For fantasy purposes, it’s better to have players in games that feature teams that play fast and run a lot of plays. Why? Faster paced offenses drain less clock in between plays which gives the game more overall play volume. And more play volume = more opportunities for fantasy scoring.
In this weekly column, I’ll highlight a few games that project for more pace and plays and some spots that could underwhelm.
Fast vs. Slow teams litter the Week 9 slate
This week is very unique in that we really don’t have a single game that stands out as a potential shootout with both teams up in pace and play volume. Instead, a lot of fast-paced teams are facing incredibly slow offenses. Let’s run through a few of these spots…
Seahawks (27th in pace) vs. Bills (8th)
We know the drill with Seattle by now. Even though they aren’t playing fast, they lead the NFL in points per game while their league-worst defense is giving up scoring in spades. As a result, all seven of the Seahawks games have combined to score at least 53 points and 5-of-7 contests have combined for at least 63. Seattle is getting some much-needed reinforcements in S Jamal Adams and newly-added DE Carlos Dunlap, but their impact might not matter for the overall shootout appeal in this spot. The Bills play fast and throw a ton, ranking top-10 in pass rate when both trailing (68%) and leading (57%). The over/under opened up at 53 points on Monday and has since ticked up to 55 as of Thursday morning.
Bears (30th in pace) vs. Titans (3rd)
Chicago’s games have largely been sluggish, low-scoring affairs and this game looks similar. Just three of the Bears’ 8 games have cleared 40 combined points this year with one being last week’s overtime affair with the Saints (49 combined points) and the other was against the gas-can Falcons (56 combined points). Tennessee plays fast and they are getting off a ton of plays (65.4 per game; eighth-most), but up against this Bears elite pass defense, we should expect a very run-heavy game plan from OC Arthur Smith this week. As 6.5-point home-favorites, Derrick Henry has 2-TD potential within his range of outcomes. Over the last two years, Henry is averaging 23.2 carries, 124.8 yards, and 1.3 TDs on a per game basis in Titans victories.
Dolphins (25th in pace) vs. Cardinals (2nd)
This game just screams for a run-heavy game plan from the Cardinals. While Arizona will push the pace and play volume when they have the ball, HC Kliff Kingsbury should use a heavy dose of Kyler Murray / Chase Edmonds on the ground because Miami is far easier to run on than pass against. In fact, the Dolphins are the biggest “run funnel” defense in the league. Miami is 3rd-best in FootballOutsiders DVOA pass defense metrics but 32nd against the run.
Raiders (22nd in pace) vs. Chargers (4th)
Despite HC Anthony Lynn being one of the most conservative head coaches in the league, the Chargers are quietly one of the fastest-paced teams and are just letting Justin Herbert loose. It’s too bad this franchise is cursed and is never allowed to win a close game. Over the Chargers’ last five contests, Herbert is averaging 39 pass attempts per game — which, for reference, is more volume than Matthew Stafford (35.1 attempts per game), Josh Allen (34.6), and Deshaun Watson (34.1). Because the Chargers are throwing it around and playing so quickly on offense, each of their last four games has all been shootouts and combined for at least 57 points. With the Chargers dictating the scoring pace, it should elevate the overall play volume even though the Raiders play slow and are run-heavy regardless of the score. Divisional matchups tend to be slightly lower scoring, but Vegas is on this game as a potential shootout as well. The over/under is set at 52 points, which is the third-highest on this slate behind the Seahawks-Bills (55) and Panthers-Chiefs (53).
Definitely slow-paced games
Ravens (24th in pace) vs. Colts (20th)
This one is a no brainer. Ravens-Colts profiles as a classically sluggish, defensively driven affair where both offenses struggle to put up points. Both teams are top-5 in DVOA defense and both teams want to run the ball regardless of the score, further hampering this game’s scoring appeal. Plus, it doesn’t help that Lamar Jackson is really struggling to read the field. Per SIS, Jackson is completing just 63% of his throws when he’s not pressured (the lowest rate in the league).
Lions (17th in pace) vs. Vikings (29th)
The over/under in this matchup has been ticking down all week — it opened at 53 and is down to 50 — and will continue to slide especially if Matthew Stafford (COVID) can’t play. The Vikings are going to try and run the ball with Dalvin Cook 25-30 times and play incredibly slow so their defense doesn’t have to see the field much. This week’s matchup is pretty much perfect for that style of game plan, too. The Lions woeful front-seven is giving up the third-most scrimmage yards per game to opposing RBs and rank a mediocre 21st in FootballOutsiders DVOA run defense metrics. Vegas is all over the Vikings side, too. Minnesota is favored by 4.5 points and their team total is up to 28 implied points, which is tied with the Steelers for fourth-highest on the slate. Dalvin Cook averages 31% more fantasy points per game in wins compared to losses, giving him the highest ceiling among running backs on this slate.