Houston Texans (2-6) at Cleveland Browns (5-3)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Deshaun Watson - Weather won’t be great, but it might not be prohibitive and he’s at 24+ FP in his last four games. The Browns are allowing 281.8 passing yards per game and 2.1 passing TDs per game and are vulnerable to big plays. If the wind is a problem, hopefully he runs a little more.
Will Fuller - A TD in six straight games, his target share isn’t great, so he may need to score to come through. Browns are allowing 1.5 receiving TDs per game to WRs (5th-most), so that’s good, and they are vulnerable to big plays in the passing game.
Brandin Cooks - Has 60+ receiving yards, 9+ targets, and 13+ FP in four straight, Browns are allowing the fourth-most targets per game to WRs (23.1) and 1.5 receiving TDs per game to WRs (5th-most), and they are vulnerable to big plays in the passing game.
Duke Johnson - Was an RB1 last week with 16/41/1 rushing and 4/32 receiving and David Johnson is on IR with his concussion. Browns have allowed 95+ scrimmage yards to individual backs in three straight games and have the 10th-worst success percentage allowed to RBs, per SIS.
Nick Chubb - He’s back this week and the Texans have had arguably the league’s worst run defense all year. They are giving up a league-high 144.9 rushing yards per game to RBs and the third-most FP per carry, per SIS. Chubb could easily drop 100+ rushing yards with the weather looking shaky for passing. Them getting G Wyatt Teller is good news for their run game.
Jarvis Landry - Season-high 44% of the targets (11) in his first game without Odell Beckham in Week 8, and since he’ll be in the slot about half the time, he won’t see a ton of top corner Bradley Roby, so I like Jarvis’ chances this week even in bad weather.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
- Rashard Higgins - He just a 14-yard catch in ugly conditions in his first game starting in Week 8, and he will see a lot of Bradley Roby, so l’d look elsewhere for a reach WR.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- Randall Cobb - Only 3/21 on 3 targets last week, but was at 10+ FP in three straight before that and the Browns are still allowing the fourth-most points per game to slot receivers, per SIS.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Kareem Hunt - Will go back to being a change-of-pace back and main receiving back but worth using against Houston, who is giving up a league-high 144.9 rushing yards per game to RBs and the third-most FP per carry, per SIS.
Baker Mayfield - Coming off the bye, but the weather doesn’t look great and his margin for error is small. It’s possible they run all over the Texans as home favorites and Baker does little. But unheralded rookie Jake Luton did throw for 300+ yards last week against the Texans, and Houston has now allowed 20+ FP to QBs in four straight games, so if the weather isn’t nasty, Baker could do something of note.
Austin Hooper - He had 10+ FP in three straight games before his appendectomy and the Texans are allowing the eighth-most FPG to QBs (15.0) and gave up a good game to Tyler Eifert of all people with 4/48 last week, but he has competition for targets from Harrison Bryant and David Njoku, so he’s hardly a lock. I do think he’ll be the clear top guy, at least.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) at Carolina Panthers (3-6)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Tom Brady - Brady faced an unusually high amount of pressure last week, and G Ali Marpet is out again, but I’m still expecting a big bounce back. Rob Gronkowski dropped a TD pass he will atone for and Mike Evans got this defense for 100+ and a TD in Week 2 against the Panthers. Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown give Brady too many weapons to pick apart their zone coverage.
Mike Evans - Led Bucs with 4/64 last week on 6 with 86% of the snaps. HC Bruce Arians called Brady out last week for not throwing to Evans more. Evans put up 100+ with a TD in Week 2 and usually does well against zone, which the Panthers run a lot. They also give up the most FP/game to outside WRs on the season, per SIS.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
None of note.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Ronald Jones - Has seen his two lowest snap shares the last two weeks at 24% and 32% with only 10/32 rushing and 7/32 receiving the last two weeks. He’s tough to predict but the Panthers are allowing 144.0 total yards per game and 7 grabs a game to RBs and the fifth-most yards after contact, per SIS. He could easily come through but he’ll likely have to score.
Leonard Fournette - Has 16/52 rushing and 9/60 receiving the last two weeks, which is better than Jones. The Panthers are allowing 144.0 scrimmage yards per game and 7.0 receptions per game to RBs and the fifth-most yards after contact to RBs.
