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Here are our favorite Week 16 ThriveFantasy Player Props.
Note: Picks will be added at the end of the week for Sunday games.
Christmas Day Football
Merry Christmas! We get a rematch of Minnesota’s stunning overtime victory over the Saints in the Wild Card Round from last season. The stakes aren’t quite as high this time around with the Vikings eliminated from playoff contention. I prefer Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards player prop as a bet and I’m also looking at Justin Jefferson (Min) over 4.5 receptions (85 pts). Jefferson has become the #1 WR in Minnesota over the last three weeks with 21/264/1 receiving on 31 targets since Adam Thielen returned to the lineup. I like his chances to get to five catches with his current target volume. I’m also looking at Emmanuel Sanders (NO) over 55.5 receiving yards (90 pts) with the Saints thinned out at receiver with Michael Thomas and Tre’Quan Smith out of the lineup. Sanders saw just a 14.7% target share last week, but he turned his five targets into 4/76 receiving. He now has 4+ catches and 55+ receiving yards in each of his last four games with Drew Brees. Good luck and enjoy the holiday! — Tom Brolley
Saturday Games
We get a three-pack of games this Saturday, which includes four teams trying to make a push for the playoffs. For the first game, I’m taking Leonard Fournette (TB) over 57.5 rushing yards (110 pts) with Ronald Jones once again sitting out this week. Len turned 17 touches into 65 yards in a tough matchup with Falcons front seven last week, but he’ll get the easiest matchup for RBs this week. The Lions have given up 25+ FP to Derrick Henry and David Montgomery in consecutive weeks. I’m grabbing Christian Kirk (Ari) under 4.5 receptions (85 pts) in the late-afternoon contest. Kirk hasn’t reached double-digit FP in six straight games, and he’s failed to top 35+ receiving yards in four straight contests. He had just a zero-yard catch on five targets against the 49ers in the season opener so I’m going to continue to fade Kirk. In the nightcap, I’m taking Derek Carr (LV) under 270.5 passing yards (100 pts) as it looks like he’ll try to play through his groin issue. I’m a little skeptical that he’ll be able to play effectively for 60 minutes after it looked like he got shot by a sniper last week. Patrick Mahomes is the only quarterback the Dolphins have faced in the last six weeks who has thrown for more than 270 yards. Use this Saturday as a warmup for the Wild Card Round when we’ll once again get three more Saturday games. Good luck! — Tom Brolley
Sunday Games
It’s the most important Sunday of the season for the fantasy community with league titles on the line across the planet. I’d be benching Russell Wilson this week in his matchup with the Rams and I’d be looking to play a guy like Baker Mayfield. I’m taking Baker Mayfield (Cle) over 1.5 passing TDs (90 pts) in a great matchup with the Jets. Baker is averaging 308.0 passing yards per game with 10 TDs and one INT in his last four games. He’s also attempted 32+ passes in three straight games after failing to reach that mark in six straight games in Weeks 6-11. The Jets are allowing 288.3 passing yards (3rd-most) and 2.1 passing TDs (2nd-most) per game so Baker has a great chance to get to double-digit TDs this week. I’m also looking at Giovani Bernard (Cin) over 51.5 rushing and receiving yards (100 pts) in one of fantasy’s best matchups against the Texans. Gio posted 22.7 FP against the NFL’s toughest defense against fantasy RBs last week in the Steelers. Houston is giving up 5.4 YPC and 180.9 scrimmage yards per game to RBs after Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines combined for 149/1 scrimmage last week. I’m taking Allen Robinson (Chi) over 77.5 receiving yards (95 pts) for my final prop in his revenge spot against his former team. A-Rob comes into Week 16 with four straight games with 74+ yards since their Week 11 bye, and he’s averaging 6.8/88.8/.8 receiving on 9.5 targets per game in those contests. Good luck this weekend and may you bring home all of our fantasy championships. — Tom Brolley
