Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) at Miami Dolphins (8-4)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Travis Kelce - An insane 8+ catches his last five games, and Drew Sample of all people posted 7/49 receiving in this matchup last week. Miami has a pair of top corners, so it could be another Kelce game.
Mike Gesicki - He’s been good since Preston Williams left the lineup and he now has a TD in two straight with 35+ yards in each of his last five games since Williams left the lineup. Coming off his best game with 9/88/1, he looks like a good play with a solid matchup and their RB issues. Noah Fant posted 4/57 receiving in this matchup last week, but it should have been more.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- DeAndre Washington - He will have to lead the Dolphins backfield with Myles Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed, and Matt Breida all out. Washington has some juice and receiving ability and he did handle 15 touches in Week 12 with some success (60 yards). He has a legit chance to get you 10+ PPR points.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Patrick Mahomes - He’s been going nuts with the team going so pass-heavy, but he did throw for only 1 TD last week and the Dolphins have allowed the second-fewest passing TDs to QBs (14). I can’t say he’s looking better than usual.
Tyreek Hill - Just missed 2 TDs last week and the Dolphins are allowing a generous 13.9 YPR to WRs this season. But they do have two very good corners and have given up only 2 TDs to WRs their last four.
Sammy Watkins - He has only 8/73 receiving on 13 targets his last two games back, and that’s despite Mahomes throwing it a lot. It’s not a particularly good matchup, since Miami has two very good corners and have given up only 2 TDs to WRs in their last four.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire - He was active last week but he didn’t play a snap due to his illness. We all got screwed. His numbers are underwhelming to be kind, but it has been easier to run on Miami than to throw. Melvin Gordon scored against them twice in Week 11. CEH is hardly hopeless and could have a big game any given week.
Tua Tagovailoa - Nearly impossible to trust but he did have a season-high 296 passing yards last week with a solid 7.6 YPA. The Chiefs had allowed 275+ yards and 2+ TD in three straight games before shutting down Drew Lock and the bad Broncos passing game.
DeVante Parker - He’s suffering with Tua, as he’s failed to reach 13+ FP or 65+ yards in any of Tua’s four games. But not hopeless, of course, since he gets plenty of targets and big WRs Tim Patrick (4/44/2 receiving) and Mike Evans (3/50/2) have hurt the Chiefs their last two games.
Denver Broncos (4-8) at Carolina Panthers (4-8)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Melvin Gordon - Looked freaking great last week with 15/131 rushing (8.7 YPC). He’s still tougher to trust with 0 TDs his last six games and only 2 catches in his last five games, but the matchup is good with the Panthers allowing a generous 4.7 YPC and 100.0/.8 rushing per game to RBs.
Robby Anderson - Targets won’t be a problem with DJ Moore out and Robby will get some relief this week after CB A.J. Bouye received a suspension for PEDs and with CB Bryce Callahan out.
Curtis Samuel - He will return, and while risky coming off the Covid list, he could easily get 10+ opportunities. He has 5+ catches and 70+ yards in his last two games, and he’s reached double-digit FP in 6 of his last 7 games. The CB absences for Denver will obviously help his chances.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- Tim Patrick - He’s the guy at WR here with 60+ yards or a TD in four straight. The Panthers are giving up a touchdown per game to WRs and their corners are beatable, so he’s a solid lower-end option.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Drew Lock - He’s been a mess and has failed to reach 13+ FP in three straight. He’s a desperation play only, and a so-so one.
Jerry Jeudy - Lock is not throwing much to him with just 8/110 receiving since his big game against the Falcons in Week 9. He can’t be used with any confidence whatsoever.
Noah Fant - He 10+ just once in his last nine games but his 57 receiving yards last week were the most he’s had since Week 2, and he should have had more but the Broncos threw it only 28 times. The Panthers have given up seven double-digit FP performances to TEs in their last six games.
Mike Davis - He’s almost certain to be the guy again with Christian McCaffrey NOT expected back from his shoulder injury. The Broncos are allowing 138.9 scrimmage yards and 5.1 catches per game to RB, so even a worn down Davis is certainly worth using.
Teddy Bridgewater - Coming off his worst game and no DJ Moore. The Broncos are allowing just 224.3 passing yards per game to QBs (6th-fewest), BUT they won’t have A.J. Bouye (suspension) or key corner Bryce Callahan, which should make the matchup a lot easier.
Houston Texans (4-8) at Chicago Bears (5-7)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
- Keke Coutee - Chad Hansen ran more routes (47) last week but that was followed by
Coutee (42) and he had a big game with 8/141 on 9 targets (23.7% share). Coutee also had more air yards and the Bears just got burned for 17/302/2 receiving by the Lions WRs last week and more importantly for Coutee, their solid slot corner Buster Skrine is out. UPDATE (10AM ET): With Brandin Cooks expected to miss the game, Coutee is looking even better.
