The coaching carousel took another spin this off-season with five teams hiring new head coaches. This year’s cycle actually produced a 10-year low for turnover at the 32 head coaching spots — the league averaged 7.1 head-coaching changes/year in 2011-19. In this article, I broke down every new AFC head-coaching hire as well as the new offensive and defensive coordinators to see how the changes in scheme and strategy will affect fantasy for the 2020 season. Be sure to also check out my NFC Coaching Changes article.
Cleveland Browns
HC: Kevin Stefanski
OC: Alex Van Pelt
DC: Joe Woods
Meet Kevin Stefanski
The Browns hired Freddie Kitchens last off-season on the heels of a strong finishing kick to the 2018 season by Baker Mayfield and the Browns offense. Stefanski finished as the runner-up for the job last off-season, but he got the job this time around after Kitchen’s had a disastrous one-year stint as the top dog. Stefanski, like Kitchens, isn’t exactly flush with major coaching experience, having called plays for one-plus seasons (19 games) in Minnesota. However, the 38-year-old Penn alum is held in a little higher esteem for his incremental, 14-year climb up the ladder in the Vikings’ organization, and for his work with legendary play-caller Gary Kubiak last season. Stefanski is also expected to bring some much-needed toughness, discipline, and diligence to the organization that the 2019 Browns lacked in every way under the laid-back Kitchens. It might take a little time for that discipline to kick in after LB Mack Wilson gave RB Nick Chubb a concussion with a high hit on a training camp day when the Browns weren’t tackling players to the ground.
Stefanski will be new to Cleveland this season but he’s going to see some striking similarities between the Browns and Vikings personnel. Mayfield, who will be under his fourth HC in three seasons, and Kirk Cousins are both at their best throwing off of play-action and when they’re on the move with rollouts and bootlegs. Cleveland has one of the best tandems at WR between Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry much like Minnesota had with Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs last season. Chubb has to be excited to play under Stefanski after watching Dalvin Cook dominate on outside-zone runs last season. Chubb was already one of the best outside-zone runners in the league before Stefanski showed up. The Browns also landed the best tackle on the market in RT Jack Conklin and they drafted LT Jedrick Wills in the first round, who will help Chubb execute those runs even better than last season. Chubb has the potential to finish near the top of the rushing yards leaderboard once again since he has workhorse potential depending on Kareem Hunt’s role. Hunt is going to be a factor behind Chubb this season, and he could also be a factor behind OBJ and Landry at WR since the Browns don’t have any depth at the position.
Stefanski also figures to run a ton of two-TE sets this season after the Browns signed Austin Hooper to play ahead of and alongside David Njoku. Stefanski used the second-most two-TE sets with the Vikings last season behind only the Eagles. He’s also experimenting flanking Njoku out wide like the Raiders did quite a bit with Darren Waller last season. Stefanski still wouldn’t commit to calling plays at the start of training camp but I think that’s still the most likely outcome. Either way, there’s legitimate hope for a significant offensive turnaround for the Browns in 2020, and this unit could be chalked full of post-hype sleepers if this offense hits after last year’s debacle.
Stat to know: The big question for Stefanski’s offense this season is if he’ll open things up a little more since he’ll no longer have the conservative, defensive-minded Mike Zimmer breathing down his neck. Only the Ravens, the 49ers, and the Titans ran the rock on a higher percentage of plays than the Vikings did last season at 48.3%. The Vikings also ran by far the lowest percentage of plays out of 11 personnel last season at 18% (per Sharp Football Stats) — the 49ers were the next closest at 30%. Since the Vikings ran more plays in tighter formations, they also faced more stacked boxes than most teams, which Stefanski offset by running lots of play-action — Kirk Cousins ran play-action on 31.4% of his dropbacks last season. Mayfield should feel comfortable in Stefanski’s offense after he threw for the third-most yards (1427) and the third-most TDs (11) off of play-action last season (per PFF).
