Welcome to the IDP Weekend Preview. Each week we’ll take a close look at each matchup based on a number of factors, such as roles, where offenses are giving up FP, snap counts, and tackle crews.
Mia @ NYJ
Christian Wilkins is back this week and he, Shaq Lawson, and Emmanuel Ogbah have a good matchup against “everyone but Mekhi Becton.” Just like New England, I’m avoiding the Miami LBs, and that’s rarely been a mistake. The Jets don’t produce enough on offense to be viable for these LBs, and really not much for DBs as well. NYJ produces the second-fewest tackles per game to DBs (12.9). It looks like Sam Darnold is back though, so there is some nice INT upside.
Quinnen Williams has been effective on a busy defense. He had 5 tackles and a PD a few weeks ago against Miami. Harvey Langi has settled in nicely as the team’s defensive play-caller. He posted 11 tackles (8 solo) last week, and now has 15-4 in his last two games. Neville Hewitt also had 11 tackles and has been a steady option all season. With Patrick Onwuasor (hamstring) Out and Blake Cashman (hamstrings) Questionable, Langi and Hewitt should be starting again. Rookie safety Ashtyn Davis came out of the bye with 12 tackles (8 solo) and a fumble recovery. Let’s see if that continues before loading him up into our lineups, but I like that it was timed as a post-bye move.
Ari @ NE
Keep rolling out Haason Reddick. In Week 11, he had 100% usage. NE is 9th in FPG to DLs, thanks to slightly above average production across the board. This week we get to see if the Isaiah Simmons train will stay on track, or if a healthier De’Vondre Campbell derails the rookie’s chance of helping us in the playoffs. We’re using Budda Baker regardless of the matchup, but New England happens to be a top-10 opponent for DB production.
After two strong games, Chase Winovich had just 2 assists last week, but he did play 87%. That’s three weeks in a row of solid usage. Again, we had some run-stuffing DTs post solid tackles: Lawrence Guy (5 tackles) and Byron Cowart (4 tackles). Arizona’s Air Raid offense produces a below-average amount of DL tackles, though. These DLs are largely responsible for limiting the LB production, but it would help if at least one of them played every down. So far, that’s not happening. That’s partly due to how much the team relies on Adrian Phillips and now Kyle Dugger to play in the box. Arizona does produce over 28 tackles to DBs, so there’s a fair amount of expected production for the Patriots secondary.
Car @ Min
Brian Burns notched his 6th sack of the year in Week 11 and his first multiple sack outing of 2020. Efe Obada has also been coming on as a rusher. He plays on passing downs (around 40%) so his tackle floor is low, but in big play leagues, he’s a nice DL3/DL4. Jeremy Chinn has had two slow games in a row. Bad luck? Juston Burris returning? I think it’s just bad luck. His bye week is Week 13, so it’s now or never for Chinn to make it on our playoff rosters. Tahir Whitehead was only active for emergency usage last week, so Jermaine Carter got the start. However, Whitehead is on track to be more active this week.
It was Jaleel Johnson and Jalyn Holmes who soaked up all the production on the D-line last week, leaving Ifeadi Odenigbo and rising talent D.J. Wonnum empty-handed. That also didn’t leave much for Eric Kendricks (7 tackles) and Eric Wilson (5 tackles), but the Panthers should be a better matchup for these LBs. Harrison Smith (8 tackles) and Anthony Harris (7 tackles) had good games last week, but Carolina is bottom-10 for DB scoring. They produce a decent number of tackles but not much else.
Cle @ Jax
Myles Garrett will miss his 2nd straight game as he quarantines following a positive Covid-19 test. We got massive production from this Cleveland D-line last week, but Jax is actually a poor matchup. Their anemic offense just doesn’t produce many tackles and their O-line gives up just 1 sack per game. However, Jax is down a starting O-lineman, so the sledding should be a little easier. B.J. Goodson - with his mediocre snap count and production - is still the only LB to start here. Ronnie Harrison left last week’s game early with a bruised knee but has declared himself “100%” and ready to face the team that traded him away. They’ll need him, as the secondary will be without Denzel Ward and Sheldrick Redwine.