Duke Johnson - David Johnson is out, and he had a 58% snap share, so Duke should see the field a ton with some CJ Prosise mixed in. The Bears have given up double-digit FP to four different backs in the last three weeks after Adrian Peterson posted 16/57/2 rushing. Duke’s chemistry with Watson in the passing game is improving, so I think 12 FP is very doable. No Cooks could help Duke’s passing game action.
David Montgomery - He’s now at 5.8 YPC (55/321/2 rushing) in his four full games with Trubisky, likely because he plays under center compared to in shotgun. Montgomery has lucked into another great matchup against the Texans, who are allowing league-highs in YPC (5.2) and rushing yards per game (139.8) to RBs.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
Cole Kmet - He is now their #1 TE and he’s out-snapped Jimmy Graham in three straight. He posted a career-best 5/37/1 on a team-best seven targets (20.6% share) last week. If desperate, T.J. Hockenson posted 5/89 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago on Turkey Day.
Jordan Akins - He has just 2/10 receiving on 56 routes over the last two weeks, so he has flopped after it looked like he was coming on. Of course, when you bury a guy like this, that’s when he does well. The Bears defense has really fallen off and they have been hit hard by TEs in their last four games: TJ Hockenson (7/84), Robert Tonyan (5/67/1), Kyle Rudolph (4/63) and Jonnu Smith (2/32/1). That works out to 20.1 FPG.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Deshaun Watson - Still hit 21.4 FP despite 0 TD passes thanks to 341 passing yards and a rushing TD. The Bears have really fallen off on defense and have allowed 18+ FP in three straight games, including 3+ TD games for Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford in their last two games. They will also not have slot corner Buster Skrine, who has been good this year. No Cooks does hurt his chances, though.
Brandin Cooks - Not expected to play.
Mitchell Trubisky - He played well last week, but his 4th-quarter fumble was a killer. Philip Rivers posted 285/2 passing last week in this matchup in Houston’s first game since Bradley Roby got suspended, so Mitchell isn’t hopeless. But I don’t fully back him ever unless he’s playing the Lions.
Allen Robinson - No Bradley Roby helps, and while he’s underwhelmed, A-Rob has 6+ catches in five straight. Michael Pittman disappointed last week in this matchup, but TY Hilton went off on the other side last week.
Darnell Mooney - Dealing with a personal issue so hard to trust, but if he’s active the Texans have had issues with speedy WRs like T.Y. Hilton (8/110/1 receiving) and Damiere Byrd (6/132/1) in the last three weeks.
Dallas Cowboys (3-9) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-9-1)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Ezekiel Elliott - Dealing with a bruise in his calf, so he should be okay. He did look good last week and he’s now at least had 95+ yards in two of the three games since Dalton came back. The Bengals are a good matchup, allowing 5.0 YPC and 117.8 rushing yards per game to RBs. Even Myles Gaskin put up 141 total yards on 24 touches in this matchup last week.
Amari Cooper - 14+ FP in each of his last three games with Dalton, and the Bengals just lost a corner in Tony Brown, so I’d keep starting him. It’s a tougher matchup in the slot for CeeDee Lamb, too.
Giovani Bernard - They just lost their star LT Jonah Williams, which stinks, and Gio has also stunk. He hasn’t hit 10+ FP in four straight but there is hope this week. The Cowboys just gave up 294/2 rushing to the Ravens last week. It’s a different running game, but they have been bad against the run all year, so Gio has a chance to get 12+ FP. Dallas is now allowing 5.1 YPC to RBs this season.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
- CeeDee Lamb - He has 4+ catches in each game but he hasn’t topped 50+ yards since Dalton returned to the lineup. Slot corner Mackensie Alexander has been very good this year, and the Bengals have ranked as a top-10 team vs. slot WRs all year. So while he could always make a play or two, he’s looking worse than usual.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
Michael Gallup - He’s coming on big time the last two weeks with 19 targets and 11/127/1. It’s a medium matchup with the Bengals giving up the 14th-most FPG (37.3) to WRs this season, but they are down one rotational corner and I’d roll with the hot hand if I needed Gallup.
Dalton Schultz - He has 4+ catches in four straight as Dalton goes to him fairly often. The Bengals have struggled against TEs most of this season and over the last two weeks with Evan Engram (6/129 receiving) and Mike Gesicki (9/88/1) have exploded.
