Things improved in Week 13 with Tom Brady (QB2) and Justin Herbert (QB3) highlighted in the article last week, and Taylor Heinicke (QB16) and Teddy Bridgewater (QB18) were decent. Only lame-ass Derek Carr (QB21) truly came up small.
The success continued with some hits with Javonte Williams (RB1), Jonathan Taylor (RB3), Antonio Gibson (RB6), Alexander Mattison (RB8), James Conner (RB12), and Miles Sanders (RB15). There were some buzzkills, though, with our luck finally running out with Joe Mixon (RB25), and Myles Gaskin (RB34) was meh. Devin Singletary (RB46) and Rex Burkhead (RB40) basically crapped the bed.
It was a fairly volatile week at WR with some nice hits like Justin Jefferson (WR1), Keenan Allen (WR8), Hunter Renfrow (WR12), and Jaylen Waddle (WR15), plus Josh Reynolds (WR32) was a win. But DK Metcalf (WR31), Darnell Mooney (WR43), and Brandon Aiyuk (WR40) did not hit.
It was a pretty good week for TEs, as I covered George Kittle (TE1), Rob Gronkowski (TE3),
Logan Thomas (TE5), and Tyler Conklin (TE6). Pat Friermuth (TE17) was disappointing, though, and Foster Moreau (TE27) and CJ Uzomah (TE26) came up small (CJ almost scored).
Quarterbacks
Note: I’m ranking them in order of my favorite plays, mainly for cash games.
Joe Burrow (Cin, vs. SF — $6000 DK, $7100 FD) — He’s a top-3 value on both sites and the top value on FD. He’s risky with his dislocated pinky on his throwing hand, but the ball came out well enough last week after the injury, and he’s reportedly thrown it well in practice this week. He hasn’t hit for multiple TDs in four straight, but he did hit 300 yards passing for the first time since Week 7 last week. The 49ers have held five straight QBs to fewer than 18 FP and are giving up only 13.7 FPG in their last four, but they will likely be without top CB Emmanuel Moseley, who didn’t practice all week, and they won’t have LB Dre Greenlaw, so they should be weakened. Ja’Marr Chase is due to explode and this week is a good week for him to blow up.
Dak Prescott (Dal, — $6700 DK, $8100 FD) — He’s a top-5 value on both sites. I do not think the struggling Cowboys running game (and OL) will bounce back with this tough matchup, so it’s going to be on Dak to get it done. Prescott has fallen below 13 FP in two of his last three games, but his receiving corps has been thinned. They are healthier now, and Washington is still giving up the most FPG (23.2) and the most TD passes per game (2.2) to QBs this season. They have improved lately, but the Cowboys are loaded and will be tough for them to stop.
Taysom Hill (NO, — $5600 DK, $7700 FD) — He’s a top-8 value on both sites, and the #2 value on DK. He was a full go in practice all week, so I think he will be better and less rusty in his second start this week. And Hill threw four INTs and completed 46.3% of his passes last week, yet he was still a QB1. He will get Alvin Kamara back this week and he has enough in the passing game to take advantage of this great matchup. The Jets are giving up the third-most rushing yards per game (133.4) and the fourth-most passing yards (274.7), so Hill looks damn near a lock to deliver a 3X return.
Justin Fields (Chi, at GB — $5000 DK, $6500 FD) — He’s a top-3 option on both sites and the top value on DK, thanks to the old cheat code and a low salary. He’s not easy to trust and is probably still sore (ribs), but he did show signs of life earlier in the year in this matchup with 174/1 passing and 6/43 rushing. He will have Allen Robinson available to him, so between A-Rob, his guy Darnell Mooney and his other guy TE Cole Kmet, I have to think Fields can get to 200/1 passing. He’s averaging 52 rushing yards a game in his last four, and that’s obviously the key to it all: he has to run for at least 40 yards, and I think he will. If I still had serious doubts about Fields, I’d use CB Jaire Alexander’s status as a guide. If Alexander is out, things will be easier for Fields.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
Running Backs
Antonio Gibson (WFT, — $6000 DK, $7400 FD) — Gibson has handled a whopping 26, 19, 36, and 28 touches in his last four games, and he’s hit 21+ FP in three of those four games, so he’s still a value at his pricing. Even if JD McKissic returns to a larger role, I’m still backing Gibson, who is averaging 20/121.5/2 in this matchup in his last two games (his only two games) against them.
