Pittsburgh Steelers (6-0) at Baltimore Ravens (5-1)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
- Marquise Brown - He’s seen 6+ targets in every game with 4+ catches in 5 of 6, so he’s been majorly active. I can’t call it a good matchup, but the Steelers can be thrown on. They have given up 9 TDs to WRs so far and A.J. Brown had a long catch-and-run TD against them last week. The Ravens will have to throw to win, and Brown’s matchup is a lot better than Mark Andrews.’
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
JuJu Smith-Schuster - He may have been featured due to the great matchup last week in the slot, but this week’s matchup is literally the worst possible against Marlon Humphrey so I would not be in a rush to start him and would hope to have a better option.
Mark Andrews - Surprisingly, he has yet to hit 60+ receiving yards this year and he’s been held to 30 yards or fewer three times. The Steelers have given up just 1 TD so far this year, so it’s not a good matchup. They had to help block more, but Titans Jonnu Smith and Anthony Firkser had just 3/16 receiving against the Steelers last week.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- J.K. Dobbins - He’s still a longshot, but with Mark Ingram out, Dobbins will get more work and could do something in the passing game. The Steelers give up the fewest FPG to the position (16.4), including just 3.3 YPC (2nd-fewest) and 58.5 rushing yards per game (2nd-fewest).
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Ben Roethlisberger - A season-high 268 passing yards last week, but a low 5.5 YPA and needed 49 attempts to get there. He has thrown for multiple TD passes in 5 of his 6 starts, at least, and the Ravens have allowed 30+ FP twice this season. But they have also held every other QB under 19 FP.
James Conner - He dropped a TD last week but he has accounted for 100+ scrimmage yards in 4 of his last 5. Tough matchup, though, since Miles Sanders needed a long run to become the only RB to run for 75+ yards against the Ravens, who have allowed just 2 TDs to RBs this season.
Diontae Johnson - Is the guy when he’s healthy, as Johnson has 10+ targets and a 30% target share or better in his three healthy games. He has a foot/toe/ankle issue, so he’s banged up again, but he’s hard to sit. But it’s one of the tougher matchups out there, as the Ravens have allowed just three TDs to WRs.
Chase Claypool - He had only 1 target last week, but he at least ran a route on 66% of their dropbacks (33 of 50) last week, so he’s still out there. It’s a tough matchup, but snaps and routes aren’t a problem.
Eric Ebron - Season-high eight targets last week and he finished with 6/50 receiving. Bad matchup, but the Ravens have allowed three TDs to TEs this season.
Lamar Jackson - He failed to reach 200+ passing yards for the fourth straight game in his last game, but he did have his first 100+ rushing game. The Steelers held Lamar to just 14.44 FPG in his only matchup last year, but they can be thrown on.
Gus Edwards - A desperation play only even if Mark Ingram is out as expected, since the Steelers give up the fewest FPG to the position (16.4), including just 3.3 YPC (2nd-fewest) and 58.5 rushing yards per game (2nd-fewest).
New England Patriots (2-4) at Buffalo Bills (5-2)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
None of note.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
Devin Singletary - He owned just a slight lead over Zack Moss in snaps (40 to 35), routes run (19 to 18), and opportunities (13 to 10) last week and now Moss may be usurping him as the primary guy soon, as soon as this week.
Cam Newton - He’s looked hopeless throwing the ball, way out of sync, late on throws, etc. He’s also averaging 7.6 carries per game over his last three after averaging 13.0 in his first two games and he has only 2 TDs in his last three games. The Bills had allowed 20+ FP to QBs in five straight games before playing the Jets last week, but Cam is tough to back with all his WR injuries as well.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
Zack Moss - Moss is closing in on passing Singletary in the pecking order and this could be the week he gets 12+ carries and 15+ opportunities. Deep backup Jeff Wilson looked like a pro-bowler against the Patriots last week, going for 112/3 rushing.
James White - No one knows what’s up with his usage and his personal problems are still in play as he played only 10 snaps last week even though the Pats got smoked and were playing from behind. I don’t know how you can use him with much confidence, but if desperate, no Edelman and Harry should help. White can line in the slot for Edelman, actually.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Josh Allen - Allen has come back to earth, as teams are playing more zone to force him to be patient. Allen has handled it fairly well, but he’s posted 18 or fewer FP in his last three games. He completed fewer than 50% of his passes against the Pats last year, which is also a concern. However, no Stephon Gilmore is huge, and Allen gets John Brown back. I’d bet he has a solid game, and he may run plenty in bad weather. He rushed for 12/69/1 last year against the Pats.
