“People ask me what I do in Winter when there’s no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare at the window and wait for Spring.” - Rogers Hornsby
Welcome back.
No, seriously. Welcome back.
Welcome back to what almost feels like football. Welcome back to reading about rookies and (virtually) booing Roger Goodell. Welcome back to seeing John Hansen’s “Lessons Learned” and Graham Barfield’s “Yards Created” pop on your screens. We’re so happy to be back and I think most fans of any sport can identify with that Hornsby quote. I can’t put my finger on it, but Spring Training and the NFL Draft (more than Training Camp) are inexorably linked for me. They both reek of hope. And I think right now, hope is getting a little bit better mileage than usual. So let’s take a Sunday drive (pun intended) through the draft. This one was filled with IDP hope.
And sacks. Lots of sacks.
Day One
Top EDGEs Splash Down Early
It was no surprise that one of the top players in the draft on either side of the ball - DE Chase Young - was drafted early. He found a somewhat crowded landing spot in Washington (2nd overall), but it’s a great spot for fantasy. EDGE players can end up as OLBs in 3-4 schemes, thus all but killing their fantasy value in traditional leagues. Washington has run a 3-4 for years now, but the timing was just right as new HC Ron Rivera is in the middle of switching the team to 4-3. Drafting Young solidifies this shift, makes young DL eligible and also pairs him with freak of nature EDGE Montez Sweat. The law offices of Young and Sweat will be open for business, and business will likely be good. Unless you’re Ryan Kerrigan, whose $11.5 Million cap hit might have just officially become too expensive.
The other EDGE to go in the top-20 was K’Lavon Chaisson, who went to the Jaguars. Chaisson should see immediate snaps in place of Calais Campbell and could be in for an even bigger role if Yannick Ngakoue can finally punch his ticket out of town. Chaisson should also be DL eligible.
The Positionless Simmons Finds Plenty of Room in Arizona
Much has been made about Simmons and his transition to the NFL. Is he a middle linebacker or a safety? Does he have multiple positions or no position? In Arizona, he found a great fit. The Cardinals are likely to park him between stud MLB Jordan Hicks and stud DB Budda Baker. That will make Arizona’s defense harder to read, and put Simmons in place to rush off the edge, play in the box, and take on opposing TEs and RBs. Those George Kittle matchups will be fun to watch.
Rookie Corner Rule Rules
If you’ve been playing IDP for long, you’re familiar with the Rookie Corner Rule. QBs love to pick on rookie corners, and that is money in the bank for IDP. With six CBs coming off the board in Round One, there should be plenty of opportunities for these rookies to make an impact in IDP leagues. Most found starting jobs waiting for them: top CB Jeffrey Okudah was taken 3rd overall by Detroit, while C.J. Henderson was picked 9th by Jacksonville. Both teams were in the market for a top corner, so expect both of these highly-coveted picks to start outside come Week One.
Atlanta and Minnesota were also thin at corner and filled those needs with A.J. Terrell and Jeff Gladney, respectively. That makes four corners with legitimate shots at starting outside.
The other two corners might find themselves in the slot to start, with Oakland taking the undersized and not-so-fleet-of-foot Damon Arnette, and Miami adding yet another piece to their stacked secondary with Noah Igbinoghene. Both might struggle to find playing time, but don’t underestimate Arnette’s toughness and technique (and Jon Gruden’s stubbornness). Arnette could earn significant snaps.
Versatile DLs Squeeze Into Big Shoes
Why more people weren’t talking about Derrick Brown is beyond me. He might be the most complete defender in the draft. Carolina didn’t let him slip past 7th overall, charging him to replace a long line of big men in the middle (the last one being Gerald McCoy). But he’s not likely to play exclusively in the middle, as Brown’s skillset makes him dangerous up and down the line, and on all 3 downs.
Though lacking the pass rush chops of his fellow stud DL Brown, Davon Kinlaw should work his way into the San Francisco lineup early, as the Super Bowl runners-up replaced DeForest Buckner with Kinlaw. He may only be a part-time player on this stacked D-line, but he’s in good hands with DC wizard Robert Saleh.