Meet Alex Van Pelt
It’s been a long wait for AVP’s second chance as an offensive coordinator. He called plays for one season for the Bills back in 2009, and he’s been biding his time ever since, mostly as a quarterbacks coach. As of Aug. 17, it’s yet to be determined if Van Pelt or Stefanski will be calling plays. Stefanski said, “We are working through that and we’ll announce that when it is appropriate.” Regardless, AVP’s top priority will be to get Baker Mayfield back on the right track. Baker’s sophomore season went off the rails after a promising rookie campaign. Van Pelt brings plenty of experience as a QB coach and as a former 11-year backup, primarily in Buffalo — he broke some of Dan Marino’s passing records while at Pitt.
The Browns are heavily invested in fixing the #1 overall pick in 2018 and this entire offense based on their coaching hires and their free agency moves. They also hired 2019 Dolphins OC Chad O’Shea to be the passing-game coordinator, and they brought in veteran coach Bill Callahan to work with the O-line. Van Pelt, 50, most recently worked with Andy Dalton and the Bengals QB room the last two seasons, but he’s most famous for being Aaron Rodgers’ right-hand man in Green Bay. Van Pelt has earned a reputation for his focus on mechanics and the quick-passing game, and he helped Rodgers win his second MVP in their first season working together in 2014. Rodgers was memorably upset after Mike McCarthy decided not to renew AVP’s contract at the end of the 2017 season, which widened the gulf between Rodgers and McCarthy even more before their final season together in 2018.
Stat to know: Aaron Rodgers is an all-time great quarterback no matter who was in his ear at practice and on the sidelines during games. With that said, Rodgers enjoyed an outstanding four-year stretch under AVP from 2014-17, completing 64.1% of his passes for 14,305 yards (7.4 YPA), 125 TDs (6.4% TD rate), and 26 INTs (1.6% INT rate) in 55 games. He topped 4,000+ passing yards in two of his three full seasons and he topped 30+ passing TDs in each of his three full seasons in that stretch. He won the MVP in 2014 and he led the league with 40 passing TDs in 2016.
Meet Joe Woods
The Browns had to wait until early February to officially fill out the last of their top coaching positions, but they gladly waited until after the Super Bowl to announce Woods’ hiring as defensive coordinator. The 50-year-old Woods served as the passing-game coordinator and defensive backs coach under DC Robert Saleh for a San Francisco defense that consistently shut down opposing passing games. Woods is back to coordinating defenses after heading up Denver’s defenses in 2017-18 under Vance Joseph. Woods ran a 3-4 base with the Broncos, but he’s worked with 4-3 base defenses throughout his career. He worked for two seasons under Wade Phillips in Denver as a defensive backs coach before getting promoted to defensive coordinator. Steelers HC Mike Tomlin is also a mentor for Woods as they both worked with defensive backs in Tampa from 2004-05. Woods followed Tomlin to Minnesota when he took the Vikings’ DC job. That’s where Woods worked as a defensive backs coach on the same staff as Kevin Stefanski for eight seasons (2006-13).
With Tomlin and Phillips serving as two of his biggest teachers, it’s not a surprise that Woods emphasizes fundamentals and technique over exotic schemes as a coordinator. Woods has quite the roster of former defensive backs that he’s worked with including Richard Sherman (49ers), Chris Harris (Broncos), Aqib Talib (Broncos), Xavier Rhodes (Vikings), Antoine Winfield (Vikings), Darren Sharper (Vikings), and Ronde Barber (Buccaneers). Woods will look to add two talented young CBs, Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams, to his impressive list of stud defensive backs that he’s worked with. That Browns also drafted LSU S Grant Delpit in the second round, who was once considered a top DB prospect before the 2019 CFB season.
Stat to know: Woods had a bizarre first stint as a defensive coordinator in Denver. The Broncos allowed the fewest yards per game (290.0) in 2017, but they allowed the eighth-most points per game (23.9) and they had the seventh-fewest takeaways (17). In 2018, the script was flipped on his defenses as they allowed the 11th-most yards per game (365.1), but they allowed the 12th-fewest points per game (21.8) and they had fifth-most takeaways (28). He’s coming off a one-year stint working with Robert Saleh and the 49ers defensive backs, and they allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game (178.8) last season.
