Since the season ended a month ago, I have been grinding away on this article piece by piece. Countless spreadsheets were created, databases were scoured, and numbers crunched all to help you not only make sense of the season that was — and to also help give you a jump start on your 2021 research.
Make sure you keep this article bookmarked, too. I’ll be adding to it up until the summer as I continue to research for this upcoming year.
To avoid making your thumb get sore from scrolling too much, I’ve chopped Stat-Pack into two articles: NFC and AFC.
Here’s the NFC version:
Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray ended the fantasy season as the QB1 with 25.5 fantasy points per game.
Murray’s 25.5 FPG is the fifth-best season ever by a quarterback, behind only Lamar Jackson (27.9 in 2019), Aaron Rodgers (26.5 in 2011), Michael Vick (26.2 in 2010), and Patrick Mahomes (26.2 in 2018).
Murray averaged 9.8 rushing fantasy points per game, which is the third-most ever by a quarterback behind Jackson (10.8 rushing FPG in 2018) and Vick (10.3 in 2010).
DeAndre Hopkins has now finished as a top-6 fantasy receiver five times over the last 6 seasons.
Hopkins has seen at least 150 targets in every season in this span.
Kenyan Drake’s season-long stats ended up looking fine, but on a weekly basis, he was nothing more than a low-ceiling FLEX option. Drake averaged 13.3 fantasy points per game (RB24) and finished as a top-12 weekly option just three times.
Drake was held to just 4.1 yards per touch, which is a full yard below his career average (5.1 yards/touch).
Chase Edmonds ran more routes (303 to 251) and saw significantly more targets (67 to 31) than Drake.
For some reason, the Cardinals shied away from using Drake in the passing game like they did the previous year. Once they traded for him in 2019, Drake averaged 4.4 targets/game (which is a 70-target per season pace).
Atlanta Falcons
In the seven games that Julio Jones has missed over the last two years, Calvin Ridley has gone for 8/91, 5/110, 8/136, 6/50/1, 8/124/1, 10/163/1, and 5/130.
If you take away the Week 8 game in which he left early because of injury, Ridley finished as a WR2 or better (top-24) in 10-of-14 games. That is remarkable consistency.
For comparison, DeAndre Hopkins finished as a WR2 or better nine times.
Dating back to last year, Ridley has cleared 90 yards or scored a touchdown in 16 of his last 18 games.
Per PFF, Calvin Ridley led all WRs in targets on deep passes (36) and was second in endzone targets (19).
Ridley also led all WRs in targets of 15+ yards with 65. Next most was Tyreek Hill with 45.
Even though he only played in nine games, Julio Jones was still just as efficient and explosive as ever last season. Over the last eight years, Julio has finished 1st (in 2013), 5th, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 5th, and 3rd (in 2020) in receiving yards per route run among WRs.
Exactly 50% of Hayden Hurst’s total fantasy points came in just five games.
Ito Smith out-carried Todd Gurley 35 to 19 over their last four games (Week 13-16).
Matt Ryan has now finished as a top-15 QB in five-straight seasons.
Looking ahead… HC Arthur Smith is going to install a lot more play-action concepts this coming season. This past year, the Titans used play-action on a league-high 36% of their pass plays. The Falcons used play-action on 25% of their pass plays (ranked 18th).
In 2016, the Falcons’ Super Bowl season, Ryan led the NFL in play action rate under Kyle Shanahan at 27.6%. So obviously, PA rates in general have gone way up, but it’s still startling to see that kind of drop for Ryan. (For reference sake, 16 QBs had a higher PA rate in 2020 than Ryan’s league-high mark in 2016.)
Carolina Panthers
In his three starts last year, Christian McCaffrey scored 28.4, 24.8, and 36.8 PPR points. Dating back to the start of 2019, CMC has now put up 20+ points in 17 of his last 19 starts.
In this stretch, McCaffrey has averaged a ridiculous 29.4 fantasy points per game and finished as an RB1 scorer (top-12) in 89% of his starts.
CMC’s 23.1 FPG in his career ranks most all-time ahead of Alvin Kamara (21.7), Saquon Barkley (20.8), LaDainian Tomlinson (20.3), Dalvin Cook (19.7), and Marshall Faulk (19.7) to round out the top-6.