Chris Godwin - Only 3/41 on 6 targets last week, but did lead WRs with a 94% snap share despite his finger injury. Tyreek Hill posted 9/113/2 receiving last week against the Panthers as the team’s primary slot receiver, so Godwin certainly has a chance.
Antonio Brown - Played 78% of the snaps with 3/31 receiving on 5 targets, so hardly a must-start. Mecole Hardman posted 4/38 receiving in this matchup last week.
Rob Gronkowski - Dropped that TD last week and only 1/2 on 6 targets with reduced 19 routes with AB in the mix. Of course, his usage may have been down in a blowout loss and Travis Kelce posted 10/159 receiving on 12 targets in this matchup last week.
Mike Davis - He’s back in the saddle as the primary back and had 8/74 receiving filling in mid-game for an injured McCaffrey the last time these teams met in Week 2. The Bucs have slipped a little on defense, but they’re still a tough matchup on the ground
Teddy Bridgewater - Season-high 36 completions last week and threw for a season-high 367 yards (8.7 YPA) against the Buccaneers in Week 2, but 0 TDs and three turnovers, but I’d expect his numbers to be solid by game’s end, perhaps thanks to garbage time.
D.J. Moore - Has been way less relevant with Curtis Samuel getting opportunities all over the place, but he did have season-highs in targets (13), catches (8), and receiving yards (120) the last time these teams met in Week 2. He is due, but it’s a tougher matchup unless CB Carlton Davis is out.
Curtis Samuel - They love him and he’s being used all over the place and his role is still expanding. He has 17+ FP in three straight and not CMC helps his touch total, so he’s a solid WR3 right now.
Robby Anderson - He’s still the guy with 8+ targets the last three weeks even with Samuel emerging. Robby had 9/109 receiving on 10 targets against the Buccaneers in Week 2. He’d be helped by Carlton Davis being out, if he in fact is out.
Washington Football Team (2-6) at Detroit Lions (3-5)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Terry McLaurin - The guy’s a machine and had his third straight game with 7 grabs last week. Smith and McLaurin connected on 5-of-6 for 87 yards last week. The Lions are giving up the 13th-fewest FPG to WRs (35.8) but they play a lot of man to man, which McLaurin can crush.
Antonio Gibson - Over 60+ yards only once in his last four and they are 4-point road underdogs, which is not good for him with JD McKissic getting more work in passing situations. However, the Lions are giving up the most FPG to RB (35.0) and the second-most rushing yards per game to RBs (134.9), and the fourth-most FP per game to RBs for rushing only.
J.D. McKissic - 36% target share last week with QB Smith and McKissic has 6+ catches in four of his last five games. Lions are worse to RBs on the ground, but TFT is a 4-point road dog, so JDM should be good for 5+ catches again.
T.J. Hockenson - Added to the injury report Thursday but did work Friday. Impossible to sit if he goes, since he’s had 50+ receiving yards and/or a TD in every game. Evan Engram had 5/48/1 on 10 targets in this good TE matchup last week.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
Marvin Jones - He’s back with 13+ FP in three straight with 3 TDs his last two games. But TFT is allowing the fewest FPG (25.8) and the second-fewest TDs per game to WRs (.4), so Marvin is no must-start.
Danny Amendola - He has 10/131 receiving on 14 targets the last two weeks and I loved him last week. I do not this week, though. TFT is allowing the fewest catches per game to WRs (10.0) and the third-fewest FPG to slot receivers.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
None of note.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Alex Smith - Completed 24/32 passes for 325/1 off the bench last week, but with 3 INTs. Lions don’t rush the passer well and are certainly beatable, but teams have been running on them with a lot of success, so they don’t give up a lot in the passing game.
Logan Thomas - Only 3/28 on 6 targets last week, but TE Irv Smith scored 2 TDs against the Lions last week.
Matthew Stafford - No Kenny Golladay again and he’s thrown for multiple TDs just once in his last four and TFT has given up 1 or fewer TD passes in three straight games.
D’Andre Swift - He’s out-snapped (48% to 29%) and out-carried (42 to 39) Adrian Peterson since their Week 6. It’s a tougher matchup with TFT giving up only 3/4/18.4 receiving per game to RBs and all the rushing data shows them as being well-above-average against RBs. But he is due for a TD, IMO.