Two LBs Find Great Fits (and One LB is a Head Scratcher)
The clubhouse leader for rookie IDP value is Patrick Queen, the 28th overall pick by Baltimore. The Ravens have a scary defense except at ILB. Enter Queen, whose versatility and hybrid qualities will make him an every-down LB who will see lots of targets, pass rush chances, and tackle opps as the new kid on a strong and veteran defense. Kenneth Murray went a few spots ahead of Queen to the Chargers. The Bolts have a similar situation: stacked on defense at every position but ILB. The only difference is that LAC does have some options (though not great options), which could cloud Murray’s usage. We still think he’ll play most if not every down, but that situation is slightly murkier than Queen’s.
One of the more surprising grabs was Seattle taking OLB Jordyn Brooks with the 27th pick. Having recently extended both Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright (both still playing at a high level), it doesn’t seem like there’s much need for Brooks. But Seattle did play a lot of 3-LB sets last season. If they continue to go that way, Brooks could replicate the production that Mychal Kendricks posted in that role last season (71 tackles, 3 sacks, 8 TFL in 14 games).
Day 2 and Day 3 Flyover
With the 2020 NFL Draft officially in the books, let’s go team-by-team and take a look at the defenders selected, how they fit, and whose jobs they make take.
Arizona Cardinals
LB Isaiah Simmons (8th Overall) should immediately be inserted in either OLB, SS, or a combo of both.
DT Leki Fotu (4th) has a good chance to eventually replace Corey Peters.
DT Rashard Lawrence (4th) has a similar run-first profile as Fotu.
ILB Evan Weaver (6th) is a tackle machine but struggles mightily in coverage. Likely ticketed for ST.
Atlanta Falcons
CB A.J. Terrell (16th Overall) should supplant Jordan Miller as the LCB. He's got elite CB upside.
DL Marlon Davidson (2nd) is likely to be an interior sub pass rusher but could challenge Takk McKinley for snaps off the edge.
ILB Mykal Walker (4th) is a solid backup for Deion Jones (and likely special teamer) who is versatile. Has shown some spark in a similar role as De’Vondre Campbell had last season.
S Jaylinn Hawkins (4th) is a hard-hitting box safety who lacks the range to play deep but plays the ball very well (ex-WR)
Baltimore Ravens
LB Patrick Queen (28th Overall) should be an immediate impact starter at the MIKE spot.
DT Justin Madubuike (3rd) is consistently strong vs. the run and has developed into a plus interior rusher. He might have topped out as a rotational/bench guy, or he might progress to taking over for Brandon Williams.
ILB Malik Harrison (3rd) is a strong run defender but lacks coverage skills (though that has improved lately). Could start on early downs.
DT Broderick Washington, Jr. (5th) is a one-gap pass rusher, so snaps will be hard to come by in his first season.
S Geno Stone (7th) is an underrated cover safety who could develop into an FS/Slot guy.
Buffalo Bills
EDGE A.J. Espensa (2nd) is incredibly strong but not quick. My guess is he helps others on that line be productive but doesn't flash the top-end quickness to be a major producer for fantasy. He could succeed Jerry Hughes in the future (though not produce as well).
CB Dane Jackson (7th) is likely a special teamer, as he is tough but doesn't possess NFL-caliber size, speed, or ball skills.
Carolina Panthers
DT Derrick Brown (7th Overall) is a generational talent and gives HC Matt Rhule a huge clog and pass rusher.
EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos (2nd) really helps DC Phil Snow go multiple. He and Brian Burns are a talented and young EDGE core.
S Jeremy Chinn (2nd) could be their new Eric Reid, but he's got some developing to do.
CB Troy Pride (4th) is really fast and has good hands. He’s best in zone coverage and could challenge Corn Elder for snaps.
S Kenny Robinson (5th) is a playmaker on the ball and solid in run support. He played in the XFL after being kicked out of college (academic violation).
DT Bravion Roy (6th) has potential as the 1-Tech. Great at the run, good as a rusher.
CB Stantley Thomas-Oliver (7th) plays press well and is quick, but a subpar tackler.
Chicago Bears
CB Jaylon Johnson (2nd) should compete with Artie Burns at RCB.
OLB Trevis Gipson (5th) can defend the run and rush the passer but needs some development before being NFL ready.
CB Kindle Vildor (5th) is fast but not quick. He’s got good hands. Hard to see him earning a starting job soon, but he's a project.
Cincinnati Bengals
LB Logan Wilson (3rd) is a huge old school LB who plays the run and rushes well (his weakness is coverage).
LB Akeem Davis-Gaither (4th) gives them a quick, versatile LB who could start at WILL soon. He does have foot and knee concerns, though.
