I’d try to avoid Kalif Raymond and Amon-Ra St. Brown, who was a no-show last week.
Los Angeles Rams (6-1) at Houston Texans (1-6)
Players I like more than usual: Darrell Henderson, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee, David Johnson
Players I’m neutral on: Cooper Kupp
Players I like less than usual: Brandin Cooks
Longshot Plays: Van Jefferson
Notes: QB Matthew Stafford has thrown for multiple TDs in 6 of 7, and it’s an easy matchup for sure. It’s just a question of how much he throws it. The Texans do actually have a good slot corner who has helped them give up the sixth-fewest FPG out of the slot, which could funnel some extra looks to Robert Woods and/or Tyler Higbee. Obviously, Cooper Kupp is the WR1 in everything right now, but they also may not have to throw it much. Woods still has a solid 21% share, and I like his chances more than usual. Same for Higbee, especially since the Texans have been bad against TEs all year and have given up a TD to a TE in four straight games. Of course, Van Jefferson saw a season-high seven targets (17% share) last week while playing 94% of the snaps. So he’s clearly the #3 here and they are in 3-WR sets a ton. The Texans defense is as beatable as they come, so I’m back on Darrell Henderson. They give up 5.2 YPC to RBs, second-worst, the most YAC in the league, and the second-most rushing yards. He played 88% of the snaps in a bad game last week, and James Conner and Chase Edmonds combined for 25/145/1 rushing in this matchup last week.
The Texans will start Davis Mills, which is bad news. Brandin Cooks has fallen below double-digit FP in three of his last four games with Mills out of the lineup, and he should see some attention from Jalen Ramsey. If not, he has a chance, but the presence of Ramsey has me bracing for another bad Cooks game. David Johnson is in business now with Mark Ingram gone. Johnson had 7/25 rushing and 5/27 receiving on six targets on 54% of the snaps even with Ingram playing last week, so we’re looking at 15+ opportunities and 70% of the snaps or more. The Rams are actually ninth-worst in EPA per attempt to RBs, per SIS, so Johnson has a chance for 12+ FP. Phillip Lindsay has been absolutely dreadful, but his opportunities should increase for now.
Tennessee Titans (5-2) at Indianapolis Colts (3-4)
Players I like more than usual: AJ Brown, Ryan Tannehill, Carson Wentz, Michael Pittman
Players I’m neutral on: Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Mo Alie-Cox, Zach Pascal
Players I like less than usual: None of note
Longshot Plays: TY Hilton
Notes: The Titans are really easy now. It’s Derrick Henry, AJ Brown, and Ryan Tannehill if you need him. It’s not an easy matchup for Henry, as the Colts are allowing the fourth-fewest FPG (18.6) to RBs this season. He had only 28/113 rushing (4.0 YPC) and 3/31 receiving in this matchup in Week 3, and that was in Tennessee. Still, I like points to be scored in this one, so 1-2 TDs should be coming. Tannehill had his best fantasy game of the season against the Colts in Week 3, with 197/3 passing and 5/56 rushing. I don’t like how he won’t have Julio Jones, but that’s great for Brown, who basically has 15/224/1 on 18 targets his last six quarters against the Bills and Chiefs. Deebo Samuel just ripped the Colts for 7/100/1 receiving last week in the rain. Xavier Rhodes will go with his calf injury, but he’s going to have a lot of problems with Brown. I don’t trust any of their other receivers, especially with Josh Reynolds back involved last week.
The Titans just put the clamps down on Patrick Mahomes, but that was in Tennessee, and KC’s OL isn’t very good blocking for the run nor did they have a running game to help the QB. Carson Wentz has actually been better than Mahomes on film for most of this season and he will have run support with stud Jonathan Taylor, who was brilliant last week. He’s tossed 2 TD passes in four straight and even got back to running with 4/23/1 on the ground last week. If they can protect with their OL, healthier than they have been all year, the Titans secondary is very beatable. I also think this could be a mini-shootout. It’s pretty clear Michael Pittman is the alpha dog here, but they do spread it around. Still, I like Pittman here for sure, even with T.Y. Hilton looking likely to play. Hilton, if you’re desperate, put up a serviceable 8/121/1 in two matchups against the Titans last season. I’m using Mo Alie-Cox in a 14-team league and hoping for the best. He once again ran fewer routes than Jack Doyle (16 to 11) last week, but when they target him, it’s for big plays and TDs. He’s scored in three of his last four games.
Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) at New York Jets (1-5)
Players I like more than usual: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Mixon, Michael Carter
Players I’m neutral on: Tee Higgins
Players I like less than usual: Tyler Boyd
Longshot Plays: Samaje Perine
Notes: Joe Burrow may not have to throw it much, which is a concern, but he crushes the coverages the Jets run, and the Jets have given up 300+ yards and 2 TDs to Mac Jones and Matt Ryan in their last two games. Ja’Marr Chase should eat again again against a lot of man coverage, which he crushes. Joe Mixon’s matchup and situation is obviously very good with them as 11.5-point favorites. The Jets are giving up the second-most carries per game to RBs (28) and the ninth-most rushing yards per game. He’s no lock, but he has 2-TD potential with 100+ rushing yards. Heck, you can definitely consider Samaje Perine if you are desperate, since he’s clearly carved out a role in the passing and running game. Tee Higgins is actually leading the Bengals in target share at 27%, but he’s off to a sloppy start with just 7/62 receiving on 15 targets last week. It’s not a tough matchup, but it’s not a cake one, either. The Jets have been one of the best teams covering the slot, so that’s not good news for Tyler Boyd, who has failed to reach eight FP in each of his last three. C.J. Uzomah has 5 TDs the last four weeks, and the Jets have been ripped by Patriots’ TEs (4/75/1) and Falcons’ TEs (13/159/2) in their last two games.
Some dude named Mike White is starting at QB for the Jets, and he won’t likely have Corey Davis. White at least was able to check it down, completing 20/32 passes for 202 yards. That bodes well for rookie Michael Carter, who played a season-high 73% snap share last week and had season-highs in catches (8), targets (9), yards (104), and FP (17.4). The Bengals are giving up just 3.5 YPC to RBs but they’re giving up the second-most catches per game (7.6) to RBs. I’m not messing with WRs Elijah Moore, Jamison Crowder, Keelan Cole, and Denzell Mims this week because I want to actually win.
New England Patriots (3-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (4-2)
Players I like more than usual: Damien Harris, Hunter Henry, Keenan Allen
Players I’m neutral on: Mac Jones, Austin Eckler, Mike Williams, Justin Herbert
Players I like less than usual: Jakobi Meyers, Jonnu Smith
Longshot Plays: Jared Cook
Notes: It’s a great matchup for Damien Harris against the Chargers, whose 5.39 YPC allowed is the worst in football right now. They’re also the worst in the league in EPA per attempt. Harris has 14+ carries and a TD in three straight with 100+ rushing yards in two straight. The Chargers actually gave up 26/115/3 rushing to the sad Ravens backfield in their last game. If Rhamondre Stevenson is active, we’ll know he has a chance to do something. I’d expect him to play an impactful number of snaps if he’s active, but he’s obviously risky. Mac Jones is playing well and the numbers are coming, but the Chargers are not giving up big plays in the passing game and give up the fifth-fewest FPG (16.3) to QBs this season. That should work out well for Hunter Henry, who has scored in four straight. The Chargers have given up a TE TD in four straight, including 5/68/1 to Mark Andrews in their last game. They also cede the second-highest EPA per attempt to the TE position, and Jonnu Smith may not play. Jakobi Meyers may get 10+ targets, but the Chargers give up the second-fewest catches per game (11.0) to WRs and the fourth-fewest FPG out of the slot. Slot CB Chris Harris is back and is still good.
The Ravens baffled Justin Herbert in their last game, and last year Bill Belichick’s defense completely baffled Herbert, who threw it 53 times with 0 TDs and 2 INTs. Not good. He’s had two weeks to prepare and he’s older and wiser, but I’d lower expectations a tad. The Pats did just lose slot CB Jonathan Jones, which could be a boost for Keenan Allen. Mike Williams played a season-low 36% of the snaps the last time out, but he practiced fully all week, so he should be better off. The Pats have struggled on the outside lately with Corey Davis (4/47/1 receiving) and CeeDee Lamb (9/149/2) putting up numbers against them the last two weeks. The Pats have been good against TEs all year, but I know our guy Wes Huber likes
Jared Cook, they do play a lot of man coverage, which is always good for Cook, who can still beat it. Austin Ekeler is a gametime decision after missing the final two practices of the week with a hip issue, but he told ESPN he will be active. The Patriots are giving up a healthy 6+ catches and 60 receiving yards per game to RBs this season, thanks to Michael Carter (8/67 receiving) and Ty Johnson (6/65) getting action in garbage-time last week.
