After a wild Divisional Round weekend, we’ve got an amazing Final Four on Sunday. Can Joe Brrrr and the Bengals keep their run going and slay the Chiefs? Will the Rams be able to top the 49ers at home after L.A. lost both of their regular season meetings?
Let’s go through all of the stats and notes for Sunday…
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
Bengals
Joe Burrow is the first ever starting QB that was a No. 1 overall pick to make a Conference Championship game in his first two years as a starter (H/T Field Yates).
Burrow’s run started with their Week 14 loss to the 49ers where they tried to come from behind and win. In his last six games, Burrow has completed 75% of his throws for a ridiculous 9.8 YPA, he’s averaging 344.7 yards per game, and has a 13:1 TD-to-INT ratio.
The Chiefs blitzed at the eighth-highest rate during the regular season (28.1%) and Burrow led all QBs in YPA vs. the blitz (10.4).
The Chiefs blitzed Burrow 27.5% of the time in Week 17.
Burrow’s target distribution in his last six games – Chase (52), Higgins (41), Uzomah (37), Boyd (30), Mixon (29).
Ja’Marr Chase is averaging 116 yards per game over his last six outings with Burrow, and that includes his 1-catch, 3-yard disappointing performance against the Broncos in Week 15.
Chase says he expects the Chiefs to play a lot of Cover 2 looks this week, which would be a divergence from their Week 17 meeting where Kansas City ran a mix of Cover 1, Cover 2, Cover 3, and Cover 6. Chase shredded them for 11/266/3.
If the Chiefs do play more Cover 2, Chase is in a great spot. He leads all WRs in receiving yards gained per route run (2.80) against 2-high safety looks per SIS.
With Chase taking over as the clear alpha WR, Tee Higgins’ target totals have been all over the map over the last six weeks: 7 > 3 > 13 > 5 > 4 > 9.
Tyler Boyd’s yardage total has dipped in five-straight games with Chase dominating: 96 > 85 > 36 > 26 > 17.
Boyd is in a nice spot here, though, as the Chiefs gave up the ninth-most yards per game to slot WRs during the regular season. Cole Beasley came back to life for 6/60 last week.
For as good as Burrow has been, the Bengals run game has been very lackluster to close out this season. Mixon has been held under 3.9 YPC in seven-straight games and is averaging just 54.7 yards per game on the ground in this span.
The good news is that Mixon is making up for his poor efficiency with a huge uptick as a receiver. Mixon is averaging 6.5 targets, 5.8 receptions, and 47.3 receiving yards per game over his last four outings.
The Chiefs allowed the fourth-most receptions (6.4) and the third-most yards (52.2) per game to opposing RBs during the regular season.
Chiefs
It’s remarkable how quickly the Chiefs turned around their offense after an ugly early- and mid-season lull. The biggest improvement is Patrick Mahomes cutting his mistakes down and playing much better from within structure.
In their first 12 games of the year, the Chiefs turned the ball over on a whopping 17.4% of their possessions (31st). Only the Jets (18.8% turnover rate) were worse.
Since then, the Chiefs have turned the ball over on just 5.7% of their possessions over their last seven games (fifth-best in span).
Mahomes has been unconscious over his last seven outings – he’s completed 72.4% of his throws for 8.5 YPA, averaged 372.8 yards per game, and thrown 20 TDs and just 2 INTs.
Mahomes’ legs and extending plays on the ground always seems to be a huge part of their offense in crunch time late in the year and these playoffs have been more of the same…
After averaging just 3.6 carries and 20.4 rushing yards per game in Weeks 1-17, Mahomes has 9/54, 3/29, and 7/69/1 over his last three starts.
Tyreek Hill struggled through a heel injury in his previous four games before last week’s slump-busting 11/150/1 hammer.
The Bengals have predominantly played Cover 3 in the playoffs (40% of coverage snaps), and if they stick with that plan, they’re going to get shredded. Patrick Mahomes has completed 78% of his throws for 9.7 YPA and a 118.1 passer rating against Cover 3 over his last eight starts.
Travis Kelce is averaging a ridiculous 3.52 yards gained per route run against Cover 3 in this span and catches a dream matchup here. The Bengals gave up the fifth-most yards per game (64.0) to TEs during the regular season.