Giovani Bernard - They just lost their star LT Jonah Williams, which stinks, and Gio has also stunk. He hasn’t hit 10+ FP in four straight but there is hope this week. The Cowboys just gave up 294/2 rushing to the Ravens last week. It’s a different running game, but they have been bad against the run all year, so Gio has a chance to get 12+ FP. Dallas is now allowing 5.1 YPC to RBs this season.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Andy Dalton - For one, it’s a revenge game. But seriously, the matchup isn’t outstanding as the Bengals have allowed fewer than 17 FP to the likes of Tua Tagovailoa, Daniel Jones, and Alex Smith in the last three weeks. Still, Dalton’s weapons are showing up lately, so he's a good bet for decent digits.
Brandon Allen - Had a fluky long TD to Tyler Boyd last week but otherwise averaged just 2.5 yards per play last week against the Dolphins and he has only 256/3 passing in his first two starts and he did get hurt last week. The Cowboys are allowing 20.4 FPG to QBs (9th-most) and they have had a ton of busts on defense all year.
Tyler Boyd - He has just four catches in his first two games without Jor Burrow, so he’s hard to trust. Dallas hasn’t faced a top-flight slot WR since JuJu Smith-Schuster in Week 9, and he posted 6/93/1, so it’s not hopeless.
Drew Sample - Actually led the Bengals with seven targets (25.9% share) last week and put up 7/49 receiving against Miami. But the Cowboys haven’t allowed 30+ receiving yards to a TE since Week 7.
Tennessee Titans (8-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-11)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Derrick Henry - Bad game last week but we can see them going back to basics with a major commitment, which is usually the case anyway. Things are looking good against the Jaguars, who are 7.5-point road dogs in a tough spot. He managed just 25/84 rushing against them earlier this season, but he’s at 4.7 YPC against them his last 3 and they’re giving up 4.8 YPC their last four to RBs.
Ryan Tannehill - I’m always worried about Derrick Henry bogarting all the production, and that’s in play this week, but RT has 19+ FP in three straight after a big game with 389/3 against the Browns last week. He put up 239/4 in this matchup earlier this season, and he’s average 30! FPG against them in his last three dating back to last week. So hard not to be optimistic with the Jaguars giving up 250+ yards and 2 or more TDs in six straight.
A.J. Brown - You kinda have to ignore the injury report with him, but he worked fully Friday. He hasn’t had more than 4 grabs in a game in six games but still has 11+ FP in 5 of those 6. Justin Jefferson posted 9/121/1 receiving in this matchup last week. It’s a good matchup.
Corey Davis - He has 10+ FP in 9 of his 10 games with 65+ yards in four straight. Adam Thielen posted 8/75/1 receiving in this matchup last week. He remains a top WR3 this week.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
Mike Glennon - Not playing that well on film but he’s been aggressive and he’s moving the ball and putting up decent numbers. He has 515/3 passing in two starts and he’s now going up against a Titans defense that just got torched by Baker Mayfield for 290/4 passing in the first damn half. The Titans will be without top CB Adoree Jackson yet again, which helps.
Jonnu Smith - Anthony Firkser got all of his 5/51 receiving late last week, not a great sign for him with Jonnu out. And Jonnu is back this week. Firkser posted 4/45 receiving in this matchup back in Week 2 as the Jags gave up a combined 8/129/2 receiving to Firkser and Jonnu, who had 4/82/2. Jonnu seems to be good to go, so he’s not a horrible longshot play for upside.
Tyler Eifert - He’s been limited this week with a shoulder injury, so he’s even more risky. But he’s been decent since Glennon took over with 9/61/1 on 10 targets in two games, including two red-zone looks. He also posted 3/36/1 on 6 targets in this matchup earlier in the season and Tennessee has given up 7 TDs to TEs this season and the seventh-most FPG (14.5) to the position. The shoulder is a shame but he’s a viable reach this week.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
James Robinson - Little banged up with a knee issue, but he keeps getting the ball. The Titans are giving up 134.8 scrimmage yards per game to RBs, and Robinson put up 120 total yards back in Week 2.
Jaguars WRs - I don’t know how you use any of these guys unless desperate, since Glennon is also throwing often to two different TEs. D.J. Chark led them with 43 routes and seven targets last week and then it was Keelan Cole (37, 2), Collin Johnson (29, 6), Laviska Shenault (15, 3), and Chris Conley (4, 2). Chark has been a major disappointment, so he’s really hard to use with Johnson emerging as Glennon’s favorite target. Johnson has 8/162/1 on 14 targets with Glennon the last two weeks. Laviska Shenault had a fluke TD last week. I’d use Johnson as a reach play if desperate and would hope I have a better option than Chark.