Stefon Diggs - He has 6+ catches in six of his seven games, but he’s failed to reach 50+ receiving yards in his last two. However, he will not see Stephon Gilmore, which is big.
John Brown - He will benefit from now Stephon Gilmore as well, and he usually produces something when healthy, but he’s a reach play only given his time missed, the weather, and a matchup that still isn’t fantastic.
Cole Beasley - He has 11+ FP in six straight games and he’s seen 6+ targets in three straight games with John Brown out or limited. Brown is back, though, and the Bills may not need Beasley as much as they recently have vs. the hapless Patriots.
Damien Harris - Only 21 snaps last week as they played from behind, but he did look great. The Bills are giving up 104.6 rushing yards per game to RBs on 4.4 YPC while allowing 1.0 rushing TDs per game, so Harris isn’t a lost cause.
Jakobi Meyers and Damiere Byrd - These two will be the top outside receivers with Gunner Olszewski also in the mix. Pass on all of them. The Bills are giving up the seventh-fewest FPG to WRs this season (33.0).
Tennessee Titans (5-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-5-1)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Ryan Tannehill - He’s had 2 TDs or more in 5 of 6 and is up against a Bengals defense that just allowed 297/5 passing to Baker Mayfield. Cincy has allowed multiple TD passes in four of their last five games. The weather doesn't look too bad, just some wind up to 20 MPH.
A.J. Brown - He has been 21+ FP in three straight games, and low-end guys Rashard Higgins and Donovan Peoples-Jones combined for 9/166/1 against the Bengals last week, so looking good.
Corey Davis - Has quietly posted 11+ FP in all of his 4 games and a season-high 10 targets last week, and Bengals just got beat up on by some low-end WRs.
Jonnu Smith - He wasn’t healthy last week and it showed, and he was likely needed to block more than usual. He’s off the injury report and the Bengals just gave up 3 TDs to the Browns last week and the Bengals lead the lead with 9 TE targets against them per game this season.
Derrick Henry - 19+ carries in every game and 7 TDs his last 4. The Bengals just traded Carlos Dunlap and are allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per game (113.6). It’s going to be cold and windy in Cincinnati, so buckle your chinstrap, Cincinnati.
Tyler Boyd - He dropped 11/101/1 on 13 targets on the Browns last week and now takes aim at a defense that is giving up the second-most FP out of the slot, per SIS, and one that JuJu Smith-Schuster posted 9/85 receiving on 14 targets against the Titans last week. The only problem is the OL issues.
Gio Bernard - If he can’t do it on the ground he can do it through the air, and last week Gio posted only 13/37 rushing but also 5/59/1 receiving and a 76% snap share, so he’s the guy and should be no worse than an RB2.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
None of note.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Joe Burrow - Will have several backups playing along the OL, including his two OTs, which is a problem with Miles Garrett on the other side. It’s a good matchup overall, especially with CB Adoree Jackson and rookie Kristian Fulton out again. If his OL gives him a chance, he should post good numbers, but the OL issues create some downside. The Titans at least don’t have a good pass rush and have allowed 250+ passing yards and 2+ TDs to QBs in five straight.
Tee Higgins - Has scored a TD and/or posted 60+ receiving 5 straight with 4+ catches in five straight. Diontae Johnson went nuts with 9/80/2 receiving on 15 targets against this secondary last week, so either he or AJG (or both) should do well.
A.J. Green - His best games of the season last 2 with 15/178 on 24 targets. The matchup is good for he and Tee Higgins, but they do have those OL issues.
Las Vegas Raiders (3-3) at Cleveland Browns (5-2)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Kareem Hunt - He’s handled 70% of the snaps and 75% opportunities while Nick Chubb has been out and he’s scored 18+ FP in 3 of his last 4. The Raiders are allowing the second-most FPG to RBs (32.4), and the bad weather should mean 20+ touches. The other RBs had only 1 opportunity last week.
Jarvis Landry - Bad weather game, but enhanced role likely now and the Raiders allowed 143/1 receiving to Buccaneers WRs out of the slot last week and give up the eight-most FP to slot receivers, per SIS.
Darren Waller - He’s posted 10+ FP in five of his six games, including 6/501/ receiving on nine targets against the Bucs last week. Browns have allowed 10+ FP five different times to opposing TEs.
