For fantasy purposes, it’s better to have players in games that feature teams that play fast and run a lot of plays. Why? Faster paced offenses drain less clock in between plays which gives the game more overall play volume. And more play volume = more opportunities.
In this weekly column, I’ll highlight a few games that project for more pace and plays and some spots that could underwhelm.
Fast-paced games
Rams vs. Washington
Despite having the worst quarterback situation in the league, Washington is quietly one of the fastest pace teams in the league. They’re ripping plays off at the third-fastest clip and their play volume has increased dramatically because of it. Washington is running 65.5 plays per game, which is way up from their league-low 55.3 plays per game in 2019. The Rams rank top-8 in both pace and plays and will push the overall volume in this spot as well. Vegas is lower on this matchup because of the Kyle Allen effect -- the 45.5 over/under is the third-lowest for Week 5 -- but there is a chance the extra play volume alone pushes this game towards the over.
Giants vs. Cowboys
Any game the Cowboys play in this year will be up in pace. Because their defense is so bad, HC Mike McCarthy knows he has to try and win games by putting up a ton of points. It’s honestly not unlike how some college teams play. This year, Dallas is first in both pace and plays per game, ripping off plays 3-4 seconds faster than anyone else in the league. Their 77.3 plays per game is basically 12 plays above league-average, which is almost an entire quarter’s worth of play volume. So while teams like the Vikings play slow and run a lot (and also have a terrible defense), the Cowboys are doing the opposite and the result has been a gold mine for fantasy. Dak Prescott is averaging a league-high 32.2 fantasy points per game while their defense is facing 84.5 plays per game (second-most). After a brutal opening stretch of opponents, this is a perfect bounce-back spot for Daniel Jones and the Giants offense.
Panthers vs. Falcons
The Falcons are like the discount Cowboys, except that Dak Prescott is playing significantly better than Matt Ryan and has all of his receivers fully healthy. Atlanta isn’t playing as fast as Dallas, but they’re definitely trying. The Falcons are fourth in pace and third in plays per game while their defense is getting absolutely steam-rolled, further elevating the overall volume in their matchups. Opponents are putting up a ton of points and in a hurry on the Falcons, as their defense is giving up the third-most points allowed per drive while ranking only 9th in time of possession per drive against them (2:41). For this week, expect another shootout and plenty of opportunity for both Teddy Bridgewater and Mike Davis.
Slow-paced games
Bengals vs. Ravens
One of the main reasons Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews have been so boom/bust to start this season is because the Ravens are not only run-heavy, but they’re also playing incredibly slow. Throughout the first month, Baltimore is third-from-last in both pace and plays per game. The good news for Joe Burrow and the Bengals this week is that it might not necessarily limit their overall play volume on offense. The Ravens have led on 81% of their plays so far this year (third-best), which is forcing opposing offenses to throw a ton against them to try and get back into the game. Baltimore’s defense is facing the fifth-most pass attempts per game (42.5) and they should face similar volume this week if the Ravens build an early lead as the spread suggests. The Ravens are massive 13-point home favorites.
Vikings vs. Seahawks
This game features the biggest over/under of the week (57), but the slowest-paced matchup between these two offenses that are moving at snail speed. Minnesota is currently the fourth-slowest team in the NFL while Seattle is sixth-slowest. For comparison’s sake, both the Vikings (32.1 seconds/play) and Seahawks (31.6) are getting plays off nearly 10 seconds slower than the Cowboys (23.6) and about five seconds slower than the Falcons and Washington. These two basement-level defenses are what has pushed this total up to nearly 60 points, but I’m a little concerned this matchup ends up being a little more sluggish. The Vikings defense is getting ripped to shreds while their offense is still running the ball a ton no matter the game-script, which is not a winning recipe.