Since the start of 2019, CMC ranks first among RBs in routes run per game (35.9), first in receptions per game (7.3), first in receiving yards per game (62.8), and fourth in yards per route run (1.75).
D.J. Moore might have just had the quietest 1,193-yard season ever. That ranked ninth-most among all WRs.
Moore has 3,156 yards in his first three seasons, which ranks 18th-most among wide receivers in their first three years ahead of Larry Fitzgerald (3,135), Calvin Johnson (3,071), and Amari Cooper (2,903) to name a few.
New OC Joe Brady wisely used Moore much more as a downfield target in 2020 compared to previous years. Moore’s average depth of target traveled 13.7 yards downfield — which ranked 14th-highest among WRs and was right behind Chase Claypool (13.8) and D.K. Metcalf (13.9).
In the 15 games all of their receivers were healthy, Robby Anderson (124) led the team in targets, ahead of Moore (119) and Curtis Samuel (88).
Teddy Bridgewater really struggled with his accuracy and efficiency when he threw the ball deeper downfield. On throws of 10+ air yards, Bridgewater ranked 21st-of-33 in on-target throw percentage, 27th in passer rating, and 21st in EPA per attempt.
Chicago Bears
Just how much better was the Bears of offense with Mitch Trubisky under center? According to SIS, they averaged 0.06 expected points per play with Trubisky on the field and -0.16 EPA when Nick Foles played.
Over a full game (~60 plays), the difference between Trubisky and Foles was worth about two touchdowns in scoring.
David Montgomery’s season can be summed up by two different things: 1) Tarik Cohen missing most of the season and 2) the easiest stretch of opponents during the fantasy playoffs in recent memory.
In Week 1-3 when Cohen was healthy, Montgomery played on just 52% of the Bears snaps (25th among RBs).
Without Cohen from Week 4 on, Montgomery’s snap rate was 80% (led all RBs).
Montgomery’s schedule down the stretch might have been the easiest in fantasy history. From Week 12-16, Montgomery faced the following opponents: Packers (sixth-most rushing EPA allowed), Lions (fifth-most), Texans (most), Vikings (third-most), and the Jaguars (ninth-most).
In this five-game stretch in Week 12-16, Montgomery put up 25.2 fantasy points per game. Across his 10 other games, he averaged 14.1 FPG.
Allen Robinson has finished as the WR9 in fantasy points per game in back-to-back years.
Since the start of 2019, A-Rob is fifth among all players in targets per game (9.5) behind Keenan Allen (9.9), DeAndre Hopkins (10.0), Michael Thomas (10.4), and Davante Adams (10.6).
A-Rob saw 35 targets on slant routes, most in the league per SIS. The next closest receiver was D.K. Metcalf with 25.
Over the final eight weeks of the season, Cole Kmet ran more routes (177 to 103) and saw more targets (34 to 20) than Jimmy Graham.
Dallas Cowboys
In Weeks 1-5, before Dak Prescott broke his ankle, the Cowboys ranked third-best in yards gained (41.3) and ninth-best in points scored (2.66) on a per drive basis.
Without Prescott? Dallas fell to sixth-worst in both yards gained (29.0) and points scored (1.80) per drive.
Dallas completely abandoned their run-heavy ways when Prescott was healthy and went 64% pass-heavy when the game was within a score in Week 1-5, which was the highest rate in the league during this span.
Prescott averaged 24.7 fantasy points per game in this stretch, which would have just inched out Patrick Mahomes (24.6) for the QB1 finish in FPG.
Dak finished as a top-4 weekly QB three times in that five-game stretch.
Prescott’s target distribution was… Amari Cooper (52), CeeDee Lamb (37), Ezekiel Elliott (32), Dalton Schultz (31), and Michael Gallup (25).
When Prescott was healthy, Gallup’s average depth of target downfield was 17.6 yards (fifth-highest among WRs in this span).
Lamb had at least five receptions in every game during Week 1-5. He had five such games over the remainder of the season.
Lamb averaged 86.6 yards per game in Prescott’s starts, which would have ranked third-best behind Justin Jefferson (87.5) and Odell Beckham (108.8) for most all-time by a rookie WR.
