Note: For now, especially with all the covid news, I’m going to be a little more concise and spend more time finding quality picks, as opposed to writing about them.
It was a solid week at QB last week with Aaron Rodgers (QB6), Mac Jones (QB9), Tua Tagovailoa (QB12), Justin Fields (QB10), and Jimmy Garoppolo (QB15) posting decent totals for them. Ben Roethlisberger (QB20) wasn’t much, though.
At RB, we have some busts, like Rhamondre Stephenson (RB52) and Myles Gaskin (RB48), and Dalvin Cook (RB22) and David Montgomery (RB19) underwhelmed for sure. Craig Reynolds (RB17), James Robinson (RB6), and Nick Chubb (RB9) were decent.
WR was a mixed bag with the great plays like Cooper Kupp (WR1) and Brandin Cooks (WR3)
and some super sleepers like Gabriel Davis (WR4) .Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR6), and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR8), Davante Adams (WR14) was okay, as was DeVante Parker (WR14). Darnell Mooney (WR24) should have done a lot better, Chris Godwin (WR28) got hurt, and CeeDee Lamb (WR27) was out there dropping balls. Diontae Johnson (WR34) was a disappointment, but not nearly as much as Hunter Renfrow (WR59) and two reach plays in Marvin Jones (WR81) and Nico Collins (WR80) did not work out.
I was light on TEs last week, but they were good plays at least with George Kittle (TE6) and Zach Ertz (TE8) getting it done.
Quarterbacks
Note: I’m ranking them in order of my favorite plays, mainly for cash games.
Josh Johnson (Bal, at Cin — $4000 DK, $6100 FD) — He’s the top value on DK and ‘only’ the third-best value on FD. That’s based on my projected 15 FP for Johnson in Week 16. He’s been here less than two weeks, but Johnson has been on almost every team in the league and dropped 318/3 passing and 4/18 rushing off the bench as a Jet back in Week Nine. He should easily deliver a 3X return in a game I think the Ravens will be playing from behind in and chasing points.
Joe Burrow (Cin, vs. Bal — $5900 DK, $7100 FD) — He’s top-2 value on both sites. Burrow put up 416/3 passing in this matchup earlier in the season, and that was before the Ravens secondary got totally decimated due to injuries. He’s averaging a league-high 11.0 YPA against the blitz, so the Ravens may pull back on that. If so, Burrow can pick apart their backup CBs.
Justin Herbert (LAC, at Hou — $7200 DK, $8400 FD) — He’s a top-10 value on both sites. This matchup should be as easy as it gets against an injury and covid-ravaged Texans roster. They’ll be down CB Lonnie Johnson and also, uh, like more than half their team, defense included, was on the covid list as of Saturday. Considering the circumstances, you probably also can’t go wrong with Keenan Allen, especially with Mike Wlliams landing on the covid list on Saturday. I also like Josh Palmer with Jaylen Guyton also on the covid list.
Jalen Hurts (Phi, vs. NYG — $6400 DK, $7700 FD) — He’s a top-5 value on both sites. The Eagles may run for 200+ against the Giants again this week, and he is still dealing with the ankle. He put up 8/77 rushing in this matchup last time. I think he’ll do enough passing with Dallas Goedert rolling to come through.
Matthew Stafford (Det, at Min — $6700 DK, $7900 FD) — He’s a top-4 value on both sites. He won’t have LT Andrew Whitworth, which is a problem, but he knows this lame defense well, and the Vikings don’t have anyone who can cover Cooper Kupp.
Matt Ryan (Atl, vs. Det — $4400 DK, $6800 FD) — This is on the low-end, but I do like Kyle Pitts a lot in this one, and the Lions, while respectable on defense, are very beatable. They are also down a starting corner in Amani Oruwariye, so Russell Gage is looking good yet again.
Nick Foles (Chi, at Sea — $4400 DK) — DK only, where he’s the second-best value. He needs only 12 points to deliver a 3X return. Foles hasn’t played all year, but he’s not some rando UFA. The Bears offense sucks, but this former Super Bowl MVP can get 12 points this week fairly easily.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
None of note.
