Hello and welcome to the Week 15 Sunday Morning Update. What is this article? Mostly it’s a follow-up to yesterday’s big DFS piece – Scott Barrett’s Week 15 DFS Breakdown. But this article should also offer some utility of its own for redraft and dynasty players.
Each week Graham Barfield and I will be breaking down the key injuries, news, and notes from Saturday / Sunday and will be updating this article up until kickoff (1PM EST). And we’ll also be providing a sort of TL;DR to yesterday’s big DFS article. Who are my core cash game plays? Who are Graham’s preferred low-owned plays for tournaments? You can find that at the end of this article.
Key News, Injury Updates, & Notes
Sunday Morning Update
(11:30 AM) – Tony Pollard is ACTIVE.
– Jimmy Smith tested positive for COVID and is out. The veteran has barely played this year, but it’s just another loss in this secondary with Chris Westry also out. Westry started the Ravens previous two games with Humphrey out.
– Zack Moss is INACTIVE.
– James Conner and Chase Edmonds are both ACTIVE.
– Ty Johnson is a healthy scratch. Michael Carter is good to go. I gave Carter a 2.5-point bump in our projections.
(9:30 AM)
– Marquise Brown is expected to play and we’re still waiting on final word on Lamar Jackson. Sammy Wakins (COVID) is out so the Ravens 3-WR set will be Brown and Rashod Bateman outside with Devin Duvernay in the slot.
– DJ Moore is expected to play.
– Tony Pollard will play today and it sounds like how many snaps he gets depends on how he feels throughout the game. There is a runway here for Pollard to get his usual 8-12 touches if he’s running well. Ezekiel Elliott is still playing hurt, Pollard is back, and they might get Clement involved again. Zeke isn’t in play for me (GB).
The plan is for Tony Pollard to give it a go today against the #Giants, barring a setback this morning, per source. Ezekiel Elliott will start, but they’d like to get Pollard a couple dozen snaps and Corey Clement will play, too. A group effort. https://t.co/4SHxEHnseK
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) December 19, 2021
Saturday Update
- Per Adam Schefter, “Cowboys’ running back Tony Pollard, listed as questionable for Sunday due to a foot injury, is expected to play vs. the Giants but Dallas could have a slightly more cautious approach with him due to the injury, per source.”
- Per Adam Schefter, “Cardinals’ RB James Conner, listed as questionable for Sunday due to an ankle injury, is expected to play vs. the Lions, per source. Arizona now will have Conner and Chase Edmonds, fresh off IR, available on its DeAndre-Hopkinsless offense.”
- Per Adam Schefter, “Broncos’ RBs Melvin Gordon (thumb, hip) and Javonte Williams (knee), both listed as questionable for Sunday, both are expected to play vs. the Bengals, per source.”
- Per Adam Schefter, “Players expected to play Sunday include Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, Chase Edmonds, Michael Carter, Tyler Kroft, Myles Gaskin and Adam Trautman.”
- Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is QUESTIONABLE.
- Texans RB Rex Burkhead is QUESTIONABLE.
- Cardinals RB James Conner is QUESTIONABLE.
- Broncos RB Melvin Gordon is QUESTIONABLE.
- Broncos RB Javonte Williams is QUESTIONABLE.
- Lions WR Josh Reynolds is QUESTIONABLE.
- Packers WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling is QUESTIONABLE.
- Giants WR Sterling Shepard is QUESTIONABLE.
- Dolphins TE Adam Shaheen is QUESTIONABLE.
- Texans TE Brevin Jordan is QUESTIONABLE.
- Ravens TE Nick Boyle is QUESTIONABLE.
- Cardinals TE Zach Ertz is QUESTIONABLE.
- Bills WR Emmanuel Sanders is DOUBTFUL.
- Packers WR Equanimeous St. Brown is DOUBTFUL.
- Giants QB Daniel Jones is OUT.
- Jaguars RB Carlos Hyde is OUT.
- Lions RB D’Andre Swift is OUT.
- Dolphins RB Malcolm Brown is OUT.
- Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle is OUT.
- Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins is OUT.
- Ravens WR Sammy Watkins is OUT.
- Lions TE T.J. Hockenson is OUT.
- Cowboys LT Tyron Smith is OUT.
- Ravens CB Chris Westry is OUT, meaning they’re down yet another perimeter CB, easily fielding the worst outside CB tandem in the NFL.
- Lions RB Jamaal Williams is on the COVID list.
- Dolphins RB Phillip Lindsay is on the COVID list.
- Broncos RB Mike Boone is on the COVID list.
- Giants WRs John Ross and Kadarius Toney are on the COVID list.
- Jets WRs Jeff Smith and Justin Hardee are on the COVID list.