DE Khalid Kareem (5th) could grow into a 3-down player but might be best suited for spelling Geno Atkins on occasion.
LB Markus Bailey (7th) is a huge upside pick but has multiple ACL injuries (including 2019).
Cleveland Browns
S Grant Delpit (2nd) will compete with Karl Joseph and/or fill out their 3-safety sets. Delpit and Joseph are both best used around the line of scrimmage.
DT Jordan Elliott (3rd) is one of the most complete and solid DTs of the draft. Could replace Sheldon Richardson down the road.
LB Jacob Phillips (3rd) is a 2-down thumper for now but has plenty of room to grow. He could be special in a few years.
Dallas Cowboys
CB Trevon Diggs (2nd) should compete for a starting job immediately. Excels at press man. Could be a steal as some think he’s the 2nd best CB in the draft.
DT Neville Gallimore (3rd) is a 0-1-3-Tech whose pass rush game is stronger than his run game at the moment.
CB Reggie Robinson (4th) has NFL-caliber size, speed, and hops. His weaknesses are his inconsistent technique and play.
DE Bradlee Anae (5th) has a lot of potential as a 3-down DE in a few years.
Denver Broncos
CB Michael Ojemudia (3rd) was a monster in zone (because that's all he played). Can he play Press? Likely yes.
DT McTelvin Agim (3rd) is a stronger interior rusher than run defender. A project but start-worthy.
OLB Justin Strnad (5th) is a depth signing but has some coverage skills.
DE Derrek Tuszka (7th) is a long shot to stick with the team.
Detroit Lions
CB Jeffrey Okudah (3rd overall) fills a big need to replace Darius Slay.
EDGE Julian Okwara will compete for snaps with Da'Shawn Hand as a sub rusher. His run defense needs work. Excelled in Wide-9.
DT John Penisni (6th) excelled as an interior run-stuffer but likely won't crack the starting lineup.
DE Jashon Cornell (7th) gives them depth at a thin position.
Green Bay Packers
LB Kamal Martin (5th) is solid in coverage but misses tackles.
S Vernon Scott (7th) might have trouble sticking but is a versatile depth piece.
DE Jonathan Garvin (7th) helps pad a surprisingly thin position.
Houston Texans
DT Ross Blacklock (2nd) is a 1-gap pass rushing nightmare who should immediately challenge for 1-Tech snaps. He exclusively played in a 4-point stance, so he needs to transition to 3-point.
OLB/EDGE Jonathan Greenard (3rd) will compete with Brennan Scarlett for the OLB/DE rusher. Greenard is an NFL-ready player.
CB John Reid (4th) played almost exclusively in zone and was consistently above average. He doesn't appear to be an elite corner but can play solid zone (and some man) in all 3 CB positions.
Indianapolis Colts
S Julian Blackmon (3rd) is a great fit to play deep in 3-safety packages. He wasn't a good CB and not great near the line of scrimmage.
DT Robert Windsor (6th) struggled vs the run (he's small) but excelled as a pass rusher. That might be his specialty in the NFL.
CB Isaiah Rodgers (6th) has a lot of traffic to navigate to earn a spot, but being a returner helps.
LB Jordan Glasgow (6th) is an LB/S who is a special teams ace.
Jacksonville Jaguars
CB C.J. Henderson (9th overall) is arguably 1A as the other elite CB this draft. Can play man and zone and should immediately start.
OLB/DE K'Lavon Chaisson (20th overall) is an edge rusher off the bench who could allow the Jaguars to trade Yannick Ngakoue. Chaisson does have injury history at LSU.
DT Davon Hamilton (3rd) could improve their run defense and challenge the underachieving Taven Bryan.
CB Josiah Scott (4th) has speed but is undersized at 5'10”.
LB Shaquille Quarterman (4th) is a good fit in their new 3-4 base.
S Daniel Thomas (5th) is a Big Dime run defender whose weakness is playing deep.
CB Chris Claybrooks (7th) recently converted from WR, so he's a project. He's also a dangerous return man.
Kansas City Chiefs
LB Willie Gay, Jr. (2nd) could be their 3-down LB in a year (maybe sooner).
DB L'Jarius Sneed (4th) plays both S and CB, so his versatility might help him carve out a roster spot.
DE Mike Danna (5th) was productive in college with a non-stop motor, but athletically his traits usually don't translate to NFL starter.
CB Thakarius Keyes (7th) is big and physical. He can press big receivers but needs development.