Josh Jacobs - He’s over 3.7 YPC in just one game, but 3+ catches in 5 of 6. The Browns are allowing just 68.9 rushing yards per game to RBs (fifth-fewest) and 3.7 YPC, but the bad weather may ensure 20+ carries.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- Harrison Bryant - He saw more snaps (40 to 31) and he ran more routes (17 to 12) than David Njoku in Week 7 with 4/56/2 receiving on five targets against the Bengals last week. He may stay hot in a bad weather game as the Raiders allowed 42 FP to Travis Kelce (8/108/1 receiving) and Rob Gronkowski (5/62/) in their last two games.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Derek Carr - He’s thrown for 260+ yards and 2+ TDs in five straight with 21.4 FP Weeks 2-7. The weather is the problem because it will rain, likely the whole game, with wind. I have doubts about Carr in bad weather, which is a shame because the Browns have allowed four 25+ FP games to QBs this year, including last week Joe Burrow threw for 400+ yards and three TDs against them. I’d love him and his chances to make 1-2 big plays down the field in decent weather in this matchup.
Henry Ruggs - Only an 11% target share so far but the Browns struggled with the speed of James Washington (4/68/1 receiving) and Chase Claypool (4/74) two weeks ago and they play without a free safety, so they are vulnerable to big plays. The problem is the weather, which will be nasty.
Nelson Agholor - He’s played 79% of the snaps with a 17% target share in the last two weeks, and he’s quietly posted 14+ FP three straight. Again, I’d really like his chances if the weather was better, FWIW.
Baker Mayfield - Hit 18+ FP for the first time last week with a shocking 297/5, and the Raiders just allowed 369/4 passing to Tom Brady last week. But again, the weather is bad.
Rashard Higgins - Caught all 6 looks last week for 110 yards with a 21.4% target share and he ran a route on every one of Mayfield dropbacks after OBJ left the game last week. Higgins clicks well with Mayfield, owning a 71.1% catch rate with a 14.6 YPR in his three seasons since the QB joined the team.
Indianapolis Colts (4-2) at Detroit Lions (3-3)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Jonathan Taylor - Trending in the right direction for sure, with a snap share that has risen from 41% to 45% to 55% to 59% and he played 59% in their last game in a negative game script, a great sign. The Lions have allowed multiple rushing TDs to three different RBs, and the fourth-most rushing yards per game to RBs (114.2).
D’Andre Swift - Led the backfield with 13 touches and 28 snaps last week but Adrian Peterson is still involved as a runner with 12 touches and 19 snaps last week. Best news for Swift was Kerryon Johnson didn’t have a touch despite playing 14 snaps. It’s not a great matchup, but quality backs have produced solid totals against them recently.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- T.Y. Hilton - He's now failed to reach 70+ receiving yards in any game, but the Lions have at least allowed nine receivers to reach double-digit FP in their last four games. Much like I predicted a “breakout” game from Marvin Jones last week, which happened, I’m calling for Hilton over 75 yards today!
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Philip Rivers - He gets a good matchup, and rookie Michael Pittman back this week and posted 371/3 in his last game. He was playing from behind in that game, and the Colts are 3-point favorites. The Lions have allowed between 18-24 FP in five of their six games. Desmond Trufant is an inactive to look for today, if he’s out that helps.
Trey Burton - He was the TE4 in their last game and is averaging 5.3 targets/game in his first three games back, but the Colts will get Mo Alie-Cox back this week and the Lions are giving up the second-fewest FPG to TEs this season (7.4).
Matthew Stafford - 300+ yards for the first time last week, but only 32.4 attempts/game this year and Colts are allowing the second-fewest FPG to QBs this season (13.4). They have at least faced a soft group of QBs so far.
Kenny Golladay - He’s seen between 6-8 targets for 14-17 FP in each of his first four games and Tee Higgins posted 6/125 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago. He will see the ball and this is not a shutdown secondary by any stretch.
Marvin Jones - Showed up last week with season-highs in catches (5) and yards (80) after their OC talked about getting him more involved prior to Week 7. He is a streaky player, so he could keep it up. A.J. Green posted 8/96 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago.
T.J. Hockenson - Has scored a TD and/or posted 50+ receiving yards in every game and tied for most TE end-zone targets this year, but Colts are allowing the fewest FPG to TEs this season (5.1). But again, they haven’t exactly faced a great group of TEs.
