I’m pumped for an intriguing Friday Night slate!
This Friday slate provides so many solid options at each position, but several question marks as well. Will Aaron Allen get his second straight start at QB for Louisiana Tech? Will Frank Gore Jr. or Antavious Willis step in at QB again for Southern Mississippi? Is Nathaniel Dell a lock at WR? Is Smoke Harris the best WR value on the slate?
Let’s dig in…
Against the Spread Picks
Nevada (-1.5) vs Air Force
Houston (-8.5) vs Memphis
Louisiana Tech vs Southern Mississippi (Under 49.5)
Houston vs Memphis (Over 60.5)
Jayden de Laura, Washington State vs Arizona (DK: $7.3K | FD: $9.8K | O/U: 52.5 | Implied: 33.75)
Jayden de Laura is having a solid sophomore campaign averaging 250.3 PASS YPG and 2 TDs per game for 20.8 FPG. He has a great matchup this week versus a soft Arizona DEF allowing 29.5 PPG. The Arizona DEF is ranked 45th in QB FPG (19.9), which seems pretty good on the surface, but when you dig deeper you realize those numbers are a facade. If you take away the Northern Arizona and California performances (their QB’s combined for 3.1 FPs), this Arizona DEF is allowing 24.54 FPG, which would have them ranked 98th in QB FPG. I like this matchup for Jayden de Laura.
Clayton Tune, Houston vs Memphis (DK: $6.9K | FD: $10.2K | O/U: 60.5 | Implied: 34.5)
Clayton Tune is averaging 244.8 PASS YPG and 2.1 TDs per game for 19.0 FPG. Tune could put up huge numbers in this potential shootout versus a weak Memphis PASS DEF ranked 95th in QB FPG (24.4) and 107th in PASS YPG (260.0). At $6.9K, Tune is in a great position to be the top QB on this slate and to smash value at his price point.
Aaron Allen, Louisiana Tech vs Southern Mississippi (DK: $4.5K | FD: $9.7K | O/U: 49.5 | Implied: 32.5)
Aaron Allen stepped into the starting QB role for Louisiana Tech and crushed it versus a weak Charlotte DEF last week, producing 23.56 FPs. Both Austin Kendall (back) and JD Head (shoulder) are questionable again this week so it looks like Allen will start for the second straight week. The Southern Mississippi DEF is ranked 46th in QB FPG (20.1), 38th in PASS YPG (209.4), and 101st in PASS YPA (8.0). However, the primary reason we are considering Allen is the fact he is priced at only $4.5K on DK. He is a lock to hit value at that price and allows us to spend up at the skill positions.
Louisiana Tech racked up a season-high 504 yards of total offense behind the arm of Aaron Allen and the legs of Marcus Williams, Jr. as the duo helped carry the Bulldogs to a 42-32 victory over Charlotte on Saturday afternoon at Joe Aillet Stadium. https://t.co/OUia2rVIGL— KTBS (@KTBS) November 14, 2021
Carson Strong, Nevada vs Air Force (DK: $9.0K | FD: $10.0K | O/U: 52.5 | Implied: 27.0)
Alton McCaskill, Houston vs Memphis (DK: $7.2K | FD: $9.5K | O/U: 60.5 | Implied: 34.5)
Alton McCaskill is quickly becoming one of my favorite CFF RBs. Since taking over the Houston backfield, McCaskill has scored double-digit FPs in every game. The only exception was the SMU game when he got injured early in the contest. McCaskill is averaging 31.8 FPG in his last two games. The Memphis DEF is ranked 74th in RB FPG (23.4) and 67th in RUSH YPG (150.3). If you can afford him, McCaskill is a great CASH/SE (single-entry) play.
Greg Bell, San Diego State vs UNLV (DK: $6.1K | FD: $8.7K | O/U: 41.0 | Implied: 25.75)
Greg Bell had his first 100-yard rushing game since week 6 last week versus Nevada. UNLV is ranked 38th in RB FPG (18.8), 61st in RUSH YPG (145.4) and 67th in RUSH YPC (4.08). On the surface, these numbers look good. However, their rush defense is only average, because their pass defense is terrible, ranking 111th in PASS YPG (266.1). San Diego State is a team that wants to run the ball evidenced by the fact they have 500 more rushing yards than passing yards on the season. They are going to establish the run with Bell, who has a great opportunity to hit value at $6.1K.