In his career, Amari Cooper has averaged 16.6 fantasy points per game with Prescott and 12.9 FPG with all of his other quarterbacks.
On the flipside, Prescott has averaged 307.5 yards per game when Cooper is on the field and just 214.9 YPG without him.
What happened with Ezekiel Elliott last year? Well, his splits were drastic once Prescott was lost for the season. In Week 1-5, Zeke averaged 23.1 fantasy points per game (which would have ranked him as the RB3 behind Kamara and Cook over the full season).
In Week 6-17, Zeke averaged just 11.8 FPG (which would have ranked as the RB30).
Zeke scored just two TDs over his final 10 games without Prescott. Why? The Cowboys averaged just 3.2 red-zone drives per game in Week 6-17, which was eighth-fewest.
In Week 1-5, Dallas averaged 4.1 red-zone drives per game (sixth-most).
Something I can’t explain is why Dallas started cutting back on Zeke’s snaps after Prescott went down. He never left the field when Prescott was healthy (87% snap rate; highest among RBs) but that dipped considerably once Andy Dalton took over (64% snap rate; 10th-highest).
Among the 53 RBs that had 100 or more touches on the season, Tony Pollard ranked third-best in missed tackles forced per touch while Zeke ranked 42nd (per PFF).
Detroit Lions
After the Lions barely used D’Andre Swift in their first four games, they finally let him loose in Week 6 after their bye. From then on, Swift started nine games and averaged 16.7 fantasy points per game (RB10 in this span).
Swift finished as a RB2 (top-24) or better in weekly scoring seven times across his final nine games.
From Week 1-4, Swift only played on 31% of the Lions snaps.
In Week 6-17, Swift played on 55% of the team’s snaps.
Swift ran 20.7 routes per game from Week 6 on, which would have ranked 11th-most behind all running backs over the full season.
Swift averaged 3.5 receptions per game, which is very quietly 13th-most by a rookie running back since targets started being tracked in 1992.
Swift put up 7.2 receiving fantasy points per game, which is more than Marshall Faulk (6.9), Le’Veon Bell (6.5), and LaDainian Tomlinson (6.0) had in their rookie seasons.
T.J. Hockenson finished as a TE1 (top-12) in 8-of-13 games prior to Matthew Stafford’s Week 15 injury.
Until Stafford got hurt, Hockenson had at least 60 yards or a touchdown in 12-of-13 games.
Hockenson finished the season as the TE5 in cumulative fantasy points (175.3), but that was still a whopping 137.3 points behind the TE1 Travis Kelce (312.6).
One positive thing about Jared Goff’s addition is that he’s been pretty efficient at getting the ball to his tight ends. Over the last two combined years, Goff ranks tied for fifth-best with Patrick Mahomes in completions (73%) to his tight ends. Only Derek Carr (77%), Kirk Cousins (77%), Jimmy Garoppolo (77%), and Aaron Rodgers (75%) have been better.
The bad news? Goff has been horrible against pressure over the last two years. Whereas Stafford ranks fourth-best in passer rating (80.3) when pressured, Goff is 29th with a 53.7 rating.
There is no denying Stafford is a more aggressive quarterback than Goff, and it had to be a deciding factor for the trade. Over the last two years, Stafford’s average depth of target downfield when he’s given a clean pocket is 9.9 yards. Only Jameis Winston (10.6) is more aggressive.
On the flipside, Goff’s aDOT from a clean pocket is 7.0 yards. That ranks 41st-of-46 qualified QBs ahead of only Teddy Bridgewater, Drew Brees, Justin Herbert, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Alex Smith.
Marvin Jones averaged 15.6 fantasy points per game without Kenny Golladay in the lineup, which would have made him the WR17 just behind Tyler Lockett (16.1).
In his five healthy games, Golladay averaged 84.5 yards, which would have been a career-high.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers finished second in the NFC in point differential (+140) behind only the Saints (+145).
They finished second in yards gained per play (6.3) behind the Texans (6.4).
They led the league in points scored per game (31.8) ahead of the Bills (31.3). They scored on 50% of their drives, which led the league.