Minnesota Vikings (1-5) at Green Bay Packers (5-1)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Aaron Rodgers - 2+ TDs in five of his six games and 4 TDs in half his games, and crushed them with 364/4 in Week 1. The Vikings are down two of their top-3-4 CBs and give up most points out of the slot, where his #1 WR lines up often.
Davante Adams - 14/156/2 receiving on 17 targets in this matchup back in Week 1 and Vikings are down two of their top-3-4 CBs and give up most points out of the slot, where Adams lines up often, so he should crush them if the weather isn’t horrible.
Jamaal Williams - He’s the guy again this week and 89% of the snaps with 23/114/1 total last week. A must-use in a bad weather game and one where they should move the ball still with ease.
Justin Jefferson - Won’t see as much of top CB Jaire Alexander and while he hasn’t yet crushed a zone-heavy team, he’s going to get the better matchup with CB King out than Thielen, and they should throw it a lot.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
None of note.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Dalvin Cook - Cook will return this week and while he could be on a pitch count, he has to be used. Cook scored 2 TDs but only 50 rushing yards against the Packers in Week 1.
Alexander Mattison - He did have 80 scrimmage yards in this matchup in Week 1, and he could get 7-10 touches if Cook is on a pitch count. Clearly, Mattison can only play well coming off the bench.
Kirk Cousins - Has 2 + TDs in 3 of his last 4 with 249+ yards in each of those games because their defense is bad and he’s throwing more. He threw for 259/2 passing against them in Week 1 and should be playing from behind, plus starting CB Kevin King is out.
Irv Smith - Trending in the right direction with 55+ receiving yards and 4 catches his last two with 79% of the snaps and a route run on 76% of Cousins’ dropbacks in their last game against the Falcons. Rob Gronkowski had 5/78/1 receiving against GB in Week 6.
Robert Tonyan - Banged up lately, and only 7% share in his four games with Adams, which is not good. The Vikings allowed 4/57/1 receiving to Hayden Hurst the last time out, at least.
New York Jets (0-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-1)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
None of note.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
- Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman - Robinson ran more routes than Hardman (21 to 11) again last week, but Robinson managed just 1 grab for 4 while Hardman had 70 scrimmage yards. Both look risky with the Chiefs unlikely to throw much.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
La’Mical Perine - OC Dowell Loggains took over the play-calling duties last week and gave Perine 70.2% of the snaps and 13 touches. Frank Gore was at 28.1% of the snaps with 11 touches, but Gore is questionable this week. The Chiefs are allowing 4.8 YPC and Perine could get some nice garbage time production, even in the passing game.
Denzel Mims - Saw a 32% target share in his first game and he ran a route on 79% of Darnold’s dropbacks and flashed last week. Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman are likely out (Perriman definitely is), so Mims isn’t a bad longshot.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Sam Darnold - Only 120 yards and 2 INTs last week. two INTs in his return off of his throwing shoulder injury. He has 3 TDs and 5 INTs and won’t have Breshad Perriman and Jamison Crowder (Doubtful).
Clyde Edwards-Helaire - Led the backfield with 53% of snaps but only 12 opportunities with Le’Veon Bell seeing a healthy 33% snap share with 6/39 rushing. Since it’s a “revenge game” you know Bell’s getting any goal line chances if there are any. The Chiefs should roll, so both guys should get chances to come through.
Le’Veon Bell - Saw a healthy 33% snap share with 6/39 rushing last week and since it’s a “revenge game” Bell’s likely getting some goal-line chances if there are any. The Chiefs should roll, so both guys should get chances to come through.
Patrick Mahomes - Attempted just 23 passes last week and fewer than 20 FP for the first time in six games. The Jets have allowed fewer than 250 passing yards in four of their last six games in large part because teams don’t have to throw a lot, so Mahomes needs to get it done early.
Travis Kelce - Just 3/31 last week and they won’t have to throw much again. But the Jets just allowed 4/64 receiving to Tyler Kroft and they’ve allowed 5 TDs to TEs in 7 games.
Tyreek Hill - Healthy 43% target share last week and 10 targets with 6/55/1 in sloppy conditions. Like Mahomes, he might need to do something early to have a big game or very good game.