With Josh Allen on IR, it’s all up to K’Lavon Chaisson to get some sort of pass rush going against a good O-line. People are getting worried about Myles Jack - he had just 5 tackles last week - but he had 8 the week before and 11 before that, plus he’s always good for a few TFL, PD, FF, etc. Cleveland’s dual backs produce an above-average amount of LB tackles, so I like Jack and Joe Schobert in this matchup. With Daniel Thomas going on IR, it’s likely Andrew Wingard (or possibly Doug Middleton) who moves into Josh Jones’ vacated role. Whoever it is will get picked on.
Ten @ Ind
Indy’s O-line gives up less than a sack per game, so this could be a tough week for Harold Landry and Jeffery Simmons. Jadeveon Clowney is on IR, so he can’t help them. Speaking of IR, Jayon Brown (dislocated/fractured elbow) was sent to IR. Will Compton will start next to Rashaan Evans. The Colts give up 30.3 tackles per game to DBs, which is 5th-most, so Kevin Byard, Kenny Vaccaro and Co. should see tons of action.
Ian Rapaport said that DeForest Buckner received a positive COVID test, so he’s out this week, as is Denico Autry. That will result in more snaps for Grover Stewart, Tyquan Lewis, and Al-Quadin Muhammad. Buckner is usually an 80-90% usage guy, while those guys are 50-60%. Darius Leonard had another solid game: 6 tackles (4 solo), a PD, and a FR. But we expect more than “solid” from Leonard. Let’s see if his elite speed can get him involved against Derrick Henry. With Bobby Okereke Out and Anthony Walker Questionable, Leonard will be busy. Khari Willis (Questionable) sat out earlier this week with rib and shoulder injuries but returned to practice on Friday.
NYG @ Cin
The Bengals O-line gives up top-5 scoring to DLs, so fire up your Leonard Williams, Dexter Lawrence, and Dalvin Tomlinson shares. It’s also a good matchup for Blake Martinez, but Cincy’s stat crew likes assists more than solos, so prepare accordingly. Although rookie safety Xavier McKinney might return this week, it shouldn’t hurt the value of Logan Ryan or Jabrill Peppers. In fact, it might help it. The Giants secondary could be in for some big plays without Joe Burrow under center.
Sam Hubbard had 4 tackles on 82%. That’s what we need to see him do going forward, and not fall into the pit of the messy Cincy rotation. He was an 80-90% player last year. Germaine Pratt and these Bengals LBs are just unusable for anything more than an LB4. There is no clear rotation anymore (there almost was for a week or two, but then of course that went away). Due to the 642 LBs they involve at almost random intervals, three-safety schemes are at a minimum. Shawn Williams did not play a single snap & Brandon Wilson had just 9 snaps last week. It’s all Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates.
LAC @ Buf
Joey Bosa returned last week and took 90% snaps but only produced two assists. However, he did have 5 QB hits, which is a big number. That usually results in 2-3 sacks. He had a strip-sack and a TFL called back on separate plays because of penalties. Cameron Jordan had 2 duds in a row, then had 3 sacks last week. Also, O-lineman Cody Ford is out for the season now, so the Bills will be short-handed on their O-line. Look for Jerry Tillery and Isaac Rochell to fire off the other side, as Melvin Ingram was placed on IR. It looks like a tough week for Kenneth Murray, as the Bills produce just 17.9 tackles per game to LBs, which is basically the league-worst. Also, keep in mind that Kyzir White hasn’t been productive since Jahleel Addae started taking some of his snaps. The Bills do create production for DBs, though, so it should be a busy game for Rayshawn Jenkins and the secondary.
