Week 4 SNF Showdown

General Rule for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups

1. Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
2. On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spread his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
3. On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest-scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
4. Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
5. Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrates on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
6. DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
7. When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.

Captain/MVP

First things first, Deebo Samuel has been activated and is $200, the bare minimum. Though Kyle Shanahan mentioned in his press conference they aren’t going to three Samuel into a massive role in his first game back. He’s definitely worth captain consideration given what he opens up for the rest of your flex players. With Samuel at captain, you can roster whoever you’d like, literally. I will say that I’d probably still get a bit unique with my roster construction and not just roster the five most expensive players with Samuel at captain because that lineup will probably be duplicated hundreds of times over in large field contests. Jerick McKinnon and Jeff Wilson Jr. split work evenly last week against the Giants, which makes it hard for them to really hit their ceiling projections. They are usable as captain/MVP, but I think it’s best to be underweight on them or at least split their ownership down the middle as it looks as though they’ll continue to share the load with Mostert and Coleman out. George Kittle returns to the lineup and is a worthy captain on DraftKings. The only decent tight end the Eagles have faced this year, Tyler Higbee, scored three touchdowns on them. That’s a bit of an ask for Kittle, but the matchup is very friendly. Nick Mullens strangely has some captain/MVP appeal to me as well. If you’ve been following this series over the last three weeks, you know that quarterback is played in the captain much more often than it hits. I think a lot of people aren’t going to click on Mullens in 1.5x spot, so I like slotting him in this week. The 49ers offense spreads the ball around as well, which is key for our QB captain to not be overtaken by a teammate. If Samuel was out I’d be more interested in 49ers receivers at the captain spot, but they are priced as if Deebo won’t be on the field. Brandon Aiyuk is probably the only pass-catcher outside of Deebo that deserves consideration as he is involved in the run game as well, but I’ll be concentrating on Mullens, Kittle, and Deebo from the 49ers.

I’ll pass on Carson Wentz at captain, because if he goes off in this game for multiple touchdowns, it’s likely that it was a concentrated attack to only a handful of pass-catchers. He is still in play as a FanDuel MVP, though. Miles Sanders has been a massive part of the Eagles offense since rejoining the lineup in Week 2. He has logged 38 carries and 15 targets in two weeks. The 49ers defense is shredded at the moment, which makes this entire Eagles’ offense, no matter how banged up viable at the captain spot. Zach Ertz with no Dallas Goedert should push for double-digit targets. I think we can dip as low as Greg Ward in the captain as well. He’s gained Carson Wentz’s trust last season and has reinforced it this season. This is definitely a slate that you can leave gobs of salary on the table given the injuries and pricing gaffes on the slate.

Flex

Nailing the 49ers pass-catchers will be key in this game. Kendrick Bourne makes for a nice pivot from Brandon Aiyuk. No one knows this for sure, but I think Samuel getting back on the field hurts Aiyuk more than it does Bourne. Bourne is already playing more snaps than Aiyuk and will most likely carry less ownership. That’s a good leverage spot. Bourne has been involved enough to be confident in him, as he’s been targeted at least five times in three straight games.

There are a few dart throws that could get involved in this game for the 49ers. Kyle Juszczyk always has a touch or two manufactured for him in the passing game. It’s usually some type of play-action or screen that has more often than you’d expect resulted in a big gain or score, he’s worth a flier if you are playing multiple lineups. Trent Taylor and Mohamed Sanu are less appealing with Samuel back, despite the ownership, Deebo seems like a much better play for the minimum. There is merit to pivoting to Taylor and Sanu in a lineup or two for leverage in case Deebo gets nicked up or is involved way less than we expect.

Because the Eagles have a concentrated group of pass-catchers, plus injuries, Wentz, Sanders, Ertz, and Ward will make up the bulk of my Eagles exposure. There just aren’t those cheaper dart throws on the Eagles side of the ball. Boston Scott and Corey Clement just aren’t playing enough to be a consideration, everything is going Miles Sanders’ way. Scott is priced in a way that a luckbox touchdown won’t alone be enough. Richard Rodgers and new signing Hakeem Butler will get on the field in multiple tight end sets, but I think it’s disingenuous to think they’ll be involved more than a stray target.

John Hightower is the one cheap eagle that is deserving of a roster spot. He should get on the field a bit, so he’s worth a rotational flier spot amongst your core. He played all but eight snaps in the Eagles’ game last week, despite only seeing three targets. The fact of the matter is he’ll be on the field enough to have a chance to break the slate at his price.

Both kickers and defenses are in play as always. Both Robbie Gould and Jake Elliott have had double-digit fantasy days this year. Given the injuries to both offenses, it wouldn’t be surprising to see some red zone trips stall. Both defenses have upside in their own right as well. The Eagles offensive line, including Jason Peters are pretty banged up. Even though the 49ers side of the ball is as banged up, we saw them have success against the Giants last week. The Eagles rank 5th in adjusted sack rate and Nick Mullens is known to take sacks.

Lineup Stack Starters

Shootout:

Captain/MVP: Nick Mullens

Flex: Carson Wentz, Zach Ertz, Miles Sanders

Captain/MVP: George Kittle

Flex: Nick Mullens, Greg Ward, Miles Sanders

Lopsided Win:

Captain/MVP: Jeff Wilson Jr.

Flex: 49ers DST, George Kittle, Greg Ward

Captain/MVP: Miles Sanders

Flex: Carson Wentz, Eagles DST, Jerick McKinnon

Vegas Projected Game Script:

Captain/MVP: Zach Ertz

Flex: Jake Elliott, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk

Captain: Deebo Samuel

Flex: Zach Ertz, George Kittle, Miles Sanders