Running Backs
Justin Jackson (LAC, at Hou — $4200 DK, $5400 FD) — He’s a top-5 value on both sites and the top value on DK. Jackson never looked better in the pros than he did last week against KC, whom he ripped for 13/86 rushing last week. Austin Ekeler won’t play, so Jackson will lead the way in replacing him with 15+ touches likely. Jackson may be too good to be true with this incredible matchup and low price, but he needs to use listed, period. This Texans’ run defense allowed Rashaad Penny to go off for 16/137/2 rushing in Week 14, and half their defense is on the COVID list this week. Mike Williams landed on the covid list Saturday, so the RBs should be needed this week.
James Robinson (Jax, at NYJ — $5900 DK, $8200 FD) — He’s a top-8 value on both sites. Carlos Hyde is on IR and Urban Meyer is long gone, so it’s all Robinson, who practiced fully on Friday. The Jets last week helped Duke Johnson go for 23/127/2 scrimmage against them in Week 15 despite handling only four touches on the season before last week. Over the last four weeks, RBs are getting 31/133/1 rushing and 4.5/40 receiving, good for 28.1 FPG.
Ronald Jones (TB, at Car — $5100 DK, $5400 FD) — He’s a top-3 value on both sites and he’s the top value on FD. The Bucs are hurting on both sides of the ball, but here comes Jones, healthy as a horse after handing only 78 touches in 14 games. Jones will get every opportunity to collect 20+ carries, and RoJo is averaging an excellent 4.7 YPC in limited work (71/337/3 receiving) this season. The Panthers gave up 22/86/1 rushing to Devin Singletary last week, and they’re giving up a fairly generous 100.2 rushing yards per game (10th-most) and 4.2 YPC to RBs this season. Over the last four weeks, they are also facing 30 (!) RB carries per game.
Clyde Edwards Helaire (KC, vs. Pit — $5800 DK, $6500 FD) — He’s a top-8 value on both sites. The Chiefs will get Tyreek Hill back this week, and they may still get Travis Kelce back by Sunday (check status). Regardless of Kelce, I like CEH’s blowup potential against a Steelers defense that has been rocked on the ground. With their top weapons shaky (if even active) due to covid, Edwards-Helaire could take on a bigger role in a run-heavy approach. The Steelers have allowed an individual back to post 15+ FP in six straight games and are giving up 5.3 YPC to RBs the last four weeks (and 31/164/1.3 rushing in that span).
Javonte Williams (Den, at LV — $6300 DK, $6100 FD) — He’s a top-7 value on both sites. The timeshare with Melvin Gordon is annoying, but I’ve backed Williams several times recently and it’s worked. Javonte edged out Melvin in snap share (59% to 41%), touches (19 to 16), scrimmage yards (81 to 61), and routes (18 to 10) last week and Javonte has hovered just below 60% of the snaps in three of his last four games. Over the last four weeks, Javonte is still averaging a healthy 20.8 FPG and the Raiders in that span are giving up a generous 32.5 FPG.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
David Montgomery (Chi, at Sea — $5600 DK, $6600 FD) — Given their QB situation, and the terrible Seahawks offense, Montgomery should be good for 20 touches in this one. He’s seen 15+ touches and he’s seen 70% of the snaps or more in six straight. The Seahawks are giving up the second-most FPG (29.5) and the most catches per game (7.2) to RBs this season, thanks in large part to volume. Montgomery should get that volume in this one.
Josh Jacobs (LV, vs. Den — $6600 DK, $6800 FD) — He’s a top-15 value on both sites, but only the 11th and 15th-best on DK and FD, respectively. The Raiders passing game may be in trouble in this tough matchup, a brutal one for Hunter Renfrow, so I’m expecting Jacobs to get 20+ opportunities. Jacobs posted 17/82/1 scrimmage in this matchup two months ago and Kenyan Drake added 6/73/2 scrimmage in that contest. It’s much easier to run on Denver than to pass, and Denver’s offense is lame so they won’t likely run away on the scoreboard.