The Packers were second in third-down conversions (49.4%) and led the league in red-zone conversions (80%).
Aaron Rodgers finished the season with a 121.5 passer rating, which is second-best all-time… behind his 2011 season where he had a 122.5 rating.
Rodgers threw a touchdown on 9.1% of his pass attempts, which is the fourth-highest rate ever behind Peyton Manning (2004), Ken Stabler (1976), and Deshaun Watson (2017).
Rodgers’ 29 TDs inside of the 10-yard line (red-zone) are the most by a QB in the last 25 seasons.
His 23.4 fantasy points per game ranks 14th-most all-time. This means that Rodgers now owns four of the top-30 seasons all-time in FPG (2011, 2014, 2016, 2020).
If we drop Week 2, when he left early with a hamstring injury, Davante Adams put up 26.5 fantasy points per game across his 16 healthy starts (includes playoffs).
Adams’ 26.5 FPG would have been the best season all-time by a WR ahead of Jerry Rice’s 1987 season (26.2 FPG), when he scored 22 TDs in 12 games.
Adams averaged 1.4 targets inside-10 targets per game, which is second-most by a wide receiver over the last 25 years. Carl Pickens’ 1995 season ranks first (1.5).
However, Adams did set the record for most receiving TDs inside of the 10-yard line with 13.
Dating back to the start of 2018, Adams has finished as a WR2 or better (top-24) in weekly scoring in 78% of his games.
Since he entered the league in 2017, Aaron Jones ranks third among running backs in yards per touch (5.7) behind only Christian McCaffrey (5.8) and Alvin Kamara (6.2).
Over the last two years, Jones has converted 44% of his carries inside of the 10-yard line into touchdowns. That leads all RBs and is second-best in the league behind Josh Allen (58%), who is a cheat code.
Robert Tonyan scored 11 TDs on just 59 targets. This means that 37% of his fantasy points came from touchdowns alone, which was the highest rate among the top-24 scoring TEs.
In my database that dates back to 2000, Tonyan is the first tight end to finish top-5 at the position with fewer than 60 targets.
Tonyan is also the only tight end to finish top-5 and derive over 36% of his fantasy points from touchdowns in this span.
Los Angeles Rams
Over the past two seasons, Matthew Stafford is tied for 10th in passer rating (99.8) and ranks 8th in yards per attempt (8.1). Meanwhile, Jared Goff ranks a mediocre 24th-of-40 qualified QBs in passer rating (88.1) and 20th in YPA (7.3) in this span.
Since McVay took over as the Rams play-caller in 2017, L.A. has used play action on a league-high 32.6% of their passing plays. For reference, the next closest team in play-action rate in this span is the Ravens (29.8%) and the league-average is 23.9%.
Per SIS, Stafford ranks third-best (of 30 QBs) in EPA/attempt, 12th-best in on-target throws, and 10th-best in passer rating on play-action throws over the past four seasons.
Goff ranks 10th-best in EPA/attempt, second-worst in on-target throws, and ninth-worst in passer rating on play-action since 2017.
Last year, Stafford was one of the league’s best passers on throws of 15+ yards downfield, ranking fifth-best out of 29 qualified QBs in on-target throw rate (67%) and 6th-best in passer rating (121.4) per SIS.
Meanwhile, Goff ranked a lowly 27th in on-target passes (50%) on throws that traveled 15+ yards downfield. Only Mitchell Trubisky (47%) and Carson Wentz (43%) were worse. Goff’s 85.2 rating on these attempts ranked 20th.
There is no denying Stafford is a more aggressive quarterback than Goff, and it had to be a deciding factor for the trade. Over the last two combined years, Stafford’s average depth of target downfield when he’s given a clean pocket is 9.9 yards. Only Jameis Winston (10.6) is more aggressive.
On the flipside, Goff’s aDOT from a clean pocket is 7.0 yards. That ranks 41st-of-46 qualified QBs ahead of only Teddy Bridgewater, Drew Brees, Justin Herbert, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Alex Smith.
Cooper Kupp (15.5) and Robert Woods (15.4) rank as the WR15 and WR16 in fantasy points per game over the last two combined seasons.