Max Borghi, Washington State vs Arizona (DK: $5.2K | FD: $7.4K | O/U: 52.5 | Implied: 33.75)
Max Borghi has not turned out to be the CFF star that many of us thought he would become early in his career. He has dealt with injuries, but the main reason for this disappointment was the change in offensive schemes, limiting Borghi’s volume. In the two games he has received more than 17 touches, he is averaging 28.35 FPG. With Washington State favored by 15, Borghi could see more touches in this contest. The Arizona DEF is ranked 83rd in RB FPG (24.6), 93rd in RUSH YPG (170.4) and 84th in RUSH YPC (4.26). I also think Deon McIntosh, who is splitting carries with Borghi, is worth considering here as he is only $4.6K on DK.
Frank Gore Jr., Southern Mississippi vs Louisiana Tech (DK: $6.6K | FD: $6.0K | O/U: 49.5 | Implied: 17.0)
Frank Gore Jr. is in consideration if he plays QB for Southern Mississippi again this week. The Golden Eagles have been ravaged by QB injuries this year and were forced to start Gore Jr. at QB last week. He performed admirably, rushing for 123 yards and a TD on 20 carries for 22.6 FPs before exiting late in the game with an injury. This is absolutely a situation to monitor heading into the next game. When Gore Jr. went out with injury, WR Antavious Willis stepped in at QB, rushing 19 times for 46 yards. He is only $3.0K on DK so he would absolutely be in play if he starts at QB.
It appears that Southern Miss, which has cycled through four different QBs this season, has finally abandoned the position entirely in favor of a full-time Wildcat attack with Frank Gore Jr.— Matt Hinton (@MattRHinton) November 13, 2021
Marcus Williams Jr., Louisiana Tech vs Southern Mississippi (DK: $6.5K | FD: $9.0K | O/U: 49.5 | Implied: 32.5)
Deon McIntosh, Washington State vs Arizona (DK: $4.6K | FD: $6.4K | O/U: 52.5 | Implied: 33.75)
Ta’Zhawn Henry, Houston vs Memphis (DK: $4.4K | FD: $6.5K | O/U: 60.5 | Implied: 34.5)
Nathaniel Dell, Houston vs Memphis (DK: $8.2K | FD: $8.5K | O/U: 60.5 | Implied: 34.5)
Nathaniel Dell is the top WR in the Houston passing attack leading the Cougars receiving corps in every statistical category with a 28.6 percent team target share. To put that number into perspective, no other Houston WR has more than a 11.6 percent team target share. The Memphis PASS DEF is ranked 129th in WR FPG (34.1) and 107th in PASS YPG (260.0). It’s hard to envision a scenario where Dell doesn’t hit value.
Smoke Harris, Louisiana Tech vs Southern Mississippi (DK: $5.9K | FD: $8.4K | O/U: 49.5 | Implied: 32.5)
Smoke Harris has been a PPR-machine over the last four games, averaging 7.75 receptions and 90.25 YPG with 4 TDs for 23.3 FPG. He is leading Louisiana Tech in every receiving statistical category with a 25.4 percent team target share. He has produced those numbers with three different QBs this season. At $5.9K, he is the best value at WR on this slate.
Smoke Harris. 66-yard TD.— PFF College Football (@PFF_College) October 3, 2020
Adjust your draft boards accordingly.
Travell Harris, Washington State vs Arizona (DK: $6.9K | FD: $8.7K | O/U: 52.5 | Implied: 33.75)
Calvin Jackson Jr., Washington State vs Arizona (DK: $6.4K | FD: $7.9K | O/U: 52.5 | Implied: 33.75)
Calvin Jackson and Travell Harris are putting up eerily similar receiving numbers this year and hold almost identical value on this slate. Both WRs are the inside WRs for this Run N Shoot offense that primarily targets inside WRs. Jackson is leading the team in targets and yards while Harris is leading the team in catches and TDs. All things being equal, I prefer Harris, because he is having a slightly better season statistically. However, if you need the $500 salary relief, then Jackson is a great option.
Cole Turner, Nevada vs Air Force (DK: $7.4K | FD: $8.0K | O/U: 52.5 | Implied: 27.0)
Eddie Lewis, Memphis vs Houston (DK: $3.7K | FD: $6.2K | O/U: 60.5 | Implied: 26.0)
Antavious Willis, Southern Mississippi vs Louisiana Tech (DK: $3.0K | FD: $4.5K | O/U: 49.5 | Implied: 17.0)