A.J. Klein saw an increase in snaps (92%) in Week 10 and led the team with 11 tackles. He and Tremaine Edmunds should be in for a good day, as the Chargers create the 2nd-most tackles for LBs (26.1). The Chargers are also good for DLs, so Ed Oliver, Jerry Hughes, and Trent Murphy should be busy. As always, we’re starting Jordan Poyer, but I’d consider Tre’Davious White, Micah Hyde, and Taron Johnson this week.
LV @ Atl
Clelin Ferrell was activated off the COVID/Reserve list, so he and Maxx Crosby will hope to duplicate Cameron Jordan’s 3-sack game against these Falcons last week. Cory Littleton should also return, but in what capacity? Likely at the expense of some Nicholas Morrow snaps, so I’m still running with Nick Kwiatkoski and waiting to see if Littleton takes over for Morrow. Jonathan Abram finally had a big game again (10 tackles). Had 5 solos and 2 QB hits the week before, so I like him against this pass-heavy attack.
Dante Fowler is Questionable this week, but Grady Jarrett is poised for a lot of action against the run-first Raiders. Deion Jones and Foyesade Oluokun had mediocre production last week, and that’s likely what they’re in for this game. The Raiders are a below-average opponent for LB production. Keanu Neal has been matchup-proof and should see a lot of Darren Waller, so it’s a good week for Neal, and likely for A.J. Terrell as well.
SF @ LAR
A team ravaged with injuries and COVID issues, it’s a little hard to tell as of this writing who will be available this Sunday. DT Javon Kinlaw might be back, and he’ll join Arik Armstead and Kerry Hyder. Armstead and Hyder should get cracks at a 3rd-string LT for the Rams, so there’s some big-play upside here. Dre Greenlaw led the team in tackles with 11 back in Week 10, while Fred Warner had a slow game - 5 tackles (all assists). But Greenlaw has an illness, and if he doesn’t play, some of the backup LBs like Joe Walker are on the COVID list, and might also not be available. If none of these LBs can go, it might be Marcel Harris who gets the start, as he’s their new dime LB. Richard Sherman should be back this week.
Will Aaron Donald finally get some production? He’s in the midst of an epic dry spell, so let’s hope he turns that around this week. Although the 49ers don’t produce many DL tackles, they do give up 1.5 sacks per game. Micah Kiser (knee) was placed on IR so Troy Reeder will start for Kiser at ILB. Reeder had 11 tackles and 3 sacks in Week 5 for Kiser. The 49ers are a top-10 team for opposing DB production, so John Johnson and Jordan Fuller should be busy. SF’s home crew is below average while the Rams home crew is 3rd-best for tackles. Expect more solos in this game for the 49ers IDPs.
NO @ Den
Can Cameron Jordan repeat his 3-sack performance from last week? Congratulations to those who stuck it out through Cam’s duds. Denver produces a low amount of tackles to DLs (11.2 PG) and a little less than a sack per game, so this is a tough matchup on paper for Jordan and Marcus Davenport. Demario Davis had another sack (he’s been rushing the passer a lot more this season) and remains the viable LB for fantasy here. Kwon Alexander (74%) looked good out there but doesn’t have much fantasy value at the moment. The Broncos create the most FPG for DBs in the league, so it should be a good week for Malcolm Jenkins and the Saints secondary.
Malik Reed (85%) had another strong game in Week 11: 6 tackles and 2 sacks. This is a tough matchup though. The Saints give up fewer than one sack per game. The Saints have been the best option for LBs this season but last week vs. Taysom Hill, Deion Jones and Foyesade Oluokun just had OK games. I’m still betting on Alexander Johnson though. It’s doubtful that Hill has completely killed the Saints value for LB tackles. It should also be another solid week for Justin Simmons.