Las Vegas Raiders
CB Damon Arnette (19th overall) may have been a reach for Raiders. Still, LV is hurting in the secondary, and Arnette could challenge for a starting CB job.
LB Tanner Muse (3rd) is another LB/S prospect. Could stick as the WILL as a strong run defender.
CB Amik Robertson (4th) is tough and physical but is noticeably undersized at 5'8".
Los Angeles Chargers
ILB Kenneth Murray (23rd overall) is best suited as the WLB replacing Thomas Davis. He could see time as a 3-down LB moving inside in sub-packages.
S Alohi Gilman (6th) goes for the ball aggressively and could be a strong special teams contributor.
Los Angeles Rams
OLB/EDGE Terrell Lewis (3rd) gives them a prospect behind Leonard Floyd and Samson Ebukam.
S Terrell Burgess (3rd) is versatile enough to be excellent as a Dime DB. He can play in the slot, outside, and both safety positions (weakest one being deep safety).
S Jordan Fuller (6th) is best used in the box, as his run defense is above average, but his man cover skills are his weakness.
LB Clay Johnston (7th) may not have the measurables to be a starter, but a tough and skilled tackler is always welcomed on special teams.
Miami Dolphins
CB Noah Igbinoghene (30th overall) will likely challenge for the slot CB role in his first season.
DT Raekwon Davis (2nd) is the perfect complement to a team full of pass rushers; he is a force against the run, but never developed a pass rush at Alabama.
S Brandon Jones (3rd) excelled as a slot CB/3rd safety but looked overmatched deep and in the box.
DE Jason Stowbridge (5th) doesn't look big enough for the interior nor long enough for the edge, but is slippery and knows how to find his way to the QB or RB.
EDGE/OLB Curtis Weaver (5th) is likely a third-stringer but has some chops to rush the passer should he find some starting time.
Minnesota Vikings
CB Jeff Gladney (31st overall) landed in a great spot and should be a Week One starter. Tough and fast but undersized for a true LCB. At worst, he's a high-level slot but likely plays outside.
CB Cameron Dantzler (3rd) has the size and toughness (strong at press man) but not the high-level quick-twitch athleticism to overcome mistakes. Luckily his technique is solid. It might take him some time to become a high-level starter outside.
DE D.J. Wonnum (4th) is a project who has the physical tools to be an NFL pass rusher. Needs work vs. the run and more pass-rush moves.
DE James Lynch (4th) profiles as an interior defender in the NFL. Solid against the run and solid pass rusher.
ILB Troy Dye is a steal in the 4th round. He has a high football IQ and good speed and instincts. He should either transition to the WILL, or with some size added could be their MLB of the future. He’s likely a year away from starting.
CB Harrison Hand (5th) is a tough and physical player who lacks the top-end speed to last outside. He could find work in the slot and/or on special teams.
S Josh Metellus (6th) is best suited for the box, as he’s a sure tackler, but lacks the speed for centerfield.
DE Kenny Willekes (7th) is strong and relentless, which might help him develop into a starter down the road.
S Brian Cole (7th) can contribute on special teams as a good tackler, but would likely get exposed as a starting safety in the NFL.
New England Patriots
S Kyle Dugger (2nd) might be the most physically gifted S in the draft but was such a late bloomer that he's completely raw and untested in college.
LB/EDGE Josh Uche (2nd) is a tweener prospect. Not likely to stick on the edge full-time, but he could play in some disguised blitz packages. Likely a creative chess piece for Belichick who won't have much fantasy value.
LB Anfernee Jennings (3rd) was injured and inconsistent at Alabama. But when he was on (like he was most of 2019), he was a solid NFL-caliber EDGE. He likely rotates in this scheme.
New Orleans Saints
- LB Zack Baun (2nd) is an excellent replacement for A.J. Klein as an LB who can play on and off the ball. It’s possible he develops into an ILB but he’s likely best suited for a SAM role.
New York Giants
S Xavier McKinney (2nd) should play Dime LB and in the box a ton. His best traits are in the run game. His weaknesses are at deep safety. Does he play every down as an LB/S, or is he a Big Nickel/Dime specialist?
CB Darnay Holmes (4th) is undersized but a stout tackler. He is likely to start on special teams and fight his way up the depth chart.
OLB Cam Brown (6th) is a solid tackler but tight in coverage. He can play inside and outside.