Arizona Cardinals (6-6, 5-7 ATS) at New York Giants (5-7, 8-4)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Wayne Gallman - Gallman got vultured twice by Alfred Morris last week but did put up a career-best 135 rushing yards. Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson combined for 121/2 rushing and 3/47 receiving against the Cardinals last week, so he’s once again a really nice flex. I just wish they threw the ball to him a little more. Getting Daniel Jones may help.
Sterling Shepard - Managed just 1/22 receiving on 6 targets with Colt McCoy last week, but he clicks very well with Daniel Jones. The Cardinals are giving up a promising 18 catches a game to WRs the last four weeks, and I’m not worried about Patrick Peterson for Shepard.
Evan Engram - Only 4/32 with McCoy last week but 8 targets again. He now has 8+ targets in 5 of his last 6 games. The Ram TEs combined for 10/68/1 against the Cards last week.
Kenyan Drake - He has a hip thing but that’s hard to panic about with no more info. He has been good for 10+ FP in four straight and has 4 TDs and 10/55 receiving the last three weeks. Chris Carson had few problems putting up 13/65 rushing and 3/45/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
Kyler Murray - He’s been a shell of his former self with just five rushing attempts in each of his last three games for a total of 61 yards. That is sad. He’s also not completing passes down the field, as his aDOT has been under 7.0 yards in each of his last three games. The Giants defense is very disciplined, and they did an amazing job on Russell Wilson last week, limiting him to 263/1 passing and 7/45 rushing. So it’s a bad spot for him on the road across the country.
Christian Kirk - He’s been crushed by mostly Murray’s injury and lack of downfield prowess. He’s nothing but a hail mary play at this point with Murray showing no signs of improvement and the road matchup tougher.
DeAndre Hopkins - Only 18/158/1 on 28 targets the last three weeks, but he’s also seen tough corners, and he will again this week, at least at times, against James Bradberry. D.K. Metcalf managed 5/80 receiving on eight targets in this matchup last week. Yikes.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- Daniel Jones - He’s seemingly good to go, but risky in general with a hammy. But the Cardinals have allowed 20+ FP to five straight good QBs (excluding Cam Newton, who isn’t good), so Jones is viable if you need upside. Keep in mind he may not run as much, though.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Golden Tate - Caught all 4 of his targets for 30 yards last week and the Cards do give up the fourth-most FPG to slot WRs, if very desperate.
Darius Slayton - Caught his only target last week for 14 yards, but even with Jones back, Slayton has only a 12% target share since Shepard returned to the lineup. He can beat Patrick Peterson for a big play, but that’s a tougher matchup overall, so hard to back him.
Minnesota Vikings (6-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Kirk Cousins - 290+ yards and 2 or more TDs in four straight with 18+ FP in five straight. The Bucs will likely improve on defense coming out of the bye, but they have been destroyed by QBs lately. They have allowed a league-high 28.0 FPG to QBs since Week 9 with Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff combining for 838/6 passing in their last two games. Kirkie will be playing from behind and will likely throw it 40+ times, and good numbers should come.
Justin Jefferson - He has 70+ yards in four straight and is second in the league in yards per route run (2.87). He now goes against a Buccaneers secondary that just gave up 13/269/3 to Tyreek Hill.
Adam Thielen - He has 20+ FP in three straight with 5 TDs to give him a league-best 11 TDs on 16 end-zone targets. The Bucs have given up 14 TDs to WRs this season, which is a lot. No Kyle Rudolph (doubtful) may add a target or two to Thielen.
Tom Brady - Struggling but still has 19+ FP in 4 of his last 6 with 275+ yards and 2 TDs or more in those four. Coming out of the bye and with LB Eric Kendricks back, against a thinned and young Vikings group of corners with not much of a pass rush, Brady could go off here.
Mike Evans - Dealing with a knee issue but 9+ targets in three straight with a TD in each game. There’s only one ball, so none of these guys are locks, but the Vikings have allowed the second-most TDs to WRs with 19.
Chris Godwin - Had 10 pins removed from his finger, but looked fine with them in there for a couple of weeks. He’s scored between 15-18 FP with 6+ catches in each of his last three games, and the overall matchup is strong.
Antonio Brown - Might come out hot after the bye, since you know he’s worked with Brady the last two weeks. AB has yet to score or hit 70+ yards in a game, but he could do one or both this week. The Vikings are giving up the fourth-most FPG to WRs (42.7) and they also give up the second-most FPG to slot WRs. No LB Kendricks can help him.
Rob Gronkowski - Has 13+ FP in 5 of his last 7 with a couple duds in there. The Vikings gave up 10/86 receiving to Tyler Eifert and James O’Shaughnessy last week and won’t have LB Eric Kendricks, one of the best coverage LBs in the league.