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7) at Green Bay Packers (6-2)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
DJ Chark - He was the guy last week, finally, with 12 targets and 53% air yards share, which got him 7/146/1 receiving. He lucked out with Bradley Roby out last week and looks to luck out again with Jaire Alexander doubtful. He’s a must-start if Alexander is out and a possible sit if he’s surprisingly in.
Aaron Jones - Jaguars allowing 143.1 scrimmage yards per game and 1.3 TDs and the eight-most FP/carry, so he’s looking good.
Aaron Rodgers - 3+ TDs in 6 of 8 games this year with 280+ passing yards and 3+ TDs in three straight games. The Jaguars defense isn’t a joke, but they have allowed 24+ FP to QBs in five of their eight games.
Davante Adams - He’s averaging an insane 32.4 FPG in his five full games and Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks combined for 8/183/2 receiving against the Jags last week.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
- Keelan Cole - This is just an experiment. After getting just 2/18 receiving on four targets in his last two games, he can’t be used. But that’s usually when he does something, so he probably will do something. But don’t use him. Got it?
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
Chris Conley - Actually caught 7-of-8 targets from Luton for 52 yards last week, and Keelan Cole did nothing last week. No Laviska Shenault helps if you’re looking for a longshot play.
Allen Lazard - Good bet to return and posted 18+ FP in two of his first three games he’s played this year and they may need him and Marquez Valdez-Scantling a little more with Robert Tonyan banged up.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Jake Luton - Solid debut with some key plays made and 304/1 passing with a rushing TD against the Texans. The Packers have held four QBs under 15 FP in their last five games, though. It does help that their shutdown corner Jaire Alexander is doubtful.
James Robinson - Averaging 19.9 touches per game 100+ total yards per game. The Packers have allowed 15+ FP to an individual back in six straight games and they allow the fourth-most FP/carry to RBs.
Robert Tonyan - He’s at six or fewer FP in three of his last four and iffy to play with a knee injury. Jace Sternberger has played 27% of the snaps and would be a viable reach if Tonyan is out. The Jaguars are giving up the fifth-most FPG to TEs (15.6).
Philadelphia Eagles (3-4-1) at New York Giants (2-7)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Miles Sanders - Claims he’s 100%, and he, Boston Scott, and company turned 20 touches into 126/1 scrimmage against the Giants in Week 7.
Evan Engram - He’s coming on strong with 9+ targets and 5+ catches in his last three and they are using him down the field more. He dropped a potential game-winning pass late in Week 7 or else his solid 6/46 receiving on nine targets would have been more like 7/60-70. The weather isn’t great, tho, with rain in the forecast.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
- Darius Slayton - Has only 8/88 receiving on 13 targets the last three games with Egram and Shepard getting a ton of action and he will see a lot of Darius Slay, who limited him to just 2/23 against in Week 7.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- Daniel Jones - He 5 TD passes in his last three with Sterling Shepard back and posted 187/2 passing and rushing yards against the Eagles in Week 7 and should have more. Plus, he tripped on what should have been a 90-yard TD run and will be a factor with his legs in this one, the rain may help that cause. Wind doesn't look too bad, at least.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Carson Wentz - He was pretty bad Week 8 against the Cowboys with four turnovers, and he wasn’t great against the Giants in Week 7, but he did post-season-highs in passing yards (359) and in YPA (8.3). Only two QBs have hit 20+ FP against this solid D, but they are certainly beatable and his supporting cast will be in the best shape it’s been since September.
Travis Fulgham - He’s the WR5 Week 4 but he will see a lot of tough corner James Bradberry. That was the case Week 7 in that matchup and he did get a solid 5/73 receiving on 11 targets.
Jalen Reagor - Put up 3/16/1 on 6 targets in Week 8, a 21.4% target share, but he’s not easy to trust until he strings together some plays and a solid game or two. Basically, he just scored in his last game. Alshon Jeffery should return and could take away a look or two as well.
Dallas Goedert - Was blocking a little more in their last game and just a 15-yard catch in his first game back from an ankle injury in Week 8, but he did run a route on 76% of Wentz’s dropbacks and deep backup Richard Rodgers put up a promising 6/85 receiving on eight targets in this matchup in Week 7.
