I don’t think it’s too big a stretch to say that we all needed that.
There’s no doubt that the first hour or so of the 2020 NFL Draft — with Roger Goodell in his basement and hosts stationed all over the country — was weird. But once the picks started rolling in, it started to feel normal, and normal is really appealing right now.
Credit to ESPN and the NFL Network for doing a kickass job of making things as seamless as they possibly could given the circumstances.
Credit to Goodell for being a good sport, even if he has the charisma of plywood.
Credit to every team that made a pick in the first round without any obvious technical difficulties!
Credit to the prospects who have to be cooped up in their homes instead of being shuttled to stage to be celebrated extravagantly during the best moments of their lives.
I’m glad we have two more days of this.
Receivers the Story of Round 1
It should be no surprise that six wide receivers went in the first round, given the talk of the historic depth of this class. However, it should also be noted that “criticism” of the class lacking a truly historic singular prospect also holds up, given the first receiver — Henry Ruggs — didn’t come off the board until the 12th overall pick (Mark Davis, through Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden, made his daddy proud, taking blazing speed over production).
It also stood out to me that the consensus top three wide receivers of this class — Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy, and CeeDee Lamb — all landed in spots that make them somewhat difficult to project for fantasy. Will Derek Carr maximize Ruggs’ speed in Vegas? Jeudy will be a Day One starter opposite Courtland Sutton in Denver, but what exactly do the Broncos have in QB Drew Lock? How many targets is Lamb going to get sharing a Dallas offense with Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and Blake Jarwin, not to mention Ezekiel Elliott touches?
Landing spot is so essential in fantasy. It’s most important at the running back position, but when the receiver class lacks a Julio Jones type of prospect, it sure as hell matters there too. So it’s fascinating to me that the receivers who went fourth and fifth off the board may have more instant fantasy impact.
Let’s face it. Philadelphia drafting any wide receiver in the first round would have put that receiver in the discussion for the top rookie receiver in redraft. Their production at the position last year was historically abysmal. But I view Jalen Reagor as a fantastic fit for what they truly lacked last year — someone who can separate on the outside and actually add a vertical element to the offense.
We know Carson Wentz is an aggressive thrower and can get the ball to a capable deep threat. Look at DeSean Jackson in Week 1 last year, which was effectively the only game Jackson would play all season. Reagor has the kind of juice Philly really needs, and if Jackson can return healthy, that’s just a bonus.
I would advise folks to not overreact to Reagor’s statistically poor junior season, during which he posted 43/611/5 receiving after a breakout sophomore campaign that saw him dominate with 72/1061/9. The major reason was unbelievably tragic QB play. Suffice it to say Wentz is an upgrade.
That leads us to Justin Jefferson, who probably won’t need an off-season program to play NFL slot receiver right away. Jefferson was widely regarded as the #4 WR prospect in this class, but Philly passed on him with the 21st pick because he’s basically the opposite of Reagor — he was ultra productive in his final college season at LSU because Joe Burrow couldn’t have been more accurate if he stapled the ball to Jefferson’s hands. But he also made nearly all of his 111 catches out of the slot, and our Greg Cosell had legitimate questions about Jefferson’s ability to separate from press on the perimeter.
That’s no bother for Minnesota, which needed to replace Stefon Diggs. Minnesota played slot-WR-by-committee last year, with 19% of Diggs’ snaps coming from that alignment, while Adam Thielen and Olabisi Johnson came in at over 30%, according to PFF. But Thielen can play outside, and Minnesota would be wise to just let Jefferson do what he does well — win in the slot. Jefferson is a candidate to catch 60 passes as a rookie.
Arizona State’s Brandon Aiyuk was the final of six receivers taken in the first round, with the 49ers using their already limited draft capital to trade up to get him, telling you how much they valued him. On yesterday’s pre-draft livestream, I compared Aiyuk to Deebo Samuel. Funny how that works out. San Francisco is YAC City, and Kyle Shanahan is the best coach in the NFL at scheming up touches for his playmakers. GM John Lynch has gone all in on that approach. I’m just not sure how much fantasy impact Aiyuk will have as a rookie.
Chiefs Make a Luxury Pick
For fantasy purposes, my favorite pick of Round 1 was the last: LSU RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire to the Chiefs. It goes without saying that a team picking 32nd is likely pretty loaded, and the Chiefs opted to add a playmaker to their already filthy offense.
Some sharp pre-draft analysis pegged Edwards-Helaire as a Brian Westbrook clone. Not only did Andy Reid agree with that, he thought CEH was better. A stellar receiver who was incredibly productive in his final season in Baton Rouge, Edwards-Helaire should step right in and start in Kansas City. I think Reid and GM Brett Veach understand positional value in today’s NFL, and I don’t believe they’d spend their top pick on a running back to have him sit behind Damien Williams.
Hell, Patrick Mahomes lobbied for him.
I will be targeting Edwards-Helaire aggressively this off-season, though I suspect I won’t be alone. I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s going in the top 24 of redraft leagues regularly by August.