OLB Carter Coughlin (7th) is undersized for an EDGE but has off-ball traits so he may be a conversion project to ILB.
ILB T.J. Brunson (7th) lacks the coverage skills to stay on the field much, but his sure-tackling could earn him a spot on special teams.
CB Chris Williams (7th) has a Big Nickel profile as long as he's near the line of scrimmage.
LB Tae Crowder (7th) is a former RB who has good range and instincts. He needs development.
New York Jets
S Ashtyn Davis (3rd) has the perfect traits of a single-high deep safety. That seems to fly in the face of what they already have unless the plan is to bring Davis in as the 3rd safety a ton in order to help use Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye up closer to the line of scrimmage and help out their weak LB corps.
DE Jabari Zuniga (3rd) is a versatile DL (played everything from outside in Wide-9 to 3-tech) and was productive everywhere. He should compete with Henry Anderson for that 5-Tech spot.
CB Bryce Hall (5th) fell in the draft, so the Jets pick up a Day Two player on Day Three. Plays zone well and is physical with a massive wingspan.
Philadelphia Eagles
OLB Davion Taylor (3rd) is a fast LB/S hybrid who played SAM and STAR in college. His ceiling comp is Deion Jones.
S K'Von Wallace (4th) could challenge Jalen Mills for playing time. Playing the slot and near the line of scrimmage are where his skills translate best.
LB Shaun Bradley (6th) isn't the best tackler but uses his elite speed to cover RBs and TEs well.
EDGE Casey Toohill (7th) is a late bloomer who could be coached into a starting job down the road.
Pittsburgh Steelers
OLB Alex Highsmith (3rd) has an uphill battle to play on Sundays. He might be ticketed for special teams.
S Antoine Brooks, Jr. (6th) gives them a cover LB/S. His limited range projects best in the box.
DT Carlos Davis (7th) is a solid run defender who needs to be coached up on his pass rushing.
Seattle Seahawks
LB Jordyn Brooks (27th overall) could be the heir apparent to K.J. Wright. He can play inside or outside with a four-man front. Excellent run defender. For now, he can play the 3rd-LB role that Mychal Kendricks played last season.
DE Darrell Taylor (2nd) gives them an instant sub rusher at the 5-tech across from Bruce Irvin. His run defense is weak but as a pass rusher, he's an NFL starter, particularly against RTs.
DE Alton Robinson (5th) is a high-value pick who could develop into their replacement for Jadeveon Clowney.
San Francisco 49ers
- DT Javon Kinlaw (14th overall) big-bodied, long-armed beast that DC Robert Saleh will replace DeForest Buckner with.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
S Antoine Winfield, Jr. (2) is an excellent deep safety with some versatility as well. His experience, pedigree, and understanding of the game makes him a good bet to be a Week One starter. He’s also a playmaker (INT/PD/FF).
DT Khalil Davis (6th) is freaky-fast but needs development.
OLB Chappelle Russell (7th) plays the gaps well but gets exposed outside the tackles.
Tennessee Titans
CB Kristian Fulton (2nd) is a big-bodied press man CB who can start on either side but has some balance and footwork issues.
DT Larrell Murchison (5th) is a strong run defender who is inconsistent as a pass rusher. He could play early downs immediately at nose tackle.
S Chris Jackson (7th) has excellent speed and flashed playmaking ability, but the measurables are a concern.
Washington Redskins
DE Chase Young (2nd Overall), is a complete EDGE and signals the full transition to a 4-3 defense. It also might signal the end of Ryan Kerrigan (and his massive cap hit) in Washington. Young played RDE, LDE, and Joker at Ohio State.
LB Khaleke Hudson (5th) is undersized but plays well against the run. With such a shaky LB corps, there's room for Hudson to grow into Sunday snaps.
S Kamren Curl (7th) can play both CB and S in a pinch, but his lack of range and mobility have him ticketed for special teams.
DE James Smith-Williams (7th) is a project, but what a project he is. He ran the fastest 40 for DLs. Flashes both excellent run-stopping and pass-rushing skills.
While there’s a lot left to be figured out before there are games on Sundays again (including a host of free agent IDPs yet to be signed, and the inevitable roster trimming), we now have some clues as to how these rookies will be used and which incumbents have to worry about their jobs. Lastly, we also got some clues to how NFL defenses are heading: more 3-safety sets, pass-rushing DTs, and LB/S hybrids.
IDP analysts Justin Varnes and Tom Simons contributed to this recap.