Sony Michel (LAR, at Ari — $5600 DK, $6500 FD) — With Darrell Henderson placed on the Covid list, he’s almost definitely out, and so therefore Michel is a top-2 value on both sites. The Rams went heavy last week with an offensive lineup as a third TE and Michel looked good running it and he turned 27 opportunities into 127/1 scrimmage against the Jaguars, a decent run defense. Sony’s looking good against a Cardinal defense that is definitely easier to run on and is giving up 4.6 YPC and 8.5 receptions per game to RBs the last four weeks.
Javonte Williams (Den, vs. Det — $5900 DK, $6700 FD) — He’s a top-5 value on both sites and I’m going to get low prices on Williams while the gettin's good. I’d have to think Williams will handle at least 60% of the snaps and touches after his performance last week, and it’s a great spot against a Lions team that’s on the road in the cold, just shot it’s 2021 shot last week with it’s first win, and literally has a third of its team on the injury report. Even if Melvin is a big factor, there’s room for two productive RBs with Denver as eight-point home favorites. The Lions are giving up the fourth-most FPG (26.9) to RBs this season.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
Clyde Edwards Helaire (KC, vs. LV — $6100 DK, $6500 FD) — He’s only the 12th-best value on DK, but he is the fifth-best value on FD. The Chiefs are actually winning with their defense now, so it would not be a shock to see the struggling Raiders offense lay an egg this week in KC, where the Chiefs are 10-point favorites. The Raiders won’t have DE Carl Nassib and a starting LB in Denzel Perryman, so this is a great spot against a defense that helped Darrel Williams finish as the RB1 for the week less than month ago.
Cordarrelle Patterson (Atl, at Car — $6900 DK, $7800 FD) — He’s really the only chance they have on offense, and this should be a relatively close game. Patterson has hit double-digit carries in his last two and has 12+ FP in nine straight. He put up 9/35 rushing and 5/37/1 receiving in this matchup in Week 8, and I expect a little more with 12+ carries. He may not hit 3X return, but he won’t crap the bed for you, either.
Wide Receiver
Ja’Marr Chase (Cin, vs. SF — $6900 DK, $7200 FD) — He’s a top-8 value on both sites, but the top value on FD. The 49ers will likely be without top CB Emmanuel Moseley, and I’m feeling a big game for Chase after he just missed a long TD last week. Joe Burrow threw a great ball to Chase on a “go” route, and Chase was on top of the corner, but Chase could not catch it and it became an interception. It could have been a 71-yard TD, and I think the duo will look to make amends for that because the matchup is perfect to do just that.
Donovan Peoples-Jones (Cle, — $3900 DK, $5200 FD) — He’s a top-2 value on both sites, and I’m all in this week. TEs David Njoku and Harrison Bryant are out, as is WR Anthony Schwartz, and DPJ is not even on the injury report. The Ravens’ secondary is ravaged by injuries with Marlon Humphrey on IR, and while Jarvis Landry is looking good in this matchup, I like the upside of DPJ, as the Ravens play a lot of cover 1, which is a recipe for a big play. And Baker Mayfield excels against man to man. The Ravens have allowed four different WRs to reach 100+ yards in the last three weeks.
Jamison Crowder (NYJ, — $4700 DK, $5500 FD) — With Elijah Moore ruled out and Corey Davis already out, Crowder is a really good bargain this week, since Zach Wilson should look for him often. He’s a top-5 value on both sites. The Saints and CB PJ Williams have been quite giving inside, giving up the third-most FPG to slot receivers the last eight weeks.
Hunter Renfrow (LV, at KC — $6100 DK, $6700 FD) — Here he is, the only Raider receiver you can trust when Darren Waller is out (and even when he’s not), and Waller is out. Renfrow in Weeks 12-13 had a combined 17/236 receiving on 19 targets for 40.8 FP, and he got it done with 7/46/1 receiving on nine targets against the Chiefs in Week 10.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
Tyreek Hill (KC, vs. LV — $8300 DK, $8700 FD) — He’s actually a top-3 value on FD, but only 17th on DK. Regardless, if the Raiders are dumb enough to stick with a lot of cover-3 with single-high safeties and a predictable defense, then we must take advantage of that because that’s the opposite of what KC is struggling against this year. The Raiders faced a struggling Patrick Mahomes just three weeks ago and Hill posted 7/83/2 receiving on 10 targets. I’m expecting similar success.
Amari Cooper (Dal, at WFT — $5900 DK, $6700 FD) — He’s barely a top-20 value on both sites, but I like his history in this matchup and Cooper seems to be 100% healthy now and is due for a big game. In his two games against Washington last year, Cooper put up 7/80 and 6/112/1, so he likes playing them. And Dallas will need its passing game to carry them this week.