Sterling Shepard - He’s been Jones’ #1 receiver with 6+ catches and 8+ targets in three straight with a 24% target share in each of those games. He posted 6/59/1 receiving against the Eagles in Week 7 and is certainly worth a shot if you need him.
Wayne Gallman - He’s been a little lucky with TDs, but he’s getting it done and has three straight games of 13+ FP. Gallman posted 10/34/1 rushing and 5/20 receiving against the Eagles in Week 7 with Devonta Freeman leaving early in the second half, and Freeman is out. Gallman’s luck may run out in this tougher matchup, since his role in the passing game has been minimal lately, but he’s certainly viable.
Buffalo Bills (7-2) at Arizona Cardinals (5-3)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Josh Allen - Looked great on film last week and Tua Tagovailoa threw for 248/2 with 35 rushing yards against the Cards last week. The week before, Russell Wilson posted 388/3 and 6/84 rushing against Arizona. The Cards play a lot of man, which is good for Allen’s passing and rushing.
Kyler Murray - Kyler the Compiler continues to add to his impressive totals and the Bills have allowed 19+ FP in 7 of 8 games this season, including 26.1 FP to Russell Wilson last week. They’ve also allowed four rushing TDs to QBs this season.
Christian Kirk - He’s at 20+ FP in three straight and he should see less of White than Nuk, giving him a good chance with two starting CBs down for the Bills (Wallace and Norman). Secondary perimeter WR David Moore posted 4/71/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- John Brown - Looked healthy last week and had season-highs in catches (8), targets (11), and yards (99) against the Seahawks. The Cards play a lot of man to man, so they may look to take some shots deep to Brown.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Stefon Diggs - He will not see Patrick Peterson all day, but he will often. Diggs has 6+ catches in 8 of 9 and Peterson and company have limited #1 WRs in their last two (DeVante Parker (6/64 and D.K. Metcalf just 2/23 and the Cards are getting some veteran DBs back like Dre Kirkpatrick. Still, you’re sitting Diggs in season-long.
Cole Beasley - He now has just five targets for 5/63 total ver his last two. Tyler Lockett did explode for 15/200/3 receiving out of the slot in this matchup in Week 7, but Beasley’s no Lockett.
Zack Moss - His snap rate has risen for four straight weeks and he out-touched Devin Singletary (11 to 5) for the first time last week. Cardinals are allowing 23.1/99.4/.5 rushing per game and 4.8/43.0/.4 receiving per game to RBs, but overall they can be stingy to RBs.
DeAndre Hopkins - Season-low 3 targets last week and now has 3 or fewer catches in 2 of his last 3. While top Tre’Davious White is dealing with an ankle and won’t travel, D-Hop will see a lof of them. He did post 6/90 receiving on eight targets against White last year, though.
Chase Edmonds - Played on 95.6% of the snaps last week and got 93% of the backfield touches, but he kinda flopped with nearly 30 carries and now Kenyan Drake may return. Edmonds has 3+ catches in 6 of his 8 games, though, and the Bills are allowing 101.4 rushing yards per game and 4.0/34.9 receiving per game, so he’s a decent flex.
Kenyan Drake - He’s been trending toward returning this week but is a GTD. He’s a boom or bust option but he did have 3+ carries in every game before missing last week and the Bills can be run on and allow the seventh-most FPG to RBs in the rushing game only, and the allow the 10th-most FP per carry to RBs, per SIS.
Denver Broncos (3-5) at Las Vegas Raiders (5-3)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Derek Carr - Need to throw it more with just 276 yards passing the last two weeks, but the Broncos have been a bit of a pass-funnel defense this season and Matt Ryan and Justin Herbert easily threw for 275+ yards and 3 TDs the last two weeks against them.
Nelson Agholor - Carr has been a much more willing downfield thrower with these guys and Agholor is leading the league with his 20.4 YPR. He has a TD and 13+ FP in 4 of his last 5. Olamide Zaccheaus posted 4/103/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
Drew Lock - Don’t watch the game if you start him because it’s ugly, but he has now 20+ FP playing from behind the last two weeks, and they are 4.5-point road underdogs. Raiders have allowed 285+ passing yards and multiple passing TDs in 4 of their last 5 and Lock’s two career 300-yard games have come indoors, where he will be this week.