Kelce (86) and Hill (84) lead the team in routes during the playoffs followed by Byron Pringle (75), Demarcus Robinson (68), and Mecole Hardman (44).
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (7/60 rushing) was much more effective on the ground than Jerick McKinnon (10/24) last week, but McKinnon out-snapped CEH by a 70% to 30% margin.
McKinnon ran 41 routes to CEH’s 11 last week against the Bills.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
49ers
The 49ers have scored either a FG or TD on just 35% of their possessions this postseason, which is last by a considerable margin among the remaining playoff teams – Rams (44%), Bengals (50%), Chiefs (61%).
The 49ers are averaging just 25.3 yards gained per offensive drive, also last.
The formula for San Francisco has been simple… run a ton and play slow.
HC Kyle Shanahan has called a run on a whopping 67% of their 1st and 2nd downs in the postseason.
Jimmy Garoppolo is averaging just 6.3 YPA on his early-down (1st and 2nd) throws this postseason, which is by far the worst among the remaining quarterbacks – Burrow (8.1 early-down YPA), Mahomes (9.2), Stafford (10.1).
The 49ers are averaging 3 minutes and 10 seconds of possession on their drives in the playoffs, which is best among the Final Four.
If the 49ers are going to win this game, it’s going to be because they run the ball effectively. The Rams run defense has definitely improved as of late…
L.A. held Arizona’s RBs to 55 yards on 16 carries (3.4 YPC) in the Wild Card round and held Leonard Fournette to 13/51/2 rushing (3.9 YPC) ast week.
Elijah Mitchell had 85 yards on 21 carries (4.0 YPC) when these two teams met in Week 18.
The 49ers controlled the game on the ground in their previous meeting in Week 10 as their backfield combined for 44 carries, 156 yards, and 1 TD. Jimmy G dropped back to pass just 20 times and the 49ers won 31-10.
It’s felt like their opponents have finally started to catch on to the fact that if Deebo Samuel is in the backfield, he’s getting the ball…
Deebo is only averaging 5.0 YPC over his last four games after putting up a ridiculous 7.4 YPC in his previous six outings.
George Kittle lives? He led the team in targets last week and posted his first performance of 30+ yards since Week 15 with 4/63 receiving against the Packers.
Kittle flopped for just 5/10 in Week 18 when these two teams met, but he previously smashed the Rams for 4/100, 5/98/1, 9/149/1, 8/103, 5/79/1, 7/109/1, and 5/50/1 in his seven previous meetings with L.A.
Rams
The Buccaneers and Cardinals both made cardinal sins in blitzing Matthew Stafford heavily. It didn’t work out. Especially for Tampa.
The Cardinals blitzed Stafford on 44% of his dropbacks in the Wild Card round. Stafford ripped them, going 8-of-10 for 162 yards, 7 first downs, and 1 TD.
The Bucs’ blitzed Stafford on 41% of his dropbacks last week. He killed them, going 11-of-17 for 136 yards, 9 first downs, and 1 TD against the blitz.
Stafford led all QBs during the regular season in fantasy points per pass attempt against the blitz (0.82).
What will the 49ers do? My money is on them using 4-man rushes, dropping 7 in coverage, and letting the chips fall where they may…
In their Week 18 meeting, the 49ers blitzed Stafford on just 18.4% of his dropbacks (sixth-lowest rate that week).
When they played in Week 10, the 49ers blitzed Stafford even less frequently – sending extra pass rushers on just 10.5% of his 47 dropbacks (third-lowest rate that week).
Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham have combined for a massive 56% target share this postseason.
Van Jefferson has three or fewer targets in three-straight games.
Kupp shredded everyone this year, but especially the 49ers. His 20 targets against them turned into 18 receptions, 240 yards, 1 TD and a ridiculous 12.0 yards per target.
The 49ers allowed just 6 TDs to TEs all season. Tyler Higbee had three of them.
Cam Akers had a couple of costly fumbles, but his role last week was incredible. He dominated the work in the backfield over Sony Michel. Last week, Akers played on 81% of the snaps and handled 24 of the 25 carries.