Ronald Jones - He’s in line for some volume and multiple scoring chances in this one with the Bucs favored by 6.5 points against a beatable defense. The Vikings are okay against the run, giving up 4.4 YPC and a solid 100.8 rushing yards per game to RBs, but this is a beatable spot.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
- Dalvin Cook - He’s wearing down a bit (3.7 YPC his last 4) because he’s averaging 31 opportunities a game in his last six, including an unhealthy 38 touches last week with Alexander Mattison (appendectomy) out. He’s out again this week, so the touches will be there for Cook. But I think the Buccaneers will shut him down on the ground. They are allowing league-lows in YPC (3.0) and rushing yards per game (53.5), so Cook will have to do something in the passing game. Good news is they are allowing 6 catches per game to RBs.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- Irv Smith - Kyle Rudolph is doubtful, but Irv is still questionable and was only limited on Friday. That’s too risky. But the Bucs have allowed 8 catches to TEs in each of their last two games if you’re very desperate.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
- Leonard Fournette - He hasn’t hit 11+ FP in five straight with a combined 76 scrimmage yards over his last three games. We have no idea what to expect after the bye other than to expect him to continue to be a dog.
Indianapolis Colts (8-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (7-5)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Jonathan Taylor - Still not getting the snap and touches he should, and he actually had just 3/21 rushing with 8 minutes to go in the fourth quarter last week before he finally got the ball. And then he started popping off big runs. The Raiders got hit hard by the one and only Ty Johnson last week with 117/1, so if Taylor doesn’t get the rock this week, my head will explode.
Philip Rivers - He’s averaging 39.0 attempts/game the last five weeks with 18+ FP in three straight with 285+ passing yards and 2 or more TDs. Keep an eye on LT Anthony Costonzo’s status today to see if he’s active, as he was limited late in the week. If he’s out, the Colts will be down to their third-string LT. But the good news is the Raiders just gave up 23 FP to Sam Darnold of all people last week.
T.Y. Hilton - He’s clearly now on the same page as Rivers and he’s hit 18+ FP in two straight. He’s looking like a nice WR3 this week.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
Darren Waller - He obviously went nuts last week, but he was in a funk with a combined 197 receiving yards in Weeks 7-12 with 37 or fewer yards in 4 of his last 5 heading into last week. We could be back to disappointing, as the Colts have allowed a league-low one TD to TEs and just 4.1 receptions per game to the position.
Josh Jacobs - He’s supposed to play but only limited on Friday and really risky. David Johnson posted 10/44/1 rushing against the Colts last week with DeForest Buckner back in the lineup. This will probably be a week in which the annoying Devontae Booker does something, but I can’t back him at all. I’d like to avoid this backfield with Jalen Richard, and Theo Riddick also lurking.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
None of note.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Michael Pittman - He’s still not getting red zone love and Hilton is taking over lately. Pittman has only 7/74 on 14 targets the last two weeks. It’s a solid matchup, at least, with the Raiders giving up 13.2/169.5/1.2 receiving per game to WRs.
Nyheim Hines - Had 9/32/1 on 33% of the snaps last week and 3+ catches in four straight. Raiders have faced the fourth-most RB targets per game (7.9) and they’re giving up 5.5/43.3/.2 receiving per game to RBs.
Derek Carr - Not easy to trust lately but had a huge game last week in part due to a fluky long TD to Henry Ruggs at the end of the game. The Colts have been shakier against the pass lately and have given up 19+ FP to QBs in three straight and 18+ FP in 5 of their last 6. But it is still potentially a tougher spot for Carr against this zone-base defense.
Nelson Agholor - He has 4+ catches in three straight but he’s not really done much. Brandin Cooks posted 5/65 receiving on eight targets in this matchup last week, but Agholor is no must-start.
Henry Ruggs - He has 3 catches in 3 of his last 4 55+ receiving yards in consecutive games, but keep in mind he did next to nothing before that hail mary play at the end last week. He’s a hail mary play this week only, but at least five different WRs have hit 10+ FP against the Colts in the last two weeks.
New York Jets (0-12) at Seattle Seahawks (8-4)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Russell Wilson - He’s averaging just 16.1 FPG over his last four with 4 TDs but the Jets could be a get-well defense for him. They’re allowed 24+ FP in 4 of their last 5 with 13 passing TDs and 6 TDs on the ground given up to QBs.
D.K. Metcalf - 15/257 on 23 targets his last two games and the Jets are starting backup rookie CBs, so he could crush it. DeVante Parker posted 8/119 receiving on 14 targets in this matchup two weeks ago.
