General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting, usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain
Josh Allen remains one of the few quarterbacks that I automatically click for the captain position on DraftKings. So much of his production comes rushing yardage and rushing touchdowns that he’s much more likely to land in the 1.5x spot than a traditional pocket passer. Allen has two 40-point fantasy performances in his last three, the ceiling is massive.
Stefon Diggs has yet to have an explosion game and it’s because Allen is spreading the ball around each week. The Titans have given up the most raw fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, so this could be the week. He is getting the usage, averaging more than 9 targets a game, he just hasn’t put it all together. His price has come way down which allows you to still be able to create a solid lineup around him.
Emmanuel Sanders has come up in price to only $1000 less than Stefon Diggs. That seems crazy, but he’s putting up the fantasy points. He’s averaging over six targets per game and more importantly seems to be an end zone favorite of Allen. Sanders has two multi-touchdown games in the last three weeks. He and Diggs have risen to a price that I don’t think they can hit value very often together. I wouldn’t completely rule out them being on the same squad, but it’s unlikely for them both to hit at that price.
Derrick Henry’s usage is astonishing. He gets 30+ touches every week which is hard to ignore on a single game slate. Henry is a tough fade when there are 20 other options at the position. He’s an even tougher fade when there’s only two teams of skill players to choose from. Henry started to work in with the passing game until last week in which he didn’t see a target. Before Week 5, he was near four targets per game which elevates his floor a little bit and makes you feel a tad safer. Henry could be a captain or fade player for me. At his price, he probably doesn’t even land in the optimal lineup with a 15 point DK game.
AJ Brown and Julio Jones dominate the Titans’ air yards combining for about 60% and 40% of the team’s target share as well. I would keep both separate when one is the captain. This could be a good opportunity to take advantage of two of the most talented receivers in the NFL having a rocky start to their season. Both Brown and Jones have been big disappointments, but in lineups that you are fading Henry, you can throw a few Brown or Julio captain darts in hopes this is their coming out part.
Flex
Ryan Tannehill can definitely land in the captain spot, so if you have a strong opinion on that being the case, go for it. I had to draw the line somewhere and with Brown and Jones healthy I’m assuming much of the work goes in their direction giving them a better chance to beat Tannehill in the captain spot. Tannehill should be in the flex if you’re rostering a Titans’ receiver in the flex.
Jeremy McNichols makes sense in Bills blowout lineups because that would script Henry off the field. McNichols has 10 reception upside, he’s already caught 12 balls in one game. Make sure you using him in lineups that have the Bills putting points on the board. Don’t roster him with the Titans DST and Derrick Henry, rather he’s a nice add in Allen captain lineups that have four Bills total.
With Jones and Brown likely in, the Titans also-rans that got run over the last two weeks will not be on the field as much as the last few box scores indicate. It’s going to be difficult determining who is going to get the ancillary work for the Titans. Obviously, Anthony Firkser at tight end deserves consideration, but MyCole Pruitt will also mix in and has had success in the red zone already this season. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Chester Rogers, Marcus Johnson, and Josh Reynolds will all most likely rotate in situationally. Rogers had the most success with Jones and Browns on the field, so we know he is definitely in play. Johnson had a big game last week and that could earn him some time this week. The players with the most touchdown regression set to head their way is Julio, Firkser, and Josh Reynolds.
The Bills have a slew of skill players to sort through. At running back Zack Moss and Devin Singletary will split the backfield, but it seems to be trending towards Moss being the 1A. One thing is for sure, the running backs zap Josh Allen’s upside, so if you are rostering them, it’s probably smart to not have Allen in many of those lineups.
Dawson Knox and Emmanuel Sanders are my favorite mid-tier stacks with Josh Allen. They’ve both been targeted in close a good bit. They’ve also been using Sanders as the deep shot receiver quite a bit. Cole Beasley has been somewhat forgotten, but there’s been some squeaky wheel narrative. I can see them getting him some targets. I like getting Beasley involved in lineups you think will be slugfests as he can rack up some receptions. Gabriel Davis is the cheap Bills player that can catch a touchdown
Lineup Starters
Captain/MVP: Derrick Henry
Flex: Josh Allen, Chester Rogers, Cole Beasley
Captain/MVP: Julio Jones
Flex: Ryan Tannehill, Josh Allen, Dawson Knox
Captain/MVP: AJ Brown
Flex: Ryan Tannehill, Emmanuel Sanders, Tyler Bass
Captain/MVP: Josh Allen
Flex: Dawson Knox, Emmanuel Sanders, Julio Jones
Captain/MVP: Stefon Diggs
Flex: Josh Allen, Gabe Davis, Jeremy McNichols
Captain/MVP: Emmanuel Sanders
Flex: Josh Allen, Dawson Knox, Anthony Firkser
