General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain
Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin account for most of the captain equity on Washington. McLaurin accounts for 41% of air yards over the last month and with Logan Thomas on IR it could be even more. He gets Taylor Heinicke back which should be a boost to the quality of targets he will see, if only slightly. Gibson is currently dealing with a toe issue so we’ll have to monitor his status. If he’s plays, he has a chance to land in the optimal captain with the workload he’s been getting both on the ground and through the air since JD McKissic has been out.
Jaret Patterson makes for a decent punt captain if Gibson is out. He will most likely see all touches at running back and could be a required captain piece if multiple high-priced players have median projections.
Dak Prescott has scored 12 or fewer DraftKings points in four of the last five outings. However, on a one game slate we have to view players range of outcomes and Dak has a 30+ point ceiling. The game being in Dallas could make a big difference, the four games with dud performances in his last five have all been on the road. He’s a mobile quarterback so he can be stacked with multiple pass-catchers or with just one with the hope for rushing touchdowns.
I do think a Cowboys’ wide receiver is destined for a massive breakout performance on Sunday Night. The Cowboys’ passing attack as a whole has been underwhelming in this stretch of road games, but they return to the fast track in Dallas where they haven’t been since Thanksgiving. CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper will be my top captain options on this slate as I’m expecting their target volume to hit close to double digits. Cooper is always good for a few monster games per year and against this WFT defense is a perfect spot for him to take advantage. Lamb is in the same situation, he can take advantage of this secondary, it’s just a matter of who gets the high value targets and converts them.
Flex
Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard have been just as underwhelming as the Cowboys’ passing attack lately, but I’m heavily leaning towards Pollard in this situation. He provides more salary relief and Elliott has been dreadful. He looks absolutely cooked on the field, lacks burst and just doesn’t have the look of a lead back lately. That could be due to an injury or wear and tear, either way it’s tough for me to slot him into a lot of lineups. Pollard is also banged up, but he has at least shown the ability to turn the corner and take one to the house so I’d rather shift my percentages to him.
Michael Gallup has been reasonably involved in the offense with a 20% target share and a 33% air yards share. I wouldn’t fault anyone for throwing a few Gallup captain bullets as he does get the deep targets that could result in a ceiling performance on just a few targets.
Dalton Schultz smashed last week as a result of a mismatch in the Giants’ linebacking corps. He can be slotted in Dak Prescott lineups as he has a lot of receiving touchdown equity. He’s third in target share over the last month with a 15% share.
Taylor Heinicke can add some upside with his legs so I don’t think you need to stack him when he’s in the flex with a WFT receiver, though I would recommend it. However, if you are running a 5x1 Cowboys lineup I wouldn’t scoff at the idea of Heinicke being the only Football Team member in hopes he runs in their only touchdown of the day.
Ricky Seals-Jones and John Bates both saw a 60% snap share last week which means they are getting on the field at the same time. Heinicke loves his tight ends so I like having a heavy dose of these two throughout your lineups. Bates was a centimeter from scoring last week on a fairly deep pass when he was tackled down at the half yard line. He’s should be involved again today.
Adam Humphries has taken over as the WR2 in the offense out of the slot getting the low depth of target type routes that just try to keep the chains moving. He has a 16% target share over the last month and shot up to 70% of snaps played last week, I think he’s a decent floor play in an otherwise volatile lineup.
Dallas and Washington have a slew of ancillary pieces that can be slotted in as extra cheap punt options. Jonathan Williams would be the RB2 if Gibson can’t go and is worth consideration because he can steal a goal line plunge from Patterson. Cam Sims and Dyami Brown will be rotating in and out of the offense. Sims has some touchdown equity as a big-bodied fade route type receiver. Cedrick Wilson and Noah Brown are interesting, they haven’t been on the field much at all over the last few games, but that could be because the Cowboys were on the road in slugfest type contests. Maybe back at home indoors would lead to more four-wide sets. Either way, temper expectations with those two as they’ve been uninvolved as of late.
Lineup Starters
Captain: Dak Prescott
Flex: CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz, Adam Humphries
Captain: CeeDee Lamb
Flex: Dak Prescott, Michael Gallup, Terry McLaurin
Captain: Amari Cooper
Flex: Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard, Jaret Patterson
Captain: Terry McLaurin
Flex: Taylor Heinicke, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup
Captain: Dak Prescott
Flex: Amari Cooper, Dalton Schultz, Taylor Heinicke