- Titans WR Dez Fitzpatrick is on the COVID list.
Things I Think
I think, speaking as a writer and content-creator, this was one of the trickiest and most difficult weeks of all-time. That’s not an exaggeration. And it’s still tricky. There’s still a few unknown variables (at the time I’m writing this) which could swing an individual player 15-20% in either direction. (e.g. the Myles Gaskin situation)
All of that being said, I absolutely love this slate. It might be my favorite slate of the season. I think we have a massive edge this week. I think my overall-grasp on this slate was excellent. I think my Week 15 Slate Breakdown was my best one yet. I think a lot of the narratives and top plays being suggested elsewhere around the industry is pretty bad.
I think cash should be pretty easy this week. On both sites I’m trying to jam in George Kittle, Davante Adams, and Diontae Johnson into every lineup.
From a tournament-perspective we can approach things a few different ways:
You can just “play the best plays”. Competition elsewhere around the industry seems fairly soft. I’m not sure our competition did an adequate job reacting and adjusting to all the changes and late-breaking news, which also made everything written before then somewhat obsolete or at least significantly less-relevant.
But you can also say this is a uniquely gross and extremely thinned out slate. But chalk forms regardless. And the chalk is congregating at extraordinarily high levels around several plays who, in a more typical week, might be 50-60% less highly owned. So, there may be even more of an edge this week to go super-contrarian.
Saturday PM Player Updates:
Sammy Watkins is out (COVID). This should lock Rashod Bateman back into a full-time role. He isn’t cheap, and is only vaguely in play, but he is fresh off of a 7-103-0 line on 8 targets. Marquise Brown appears seriously banged up, and is also dealing with an illness this week. I’m expecting Tyler Huntley to start, and Bateman has been Huntley’s 2nd-favorite target this season (after Mark Andrews), targeting him on 21% of his routes, which ranks closer to Andrews (25%) than Brown (16%).
If Rex Burkhead is out, David Johnson would become a viable punt, but not one very high on my radar.
We’re not yet sure on the status of Jamaal Williams. If he plays I don’t really have much interest. If he’s out, Craig Reynolds would be a viable punt, but not one I expect to roster.
RB Malcolm Brown is out for the Dolphins which boosts RB Myles Gaskin. But, interestingly, HC Brian Flores was non-committal on Friday whether or not he’d play him (and RB Salvon Ahmed). If they’re out, RB Duke Johnson would become one of the better plays of the slate, at minimum price on both sites. This would also represent a significant boost to QB Tua Tagovailoa and his pass-catchers… But that said all of this is probably a moot point, Adam Schefter said Saturday night that Gaskin is expected to play, and he’s almost never wrong. Bump Gaskin further if Ahmed is out.
Keep an eye on Zach Ertz’s status. He was added to the injury report late on Friday with a hamstring injury and is now listed as questionable. Obviously if he’s out, bump WRs A.J. Green and Christian Kirk.
Lower-Owned TLDR Plays
Cordarrelle Patterson ranks as our RB3 on DraftKings (per the TLDR), though he projects to be only 10% owned over there. That makes little sense to me.
D’Onta Foreman ranks as our RB5 (DK) and RB2 (FD) and is coming in far lower-owned than I had anticipated. He’s at just 11% on DraftKings and only 13% on FanDuel. Again, that seems extremely dumb.
WR3 Gabriel Davis (14%) projects to be far less highly-owned than WR5 DeVante Parker (24%) on FanDuel, though I like him more over there.
A.J. Green is projected to be significantly lower-owned than Christian Kirk, though we like him slightly more. Green is 9% on both sites. Kirk is 20% (DK) and 18% (FD).
FanDuel WR8 Marquez Valdes-Scantling projects to be <1% owned on both sites.
FanDuel QB2 Jimmy Garoppolo projects to be only 8% owned over there.
Our WR9 on DraftKings, Albert Wilson (3%) projects to be far less highly-owned than WR3 DeVante Parker (33%) on DraftKings, and, thus, represents a strong leverage play.
TE3 on DraftKings Pat Freiermuth projects to be only 3% owned.
More Ownership-Related Takes
TE George Kittle is looking pretty chalky (20% / 25%), but nowhere near as chalky as he should be. I expect to be massively-overexposed.
For non-Kittle lineups, I mentioned Mark Andrews (8% / 6%) as a potential pivot. And Deebo Samuel (16% / 23%) and Brandon Aiyuk (6% / 9%) as the leverage plays.