Tim Patrick - Has 12+ FP in four straight healthy games and 7+ targets in three straight full contests. Mike Williams posted 5/81 receiving on seven targets against the Raiders last week.
K.J. Hamler - Has 10+ FP his last two games in the slot, and Keenan Allen (9/103/1), Jarvis Landry (4/52), and Chris Godwin (9/88/1) have posted big games out of the slot in each of the last three weeks, so he has a chance.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Jerry Jeudy - Averaging 8.4 targets per game with a 35% air yards share in five full starts with Lock and Jeudy the last two weeks has 11/198/1 receiving on 24 targets since moving from the slot to be their boundary receiver. The Raiders are middle of the pack against WRs with 37.2 FPG allowed. The Raiders do give up the 12th-fewest FP/game to outside WRs, but he’s hard to sit.
Noah Fant - Struggling through an ankle injury right now and hasn’t topped 50+ receiving yards in three straight. But at least TE Albert Okwuegbunam is out of the mix, and he has a team-high 5 end-zone targets. But just two TEs have reached double-digit FP against the Raiders this season.
Melvin Gordon - He out-snapped Phillip Lindsay 44 to 28 last week with the Broncos playing from behind, but he had only 1 target. Both guys were worthless last week. It’s a solid matchup at least, since the Raiders give up the second-most FP per carry, per SIS, but who knows if Gordon will get the targets he needs. Kalen Ballage and Joshua Kelley combined for 143/1 scrimmage against the Raiders last week.
Phillip Lindsay - Melvin Gordon out-snapped him 44 to 28 last week with the Broncos playing from behind, and Broncos are 4.5 point road dogs. but at least the Raiders give up the second-most FP per carry, per SIS. Kalen Ballage and Joshua Kelley combined for 143/1 scrimmage against the Raiders last week.
Henry Ruggs - He just can’t be used right now, as he’s yet to see more than five targets in a game this season.
Darren Waller - Rolling with a position-best 9 targets/game but not much downfield and he’s posted 50+ yards in just two games. Hayden Hurst posted 7/62 receiving on eight targets in this matchup last week.
Josh Jacobs - Played just 56% of the snaps against the Chargers as he was ill/banged up, so backup Devontae Booker saw a season-high 26% snap share and put up 8/68/1 rushing. Jacobs gets the ball and scores, but his lack of targets is a concern, plus the Broncos are giving up the eighth-fewest FPG to RBs (20.6), including 13.5 to Todd Gurley last week, which was mostly Gurley’s cheap TD.
Los Angeles Chargers (2-6) at Miami Dolphins (5-3)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Keenan Allen - Posting huge numbers every week with 12.7 targets/game with Herbert this season. He plays the majority of his snaps in the slot so he’ll Byron Jones and Xavien Howard some on the outside and Cooper Kupp had a 20+ target game in this matchup two weeks ago.
DeVante Parker - He’s the guy with Preston Williams on IR. He’s seen just nine targets in his first two games with Tua, posting 7/67/1 receiving. The Chargers are giving up the eighth-fewest FPG to WRs (33.4), but Parker had done well against their coverages, so we like him this week.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- Mike Gesicki - Has only 4/50 receiving on 6 targets in his first two games with Tua, but we have seen flashes with Tua and logically, Tua to Gesicki being a thing makes a lot of sense, plus Preston Williams’ absence opens up some more looks. Darren Waller and Noah Fant each scored 11+ FP in this matchup in the last two weeks, and the Chargers have given up six TDs to TEs this season.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Justin Herbert - Averaging 306.6 passing yards/game with 260+ passing yards with 2 or more TDs in 5 straight. Kyler Murray got the Dolphins for 283/3 passing and 106/1 rushing last week, but they’re still giving up the 17th-most FPG (20.1) and they will send a lot of pressure his way against a weaker Charger OL with two starters questionable. I was way less optimistic about Herbert this week, but with stars DT Christian Wilkins and LB Kyle Van Noy (their best pass rusher) on the COVID-19 list, away we go again with Herbert.
Mike Williams - Has posted 80+ receiving yards with 5 catches in 3 of his last 4 with a nice game last week in which he just missed a game-winning TD that was called a TD on the field. He’ll see the tougher matchup against Jones/Howard this week, but they just gave up 5/123/1 to Christian Kirk last week and our Greg Cosell has noticed that Howard has looked disinterested at times this year.