Damien Harris (NE, vs. Buf — $5500 DK, $6600 FD) — Harris ripped off a 64-yard touchdown run against the Bills in Week 13, and with Rhamondre Stephenson out, he’s a good bet to get 15-20 opportunities if he can handle it. The Patriots ran over the Bills with 46/222/1 rushing in Week 13, and they’ll look to use that same recipe if they can this week. I like him for 80+ total yards and a TD.
Alexander Mattison (Min, vs. LAR— $5500 FD) — I don’t love him on DK at $6800, but he’s a heck of a value on FD, the second-best value, actually. Mattison has accounted for 25+ touches and 120+ scrimmage yards in each of his last three starts for Cook with 2 TDs in those contests.
He’s now averaging 24.3 FP in starts without Cook. It’s not the best matchup, but James Conner ripped the Rams for 22/125/2 scrimmage two weeks ago.
Wide Receiver
Cooper Kupp (LAR, at Min — $9100 DK, $9800 FD) — Despite being very expensive, he’s still the top value on both sites because the Vikings aren’t equipped to stop him. They stink, and they give up the third-most FPG to slot receivers.
Antonio Brown (TB, at Car — $4900 DK, $6400 FD) — He’s a ridiculous value on DK, and he’s a top-12 value on both sites. I’m all in on AB this week for obvious reasons and I’m not that concerned by the presence of CB Stefon Gimore, who may shadow him at times. AB had 7+ catches in his last three games, and he’s going to see 10+ targets if he can handle it with limited snaps.
Michael Pittman (Ind, at Ari — $00 DK, $00 FD) — I’m all in on Pittman this week after seeing the Lions WRs crush the Cardinals last week with Jared Goff at QB. Pittman has now fallen below 10 FP in three of his last four games, so a lot of people will be off him. But the Colts do have some OL problems that slow down their running game, and the Cardinals have given up 14+ FP to four different WRs over the last two weeks. They couldn’t really stop Josh Reynolds last week, so Pittman should excel here.
Joshua Palmer (LAC, at Hou — $3300 DK, $4900 FD) — He’s a top-4 value on both sites, assuming he’s set to start for Mike Williams (Covid) and that Jaylen Guyton is out (Covid). That leaves him and Keenan Allen as the top guys in a great, great matchup against a Texans defense that may have to hire concession stand workers to play on defense.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
Ja’Marr Chase (Cin, vs. Bal — $7100 DK, $7100 FD) and Tee Higgins (Cin, vs. Bal — $6500 DK, $6200 FD) — Both Chase and Higgins are top-3 values on FD, but outside the top-12 values on DK.Chase exploded for 8/201/1 against the Ravens earlier this season, and that was with stud CB Marlon Humphrey on the field (he’s on IR). Higgins had been on a three-game run with 16+ FP and 110+ yards in three straight games before last week, and he was active with 7/62 receiving on 15 targets in this matchup back in late October. Tyler Boyd’s matchup is actually the toughest here, so these two should eat.
Emmanuel Sanders (Buf, at NE — $4000 DK, $5600 FD) — He’s the seventh-best value on DK, but only the 20th-best value on FD. Sanders hasn’t hit 30+ receiving yards in five straight games and he missed last week with his knee injury. However, with Gabriel Davis and Cole Beasley out, Sanders’ prospects improved greatly. Top corner JC Jackson will travel on Stefon Diggs, so Sanders is in a good spot to hit 12+ FP.
Tyler Lockett (Sea, vs. Chi — $6700 DK, $7300 FD) — The Bears have one good corner, and he may be spending most of his time on DK Metcalf. Metcalf is capable of going off, but he’s been a bum this year and Lockett’s been way more reliable. He is coming off the covid list, so there is downside as he did have covid. But he was also vaccinated and practiced all week and isn’t on the injury report.
Tight Ends
Cole Kmet (Chi, at Sea — $3300 DK, $5000 FD) — He’s a top-3 value on both sites. Kmet did play with Nick Foles last year, and Foles should be looking for him often inside the numbers. The Seahawks have given up five TDs to TEs in their last five games, so Kmet may score! They are also giving up a healthy 5/68.5/.8 per game to TEs the last four weeks, good for 16.5 FPG.