Los Angeles Rams (5-2) at Miami Dolphins (3-3)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Darrell Henderson - He saw 72 snaps last two weeks to Malcolm Brown’s 57. He has 14+ carries in three straight and averaging 4.7 YPC, but Brown is the preferred short-yardage and receiving back. Still, the Dolphins are allowing 145.7 scrimmage yards per game to RBs with seven TDs in six games and Henderson could volume in a game they control.
Cooper Kupp - He will avoid the top outside CBs more than Woods this week, at least. Kupp has 11+ FP and 6+ targets in five of his last six games, and he does have the better matchup compared to Woods.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
- DeVante Parker - Still not 100% coming out of the bye but could click with Tua on in-breaking routes. But Parker will see some Jalen Ramsey, as much as the Rams see fit.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
None of note.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Jared Goff - He averaged 8.9 YPA or better in each of his first three games but he’s now maxed out at just 6.6 YPA and since they are managing him, he’s had fewer than 220 passing yards in three of his last four. He does have multiple TD passes in five of his last six, but his upside is seriously limited. The Dolphins are giving up the 10th-fewest FPG to QBs this season, but when truly tested by Russell Wilson (360/2 passing) and Josh Allen (415/4), they gave up production. Goff will need 2-3 TDs to come through, though, most likely.
Robert Woods - He has fewer than 40 receiving yards in four of his last six but at least has 10+ rushing yards in five of his seven games. He’ll see more Byron Jones and Xavien Howard on the perimeter this week than Cooper Kupp, but Woods is still running half of his routes out of the slot so far.
Tyler Higbee - Missed last week with his hand injury and no lock to play, so find another option.
Gerald Everett - Put up to 4/28/1 last week but wasn’t leading TE for the Ram even with Higbee out (the great Johnny Mundt had 3/47). The Dolphins limited George Kittle to 4/44 receiving in Week 5.
Myles Gaskin - 22 opportunities in their last game with 70% of the snaps and now has 14+ FP in four of his last five. The Rams are tough and we don’t know how Tua will do, but they do give up receiving production to RBs.
Tua Tagovailoa - He gets a brutal first matchup against a Rams defense that just sacked Nick Foles four times and picked him off twice.
Preston Williams - 2 or more catches just once in his first six games with Fitz so maybe things improve for him with Tua.
Mike Gesicki - Did not catch either of his two targets against the Jets in their last game Week 6 as TWO backup TEs scored in their last game. Gesicki has four games with 30 and two blow-up games for 90+ yards and 5+ catches, but he has been working with Tua on the scout team this year, which could give him a leg up on other receivers initially.
Los Angeles Chargers (2-4) at Denver Broncos (2-4)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Justin Herbert - He’s now shockingly third in the league in YPA (8.4) and he’s thrown 10 TDs to one INT. The Broncos have allowed between 18-23 FP to opposing QBs in their first six games and present a very beatable matchup.
Keenan Allen - He’s seen 31% of his team’s targets with 13.2 targets/game and he’s the WR7 since Herbert took over in Week 2 with 19.1 FPG, and nothing scary about this matchup.
Noah Fant - He and Albert O each saw seven targets last week, but five of Fant’s targets came in the first half when the game was still competitive. Fant seems better with his ankle injury and will be needed. The Chargers had allowed three TDs in two games before they faced the Jaguars out of their Week 6 bye.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
Mike Williams - Shockingly quiet game last week, as Herbert is throwing to people no one’s ever heard of. Williams has seen just eight targets in three games with Herbert, but he did have a big game with Herbert two weeks ago and this matchup is beatable. He averaged 10 targets and 95 yards/game in two games last year against Denver.
Joshua Kelley and Justin Jackson - Kelley led Jackson in snaps (38 to 31), carries (12 to 5), and targets (6 to 5) last week after Jackson led the backfield the game before. Broncos lost run-stuffing NT Mike Purcell to IR, which is good news for both, especially Kelley.
K.J. Hamler - Tim Patrick suffered a hamstring injury last week and won’t play, so Hamler is needed on the outside. I can see 7+ targets for him in this one.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Hunter Henry - He’s tailed off with Herbert and Donald Parham and Virgil Green are stealing looks, although Green got hurt last week. Henry has still seen 7+ in five of six games, at least. He’s still a top-12 guy for sure.
Drew Lock - Hasn’t thrown for multiple TDs in seven straight games and hit 250 yards last week for the first time since Week 14 last season. It’s still hard to trust him with #1 WR Tim Patrick out.