KC @ TB
With Tampa Bay dealing with injuries on the O-line, this could be a fruitful game for Chris Jones and Frank Clark. Tampa Bay’s O-line had been stingy to DLs. The Buccaneers have also been stingy to LBs, and with the unpredictability of the KC rotation, this looks like a situation to avoid. Daniel Sorensen (100%) started over Juan Thornhill (19%), and posted 4 tackles (3 solo), an INT, and a & PD. Sorensen played a more traditional 2-safety role, splitting time between deep safety and box safety. He played deep more than he has all season, which takes him out of his hybrid LB role. Thornhill is now being used as the 3rd safety in Nickel/Dime, but hopefully for Sorensen’s fantasy value, TB will play enough 11 and empty personnel to have Sorensen near the action.
While Kansas City produces an average amount of tackles to DLs, they’re incredibly stingy when it comes to sacks. Still, Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaq Barrett can do damage against anyone. KC is death to LB production, producing a league-worst 17.6 tackles per game to LBs. To add insult to injury, Tampa’s stat crew used to be a perennial top-5 unit. Now they give out more assists than solos by a large margin. I’m still starting Lavonte David and Devin White, as they’re elite players and will still put up production, but it’s not their fault if they post 5-6 tackles each. Also, next week is their bye if you are in a shallow league and could pivot to a better option this week. The Bucs have been generous to DBs, though, both in tackles and in Tom Brady’s newfound love of throwing picks.
Chi @ GB
Akiem Hicks went down with a hamstring injury in Week 10 and is Questionable for this week. Without him, the Bears D suffers, including Khalil Mack. The Packers give up a ton of DB production, so look for some CBs to put up tackles. I love Eddie Jackson (he’s cleared to return) and Kyle Fuller for tackles, just remember that Aaron Rodgers doesn’t throw many INTs. With so much production traveling over them through the air, LBs tend to struggle to produce. This might be a slow game for Roquan Smith and Danny Trevathan.
With Mitch Trubisky in line to start, this could create big plays a go-go for the Packers. Chicago gives up 14 tackles and 1.5 sacks per game to DLs, so start Kenny Clark and possibly Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith. Christian Kirksey remains the man in the middle, but Chicago’s 17.7 tackles per game to LBs means he may see lowered tackle opportunities. The Bears are also generous to DBs, so Adrian Amos, Raven Greene, Darnell Savage, and Chandon Sullivan are good plays.
Sea @ Phi
Carlos Dunlap is everything Seattle expected and more. He posted 2-2-2 with 2 TFL and 3 QB hits in Week 11 and has a phenomenal matchup this week. The Eagles average almost 3 sacks per game to DLs. Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright should see a slight boost in solos this week, as Philly’s stat crew gives out about 15-20 more solos per game than Seattle. Jamal Adams should also do well as a pass-rusher, and could see more action in coverage as the Eagles will try to get Dallas Goedert involved. Shaquill Griffin (hamstring) is limited and may take over his perimeter corner job from D.J. Reed. Reed has been massively productive in Griffin’s stead and may end up keeping the job. But of course this game is Monday, so we may not know this situation in time.
Bal @ Pit
Calais Campbell, Brandon Williams, and Pernell McPhee are all on the COVID/Reserve list and are unlikely to play if this game happens on Tuesday. The clean looks that Patrick Queen has enjoyed in the past might be tough to get this week as well due to these guys being out. It’s all on Derek Wolfe, Matthew Judon, and Yannick Ngakoue (who’s been a bust so far). There should be lots of DB production, though, so start Chuck Clark, Marlon Humphrey, and maybe even DeShon Elliott in deep leagues.
Baltimore’s O-line was already susceptible to sacks when it was fully healthy and had Lamar Jackson back there. Now they’ll be even more vulnerable, so start Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt. Avery Williamson (14%) is nothing more than depth and insurance, as Robert Spillane (84%) and Vince Williams (81%) have remained the starters. Terrell Edmunds has seen his production pick back up once Mike Hilton returned. Hilton hasn’t been playing the same snaps as before, though. Will he pick those back up? Can Minkah Fitzpatrick keep his production up? Will they even play this game??