Hunter Henry - Under 40 yards in each of his last five, which is amazing and not in a good way. The Dolphins gave up 2 TDs to Cardinals TEs last week, so maybe there is hope.
Joshua Kelley and Troymaine Pope and Kalen Ballage - It’s a disaster, and I’d use them in this order, which is their depth chart order. The Dolphins are giving up the eighth-most FPG to RBs this season (25.5) and the fifth-most FP per carry to RBs, so it’s a decent matchup. It’s a revenge game for Ballage as well! No DT Christian Wilkins and LB Kyle Van Noy for Miami helps.
Tua Tagovailoa - Opened it up last week as his aDOT almost doubled from his first start and he surprised a little with 7/35 rushing. The Chargers are giving up the fourth-most FPG to QBs (22.1) this season and won’t have DE Joey Bosa, which is huge.
Salvon Ahmed and Jordan Howard and Patrick Laird and DeAndre Washington and Bernie Parmalee - Okay, Parmalee did retire a while ago, but this backfield is also a disaster. Matt Breida is likely out again, so that helps a little. Ahmed led the backfield with 28 snaps for 7/38 scrimmage while Howard (21 snaps, 10/19/1) and Laird (12, 2/16) also mixed in. Miami will also add Washington to the mix this week and Breida should be back. At the end of the day, Breida has been the #2, so he’s the only guy to try out. The Chargers did get hit for 22/133/2 rushing against Josh Jacobs and Devontae Booker last week.
San Francisco 49ers (4-5) at New Orleans Saints (6-2)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Drew Brees - Hit 12 different receivers last week and has 19+ FP in four straight with 9 TDs and 2 rushing TDs. Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson have each thrown for 4 TDs against the 49ers in the last two games, and SF will not have quality slot corner K’Waun Williams, which is big.
Michael Thomas - Meager 5/51 on 6 targets last week, and it is a tougher matchup for Alvin Kamara. Jared Cook, Davante Adams (10/173/1) and D.K. Metcalf (12/161/2) have smoked the 49ers in the last two weeks, so I’m feeling a big game. Plus, SF will not have quality slot corner K’Waun Williams, and Thomas does man the slot at times.
Emmanuel Sanders - Posted 4/38/1 receiving on 14 routes in his first game back from the COVID-19 list, so his role could increase. He’s in the slot plenty and slot corner K’Waun Williams is out, plus secondary receivers Marquez Valdes-Scantling (2/53/2) and David Moore (3/18/1) have come through against the 49ers.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
Jared Cook - The 49ers are giving up just 8.9 FPG to TEs (6th-fewest) and they allowed their second TD of the season to a TE last week, so a bad week to use/need him.
Nick Mullens - He has 5 turnovers in his last two starts with some really bad decisions, so he could get pulled for C.J. Beathard. The Saints defense just picked off Tom Brady three times with three sacks last week so forget it.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
None of note.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Brandon Aiyuk - Deebo Samuel is out so it’ll be Aiyuk and Richie James this week. Aiyuk has 14/206/1 receiving on 17 targets in two games with Samuel leaving early/out in Weeks 7-8 and The Saints have actually allowed three WR teammates to reach 10+ FP recently, in Weeks 6-7 before last week’s shutdown of the Bucs, so it’s hard to know if they are back or still vulnerable. It would be foolish for many, though, so sit Aiyuk the way he’s been producing every game.
Richie James - He got last week was Aiyuk was in store for and went off. As mentioned above, the Saints had allowed three WR teammates to reach 10+ FP in Weeks 6-7 before last week. Thing is, Kendrick Bourne is back most likely, which makes James riskier.
Jordan Reed - Managed only 1 for 3 last week as the primary TE, but played only 23% of the snaps in a blowout. The Saints have been tightening up against opposing TEs, but they’re still allowing 16.9 FPG to the position (3rd-most) and Rob Gronkowski dropped a touchdown last week. Malcolm Jenkins was good last week, but he’s been not good at times this year.
Jerick McKinnon - He will be the main back again this week after he was last week over JaMycal Hasty and they may be playing from behind like last week as 9.5-point road dogs. The Saints are tough to run on, but Buc RBs posted 9/50 receiving last week playing from behind.