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) at Seattle Seahawks (2-5)
Players I like more than usual: James Robinson
Players I’m neutral on: Trevor Lawrence, Marvin Jones, Dan Arnold
Players I like less than usual: Laviska Shenault
Longshot Plays: Jamal Agnew
Notes: I do think the Seahawk defense has changed things up the last two weeks and has improved, so I would not be surprised if Trevor Lawrence had a quiet day for fantasy. But he’s playing very well right now, and he’s coming out of a bye. Seattle has given up just a single TD pass to QBs in the last four weeks. It’s not a bad matchup in actuality Marvin Jones, but Seattle is giving up the third-fewest FPG to outside WRs so far this year. They have been bad at covering the slot, but Laviska Shenault has run out of that slot just 21% of the time the last two weeks, and he’s been bad for fantasy. Jamal Agnew may actually be the sleeper play here based on Seattle’s record vs slot WRs this year. Perhaps Dan Arnold can make a play out of the slot, and he’s not the worst longshot starter if you’re desperate. The Jags should be all about James Robinson, as they have been. The Seahawks have been roasted by Alvin Kamara (30/179/1 scrimmage) and Najee Harris (30/127/1) in the last two weeks, and teams are running the ball 28 times a game with RBs, tops in the league.
Geno Smith has finished with fewer than 12 FP in each of his first two starts, but the matchup is beatable, as the Jaguars have given up 290+ passing yards in five of their six games. I’m actually giving D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett a good chance to produce. Alex Collins was still limited last week and had only 16/35 rushing and 1/9 receiving on 39% of the snaps. We could see something similar this week, but Collins is expected to go. The Jaguars are facing the fourth-most carries per game (25.2) and they’re allowing the second-most rushing TDs per game (1.3) to RBs this season, so Collins at least has a good matchup.
Washington Football Team (2-5) at Denver Broncos (3-4)
Players I like more than usual: Taylor Heinicke, Teddy Bridgewater, Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant, Ricky Seals-Jones, Terry McLaurin
Players I’m neutral on: None of note.
Players I like less than usual: Melvin Gordon, Javonte Williams
Longshot Plays: None of note.
Notes: Denver’s secondary has been solid overall, but they are giving up 9.1 YPA to QBs the last four weeks. Denver has gotten beat deep by Marquise Brown, Diontae Johnson, and Henry Ruggs in three of their past four games. Taylor Heinicke this week talked about getting back to his comfort zone last week, which entails running with the football. Terry McLaurin is off the injury report and Ricky Seals-Jones has been a big factor, so those two and his running should get him up over 16 FP points with some upside from there. Antonio Gibson has played just 39% and 42% of the snaps the last two weeks, but he looks better than usual this week, and I do like him to get more carries than usual in this matchup. The Broncos have been hit for 21+ FP in each of the last three weeks by D’Ernest Johnson, Kenyan Drake, and Najee Harris. J.D. McKissic has been hard to predict in terms of gamescript, but this does not look like a good week for him. The Broncos are giving up the second-fewest receiving yards per game (25.7) and the second-fewest catches per game (3.1) to RBs so far.
Teddy Bridgewater needs a lot of help if he’s to produce, and he gets that help with this matchup. For one, the FT runs a lot of Cover 1, which is easily the best coverage shell for Teddy. The FT is also giving up the most PPG out of the slot, and Teddy will get slot man Jerry Jeudy back, which is huge. The FT has allowed 24+ FP to QBs in six straight games, with multiple TD passes in five straight, so Teddy is looking good here. Courtland Sutton saw just three targets in his only game with Jeudy at the beginning of the season, but he’s obviously viable. Tim Patrick will slide into the #3 WR role, so he’s less appealing. Noah Fant has 5+ catches and 7+ targets in three of his last four games, and TEs Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis combined for 7/94/1 receiving last week, and Washington has allowed 20+ FP to the position in consecutive games, so Fant is looking good. The FT is still very good against the run, so I do like RBs Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams a little less than usual.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-1) at New Orleans Saints (4-2)
Players I like more than usual: Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski
Players I’m neutral on: Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette
Players I like less than usual: Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Jameis Winston
Longshot Plays: Marquez Callaway
Notes: Tom Brady averaged just 215.7 passing yards per game, he completed 58.9% of his passes, and he threw for just four TDs against the Saints last season. Mike Evans versus Marshon Lattimore is one problem, and no Antonio Brown is another. The Saints are also excellent against the RB, so this is a tough spot for Brady. I’m lowering expectations. Chris Godwin didn’t go off with Lattimore locking up Evans last year, and the Saints have great depth at CB, but his targets should be up, for sure. Tyler Johnson flopped last week with just 2/16 receiving with AB out of the lineup, so he’s hard to trust. Rob Gronkowski is expected to play, and he might be the guy to look at, against a man to man defense. However, the Saints have yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end this season, and they limited Gronk to a meager 4/27 receiving on 14 targets in three games last season. I like Leonard Fournette less than usual, but he should get some volume.