Terry McLaurin (WFT, vs. Dal — $7000 DK, $7100 FD) — He’s the 15th-best value on FD, but he’s buried on the value list on DK. But that’s per my projection for McLaurin, which is certainly tempered. He’s averaging 19.1 FPG in his last two games in this matchup (7/91/.5 per game), and the Cowboys are giving up an extremely generous 14.7 YPR to WRs this season. He’ll see a lot of Trevon Diggs, but he put up 7/90 and 7/92/1 in this matchup last year and he can potentially beat the gambling Diggs like a drum.
Tyler Lockett (Sea, at Hou — $6700 DK, $7300 FD) — DK Metcalf is tempting for sure, since they tried to get him the ball more last week. But he’s also been dealing with a foot issue, and Lockett has been healthier and more reliable. Lockett since Russell Wilson has returned has a healthy target share at 20%, and he’s posted three straight games with 12+ FP. Lockett leads the league with 510 yards on passes 20+ yards downfield, and the Texans are certainly vulnerable.
Tight Ends
Ricky Seals-Jones (WFT, — $3600 DK, $4500 FD) — He’s a top-4 value on both sites, and the top value on FD. Seals-Jones was able to practice last week, which bodes well for his role this week as he replaces Logan Thomas in this TE-friendly offense. RSJ had 4+ catches in three straight games in Weeks 5-7 while filling in for Thomas and healthy, and while rookie John Bates has become more of a factor in recent weeks, it’s a good matchup with the Cowboys giving up the 11th-most FPG (13.8) to TEs this season. Even Nick Vannett went for 3/48 receiving last week.
Austin Hooper (Cle, vs. Bal — $3500 DK, $5000 FD) — He’s a top-5 value on both sites because David Njoku and Harrison Bryant are out. Njoku posted 3/35/1 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago and the Ravens are giving up the third-most FPG (16.3) to TEs this season. Baker Mayfield isn’t easy to trust, but he practiced fully all week.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
Dalton Schultz (Dal, at WFT — $5400 DK, $5700 FD) — He’s pricey on DK, but a top-10 value on FD. I do not think the Cowboys will be able to run the ball much, so I’m seeing 35+ attempts for Dak Prescott. There are voids in the middle of the field against Washington, who give up the sixth-most FP per target and EPA per attempt to TEs the last eight weeks.
Primetime Players
Josh Allen (Buf, — $7800 DK, $8800 FD) — He is the #4 value on FD, but only the 11th-best value on DK. The Bills tried to go heavy and run it last week but they still couldn’t, so I’m expecting them to bail on their rushing attack and for Allen to throw it 50+ times. The Bucs are facing the most pass attempts per game (39.8), as well.
Aaron Rodgers (GB, vs. Chi — $7200 DK, $7900 FD) — He’s a top-8 value on both sites, and he’s top-3 on FD. I had him in this article in the first matchup with the Bears because, well, he owns their asses. In his last three games in this matchup dating back to just 2020, he’s averaged 25.1 FPG with 292/2 passing. Unless their RBs go off, this is a 20-25-point game for Rodgers.
Leonard Fournette (TB, — $7400 DK, $7600 FD) — He’s a top-7 value on both sites and the third-best value on FD. Fournette at this point won’t be denied fantasy production, given his large role in the offense. He has 16+ touches in four straight with 5 TDs since their Week 9 bye. The Bills are giving up the sixth-fewest FPG (20.9) to RBs, but they’ve been run all over recently by the Patriots’ RBs (31.4 FP) and Jonathan Taylor (53.4). They won’t have DT Star Lotulelei, which will hurt their ability to stop Lenny.
Marquez Valdez-Scantling (GB, vs. Chi — $4300 DK, $5400 FD) — He’s a top-7 value on DK, but only 16th-best on FD. MVS should be needed more with Randall Cobb out, and he’s in a solid spot as the Bears handled Davante Adams pretty well in the first matchup, mostly with top corner Jalen Johnson. MVS has seen a team-best 19 targets over Green Bay’s last two games, and the Bears have been vulnerable to big plays and are giving up a generous 14.0 YPR this season.
Dawson Knox (Buf, — $5000 DK, $6000 FD) — Knox was brutal last week and has fallen below 35 receiving yards in four of his last five games, so he’s risky. But he also has an 80-yard game and a two-TD game in that span and he’s sneaky this week. The Bucs have given up just one TD to a TE in their last six games, but I think Josh Allen will throw it 50+ times, and he looks for Knox in the red zone A LOT. And S Jordan Whitehead is out for Tampa, which helps.