Denver Broncos
OC: Pat Shurmur
Meet Pat Shurmur
Shurmur has been all over the NFL map over the last decade, and he’ll head west this time around to Denver for the 2020 season. He’s never found success as a head coach with the Browns (2011-12) and the Giants (2018-19), but his stints as an offensive coordinator have gone much better with the Rams (2009-10), the Eagles (2013-15), and the Vikings (2016-17). Shurmur had some interest from the Bears this off-season. He ultimately chose to call plays and to work with Drew Lock instead of working mainly behind the scenes with Matt Nagy and Mitch Trubisky — Nagy would’ve called plays. Broncos HC Vic Fangio fired Rich Scangarello after just one season and he brought in Shurmur, 55, to be more aggressive and to create more explosive plays for this offense. Shurmur has his roots in West Coast offenses under Andy Reid, and he’s worked with other offensive minds like Norv Turner and Chip Kelly.
Giants QB Daniel Jones exceeded low expectations as a rookie under Shurmur last season, and the veteran coach will be expected to help Lock take another step in his development this season. Shurmur’s offense will get Lock on the move more this season with play-action, RPOs, and bootlegs, and they want to get more downfield targets for Courtland Sutton and 2020 draft picks K.J. Hamler and Jerry Jeudy. According to the Mile High Report, Shurmur could feature more mesh concepts to create easier throws for Lock, and they’ll use max pass protection with three-receiver patterns off of play-action. The Mile High Report also found that the Giants threw out of 11 personnel between 70-75% of the time the last two years, and the Broncos now have the WR personnel to go three wide this year.
Shurmur figures to use Noah Fant more in the screen game and on crossers as he did with Evan Engram when he was healthy. ESPN’s Jeff Legwold reported Fant was working to diversify his short-to-intermediate route tree this off-season. The Broncos retained O-line coach Mike Munchak, who is considered one of the best at the job. The Broncos should continue to run a healthy mix of zone and gap schemes in the running game. The Broncos inked Melvin Gordon during free agency to be the man in this backfield, and he’s been a better gap runner than a zone runner during his career. Shurmur has leaned heavily on his RB1s in the past — Saquon Barkley, LeSean McCoy, and Trent Richardson in the last decade — and the Broncos have been reluctant to go all-in on UDFA Phillip Lindsay the last two years. Lindsay isn’t a major threat as a receiver like Austin Ekeler was with the Chargers, giving Gordon a great chance to be a bell-cow back in 2020.
Stat to know: Shurmur has worked with some mediocre, at best, quarterbacks over the last decade, but he has a solid track record of helping his quarterbacks play above preseason expectations in that span. The Rams posted a 7-9 record in 2010 in their first season with Sam Bradford (3512/18 passing) after finishing 1-15 the year before. Shurmur had a bigger role in Chip Kelly’s first season with the Eagles in 2013 before Kelly took more control in the final two seasons. Nick Foles averaged 8.5 YPA and he had a ridiculous 27-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio during the 2013 season. Shurmur coaxed a career-best season from journeyman QB Case Keenum with the Vikings in 2017, with the veteran QB throwing for 3547 yards and 22 TDs while averaging 7.4 YPA. Daniel Jones, the #6 overall pick last spring, certainly had an up-and-down first season with the Giants, but the rookie exceeded his low expectations by posting 3027/24 passing — he did have 23 turnovers though. We’ll see if he can work some magic with the skilled Drew Lock this season.
Houston Texans
Offensive play-calling: Tim Kelly
DC: Anthony Weaver
Meet Tim Kelly
HC Bill O’Brien announced at the Combine that he’d be handing over play-calling duties to Kelly, who had the title of offensive coordinator last season — he only called plays during the preseason in 2019. Kelly has worked and learned under B.O.B since 2012 when he was a graduate assistant at Penn State. The 34-year-old Kelly has climbed the ladder in the Texans organization over the last six seasons, and he’ll also be the team’s quarterbacks coach this season — former Texans QB T.J. Yates was also named an assistant QBs coach. O’Brien had essentially been the general manager since last June when the organization fired Brian Gaine, and B.O.B. officially added the GM title at the end of January. With O’Brien gaining too much power and Kelly’s star rising around the league, it made sense for O’Brien to take play-calling off his plate and to give Kelly more responsibilities to keep him in the fold. O’Brien has called plays in all but one season with the Texans. During his second season in 2015, B.O.B. promoted George Godsey to offensive coordinator and allowed him to call plays. Godsey was stripped of play-calling duties after one season, and he was fired as offensive coordinator after the 2016 season.