On our Livestream, you may have noticed how disappointed Johnny and I both were that HC Kliff Kingsbury seemed so optimistic RB James Conner would be available to play. In Johnny’s words, “Bro, I thought we had solved the slate.” He said that about RB Chase Edmonds (10%), who I expected to assume a highest-end bell-cow role with Conner out. It’s far less likely he gets that role now, but some of that upside is still there. For instance, what if Conner is active, but not really “active”? And then even if not, he’s still cheap enough on DraftKings ($5,100) where can still hit in his typical committee-role. Johnny said he’s going to keep him in a number of lineups, though I doubt I wind up with much exposure at all.
A.J. Dillon (6%) is one of my favorite leverage plays on DraftKings. He just barely missed the TLDR, so he was already a strong value ($5,700), but he also has the added benefit of providing leverage off of Davante Adams (24%). And you can bump his ceiling by stacking him with Green Bay’s defense.
For contrarian gamestacks….
I really liked Wes Huber’s calls on Ben Roethlisberger (5% / 4%) and Davis Mills (<1%). He made very persuasive arguments for both of them. But in addition to being solid upside-plays, at near-zero cost, and minimal ownership, they’re both very strong leverage plays. Roethlisberger provides leverage off of Najee Harris (22% / 21%) and maybe also Tua Tagovailoa (11%) on DraftKings (as he’s just $100 more), and he can be easily stacked. Mills provides excellent leverage off of James Robinson, the likely highest-owned player of the slate. If Mills is smashing, Robinson probably isn’t, as Jacksonville would be forced to abandon the run to play catch-up. Brandin Cooks is the obvious stack, but a cheaper option like Nico Collins or Laquon Treadwell could provide leverage off of Devante Parker and Gabriel Davis.
I still really like Aaron Rodgers (3% / 8%), but I’m only playing him stacked with both Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (<1%).
A simple stack of Joe Burrow (3% / 2%) stacked with Ja’Marr Chase (8% / 13%) and/or Tee Higgins (10% / 10%) could easily break the slate. We’ve seen a high number of ceiling games from all of these players (and as recently as last week), though they’re all projected to go lower-owned.
((I talked about all of these players in the Week 15 Slate Breakdown. So, click that link if you want to hear my full thoughts.))
Graham Barfield’s Contrarian Angles
Contrarian Plays With Slate-Breaking Upside
(Projected ownership in parenthesis).
RB
Aaron Jones (5%) – How does chalk Davante Adams fail? Aaron Jones scoring 2 TDs could do it.
WR
Marvin Jones (2%) – How does James Robinson chalk fail? Marv coming back to life with Darrell Bevell having full control of the offense. I think Treadwell will be more popular and that’s a mistake.
Brandon Aiyuk (5%) – Massive 29% target share over the last four weeks with Deebo’s receiving role dwindling. Kittle is chalk and Aiyuk is great leverage off of that.
AJ Green (7%) – Is coming in at 3-times lower ownership than Christian Kirk. That shouldn’t be the case.
TE
Mark Andrews (6%) – Has 10 and 11 targets playing with Tyler Huntley and has gone 8/73 and 11/115/1.
Chalk Plays (Ownership Projections)
DraftKings
- James Robinson, RB (38.1%)
- DeVante Parker, WR (32.9%)
- Davante Adams, WR (25.1%)
- Najee Harris, RB (21.6%)
- Stefon Diggs, WR (21.0%)
- Gabriel Davis, WR (19.7%)
- George Kittle, TE (19.6%)
- Christian Kirk, WR (19.1%)
- Myles Gaskin, RB (18.5%)
- Diontae Johnson, WR (18.5%)
- Mike Gesicki, TE (17.6%)
- Kyler Murray, QB (16.3%)
FanDuel
- James Robinson, RB (41.8%)
- Davante Adams, WR (34.3%)
- Diontae Johnson, WR (29.9%)
- Stefon Diggs, WR (26.4%)
- Ezekiel Elliott, RB (25.8%)
- George Kittle, TE (25.0%)
- DeVante Parker, WR (24.0%)
- Deebo Samuel, WR (22.8%)
- Najee Harris, RB (20.7%)
- Kyler Murray, QB (20.4%)
- Myles Gaskin, RB (19.4%)
- Cordarrelle Patterson, RB (17.6%)
Cash Core (DK/FD)
QB: Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa (DK), Jimmy Garoppolo (FD)
RB: James Robinson, Michael Carter (DK), D’Onta Foreman (FD>DK), Cordarrelle Patterson, Myles Gaskin, Ezekiel Elliott (FD), Devonta Freeman
WR: Davante Adams, Diontae Johnson, DeVante Parker (DK>FD), Gabriel Davis, CeeDee Lamb (FD), Amon-Ra St. Brown, A.J. Green, Christian Kirk, Nico Collins or Albert Wilson (DK)
TE: George Kittle
DEF: Bills (DK), Jaguars, Cowboys (FD), Full Punt