Tyler Lockett - He hasn’t hit 70+ yards in his last six, but the Jets are giving up the third-most receiving yards per game (195.8) and the fifth-most receptions per game (15.0) and the 10th-most FPG to slot WRs.
Chris Carson - Last week in his second game back he played more snaps, had more touches, and gained more yards, and his role may still be growing this week. Carson has scored in six of his seven full games this year. The Jets have allowed just one TD to RBs in their last seven games, but Carson now has more receiving TDs in 2020 (4) than he had in his first three seasons (3).
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
- Denzel Mims - He will miss this week because of a family emergency.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
Breshad Perriman - He’s the clear top option on the outside, and Jamison Crowder is banged up. Perriman had only a 22-yard catch on 4 targets against Las Vegas last week, and the Seahawks haven’t allowed an outside WR to reach double-digit FP in consecutive games. But they are beatable for sure, and Perriman will get opportunities for sure.
Jamison Crowder - Had just 6/73/1 receiving on 10 targets in three full games with both Perriman and Mims on the field, but Mims is out and Crowder had a big game last week. Crowder himself is still questionable, so check his status, but Seattle is still giving up the most FPG to slot receivers on the season.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Sam Darnold - Coming off his best game of the season with 186/2 passing but Seattle’s defense is healthier now and is starting to play more aggressively and a lot better. Over the last weeks, they’re allowing 222.8 passing yards per game with seven passing TDs in that span. So Darnold is still a shaky play.
Frank Gore - Looks like he will go, coming off his concussion, but hard to trust with a tougher matchup and with Ty Johnson looking good last week. Giants Wayne Gallman and Alfred Morris did just get the Seahawks for a combined 24/174/1 rushing.
Green Bay Packers (9- 3) at Detroit Lions (5-7)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Aaron Jones - He dropped 236 yards and 3 TDs in this matchup in Week 2. And he’s due.
Aaron Rodgers - He’s now thrown for three TDs in 6 of his last 7. He had only 240/2 passing against the Lions in Week 2, but that was Aaron Jones’ big game, not the Lions D.
Davante Adams - Ridiculous production lately with a TD in seven straight with 11 TDs in that stretch. The Lions won’t have Jeff Okudah and Desmond Trufant is on IR, so they are screwed against Adams.
Robert Tonyan - He’s looking a tiny bit better with Jace Sternberger out and Tonyon is hot again with a TD and 4+ catches in three straight. He posted 2/25/1 receiving in his first game in this matchup back in Week 2, and the Lions just allowed 5/37/1 receiving to Cole Kmet last week.
T.J. Hockenson - He’s been fantastic with 5/60 on average on 7.7 targets per game the last six weeks. He caught all four of his targets for 62 yards against the Packers in Week 2, and he could be busy if Marvin is contained by Alexander.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
- Marvin Jones - Huge game last week with 8/116/1 on 12 targets, and he’s been very solid while Golladay has been out. But Jones managed just 4/23/1 receiving on six targets in this matchup in Week 2 with Golladay out of the lineup, and he could see a lot of top corner Jaire Alexander, since Marvin is clearly their best WR option.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- Allen Lazard - He’s been viable with 4/23/1 receiving and 3/50 the last two weeks while Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been dropping passes again. Lions won’t have Jeff Okudah and Desmond Trufant is on IR, and they are giving up 194.1 receiving yards (4th-most) and 14.8 catches per game (6th-most) to WRs.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Matthew Stafford - Things are looking up with Matt Patricia gone, and Stafford last week was chucking it down the field. It’s not the greatest matchup and still no Kenny Golladay, but Stafford should have to throw a lot and he did put up a solid 244/2 passing in this matchup back in Week 2.
Danny Amendola - Hard to trust, but Stafford will need him with Alexander possibly containing Marvin.
D’Andre Swift - Set to return and is best viewed as a flex only. It’s a good matchup, of course, as the Packers are giving up 148.4 scrimmage yards to RBs, including breakout games for Jonathan Taylor and David Montgomery recently.
Adrian Peterson - He’s scored 4 TDs in the three games that Swift has missed, but his luck may run out here if GB has a big lead in the second half. That doesn’t mean he can’t pick up a cheap TD at any time, of course.
Atlanta Falcons (4-8) at Los Angeles Chargers (3-9)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
- Calvin Ridley - He’s been fine with and without Julio, so start him even in this tougher matchup. The Chargers contained Stefon Diggs (7/39) in this matchup two weeks ago, and they’re giving up just 145.1 receiving yards per game (4th-fewest).
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
None of note.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Matt Ryan - No Julio means he’s a bad play, period. And he’s been poor with Julio lately, putting up only 13.9 FP last week with Julio. Maybe he throws it 40+ times and get lucky with 2 TDs, but these guys can score TDs via the forward pass.
