Hello and welcome to the Week 14 Sunday Morning Update. What is this article? Mostly it’s a follow-up to yesterday’s big DFS piece – Scott Barrett’s Week 14 DFS Breakdown. But this article should also offer some utility of its own for redraft and dynasty players.
Each week Graham Barfield and I will be breaking down the key injuries, news, and notes from Saturday / Sunday and will be updating this article up until kickoff (1PM EST). And we’ll also be providing a sort of TL;DR to yesterday’s big DFS article. Who are my core cash game plays? Who are Graham’s preferred low-owned plays for tournaments? You can find that at the end of this article.
Key News, Injury Updates, & Notes
Sunday Morning Update
(11:30 AM)
Light late news week, which is nice…
– David Johnson is OUT. Rex Burkhead and Royce Freeman will form a 2-man rotation with Davis Mills under center. Gross.
– Julio Jones is ACTIVE, as expected. He’s starting to get popular, though, and is up to 10% projected ownership on DK.
– Tony Pollard is OUT, as expected.
(9:30 AM)
– J.D. McKissic is out. Antonio Gibson played on a career-high 82% of the snaps last week with McKissic out. He’s a locked-in bell-cow again and will be one of the highest owned players on the slate.
– Deebo Samuel will play. All of my redraft teams rejoice. With Deebo back, I think it dings Jeff Wilson quite a bit. Deebo is going to be involved in the run game – especially in the red-zone – with Eli Mitchell out. Deebo’s groin injury must have not been overly serious because the 49ers are typically very conservative with injuries, so I’d expect him to have his normal role.
– Sterling Shepard and Kenny Golladay will play. Kadarius Toney is out.
– All signs point to Joe Mixon playing.
– Washington has some depth issues along their defensive line. James Smith-Williams and Casey Toohill are on the COVID list and both Chase Young / Montez Sweat are out. The line has moved from -4.5 DAL to -6 in the last 24 hours.
Saturday Update
- Per Cowboys beat writer Michael Gehlken: “Cowboys are preparing to be without RB Tony Pollard (foot) on Sunday at Washington. He tore his plantar fascia last week at Saints, missing entire practice week. Pollard said he’s a game-time decision, but RB JaQuan Hardy been elevated from practice squad as likely contingency.”
- As we discussed yesterday, the Detroit Lions are absolutely decimated by injury on defense, shaping up for what might be the most favorable RB matchup we’ve seen all year… The Lions have 10 defensive players listed on their injury report as questionable or out. The Lions run a 3-4 defense. Every 1st-, 2nd-, and 3rd-string defender on their front-line is questionable or out. Every single one. They have 2 of 4 starting LBs confirmed out; their weakside LB (Julian Okwara) and their right inside LB (Jalen Reeves-Maybin). Their strongside LB (Charles Harris) and his direct backup (Austin Bryant) are both questionable. And their free safety and highest-graded run defender Tracy Walker is out.
- Bengals QB Joe Burrow is EXPECTED TO PLAY.
- Giants QB Mike Glennon is EXPECTED TO PLAY.
- Bengals RB Joe Mixon is EXPECTED TO PLAY.
- Saints RB Alvin Kamara is EXPECTED TO PLAY.
- 49ers RB Jeff Wilson is EXPECTED TO PLAY.
- Broncos RB Melvin Gordon is EXPECTED TO PLAY.
- Chargers WR Mike Williams is EXPECTED TO PLAY.
- Bengals WR Tee Higgins is EXPECTED TO PLAY.
- Titans WR Julio Jones is EXPECTED TO PLAY.
- Washington WR Curtis Samuel is EXPECTED TO PLAY.
- Lions TE T.J. Hockenson is DOUBTFUL.
- 49ers RB Elijah Mitchell is OUT.
- Giants QB Daniel Jones is OUT.
- Seahawks RBs Adrian Peterson and Travis Homer are OUT.
- Jets RBs Michael Carter and Tevin Coleman are OUT.
- Lions RBs D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams are OUT.
- Broncos RB Mike Boone is OUT.
- Falcons WR Calvin Ridley is OUT.
- Chargers WR Keenan Allen is OUT.
- Jets WR Elijah Moore is OUT.
- Giants WR Kadarius Toney is OUT.
- Browns TEs Harrison Bryant and David Njoku are OUT.
- Raiders TE Darren Waller is OUT.
- Seahawks S Jamal Adams is OUT.
Things I Think
I think this is an extremely thin and difficult slate.
But at the same time, I feel really good about our analysis this week. And especially our analysis relative to the rest of the industry as a whole. I’m biased, but no one other site breaks things down on the level we’re at.
I feel really good about my analysis this week and my grasp of the slate as a whole. I feel a little less good about the TLDR — it’s a tough week, and I always struggle with narrowing down and ranking plays in what feels like some sort of arbitrary order.
But, on that point, I think this is a great week for tournaments. I wrote about 3,000 words yesterday on how to attack this slate from a tournament perspective. And I still feel really good about everything I wrote there. Yes, I’m still very all-in on the Chiefs to smash. Yes, I still think BUF@TB massively disappoints.
Some key updates:
With J.D. McKissic expected to sit out, Gibson is now going to be mega-chalk. I still prefer Fournette to Antonio Gibson on FanDuel, but he’s no doubt the best value-play at the position on DraftKings. But, for larger field tournaments, he’s fairly easy to fade at his massive ownership. (We spent some time talking about this in yesterday’s article.)