Led by QB Deshaun Watson, the Texans were more talented at the skill positions than most teams last season, and they need to start playing like it even though O’Brien traded away DeAndre Hopkins this off-season. O’Brien’s play-calling was simply too conservative last season, whether it was running too much on first down, not using his best players enough, or not using his players in the right ways. The Texans actually ran the ball on first down at their lowest rate (56%) during Watson’s career, but they still went to the ground on first down more than 27 other teams (per Sharp Football Stats). And more times than not, they were handing off to the wrong back (Carlos Hyde) despite the fact that they traded a third-round pick for Duke Johnson last summer. Dookie finished third in yards per touch (6.5) among RBs with 100+ touches last season, but he reached double-digit touches in just four of 18 games last season (playoffs included). The Texans added RB David Johnson in the ill-advised Hopkins trade, and he’s likely to get a shot to be a bell-cow back, which would keep Duke in his limited role.
Watson was also one of the most effective downfield throwers last season, even with Will Fuller missing five games last season. The Texans brought in even more speed at wide receiver when they traded for Brandin Cooks this off-season. Kelly would be wise to attack more vertically after Watson led the league with an adjusted completion percentage of 54.1% on passes 20+ yards downfield last season (per PFF). O’Brien managed to turn Hopkins into a possession receiver last season. Nuk posted seven-year career-lows in average depth of target (10.5 yards) and in YPR (11.2) — his previous career-lows came in 2016 (11.9 aDOT, 12.2 YPR). Kelly should be dialing up plenty of downfield shots for Watson this season with the speed of Fuller (4.33 40-time), Cooks (4.33), and Kenny Stills (4.38).
Stat to know: The Texans had major issues getting out of the gates fast last season, which was a bit ironic since they were eliminated in the Divisional Round after opening up a 24-0 lead over the Chiefs. The Texans finished 29th in points per drive during the first quarter (per The Athletic), and their first-quarter offensive splits were completely dismal compared to their performance in the other three quarters. They scored just four offensive touchdowns in the first quarter compared to the 10+ TDs they scored in every other quarter. Deshaun Watson and the Texans completed a four-quarter high 70.2% of their passes in the first quarter, but they averaged a four-quarter low 6.2 YPA in that same span. The Texans finished north of 7.3 YPA in each of the other three quarters.
Kelly needs to get Watson attacking downfield in the first 15 minutes instead of calling for high-percentage passes out of the gates. The Texans also averaged just 3.5 YPC in the first quarter, but they topped 4.9 YPC in each of the other three quarters. The Texans more aggressive passing approach in the final three quarters opened up room for their running game. Bill O’Brien certainly gets the most blame for Houston’s first-quarter woes last season, but there’s some blame to go around to Kelly who helped O’Brien script their opening plays each week during the 2019 season. Hopefully, Kelly and O’Brien saw what their offense is capable of when they come out of the gates firing as they did in their loss to the Chiefs. Even with DeAndre Hopkins shipped out of town, Kelly needs to prioritize a more aggressive approach with more downfield passing early in games.
Meet Anthony Weaver
With HC Bill O’Brien wielding so much power inside the Texans organization, it didn’t come as a surprise that the team decided not to renew Romeo Crennel’s expired contract as defensive coordinator — he remained on the staff in a lesser capacity. The Texans exited the playoffs in embarrassing fashion, blowing a 24-0 lead in the Divisional Round by allowing 51 points to the Chiefs. The 73-year-old Crennel became the fall guy for the disappointing finish to the season, and they turned to the 40-year-old Weaver to breathe new life into this once-dominant defense. The Ravens drafted Weaver in the second round of the 2002 draft out of Notre Dame, and he went on to notch 15.5 career sacks as a defensive end with the Ravens and Texans over seven seasons. He quickly worked his way into the NFL coaching ranks as a defensive line coach, starting in 2012 with the Jets before working with the Bills (2013), Browns (2014-15), and Texans (2016 to present).