Hayden Hurst - He’s been erased from existence almost his last three games with fewer than 10 FP total. The Chargers are giving up the second-most TDs per game to TEs, but the eighth-fewest yards per game (42.3). Do you really think Hurst can score? I didn’t think so.
Todd Gurley - Looks like he will go and he did work early in the week, and the Chargers are giving up a generous 138.7 scrimmage yards to RBs. But Ito Smith is lurking and Gurley is a good bet to come up small if he doesn't score.
Justin Herbert - He’s hit that wall finally. He’s at only 6.1 YPA or worse in three of his last four starts, and his TD percentage is way down. The Falcons did dominate Derek Carr in Week 12, so another bad game from Herbert is possible. But I’m ultimately expecting a solid showing from Herbert.
Keenan Allen - He’s fallen under 50 yards in 3 of his last 4 with Herbert struggling. Michael Thomas posted 9/105 receiving in this matchup last week and dominated it two weeks before that.
Mike Williams - He hasn’t hit 10+ FP in the three games out of four but a season-high with 9 targets last week and the Falcons are allowing a generous 14.0 YPR to WRs.
Hunter Henry - Fell flat on his face last week after 13+ FP in Weeks 10-12. Jared Cook got 3/28/1 in this matchup last week, and the Falcons are giving up the second-most TDs per game (.8) and the eighth-most receiving yards per game (56.8) to TEs.
Austin Ekeler - Stonewalled last week for only 68 total yards and the Falcons have been stingy against RBs all season. They do at least give up 5+ per game to RBs. Alvin Kamara posted 97/1 scrimmage in this matchup last week.
New Orleans Saints (10-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-8-1)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Taysom Hill - 18+ FP in each of his first three starts and a career-high 83 rushing yards last week in addition to throwing his first 2 TD passes. The Eagles have had issues against mobile QBs this year against types like Lamar Jackson (108/1 rushing) and Daniel Jones (156/1 in two games) this season.
Michael Thomas - Top CB Darius Slay (knee) should play and work on Thomas a lot, but I’m not that worried about Slay on Thomas, who has seen a 37% target share with Hill with 22/259 receiving on 29 targets. Davante Adams posted 10/121/2 receiving in this matchup last week.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
- Dallas Goedert - He was more involved than Zach Ertz last week but still, Ertz was running routes and he did get targets, which isn’t great for Goedert. But he has now posted 5+ catches and 65+ yards in three straight - of course with Wentz. The Saints have been stingy to TEs recently, as Malcolm Jenkins has been a lot better.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- Jalen Hurts - He posted 5/29 rushing in just 22 minutes last week, so we’re looking at 10+ carries and we could see 15+ and he also threw for 109 yards with 1 TD last week. He doesn't have to do much more passing to come through if he runs, and he will run. He will have to run because the matchup is tough. The Saints haven’t allowed multiple passes in a game since Week 8.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Alvin Kamara - Best game with Hill last week with 17/87/1, but still only 8% target share with Hill after seeing a 26% target share with Brees. Aaron Jones posted 18/148/1 scrimmage against the Eagles last week, but most of it was a late 77-yard run.
Latavius Murray - Only seven touches for 19 yards last week after putting up 34/211/2 total in his first two games with Hill. The Eagles are allowing 3.7 YPC to RBs this season, but when they go on the road they tend to use Murray a little more.
Jared Cook - He can still score TDs with Hill in, as we saw with 3/28/1 on 5 targets last week. Robert Tonyan posted 4/39/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
Eagles WRs - This is an avoid situation with Hurts in. Jalen Reagor (71% snap share) is the best option, and really the only option with Greg Ward (71%), Alshon Jeffery (58%), Travis Fulgham (40%), and John Hightower (29%) are seeing the field. The Saints have been stingy against WRs.
Miles Sanders - Pitiful 57% of the snaps last week and this is the toughest matchup in the league. Don’t go out of your way to use him, but this is the type of spot a guy like him gets it done; when it’s not expected against a good defense. Most need to start him and hope for the best.
Washington Football Team (5-7) vs. San Francisco 49ers (5-7)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Terry McLaurin - Steelers took him out last week, but Stefon Diggs caught all 10 of his targets for 92 yards in this matchup last week and CB Mosely is doubtful, so they can move Terry around to avoid Richard Sherman.
Brandon Aiyuk - Didn’t miss a beat after 2 missed games on the Covid list and he now has 5+ catches for 75+ yards, and 17+ FP in four straight with 3 TDs. TFT has given up 10 TDs to WRs, including scores to Diontae Johnson and James Washington last week, and you cannot sit this dude right now.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Alex Smith - He’s got just 4 TD passes in his five games without a multi-TD game. The 49ers have allowed 4 TD passes in 3 of their last 4 games, and they do have some CB injuries with Emmanual Mosely doubtful, so Smith may actually get 2 TD passes.