Among the 77 WRs to see at least 40 targets last year, Kupp (6.3) ranked 74th in average depth of target and Woods (6.8) ranked 71st.
On the flipside, Kupp ranked ninth-best in yards after the catch while Woods was 11th-best.
Over the final six games of their season (including playoffs), Cam Akers played on 74% of the Rams’ snaps. By comparison, this would have ranked fourth-highest by a running back over the full season.
Akers put up 119.5 scrimmage yards and 16.8 fantasy points per game during this six-game stretch. That would have ranked fourth-most in scrimmage yards and 11th in FPG among RBs.
Akers led the Rams RBs in yards after contact (2.4) ahead of Darrell Henderson (2.2) and Malcolm Brown (1.5) over the full season.
Minnesota Vikings
Justin Jefferson just posted the fourth-most fantasy points (17.1) and second-most yards (87.5) per game by a rookie wide receiver all-time.
Keep in mind, Jefferson wasn’t a full-time player until Week 3. From that point on, Jefferson averaged 95 yards and 18.4 FPG.
From Week 3 on, Jefferson got 28% of the targets and 41% of the air yards. Adam Thielen saw 23% of the targets and 31% of the air yards.
Among the 40 receivers to see at least 25 targets that went 15+ yards in air, Jefferson saw the highest amount of catchable targets (77%). Tee Higgins was second (76%).
While Jefferson clearly emerged as the WR1, Thielen was the preferred red-zone weapon. Thielen had 13 targets inside of the 10-yard line while Jefferson had two.
Per PFF, Thielen led the league in end-zone targets with 20.
Thielen just became the sixth-receiver in the last 25 years to score double-digit TDs in a single-season. The other five were Davante Adams (2020), Carl Pickens (1995), Randy Moss (2007), and Allen Robinson (2015).
Kirk Cousins was pressured on 39% of his dropbacks per PFF, which was the third-highest rate in the league.
Cousins’ passer rating when pressured was 72.0, 12th-best.
Per SIS, Cousins led the league in passer rating vs. man coverage (128.2). He was second-best in YPA vs. man (8.6) behind only Patrick Mahomes (8.8).
On the flipside, Cousins was 22nd in passer rating vs. zone (91.0).
All 13 of Cousins’ interceptions came against zone.
For better or worse, the Vikings are sticking with Cousins, and I’ll be sticking with him as a QB2 target in every best-ball league. His supporting cast is ridiculous and will continue to lead to plenty of blow-up weeks. For reference, Cousins finished as a QB1 (top-12) in 50% of his games last year — the same exact figure as Ryan Tannehill.
Irv Smith averaged 12.8 fantasy points per game in the four games that Kyle Rudolph missed to end last season, which made him the TE8 in Week 14-17.
Promisingly, Smith also ranked 9th among TEs in routes run per game in this stretch.
Dalvin Cook had one of the most consistent seasons by a running back in recent memory by finishing as an RB2 or better (top-24 in weekly scoring) in all 14 of his starts.
Cook had at least 80 scrimmage yards or a touchdown in every game.
Cook led the league in carries per game inside of the 10-yard line (2.5).
Over the last two years, Cook is the RB2 in fantasy points per game (22.5)… which is still 7.1 points short of Christian McCaffrey (29.6).
New Orleans Saints
It’ll be very interesting to see how the Saints handle if/when Drew Brees retires, because Alvin Kamara had massive negative splits without Brees under center. In Brees’ 11 starts, Kamara averaged 29.2 fantasy points per game and just 14.2 FPG without him.
Kamara’s passing down usage was the main culprit for the splits… he averaged 8.3 targets and put up 6.6 receptions and 64.1 yards per game with Brees and just 4 targets, 2.5 receptions, 12.8 yards per game without him.
Brees targeted his running backs on 29% of his attempts while Taysom Hill threw to his backs 20% of the time.
In nine full games (including playoffs), Michael Thomas saw 66 targets and went for 45/511/1 receiving.
Thomas was clearly never close to healthy and only played on 80% of the snaps in 3-of-9 games.
In 2019, Thomas was on the field over 80% of the time in 15-of-17 games.
In seven games when Thomas missed, Emmanuel Sanders averaged 14.9 fantasy points per game.