Needy Clubs Bulk Up
This was a really good offensive line class, and teams dove in headfirst. I was a bit surprised the Giants made Georgia’s Andrew Thomas the first tackle off the board, but I was less surprised GM Dave Gettleman attacked the position.
The Buccaneers got a hog in front of Tom Brady in Iowa OT Tristan Wirfs, though Wirfs has a profile that may translate to guard — our Greg Cosell compared him to another former Iowa star, Brandon Scherff.
The Jets landed an absolute unit in Louisville’s Mekhi Becton.
But my favorite pick of the first round, non-fantasy division (though it certainly helps), might be the Browns’ selection of Alabama’s Jedrick Wills. It was a necessary selection for Cleveland, which couldn’t protect Baker Mayfield last season. But Wills, according to Cosell, might well be the best tackle prospect in the class. Anybody who knows Greg’s work knows how measured he is in his evaluations, but his praise for Wills was effusive.
“Wills has the look and feel of a Week One starter, and his skill set, traits, and competitiveness present as a 10-year starter with All-Pro written all over him,” he wrote in his Draft Guide.
That’s a massive boost to Mayfield and Nick Chubb.
Other first-round linemen include C Cesar Ruiz to New Orleans at #24 (generally regarded as the best pure interior lineman of the class), Thomas’ teammate Isaiah Wilson to Tennessee at #29 (he’ll replace Jack Conklin, who signed with Cleveland), and a potential reach with USC’s Austin Jackson to Miami at #18.
Rodgers Get’s Favre’d
We know all about Joe Burrow. The first overall pick lands in a spot where he can be productive — and potentially a fantasy starter — from Week One. The Bengals went 2-14 last year, but they don’t have a terrible roster. Burrow’s talent in Cincinnati actually closely replicates what he had at LSU during his record-breaking 2020 campaign.
AJ Green is a special outside receiver (if healthy), like Ja’Marr Chase (remember that name). Tyler Boyd is a productive slot weapon, like Justin Jefferson. Joe Mixon and Gio Bernard are productive receivers out of the backfield, like Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
I’d like to see the Bengals load up on linemen to protect Burrow during the rest of this draft, and with 2019 first-round LT Jonah Williams returning from injury, Cincy could instantly be one of the most improved teams in the NFL.
I’m not surprised by the landing spot for either Tua Tagovailoa (Miami, #5) or Justin Herbert (LA Chargers, #6). Both will likely be given a shot to start Week One, but Tua has health concerns and Herbert may be more of a project. Both teams have a veteran ready to step in if needed, with Ryan Fitzpatrick in Miami and Tyrod Taylor in LA. With a shortened off-season program a certainty, it may be tough for these guys to get ready. Either way, they both lag far behind Burrow in terms of immediate fantasy impact.
That leads me to Jordan Love, who will be sitting. For at least a year. Behind Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, the same way Rodgers sat behind Brett Favre. And the Packers traded up to select Love. There’s no doubt this pick is going to utterly piss off the proud and competitive Rodgers, and it comes amid undeniable evidence that Rodgers’ play has slipped in recent years. That’s not to say Rodgers stinks, but maybe the Packers hope this lights a fire under his ass. That’s a heck of a risk to take given Love is no sure thing, and Rodgers still doesn’t have a particularly dangerous set of weapons outside of Davante Adams.
Rodgers was probably hoping to come out of Day 1 of the NFL Draft with another receiver. Instead, the Packers drafted his successor. I hope anyone close to Rodgers socially distanced themselves even further last night.
Looking to Day 2
I’ve long held the opinion that Day 2 of the NFL Draft — Rounds 2 and 3 — is the juiciest day for fantasy players. It’s when most of the top RBs get drafted, and in this year’s case, we still have fantastic WR talent and all the TEs on the board.
For fantasy purposes, I’ll be anxious to see where RBs D’Andre Swift, Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, Cam Akers and potentially others land. In the right situation, these guys can be instant impact fantasy players. Miami, in particular, needs to add a back, after Ryan Fitzpatrick led the Dolphins in rushing last year. Miami at #39 and Jacksonville at #42 (with Leonard Fournette on the block) are two spots to look at early for backs. Tampa at #45 is fascinating, too. Coach Bruce Arians has gone on the record this off-season that he wants to add a pass-catching back. Swift or Akers would be an unbelievable fit with Tom Brady.
A dark horse for a RB? Indianapolis, with picks #34, #44, and #75, if the Colts want to upgrade on Nyheim Hines.
There’s been talk that Pittsburgh, which didn’t have a first-round pick, could target a back as well.
We have plenty of WRs still on the board. Denzel Mims and Michael Pittman had some first-round buzz. KJ Hamler is a speed demon. Tee Higgins was uber-productive at Clemson. Van Jefferson, son of former NFL WR Shawn Jefferson, is a route technician. Expect potentially 10 receivers to be drafted tonight. Indianapolis would probably be wise to use one of its two picks in the second round on one.
It’s not a great TE class, but someone like Cole Kmet or Adam Trautman could hear his name called early tonight.
Sharp fantasy players love Day 2 of the draft. Looking forward to sharing it with you.