Jerry Jeudy - He’s been bad with 2 catches in three straight games, after seeing his fewest targets in a game (4) even with Lock throwing it 40 times against the Chiefs in Week 7. The Chargers are middle of the pack in terms of FP given up out of the slot.
Melvin Gordon - Struggled in Week 7 with a fumble lost and some other sloppy plays but bailed you out with a late TD. But Lindsay still out-rushed him (79 to 68) despite seeing eight fewer carries (9 to 17). At least the Chargers have allowed 115+ total yards to an opposing RB in three straight games.
Phillip Lindsay - Lindsay still out-rushed Melvin Gordon last week (79 to 68) despite seeing eight fewer carries (9 to 17). He suffered a concussion last week but could be back today. He’s a reach only, but the Chargers have allowed 115+ total yards to an opposing RB in three straight games.
New Orleans Saints (4-2) at Chicago Bears (5-2)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Alvin Kamara - He’s averaging 15.7 FPG as a receiver, which will come in handy this week with Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, and Marquez Callaway out. The Bears have been stingy to RBs in the passing game but haven’t seen a guy like AK and Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson combined for 25/120/1 rushing last week.
Jared Cook - He’s been primarily used as a red-zone threat even with Thomas out but an uptick in looks should be in the cards given their WR injuries. The Bears have allowed more TDs to TEs (4) than they have to WRs (2) this season.
Jimmy Graham - He has posted 33+ yards and 5+ targets in each of Foles’ five games and the Saints are still giving up the second-most FPG to TEs this season. They have allowed 6 TDs in six games.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
- Drew Brees - Playing better and 2+ TD passes in 3 of his last 4, but the toughest matchup for opposing QBs so far and he’s not the same guy outdoors in the cold. Oh, and Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, and Marquez Callaway are out.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
Tre’Quan Smith - They still have Jared Cook and WR Deonte Harris (4/46/1 last week), but Smith will be needed after he put up (4/54) last week. But the Bears have allowed a league-low two TDs to WRs this season.
Darnell Mooney - Won’t likely see a boost in targets with A-Rob playing. The Saints have at least allowed the second-most 40+ yard receptions this season. Mooney is close to making a big play and the Saints did give up a bust bomb TD to DJ Moore last week.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Nick Foles - He’s been pretty bad and is throwing off his back foot way too much and hasn’t reached 18+ FP in any of his starts yet. At least the Saints are allowing third-most FPG to QBs this season (28.9) and Allen Robinson will play. Foles could actually get 2 TDs this week because they won’t run the ball well.
Allen Robinson - He’s going to go despite his concussion last week. The Saint pass defense has been bad, at least, and they have had communication issues and gave up a bust bomb TD to DJ Moore last week.
Anthony Miller - Won’t likely see a boost in targets with A-Rob playing. The Saints have at least allowed the second-most 40+ yard receptions this season, but Miller hasn’t hit 30+ receiving yards since Foles became the starter in Week 4.
David Montgomery - Stonewall Montgomery is averaging 18.7 opportunities/game but only RB27 right now. He’s averaging an ugly 3.1 YPC his last 5 and he gets another tough matchup this week against a Saints defense that’s allowing 3.5 YPC to RBs and just 30.2 receiving yards per game to backs.
San Francisco 49ers (4-3) at Seattle Seahawks (5-1)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Jimmy Garoppolo - He’s been throwing a bunch of screen passes lately but will have to do more against a potent offense, most likely. Seattle won’t have its top corner and DE Carlos Dunlap just got there so he won’t likely help their poor pass rush. They give up the second-most FPG to QBs this season (28.1).
Brandon Aiyuk - He’s leading this WR corps this week after career-best numbers last week with 6/115 on 7 targets on a 28% target share. The Seahawks are giving up a whopping 61.6 FPG to WRs this season.
George Kittle - He should get more looks with Deebo out and he’s seen 7+ targets and 4+ catches in four straight games. Seattle's Jamal Adams is a GTD, but not a TE matchup guy. If he’s out that’s good news for the whole offense, though. Seattle’s not giving up numbers to TEs, but that’s mainly because they’ve been crushed by WRs.
D.K. Metcalf got shut down by Patrick Peterson last week but he posted 12/151/1 receiving in two games against the 49ers last season and he will be the man they pick to attack the 49ers, so a big game is in play.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
Carlos Hyde - He’s expected to miss this week.