In the nine games that Thomas played, Sanders put up just 8.2 FPG.
In perfect Jared Cook fashion, he was completely boom-or-bust this past season. He finished as a TE1 (top-12) in 40% of his games and outside of the top-25 scorers in 40%.
New York Giants
In his first two seasons, Daniel Jones has averaged 1.4 turnovers per game.
Among QBs with at least 16 career starts, Jones ranks sixth-worst in turnovers/game behind Deshone Kizer (1.7), Charlie Frye (1.5), Rex Grossman (1.5), Jameis Winston (1.5), and John Skelton (1.5).
Jones ranks 25th in fantasy points per game over the last two combined years (14.6).
OC Jason Garrett was the eighth-most run-heavy coordinator on first down when the game was within a score (57% run). Only the Patriots, Jaguars, 49ers, Raiders, Browns, Titans, and Ravens were more run-heavy in these situations.
(If he’s back to 100%, Saquon Barkley is going to get the ball 350 times in 2021.)
This might come as a shock, but Evan Engram was fourth among tight ends in targets (109).
Engram was just the anti-Tonyan, and scored only 1 TD on all of those looks.
Since 2000, only one other tight end has seen 100 or more targets and scored just 1 TD (Chris Cooley in 2008).
On average, tight ends that get 100 targets in a season average 6.3 TDs.
Engram saw just three targets in the end-zone, which ranked tied for 26th among TEs.
Philadelphia Eagles
If the Eagles do stick with Jalen Hurts, his appeal for our game is clear. Sure, he only completed 55% of his throws in his three full starts when he replaced Wentz in Week 14-16, but Hurts rushed for a whopping 238 yards and a score on just 38 carries in that stretch.
It’s a tiny sample, but in those three starts, Hurts finished as the QB10, QB1, and QB16 in weekly scoring and averaged 25.2 fantasy points per game largely because of his legs.
Hurts averaged 0.62 fantasy points per dropback, which ranked sixth-best, behind only Lamar Jackson (0.76), Aaron Rodgers (0.69), Ryan Tannehill (0.66), Josh Allen (0.65), and Kyler Murray (0.63).
Per SIS, Hurts led all QBs in scrambles (15), yards off of scrambles (112), first downs (8), and scramble TDs (1) in his three full starts.
Again, it’s a small sample, but two of Miles Sanders’ four-best games came with Hurts under center in Week 14-16 when he scored 29.6 fantasy points vs. the Saints and 18.8 vs. the Cowboys.
Sanders ranked sixth in routes run per game among running backs behind Christian McCaffrey, David Johnson, David Montgomery, Ezekiel Elliott, and JD McKissic.
Among the 18 running backs to get 50 or more targets, Sanders had the worst target quality. Per SIS, just 72% of Sanders’ targets were catchable.
For perspective, the other 17 RBs saw an accurate pass on 87% of their targets.
Sanders did have eight drops, which was third-most behind Ezekiel Elliott (9) and Alvin Kamara (10).
Dual-threat QBs always help open up lanes in the run game and Sanders averaged 5.1 yards per carry on 46 rushes in Week 14-16.
Jalen Reagor led the team in target share (18%) and air yards (23%) in Hurts’ three full starts.
Dallas Goedert averaged 12.3 fantasy points per game in games that Zach Ertz missed and 9.6 FPG when Ertz played.
Over the last three combined seasons, Goedert ranks 6th according to PFF in yards gained per route run (1.63) behind only Jared Cook (1.81), Mark Andrews (2.17), Travis Kelce (2.20), Darren Waller (2.34), and George Kittle (2.79).
San Francisco 49ers
Obviously all of their injuries played a part in this, but the 49ers fell to 23rd in points scored per drive last season. In 2019, they were 4th in points scored per drive.
Since the 49ers traded for Jimmy Garoppolo in 2017, they’ve averaged 27.8 points per game in his starts and just 20.2 PPG when he’s out.
HC Kyle Shanahan remained extremely run-heavy last year and ran the ball on 46% of their plays when the game was within a score (fifth-highest rate).
Jeff Wilson was the Niners’ most efficient and effective runner, averaging 3.0 yards after contact and a 46% success rate on his carries per SIS.