Alvin Kamara - Season-lows in touches (14) and yards (49) with Thomas back last week and the 49ers are allowing the second-fewest FPG to RBs (18.6). Aaron Jones and Tyler Ervin did combine for 151 yards last week while DeeJay Dallas scored two TDs two weeks ago.
Seattle Seahawks (6-2) at Los Angeles Rams (5-3)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Jared Goff - Not throwing it a lot but this week he may have to. The Bills last week abandoned their running game to exploit Seattle’s pass defense and they did it with great success. Now they’re down their top two corners, so it’s a great spot for Goff as long as they have a plan for Jamal Adams and Seattle’s blitz.
Robert Woods - Coming off his best game with 7/85/1 receiving and 2/9/1 rushin and Stefon Diggs posted 9/118 receiving in this matchup last week. Seattle is giving up the most FP per game to outside WRs and now they are down their top two corners, so fire Woods up.
Cooper Kupp - Has been dealing with a wrist injury but Kupp posted 13/162/2 receiving against the Seahawks last season and they are giving up the most FP to slot receivers still this year, per SIS.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
- Darrell Henderson - He has fallen below 10 FP in three straight and has been dealing with a thigh injury, even with a bye last week. That makes him a shaky play since the Seahawks are allowing just 3.6 YPC and 66.5 rushing yards per game.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
Cam Akers and Malcolm Brown - Akers could have a larger role with Henderson banged up and coming out of the bye. But the Seahawks are allowing just 3.6 YPC and 66.5 rushing yards per game while backs are averaging 6.9/50.9 receiving per game, which is better for Brown.
Josh Reynolds - He’s been ahead of Van Jefferson and he ran routes on 85% of Jared Goff’s dropbacks over the last four games, and Gabriel Davis and John Brown combined for 12/169/1 receiving in this matchup last week, so he’s not a bad longshot with Seattle down their top two corners.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Russell Wilson - He’s at 25+ FP in 7 of 8 and he’s thrown for 360+ yards and/or thrown for 3+ TDs in every game. However, the Rams have allowed more than 18+ FP just twice this season and Josh Allen is the only QB to top 25+ FP with 311/4 passing back in Week 3.
D.K. Metcalf - He has 100+ yards and/or scored a touchdown in 7 of 8. He’ll see some of Jalen Ramsey this week and the Rams have done a good job of limiting other #1 WRs, so lower your expectations for DK.
Tyler Lockett - He hasn’t hit 45 receiving yards with 0 TDs in 4 of his last 5… of course he went nuclear in the one good game. He also just missed a couple of TDs last week. The Rams are allowing the second-fewest FPG to WRs (27.2), including a league-low 123.4 receiving yards per game, and they give up the fourth-fewest points per game out of the slot, per SIS.
Seahawk RBs - Both Chris Carson (foot) and Carlos Hyde (hamstring) are out, so it’s DeeJay Dallas who isn’t a lock with Travis Homer and Alex Collins in the mix. Dallas has scored two weeks in a row, at least. It’s also a bad matchup, as the Rams are allowing 81.3 rushing yards per game and 5.8/44.0 receiving per game to RBs. I’d use him if fairly desperate, but he’s a shakier reach than he’s been the last two weeks.
Gerald Everett - Has 4+ targets and 3+ catches in four straight and the Seahawks have allowed TDs to TEs in each of the last two weeks but no TE has hit double-digit FP against them.
Cincinnati Bengals (2-5-1, 6-2 ATS) at Pittsburgh Steelers (8-0, 6-2)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Tyler Boyd - 5+ catches and 50+ yards in 6 of his 8 eight games, Mike Hilton has been hurt and shaky for the Steelers, and CeeDee Lamb (4/71/1) and Willie Snead (5/106) have burned the Steelers out of the slot in the last two weeks.
Eric Ebron - He’s scored 11+ FP in three straight with 5.9 targets a game, and Vance McDonald (COVID-19 list) is out. The Bengals are allowing second-most FPG to TEs (17.7), so it’s a great matchup by the numbers.
James Conner - Crapped the bed last week, but it’s a great spot to rebound against a Bengals defense that’s allowing the third-most rushing yards per game (124.1).