Logan Thomas - He looked beastly last week, putting up 9/98/1 on 9 targets, and he now has 10+ FP in 3 of his last 4, but it’s the toughest matchup for TEs, so we can’t expect a big game.
Peyton Barber - He’s a good bet for 10+ touches at least and he’s not a zero in the passing game and is their goal-line back. He’s a threat to post 10+ FP, but he’ll need a TD for that. The 49ers have allowed six rushing TDs.
J.D. McKissic - He will keep the same role he’s had with Antonio Gibson in the lineup, with perhaps a few more chances than usual. But this doesn't look like a great week to try him out against a solid D and a team that may not be able to build a big lead. They are 3-point underdogs, at least.
Raheem Mostert - Limited to only 44% of the snaps and 9/42, perhaps they eased him back in his first game back in a while last week. But he’s still not easy to trust unless you’re in a pinch or desperate with Jeff Wilson well in the mix and running hard.
Jeff Wilson - He led the way last week with a 46% snap share and 9/59 scrimmage, and he ran hard. But he’s still a desperation play only.
Nick Mullens - Mullens has struggled with his decision making under pressure this year, and TFT has a good pass rush. Mullens has thrown five INTs while averaging just 4.9 YPA when under pressure, so I’d pass on him in all formats.
Deebo Samuel - Wasn’t involved until late last week but somehow still got 6/73 on 9 targets. He now has 5+ catches and 65+ yards in four straight, so he’s solid as usual. The matchup could be better, though, as TFT is giving up just 12.5 catches/game to WRs.
Jordan Reed - Got a garbage time TD last week and has 10/112/1 on 16 targets his last three games. It’s a medium matchup, but it’s also a major revenge game!
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-1) at Buffalo Bills (9-3)
CB Joe Haden (concussion), LB Robert Spillane (knee), WR Chase Claypool (illness)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
James Conner - He is back and they really need him. The Bills are allowing a generous 4.6 YPC and can be run on. It looks like C Maurkice Pouncey is back this week, as well.
Diontae Johnson - He may get benched if he keeps dropping passes, but for now you have to start him given his high target numbers every week. He does have a league-high 10 drops, so perhaps they’re throwing to him too much. But the man is averaging 13 targets and 8.5/86.5 receiving per game in his last four.
Eric Ebron - He’s been consistent with 11+ FP in 6 of his last 7, but also some drops. The Bills have given up solid games to Jordan Reed (3/32/1 receiving) and Hunter Henry (7/67) in the last two weeks, so Ebron looks like a solid start.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Ben Roethlisberger - He’s averaging an insane 50 attempts/game his last three games, but it’s all short stuff. Still, this could be a shootout and the Bills have allowed 6 different QBs to throw for 300+ yards this season, including 3 in their last 4 games (Mullens/Herbert/Russell).
Chase Claypool - Saw a drop in snaps and targets with James Washington playing more. He had a 3-month low with a 44% snap share with only 2/38 receiving on 4 targets. Brandon Aiyuk posted 5/95/1 receiving in this matchup last week, at least. He may see some Tre White on the outside, as well.
JuJu Smith-Schuster - He’s got 15 but for only 65 yards and a TD the last two weeks. He does get the best matchup this week away from Tre’Davious White in the slot, at least, and the Bills have been shaky inside all year.
Josh Allen - Coming off his best game ever, Allen has 29+ FP in 3 of his last 4, but this is a tough matchup against a Steelers defense that’s yet to allow 20+ FP to a QB. However, they will be down their top outside CB in Joe Haden, which helps.
Stefon Diggs - He has 10+ FP in every game but just 1 TD since Week 6. this season. The Steelers limited Terry McLaurin to just 2/14 receiving last week, but no Joe Haden helps.
Cole Beasley - He has 105+ receiving yards and 9+ catches in 3 of his last 6 with three or fewer catches and fewer than 40 yards in his other three games, so he’s been volatile. This could be another down game vs. solid slot corner Mike Hilton.
Gabriel Davis - He has 15+ FP the last two weeks with John Brown out, and unheralded Cam Sims had a big game in this matchup last week.
Devin Singletary - He looked good and had a big 62-11 advantage in snaps last week after Zack Moss fumbled early at his own goal line. Singletary has 11+ FP his last two games, but the Steelers are giving up just 101.9 scrimmage yards per game to RBs, so he’s more of a desperation play still. Moss’ bad day last week does help with Singletary.