Raheem Mostert averaged 2.5 YAC and a 43% success rate.
Over the last four seasons with Shanahan calling plays, the 49ers RB group has finished 8th, 15th, 4th, and 3rd in fantasy points scored as a team.
Brandon Aiyuk averaged 15.4 fantasy points per game in his rookie season, which is sixth-most by a rookie WR since 2010.
From Week 7-15, Aiyuk finished as a WR2 or better (top-24) in every game and never dipped below 17.5 points.
Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel only played in four games together when they were all healthy. In those four games, Kittle (40) led the trio in targets while Aiyuk and Samuel had 22 each.
Kittle saw 24% of the 49ers targets when healthy, which ranked fourth among TEs behind Waller (28%), Kelce (25%), and Andrews (25%).
Since 2018, George Kittle leads all tight ends in yards gained per route run (2.79). The remaining top-5: Darren Waller (2.34), Travis Kelce (2.24), Mark Andrews (2.10), and Tyler Higbee (1.80).
Seattle Seahawks
In his first eight games, Russell Wilson threw for 317.6 yards per game, completed 71% of his throws, had a 28:8 TD-to-INT ratio, and averaged 8.6 yards per attempt.
Over his final eight games, Wilson averaged 208.9 yards per game, completed 66% of his throws, had a 12:5 TD-to-INT ratio, and threw for just 6.4 yards per attempt.
Both things can be true: the Seahawks have failed to build a solid offensive line around Wilson and he holds onto the ball way too long. Per Next Gen Stats, Wilson’s average time to pass release was 2.97 seconds — which was fourth-highest in the league.
Wilson has been inside of the top-4 longest release times in three of the past four seasons.
So, what happened in their final eight games this past year? Why did their offense fall apart? For starters, defenses started figuring out their deep passing offense. In Week 10-17, Wilson only completed 44% of his attempts for an 87.1 passer rating on throws of 15+ yards downfield. These figures ranked 20th out of 34 qualified QBs.
In Week 1-9, Wilson completed 53% of his attempts of 15+ yards (10th-best) and had a passer rating of 116.3 (sixth-best).
Another factor was the Seahawks played a much harder schedule in the back-half of the season. They faced the Rams twice, Washington, and the 49ers in Weeks 10-17. All three of those defenses ranked in the bottom-4 in passing yards allowed per game.
Tyler Lockett had such a bizarre season… he caught 100 balls, but only finished as a top-12 receiver (WR1) in weekly scoring five times.
Lockett had 10 games where he finished as a WR3 or worse (outside of the top-25 in weekly scoring).
In the lead up and through the fantasy playoffs, Lockett absolutely killed some fantasy teams. In Week 12-16, his weekly finishes were: WR71 > WR45 > WR43 > WR65 > WR61.
Lockett (131) and D.K. Metcalf (132) split targets basically right down the middle, but Metcalf saw significantly more air yards (41% share) compared to Lockett (28%).
Lockett (16) and Metcalf (14) both finished top-6 among WRs in end-zone targets.
In his 11 fully healthy games, Chris Carson rushed for 136/647/5 and added 36/280/4 as a receiver.
Carson averaged 16.6 fantasy points per game when he was healthy, which would have made him the RB12 over the full season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady-led teams now have piled up 34 playoff wins. 34! Joe Montana’s 49ers/Chiefs racked up 16 playoff wins (second most all-time) while Peyton Manning, John Elway, Steve Young, and Terry Bradshaw are tied in third with 14.
Brady has thrown over 1,700 passes in his playoff career. The only other QB with over 1,000 playoff attempts is Peyton Manning.
Brady has 83 playoff TDs, which is most all-time by miles. Aaron Rodgers is actually now tied with Joe Montana for second-most (45).
Brady averaged 21.1 fantasy points per game, which is the fifth-highest mark of his career.
Including the postseason, Brady ended his year with multiple passing TDs in 14 of his final 16 games.
The Bucs’ ended up being extremely pass-heavy, they went 62% pass when the game was within a score (fourth-highest), they were 72% pass-heavy when trailing (highest), and 55% pass when leading (seventh).