Zach Ertz (Ari, vs. Ind — $4800 DK, $5800 FD) — He’s a top-3 value on both sites. I had Ertz here last week and he had a season-high 11 targets and a strong 6/74 receiving. He’s eclipsed 8+ FP in four of his last five games, and it’s a good matchup. The Colts defense allowed 6/77/2 receiving to Hunter Henry last week and they now give up the second-most receiving yards per game (66.7) to TEs this season. This is, at worst, a top-10 matchup for a TE, and James Conner isn’t likely to play, which likely means an extra look or two for Ertz.
James O'Shaughnessy (Jax, at NYJ — $3200 DK, $5300 FD) — He’s nowhere near the value on FD (#13) as he is on DK (#3), and this selection is ONLY if starter Dan Arnold is set to miss this week’s game. If Arnold is active, you can’t use O'Shaughnessy, but this is THE matchup in the league right now for a TE, and Laviska Shenault won’t play.
Kyle Pitts (Atl, vs. Det — $5800 DK, $5900 FD) — He’s only the 11th-best value on DK, but he’s #1 on FD. The numbers look good for Pitts this week as the Lions are facing the most TE targets and receptions per game and the second-most yardage per game with the fourth-most FPG. The Lions have given up 11+ FP to an individual TE in six straight games with Zach Ertz (6/74 receiving on 11 targets) getting them last week.
Dallas Goedert (Phi, vs. NYG — $5100 DK, $5900 FD) — He’s the fourth-best value on FD, but he’s down the value board on DK (16th-best). The Giants are giving up 6 catches a game to TEs the last four and Goedert is now the focus of the passing game.
CJ Uzomah (Cin, vs. Bal — $3000 DK, $5000 FD) — He’s a top-8 value on both sites, since he’s so affordable. The Ravens have been shaky against TEs all year and give up the ninth-most FP per target and yards per target to TEs the last eight weeks. He also got them for 2 TDs back in October.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
Mark Andrews (Bal, — $7200 DK, $8000 FD) — He’s not a value per se, but I don’t care because MANDREWS. He’s definitely less appealing with Josh Johnson set to start. Then again, Johnson put up 318/3 off the bench as a Jet in Week 9. If he’s going to look for one receiver, like Tyler Huntley did in his first start, it’ll be MANDREWS.
Primetime Players
Carson Wentz (Ind, at Ari — $5400 DK, $7200 FD) — He’s a much better value on DK, but he’s a top-12 value on both sites. The Cardinals had to put top outside CB Robert Alford on IR last week, and Jared Goff and the Lions WRs promptly shredded them for 216/3 passing for 20.6 FP last week. Matthew Stafford lit them up for 287/3 passing and 23.5 FP two weeks ago, so I like Wentz to do some damage here.
Amari Cooper (Dal, — $6200 DK, $6500 FD) — I really don’t know why, but CeeDee Lamb hasn’t done crap in this matchup in his three games, and Cooper gets it done. Cooper was also complaining a little this week, so he’s likely to get more looks. Plus, they are down their top outside CB in William Jackson III. Cooper went for 5/51/1 receiving on seven targets against Washington two weeks ago and in his last three games in this matchup dating back to 2020, he’s averaged 6/81/.7, good for 18.3 FPG.
Jaylen Waddle (Mia, at NO — $6400 DK, $6900 FD) — He’s not a must-play guy, but I do like his matchup inside, which is where the Saints have been vulnerable with CB PJ Williams. Over the last eight weeks, they are giving up the fourth-most FPG to slot receivers.
Mike Gesicki (Mia, vs. NO — $54000 DK, $5900 FD) — Gesicki has seen 19 targets and a 30% target share in Miami’s last two games, and while the matchup may look tough against a defense that frustrated Rob Gronkowski last week and held him to just 2/29 receiving on 11 targets, they won’t have the guy mostly responsible for that, S Malcolm Jenkins, who is on the Covid list. If Jenkins is out, Gesicki will likely be targeted plenty.