Weaver has worked under some great defensive minds (Crennel, Mike Pettine, and Rex Ryan) and the former pass rusher has developed some good D-linemen in recent years like Clowney and fifth-round NT D.J. Reader. He also had three different defensive linemen (Mario Williams, Jerry Hughes, and Kyle Williams) reach double-digit sacks with the Bills in 2013. Weaver could be hard-pressed to drastically improve this defense back to its old status as a top-10 defensive unit unless they hit on some late-round draft picks in the next year or two. Second-round NT Ross Blacklock and third-round OLB Jonathan Greenard will have chances for big roles immediately. The Texans will be looking to lock up both Deshaun Watson and Laremy Tunsil to huge deals in the next year, which could prove costly for their defensive woes since they’ll be left with just pennies to spend on their defense in free agency. They also traded away multiple future first- and second-day draft picks to acquire Tunsil, Duke Johnson, and Gareon Conley.
Stat to know: The Texans finished as a top-10 defense in DVOA in each of Romeo Crennel’s first four seasons as the defensive coordinator before plummeting to 26th last season. The Texans finished tied for last by allowing 6.1 yards per play, and they gave up fifth-most yards per game (392.9) last season. The Texans dealt with a slew of injuries, including a torn pec for standout J.J. Watt, and they traded Jadeveon Clowney to Seattle just before the start of the season.
Jacksonville Jaguars
OC: Jay Gruden
Meet Jay Gruden
HC Doug Marrone is somehow still standing in Jacksonville, but he’s likely on his last legs heading into 2020 because of the precipitous fall his team has experienced since their 2017 AFC Championship Game appearance. Veteran offensive-mind Gruden needs to quickly turn around an offense that will have its third offensive coordinator in as many seasons. The 53-year-old Gruden racked up a 35-49-1 record with one playoff appearance in five-plus seasons with Washington, but he was fired after an 0-5 start last season. Gruden won a Super Bowl with his brother Jon Gruden in Tampa as the team’s offensive coordinator (2002-08) before eventually becoming the Bengals OC (2011-13) and the Redskins HC (2014-19). He primarily called the plays during his time in Washington except in 2015-16 when Sean McVay called the shots.
Gruden will try to work his magic with second-year QB Gardner Minshew as he did with fledgling QBs Kirk Cousins and Andy Dalton in his previous stops. Gruden said he studied Minshew hard last off-season before the Redskins ultimately drafted Dwayne Haskins in the first round. Gruden produced a top-12 passing offense for five straight seasons in the mid-2010s — with the Bengals in 2013 and with the Redskins in 2014-17. He runs a West Coast offense that is built around execution over exotic play-calling, and his passing game features lots of quick-reads and play-action, which should suit Minshew. The Jaguars brought in Gruden’s former Bengals TE Tyler Eifert this off-season to help in the red zone, and his TEs have historically been involved — unfortunately Josh Oliver (broken foot) won’t be involved.
Gruden will look to develop D.J. Chark into his next A.J. Green, with his long, wiry frame and speed on the perimeter. Green rang up 260/3833/29 receiving during his three seasons under Gruden in Cincinnati — Gruden, Dalton, and Green each came to Cincinnati in 2011. The Jaguars also drafted WR Laviska Shenault in the second round, and Gruden could use him in some intriguing ways. RB Leonard Fournette is due for a major negative regression in the passing game this season after seeing 100 targets for 76/522 receiving. He previously topped out at 48 targets and 36 receptions in his rookie 2017 season. On the other hand, Fournette should see some positive regression in the touchdown department after the Jags scored just three of their 27 offensive TDs (11.1%) on the ground. Gruden has typically preferred to spread the ball around in his backfield, and the Jaguars added his former passing-back Chris Thompson to spell Fournette in passing situations.
Stat to know: The Jaguars’ offense has fallen off a cliff since they finished sixth in points per game (25.9) and ninth in yards per game (359.8) during their run to the 2017 AFC Championship. Under Nathaniel Hackett in 2018, the Jags finished 31st in points per game (15.3) and 27th in yards per game (302.0) with Blake Bortles at QB. They were only slightly better under John DeFilippo in 2019, ranking 26th in points per game (18.8) and 20th in yards per game (341.8) with Gardner Minshew primarily at QB. New OC Gruden will look to run a more balanced attack this season after DeFilippo attempted passes 61.9% of the time (9th-most) last season.