Despite all of the volume, both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans both fell from the top-4 in points per game in 2019 to WR15 and WR16 in 2020.
Among qualified receivers, Godwin ranked first in catch rate (86%) and fifth in yards gained per route run (1.79) from the slot per PFF.
84% of Godwin’s targets were catchable (sixth-highest rate among WRs).
Godwin was fairly consistent — he had 5+ receptions in 11-of-16 games (including playoffs) — but the same can’t be said for Evans.
In the four games that Godwin missed, Evans put up receiving lines of: 7/104/1, 7/122/1, 5/41/1, and 5/55/1.
Without Godwin, Evans saw 8.5 targets and had 20.1 fantasy points per game.
When Godwin was active, Evans scored 13.4 FPG and only got 6.3 targets per game.
Antonio Brown’s target share was incredibly inconsistent once he joined the team. He had five games with a target share above 20% and six games with a target share of 14% or lower.
Per PFF, Rob Gronkowski led all TEs in end-zone targets during the regular season.
Gronk was completely boom-or-bust this season, finishing as a TE1 (top-12) in seven games and outside of the top-25 in weekly scoring completely seven times.
Gronk now has 14 playoff TDs, second-most all-time behind Jerry Rice (22).
In the playoffs, Leonard Fournette had over 70 scrimmage yards in all four games and averaged 21.7 fantasy points per game.
However, even if we include the playoffs, Ronald Jones still averaged more yards after contact (3.2) and had a better success rate (44%) on his 227 total carries than Fournette (2.3 YAC; 41% success rate) on 161 carries.
Washington Football Team
Washington only averaged 4.7 yards per play on offense (second-worst).
However, their defense gave up 4.9 yards per play (second-best).
Washington’s defense only allowed a score on 30% of their drives (fifth-best).
They forced a sack on 8.2% of the opposing teams dropbacks (fourth-best).
Would you believe me if I told you that Terry McLaurin was far better without Alex Smith? Because in the eight games that Smith played in, McLaurin averaged just 12.9 fantasy points per game. In seven games without Smith, McLaurin put up 17.4 FPG.
Alex Smith’s average depth of target downfield was just 5.4 yards, which was by far the lowest in the NFL. Drew Brees was second-lowest (6.6 aDOT).
McLaurin saw at least 6 targets in all 16 games (including playoffs).
Despite all the QB turnover, McLaurin still had a remarkably consistent season. He finished as a WR2 or better (top-24) in 7-of-15 games and had 10+ PPR points in 12 games.
McLaurin’s three games where he was held to single-digit points came against the Rams, Steelers, and 49ers. All three of those secondaries were 32nd, 31st, and 30th in passing yards allowed per game.
Logan Thomas was the opposite of McLaurin, faring better when Smith was the QB. Thomas averaged 11.9 fantasy points on 7.9 targets per game with Smith under center and 10.1 fantasy points on 5.9 targets per game without him.
Thomas was basically used as a big slot receiver. OC Scott Turner lined Thomas up in the slot on 66% of his snaps, which was the third-highest rate among TEs behind only Mike Gesicki (67%) and Anthony Firkser (71%).
JD McKissic ended the season first in targets (110) and fourth in routes run (24.9) among RBs.
Like Thomas, McKissic saw more volume when Smith was the QB. He averaged 8.1 targets per game with Smith and 5.6 T/G without him.
Most of McKissic’s production came when Washington was trailing, though. He put up 14.9 fantasy points per game in losses and just 8.4 FPG in their wins.
There is no doubt Antonio Gibson answered all of the questions of whether or not he can be a featured runner. Among the 25 running backs that got at least 150 carries, Gibson ranked seventh in both missed tackles forced per carry (per PFF) and seventh in success rate (per SIS).
However, Gibson’s lack of involvement as a receiver made him very touchdown dependent. 32% of Gibson’s fantasy points came from rushing TDs, which was the second-highest rate behind only Nick Chubb (34%) among the top-24 running backs in fantasy points.
A total of 28 RBs saw 40+ targets in 2020. Of this group, Gibson ranked last in routes run per game (13.0).
Per PFF, McKissic out-snapped Gibson on third downs by a massive 197 to 22 margin.