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- Giovani Bernard - He put up 20+ FP two games in a row with Joe Mixon out, and Mixon is once again out. The Steelers are allowing the fewest FPG to RBs (17.7), so Gio’s gonna have to get lucky with a short TD to come through, but 15+ FP is attainable with volume.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Joe Burrow - Putting it up 41+ times a game and for 300+ yards and/or multiple TDs in 6 of his 8 games. But 7 of 8 QBs they’ve faced have scored between 15-19 FP, so it’s not a terrible matchup but not a good one. Burrow should be decent at worst, though. I just don’t see him having a terrible game every week at this point.
Tee Higgins - Guy gets it done every week and is on a three-game run of 5+ catches and 70+ yards. The matchup on the outside isn’t scary at all these days against the Steelers.
A.J. Green - Only put up 2/19 against the Titans before their bye last week but had seen 24 targets in Weeks 6-7 for 15/178 receiving. He’s been a Steelers killer in the past, that’s for sure.
Ben Roethlisberger - Banged up with a knee issue and also on the COVID-19 list, but he’s expected to play. The Bengals have allowed multiple TDs to QBs in seven straight games, so the matchup is fine and he has plenty of weapons.
Diontae Johnson - He’s seen double-digit targets and a 29% target share in his four full healthy games this season, and the Bengals have allowed seven different WRs to hit double-digit FP in their last seven games, but he’s still not very easy to trust unless he’s clearly your best option.
Chase Claypool - He’s still been all over the place and active, and he’s been 15+ FP two straight with 13/111/1 receiving on 21 targets. Both A.J. Brown and Corey Davis scored TDs against the Bengals last week, so he can certainly be used.
JuJu Smith-Schuster - He’s been coming on for sure with 7+ targets, 6+ catches, and 65+ yards in three straight. Slot WRs Jarvis Landry (5/48) and Zach Pascal (4/54/1) have had some success in this matchup since Week 6, the slot is the one spot the Bengals have guarded well.
Baltimore Ravens (6-2) at New England Patriots (3-5)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
None of note.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
- Damien Harris - He may go, but he’s not 100% and shaky. I’d pass on him if possible. The Ravens limited Jonathan Taylor and Jordan Wilkins to 17/66/1 rushing last week.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- Rex Burkhead - He’s probably the safest option, as he led all Patriots RBs with 15/67/1
scrimmage last week. He has a role in all phases of the game.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Lamar Jackson - Made some incremental progress in the second half last week, but the Patriots are giving up the fourth-fewest FPG to QBs (16.3). Yet they are beatable these days even Joe Flacco got them for 262/3 passing last week. We don’t know about CB Stephon Gilmore, either. He’s questionable, which means nothing.
Mark Andrews - He hasn’t scored more than 6 FP in his last three games, and the Patriots are giving up the fewest FPG to the position (7.3) and they’ve limited George Kittle (5/55) and Travis Kelce (3/70) before him.
Hollywood Brown - He hasn’t reached 10+ FP in his last three and we don’t know about the status of Stephon Gilmore (knee). But the Patriots just got beat by Breshad Perriman for 5/101/2 receiving, so he’s not hopeless.
Mark Ingram - He’s likely back, but that doesn’t mean he can be used. The man has 5 targets and 2 catches on the season.
J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards - Dobbins had 30/156 scrimmage while Edwards had 29/121/2 scrimmage while Ingram has been out their last two games. The Patriots have been run against this year and are 4.7 YPC to RBs, including 6 TDs to RBs, but these guys are shaky reach plays with Ingram back.
Cam Newton - Has 19+ FP in consecutive games and made a small improvement last week, but he’s still almost completely dependent on his ability to run in TDs. The Ravens have limited four straight QBs to under 230 passing yards, but they have allowed three QB rushing TDs, and Calais Campbell is doubtful, which helps.
Jakobi Meyers - Rolling with a 40% target share in the last two weeks and he will remain very active even if N’Keal Harry is back. But the Ravens will get Marlon Humphrey back in the lineup, so don’t expect a big game and be happy if he gets 5-6 catches for 50-55 yards.
Damiere Byrd - He has hit 5+ catches and 65+ yards for the third time last week, but that’s in eight games, so he’s hard to use. The Ravens are allowing the sixth-fewest FPG to WRs (33.5).
James White - He has totaled just 11/62 scrimmage in his last three games. The Ravens are allowing 5.6/38.3/.1 receiving per game to RBs.