No matter how you slice it, this is a tough matchup for Alvin Kamara, and Mark Ingram could start getting goal line carries. Kamara totaled just 21/56 rushing and 10/60 receiving in two regular season games against the Buccaneers before posting 18/85 rushing and 3/20 receiving in the Divisional Round. Jameis Winston is not very good, and I’m not expecting much in his revenge game, especially since the Bucs secondary has been a lot better lately. Marquez Callaway is the only receiver worth trying out. But the Bucs secondary hasn’t allowed an opposing WR to reach double-digit FP in three straight games.
Dallas Cowboys (5-1) at Minnesota Vikings (3-3)
Players I like more than usual: Dalvin Cook, Adam Thelien, Ezekiel Elliott
Players I’m neutral on: Dalton Schultz
Players I like less than usual: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper
Longshot Plays: Tyler Conklin
Notes: It’s not looking good for Dak Prescott, who is a gametime decision tonight. If he has any issues, they will likely sit him, so prepare for the worst. You need an alternative handy, like Daniel Jones, if you have Dak, or else you can’t use him. And lower expectations for WRs CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper. Dalton Schultz is coming off a season-high 84% snap share in Week 6, and he could still produce if it’s the backup QB. Not having Dak would be a problem for Ezekiel Elliott, but the Vikings won’t have DT Michael Pierce, and they have given up a sixth-worst 4.6 YPC and the eighth-most rushing yards per game (108.3) to RBs with Pierce, their top run-stopper. Zeke will get his this week no matter what.
Kirk Cousins has quietly been brilliant this year, and he should have another solid day, since the Cowboys play a lot of man coverage, and Kirkie crushes that. I like this one as an Adam Thielen game and he bounced back the last time out with 11/126/1 receiving on 13 targets against the Panthers. He should see the better matchup once again with most of his routes likely coming against Anthony Brown, who has given up two touchdowns in his coverage this season, and Trevon Diggs spends a lot of time on Justin Jefferson. I also prefer Thielen over Jefferson against man-heavy teams like the Cowboys. He’s scoring. if Dak is ruled out, that factor alone should afford Dalvin Cook 3-5 more carries. The Cowboys are facing the second-fewest rushing attempts (14.8) per game but they’re allowing 4.5 YPC to RBs, and Damien Harris posted 18/101/1 rushing against the last time out. Tyler Conklin showed a pulse the last time out, 3/71 receiving on five targets, and the Cowboys are suspect against TEs, so he’s not a bad longshot play.
New York Giants (2-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-4)
Players I like more than usual: Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill. Travis Kelce, Darrell Williams
Players I’m neutral on: Kadarius Toney, Sterling Shepard, Devontae Booker
Players I like less than usual: None of note.
Longshot Plays: Daniel Jones, Evan Engram
Daniel Jones has fallen off lately, but he’s still playing well. I expect the Chiefs to play a lot better on defense, at home, so it will be tough for Jones. But he will have Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard this week, so I think Jones can come through for fantasy. Of course, the Chiefs have given up 20+ FP in five of their last six games, and they’re allowing the second-most FPG (24.9) to QBs this season. Toney and Shepard could suffer setbacks, so there’s risk, but I’m using Toney for sure if I need upside. Evan Engram is “coming on” a little and the Chiefs have allowed TE touchdowns in four straight games. Devontae Booker will get one more start, and he’s worth using if you need him for sure. The Chiefs are giving up 140 total yards per game and the ninth-most FPG (26.0) to RBs this season.
I think Patrick Mahomes bounces back in a big way against a Giant defense that gives up a 70% completion rate, fourth-worst, and a 5.9% TD rate, ninth-worst, and the third-most PPG to outside WRs. The Giants allowed Matthew Stafford (251/4 passing) and Dak Prescott (302/3) to post 22+ FP in Weeks 5-6 before they stifled Sam Darnold (3.5 FP). I don’t trust any of their receivers other than Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, though. Darrel Williams played 64% of the snaps but he did nothing last week, and I think that changes this week. I can see him catching 4-5 balls and scoring at least once.