We glossed over Jamison Crowder during our LiveStream, but that was a mistake. Even with Elijah Moore expected to play, he was projecting as a terrific value. And now, with Moore out, he’s glaringly a top play. On DraftKings, he’s top-3 among WRs (2.62X), and on FanDuel he’s top-5 (1.78X). He’s seen 6 or more targets in 7 of 9 games. And he’s actually been Zach Wilson’s most targeted receiver in games active, tied with Moore at a 17% target share. New Orleans ranks 7th-worst in FPG to slot WRs (14.6).
Ezekiel Elliott is not healthy, and he clearly looks like it, failing to eclipse 51 rushing yards in 6 straight games. Still, with Tony Pollard likely out, he seems locked into something closer to his 2018-2019 workload (19.5 carries and 5.4 targets per game). The matchup is brutal; Washington is the league’s No. 1 run funnel, and they rank 2nd-best in YPC allowed (3.58) and 2nd-best in rushing FPG allowed (9.1). But the Cowboys do have the 3rd-highest implied point total of the slate (26.25), a favorable spread (-4.5), and he seemed pretty mispriced on FanDuel (RB14, $6,900) even with Pollard expected to play. Per our FanDuel projections, he now ranks as the RB4 by value (2.18X).
In hindsight, I think I was guilty of over-analyzing Amari Cooper. Yes, the matchup is far more in CeeDee Lamb’s favor. But at the end of the day, he’s Amari Cooper and he probably shouldn’t be the 18th (DK) and 16th (FD) highest-priced WR of the slate. He’s still not a top-7 WR play for me, but he’s a much better GPP-play than I implied in the Slate Breakdown.
Some low-owned plays to like:
Again, I’ll be playing Mahomes on all of my tournament lineups. It’s too late. I’m already all-in.
But Lamar Jackson is another amazing play. He’s at just 2% projected ownership, which means I don’t need to mention any of the obvious flaws. It’s all upside at 2%. As always, he has massive slate-busting upside. He was abysmal against Cleveland in Week 12, yes, but he averaged 30.6 DK FPG in his career against Cleveland up to that point (5 games). That included 3 touchdowns in 4 of his last 4 games, and 3 passing touchdowns in 3 of last 4 games. We also really like Marquise Brown (4%), Mark Andrews (5%), Jarvis Landry (16%), Donovan Peoples-Jones (2%), and Austin Hooper (6%). And most of those options expect to be massively (foolishly) underowned. (Shoutout to JMtoWin for the recommendation on this one.)
Again, we have Marquise Brown as a top-7 WR value and he’s projected at just 4%. Peoples-Jones too (2%). Cordarrelle Patterson (6%) and James Robinson (4%) were fringe top-10 ranked values who are looking likely to go low owned. And don’t forget about Deebo Samuel, who has massive upside and projects as a slight value. We talked a bit about him in yesterday’s piece, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes lower-owned.
Graham Barfield’s Contrarian Angles
Contrarian Plays With Slate-Breaking Upside
(Projected ownership in parenthesis).
RB
Nick Chubb (5%) – After getting slowed down by these Ravens back in Week 12 and then having the bye, no one is thinking about playing Chubb. He’s still the same exact guy – a boom-or-bust play with the ability to go for 150+ yards.
WR
Terry McLaurin (5%) – Has scored 24+ DK points four times and been held below 12 in every other game. Think this is a great chance for a boom game as the Cowboys have given up the fourth-most YPG to WRs (175.8) over the last five weeks. Volume should be there since Washington is 6-point dogs.
Michael Gallup (4%) – Has 8 or more targets in three-straight and I think we see Dallas air it out here. Love him as a part of Dak stacks for his deep threat / TD ceiling.
TE
Mark Andrews (5% on DK) – Good leverage off of chalk Gronk on DK. Andrews’ volume is so secure – he’s seen 8+ targets in five-straight since the bye. Has gone 5/58/2, 5/78, and 4/65/1 vs. Browns DC Joe Woods’ unit in three meetings.
Chalk Plays (Ownership Projections)
DraftKings
- Antonio Gibson, RB (29.4%)
- Josh Jacobs, RB (23.3%)
- Chris Godwin, WR (21.7%)
- Leonard Fournette, RB (21.0%)
- Austin Ekeler, RB (20.2%)
- Mike Williams, WR (19.7%)
- Hunter Renfrow, WR (19.4%)
- Tyreek Hill, WR (18.8%)
- Alvin Kamara, RB (18.0%)
- Stefon Diggs, WR (17.2%)
FanDuel
- Chris Godwin, WR (30.7%)
- Leonard Fournette, RB (27.0%)
- Tyreek Hill, WR (24.9%)
- Austin Ekeler, RB (24.2%)
- Stefon Diggs, WR (23.7%)
- Javonte Williams, RB (22.0%)
- Hunter Renfrow, WR (19.4%)
- Alvin Kamara, RB (17.0%)
- Mike Evans, WR (15.8%)
- Antonio Gibson, RB (15.0%)
Cash Core (DK/FD)
QB: Taysom Hill (DK), Patrick Mahomes (FD)
RB: Antonio Gibson, Leonard Fournette, Jeff Wilson Jr. (FD>DK), Josh Jacobs, Ezekiel Elliott (FD), Austin Ekeler, Alvin Kamara
WR: Mike Williams, Jamison Crowder, Hunter Renfrow, Tyreek Hill, Josh Palmer (DK), Jarvis Landry (DK), Marquise Brown, Julio Jones (DK), Ja’Marr Chase (FD), Donovan Peoples-Jones
TE: Austin Hooper, Rob Gronkowski (DK), Travis Kelce (FD)
DEF: SEA, NYJ, CLE (DK), LAC (FD)
