General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain
Davante Adams’ target and air yards share has not been as lopsided as it’s been in years past. Currently he sits at a 25% target share and a 22% air yards share over the last month. Obviously on a single game slate he still has a very high probability to hit the optimal captain slot, but I don’t think it’s as set in stone as it has been in previous seasons. The one thing that’s been a ding to Adams’ value this year is he isn’t seeing as many goal line targets as we expected. Last season, he was basically the Packers goal line back, often getting screens and fades at the goal line in lieu of running plays. I wouldn’t fault anyone for taking an underweight strategy on Adams in the captain, though he should be a large part of your flex player pool if that’s the case
Marques Valdez-Scantling has been on the field a lot and getting the type of targets we love to see from a cheapish WR2. In the last month, he’s seen a 42% air yards share. If this is a game where not many cheap pieces hit and you need an even salary distribution in your lineup, MVS makes the best option. He’s capable of a 4-120-2 line in any game given the wild 18.5 average depth of target.
Aaron Rodgers is more of a play than usual for me given the spreading of the ball more than usual this season. For his age, Rodgers provides the escapability that can lead to a rushing touchdown when the pocket breaks down. When rostering Rodgers in the captain, it’s smart to get multiple pass-catchers in the flex spot.
David Montgomery has been a usage monster and I can’t imagine that changes at all in this game. With Justin Fields under center, he should theoretically have a bit more running room as the defense has to account for Fields keeping the ball. He should see dump offs as well. Montgomery is a leverage play at captain if this game gets flipped on it’s head.
Justin Fields rushing ability puts him squarely in play for the captain spot. Before getting hurt against the Ravens, he had a bunch of 40 yard rushing games and a 100-1 game as well. If you’re rostering Fields in the captain, I think it’s smart to reduce your exposure to Montgomery in the flex and vice versa. If either lands as the optimal captain, they probably dominated the rushing yards and touchdowns
Darnell Mooney makes for a nice low-rostered captain play with Allen Robinson returning. I think many will shy away from Mooney, yet he should still get the deep shots in this offense. And let’s be honest, how scary has Allen Robinson been to Mooney’s value. He has a 12 yard aDOT over the last month, but with Marquise Goodwin out, he could be the exclusive deep target in this game.
Flex
Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon being active together is always scary. Aaron Jones will be contrarian, but I personally like the fact that AJ Dillon is extremely inexpensive on this slate. I don’t think the Packers view Dillon as Jones' backup anymore as he’s been really effective in this offense.
Allen Lazard and Equanimeous St. Brown are dart throws plain and simple. Lazard has a solid aDOT of about 15 yards per target over the last month. I think it’s important to keep MVS and Lazard separate as they run similar routes and directly eat into each other’s deep shots. St. Brown is cheap enough that a touchdown or a couple catches can get him into the optimal
Josiah Deguara and Marcedes Lewis should both see a handful of targets, but it’s really some touchdown luck and variance that will allow one of them to hit the optimal lineup. They make sense in lineups that also have Aaron Rodgers slotted in, especially if Rodgers is in your captain spot.
Jakeem Grant and Damiere Byrd have a bit of a diminished outlook with Allen Robinson returning, though Goodwin remains out so they should at least should rotate in on three wide receiver sets. Jakeem Grant will most likely get behind the LOS type targets and short aDOT routes, I think he can be rostered with the higher aDOT receivers like Mooney. Whereas Byrd seems more downfield looks so he detracts from Mooney. Grant would take away ceiling games from Montgomery eating up short targets and probably the tight ends.
Cole Kmet and Jimmy Graham seem to be doing completely opposite jobs. Kmet works the short to intermediate routes down the field and Graham is the end zone monster, much like he’s been his entire career. Kmet makes more sense with a Packers-centric lineup where catch-up mode sees Kmet getting a bunch of targets late. While I don’t love Graham’s price, if you have Fields in the captain, he has big touchdown correlation with Jimmy G.
Bears backup running backs Damien Williams and Khalil Herbert aren’t of much interest to me as I think David Montgomery dominates the snap share.
This game has a low total, so the DSTs and Kickers could be bumped up a bit in player pool percentage if you are creating slugfest lineups.
Lineup Starters
Captain: Davante Adams
Flex: Aaron Rodgers, AJ Dillon, Cole Kmet
Captain: Marques Valdez-Scantling
Flex: Aaron Rodgers, Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney
Captain: Aaron Rodgers
Flex: Davante Adams, Josiah Deguara, David Montgomery
Captain: Justin Fields
Flex: Darnell Mooney, Jimmy Graham, Davante Adams
Captain: David Montgomery
Flex: Aaron Rodgers, Marques Valdez-Scantling, AJ Dillon