Chris Carson - He’s dealing with a foot problem and I’d say he’s leaning toward the doubtful side. But check the site and our Week 8 projections for the latest today.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
Kendrick Bourne - Bourne saw 5+ targets in each of his first four games before Deebo returned to the lineup and took on a bigger role. Bourne won’t be a sexy option this week, but he has a chance to reach double-digit FP for the fourth time this week in a juicy matchup against the Seahawks.
DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer - Homer is banged up (knee) and may also miss this week, so the rookie Dallas, a 4th round pick, might be their primary back. He’s talented and he can catch the ball well, so he’s worth using if you need a RB this week. It’s just not a good matchup, as the 49ers are allowing the second-fewest FPG to RBs (17.0).
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Russell Wilson - He has an insane 31+ FP in 4 of his 6 games and he’s thrown for 3+ TDs in 5 of 6. The 49er secondary has been pretty solid the last two week, especially CB Jason Verrett, but this is not a shutdown defense, and their pass rush isn’t as ferocious as it was last year. They also have a few key defensive guys likely out (Tartt, Alexander).
Tyler Lockett - Huge game last week, which makes him risky to come up small. Slot man Cooper Kupp had only 3/11 receiving on nine targets against San Francisco two weeks ago and slot ace K’Waun Williams is back this week. Lockett totaled fewer than 80 yards in two games against Williams and the 49ers last week.
Greg Olsen - Just 3/38 receiving on four targets his last 2 and the 49ers are one of two teams that have yet to allow a touchdown to a TE this season.
JaMycal Hasty, Jerick McKinnon, and Tevin Coleman - They are all in the mix this week with Coleman activated from IR. McKinnon has played on fewer than 32% of the snaps the last three games and is having problems getting through the long season, so he may be the least appealing guy here, actually. But it’s an impossible call. Hasty is ultimately the best option, I think. The Seahawks have been good against the run this year, but they gave up 180 total yards and 9 catches in their last game to Chase Edmonds and Kenyan Drake.
Dallas Cowboys (2-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-4-1)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Carson Wentz - He’s rolling now with 28+ FP in consecutive games and 22+ FP in four of his last five and now gets Jalen Reagor and Dallas Goedert back. The Cowboys defense has had a lot of missed assignments and has given up 15 TD passes in their last six games.
Boston Scott - Miles Sanders is out and Scott led the backfield last week with 15/92/1. Corey Clement is nowhere right now, so Scott is looking very good in this matchup with 15+ opportunities likely. The Cowboys just gave up a season-best performance to Antonio Gibson last week who posted 20/128/1 rushing.
Travis Fulgham - He has a 26% target share the last 3 weeks, but that will drop this week. It’s a good matchup, though.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
Ezekiel Elliott - He’s been terrible but his OL will get back two starters this week (G Martin, C Looney). But The Eagles are allowing just 3.3 YPC and they’re also limiting opposing RBs to just 4.1 catches per game, and Dallas is a big underdog. It could get ugly.
Amari Cooper - He will see a lot of top CB Darius Slay, which combined with the rookie QB, is a problem for Cooper this week.
Michael Gallup - He’s a lost cause as their primary boundary corner this year. He has three performances with fewer than 5 FP in his last five games.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
Jalen Reagor - He will play Z with Fulgham at X on the outside. Terry McLaurin posted 7/90/1 receiving in this matchup last week and Reagor is a big play waiting to happen.
Greg Ward - He has 4+ catches in three of his last four games and TDs in three of his last five games and the Cowboys have allowed 13 TDs to WRs this season and give up the ninth-most FP to slot WRs this year.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Ben DiNucci - He has some ability with athleticism and he can process quickly, but he’s not ready for prime time. The Dallas OL is a little healthy, at least, but the Philly defense may get aggressive to try to rattle the rookie.
CeeDee Lamb - It was the Silence of the Lamb last week with 0 catches, but he has the best chance to produce in the slot. Golden Tate made his two targets count last week as he caught a 39-yard touchdown against the Eagles.
Dalton Schultz - He hasn’t reached 8 FP in each of his last three games but at least Evan Engram (10.9 FP) and Nick Boyle (12.3) have reached double-digit FP against the Eagles in each of the last two weeks.
Dallas Goedert and Richard Rodgers - Rodgers had a big game last week but, but Goedert is back so he can’t be used. The Cowboys just allowed 4/60/1 receiving to Logan Thomas last week and four different TEs have posted 11+ FP against Dallas this season.
