General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain
Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara are the only two players that I would consider captaining on the Saints. WIth Hill at quarterback, it’s very difficult for pass-catchers to get there with the type of offense the Saints will run. The passing volume just won’t be there. Kamara is even a tough slot into the captain spot because he and Hill will eat into each other’s ceiling, add in the fact that Mark Ingram is back and we have a dicey situation. That said, I think there is some leverage to be had by playing Hill or Kamara at captain and hoping one of them scoops all the touchdown variance.
Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski and Mike Evans will always be captain viable considering they account for 75% of the Bucs’ air yards over the last month. The way these three breakdown for me is Godwin being the top option. I think you can roster either Gronk or Evans when Godwin is captain. However, Evans and Gronk relying on touchdowns to hit ceiling games would have me shying away from pairing them together if one is the captain.
Tom Brady could sneak into the captain spot if the ball gets spread to all three of the players above evenly. The one aspect that will need to occur for Brady to be captain is a tertiary player probably has to score a receiving touchdown, like Cameron Brate.
Leonard Fournette is a bit nicked up which could make him a nice leverage captain. We’ve seen him rack up receptions when Brady starts to get pressured and wants to get the ball out quicker than usual. Obviously Fournette having success puts a real damper on the pass catchers getting into the optimal lineup, especially if the touchdowns are on the ground.
Flex
Mark Ingram makes for a nice leverage play in lineups that don’t have Taysom Hill or Alvin Kamara. If Ingram somehow sees the variance needed to get into the end zone twice and shuts Hill and Kamara from getting into the optimal lineup, you’re competing with probably 5% of lineups for first place.
Adam Trautman at the bare minimum unlocks a lot of salary provided he’s active at game time. It looks like he’ll be ready to go, but as always make sure he’s active and pay attention to beats to make sure he’s not on a snap count or just an emergency active. He was averaging more than 6 targets in the month before getting injured.
TreQuan Smith and Marquez Callaway are the top wide receiver options for Saints, but as I mentioned above, their ceiling is really limited with a quarterback who is actually an H-back. Jokes aside, Callaway may be the better option because of his touchdown upside. Smith isn’t going to see 10+ target in this game to get there on volume, but Callaway could find the end zone on one of his four targets. The cheaper version of Marquez Callaway is Lil’Jordan Humphrey who may be back after an injury.
Nick Vannett and Juwan Johnson are the tight ends that have been on the field a bit more with Trautman off. Now that Trautman is back, it’s wise to expect less out of these two. Since Vannett has either caught a few passes or scored a touchdown in three straight weeks, he is a bit priced up. He’s not a bad leverage play if you have an otherwise chalky lineup around him.
Ronald Jones and Gio Bernard have taken a real backseat to Fournett, however with Fournette banged up, it’s possible to play the angle in a few lineups that these two work in a bit more than expected. They are cheap enough that just a little bit of extreme volume could land them in the optimal lineup.
Tyler Johnson and Cameron Brate are the two dart throw Buccaneers that can be rotated through lineups, especially Brady captain lineups. However, since the return of Gronk, much of the target share has gone to the top four options in the offense. It’s usually just scraps left for Brate and Johnson, but they could very well get there if they score, which is why I like getting them in Brady lineups.
Lineup Starters
Captain: Taysom Hill
Flex: Chris Godwin, Marquez Callaway, Ronald Jones
Captain: Alvin Kamara
Flex: Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Adam Trautman
Captain: Chris Godwin
Flex: Tom Brady, Mark Ingram, Leonard Fournette
Captain: Rob Gronkowski
Flex: Tom Brady, Alvin Kamara, Adam Trautman
Captain: Leonard Fournette
Flex: Tom Brady, Taysom Hill, Adam Trautman