Miami Dolphins
OC: Chan Gailey
DC: Josh Boyer
Meet Chan Gailey
Dolphins HC Brian Flores made a bold decision to fire his friend Chad O’Shea at the conclusion of the 2019 season even though the young offensive coordinator started to bring results to the table in the final weeks of the year. The defensive-minded Flores went with a blast from the past and hired one of the league’s more innovative offensive-minds as his next OC in Gailey. The 68-year-old Gailey has been out of the league since the end of the 2016 season after he announced his retirement in January 2017, but he’s back for one more go-round with his longtime QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and with fifth-overall pick Tua Tagovailoa.
Gailey has been running spread offenses since the mid-90s with the Steelers (OC 1996-97) and the Cowboys (HC 1998-99) before they were even in vogue across the league. Gailey wants to get three and four WRs on the field, and he wants to attack downfield, and he’s going to get his quarterbacks on the move. Gailey is likely to incorporate RPOs to help Tua’s transition to the league, and DeVante Parker could be quite active on slant routes, which is his best and favorite route.
Parker was always going to get a lot of love in fantasy drafts anyway this season, but second-year WR Preston Williams and third-year TE Mike Gesicki should also be great fits in Gailey’s offense with their athleticism. Gesicki will continue to be used as a big slot — he led all TEs by lining up in the slot on 71.6% of his snaps — especially after the Dolphins lost Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns to opt-outs. Scott Chandler had a ton of success in the big slot role with Fitzpatrick back in 2011-12 while with the Bills, racking up 81/960/12 receiving over two seasons.
Gailey will rarely use any two-RB sets and power running in his offense, instead relying primarily on outside and inside zone runs. The Dolphins brought in Jordan Howard, Matt Breida, OG Ereck Flowers, and C Ted Karras and they drafted LT Austin Jackson and OG Robert Hunt to revive this feeble rushing attack from 2019. Gailey’s offense is also expected to play with more tempo and with less dink-and-dunk passing than O’Shea wanted with his background working with Tom Brady in New England. Unfortunately, this will be the third offensive playbook in as many years for young receivers like Gesicki and Parker but, overall, the addition of Gailey should be positive for fantasy unless the game has truly passed him by since the last time he called plays in 2016.
Stat to know: Veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has played under Gailey for five of his 14 career seasons — with the Bills in 2010-12 and the Jets in 2015-16. Four of Fitz’s five best fantasy seasons have come under the longtime coach, including his best season in 2015 when he threw for 3905 yards and 31 TDs for 285.2 FP. Fitz is coming off his second-best fantasy season of his career at 37 years old, throwing for 3529 yards and 20 TDs for 241.5 FP.
Meet Josh Boyer
The Dolphins overachieved in their first season under HC Brian Flores, but they still needed to fill both of their coordinator positions after one season. Patrick Graham bolted for the Giants after one season as the defensive coordinator with the Dolphins to take the same position under another former Bill Belichick disciple in Joe Judge. Flores stayed in-house with Graham’s replacement, promoting the 43-year-old Boyer from his pass-game coordinator/defensive backs position to DC. Boyer has worked with Flores since 2006 as they spent 12 years together in New England before Flores hired Boyer as part of his Dolphins staff last season. Flores didn’t call defensive plays last season so those responsibilities could fall to Boyer in 2020, but it’s clear that Flores wanted to keep their schemes and concepts the same by promoting Boyer heading into Year Two. Boyer and Flores will be working with a much more talented unit in 2020. The Dolphins selected CB Noah Igbinoghene, NT Raekwon Davis, and S Brandon Jones on the first two days of the draft, and they spent big money in free agency on CB Byron Jones ($54.3 million guaranteed), OLB Kyle Van Noy ($30 million guaranteed), DE Shaw Lawson ($20.8 million guaranteed), and DE Emmanuel Ogbah ($7.5 million guaranteed).
Stat to know: If the Dolphins were intentionally tanking last season, they did a terrible job by winning five of their final nine games after an 0-7 start to their campaign. For the most part, the Dolphins’ defense did their part to lose games by allowing a league-high 30.9 points per game and the third-most yards per game (397.8). Boyer’s secondary, which was extremely undermanned without Minkah Fitzpatrick and Xavien Howard, allowed a league-high 2.4 passing TDs per game and the third-most YPA allowed (7.7).
