Hello and welcome to the Week 14 Update. What is this article? Mostly it’s a follow-up to yesterday’s big DFS piece – Scott Barrett’s Week 15 DFS Breakdown. But this article should also offer some utility for redraft and dynasty players.
Each week I’ll be breaking down the key injuries, news, and notes from Saturday / Sunday and will be updating this article up until kickoff (1PM EST). And I’ll also be providing a sort of TL;DR to yesterday’s big DFS article. Who are my core cash game plays? You can find that at the end of the article.
Key News, Injury Updates, & Notes
Sunday Morning Update
- BREAKING: The Miami Dolphins will be without TE MIke Gesicki, WR DeVante Parker, AND WR Jakeem Grant. WR Lynn Bowden now rivals (and, truthfully, is probably a better play than) Emmanuel Sanders in cash. Factor in how late-news typically suppresses ownership, and I like him even more in GPPs.
- BREAKING: Ezeliek Elliott is OUT. Oh boy. Called it! Almost. Pollard is now probably the best-overall play on FanDuel and the 2nd-best overall play on DraftKings (behind Alvin Kamara).
- BREAKING: Mark Ingram is inactive. He only played on 1 snap last week, but this is no doubt beneficial to J.K. Dobbins who we like quite a bit, especially on FanDuel.
- BREAKING: Per Ian Rappoport: “QB Matthew Stafford -- who could barely walk last Sunday and struggled to breathe early in the week -- will somehow start today vs. the Titans despite a rib cartilage tear.” Yeah, probably, nevermind on WR Marvin Jones and TE TJ Hockenson. RB D’Andre Swift is a fine upside-play at low-ownership for large-field GPPs.
- BREAKING: Per John Keim, Washington RB Antonio Gibson WIILL NOT PLAY.
- BREAKING: Ravens WRs Marquise Brown, Miles Boykin, and James Proche have been activated from the Reserve/COVID-19 list.
- BREAKING: Vikings RB Alexander Mattison is ACTIVE. We talked about this yesterday.
- BREAKING: Patriots RB James White is ACTIVE.
- BREAKING: Per Tom Pelissero, Cardinals RB Chase Edmonds is EXPECTED TO PLAY but “may have a reduced role, though, depending on how he feels.”
- BREAKING: Per Ian Rapopport, Giants TE Evan Engram is EXPECTED TO PLAY and QB Daniel Jones is EXPECTED TO SIT.
- BREAKING: Dolphins RB Salvon Ahmed is ACTIVE. There’s a chance he sees a near-bell cow workload, like he did Weeks 10-11. It’s possible. JM seems to think so, but I’m a little less optimistic.
Saturday Night Update
- Per Adam Schefter, Cardinals RB Chase Edmonds “plans to play though he does want to first test it in pre-game warmups, per source.” This sounds like a true GTD. Get ready to go all-in on Drake should he sit out. Even if he’s active, I expect Drake to see an increased workload relative to Edmonds.
- Per Adam Schefter, Dolphins WR DeVante Parker is EXPECTED TO PLAY, despite “a minor hamstring strain.”
Saturday Update
- Texans RB Duke Johnson is OUT. RB C.J. Prosise is QUESTIONABLE. RB David Johnson averaged 9.8 FPG across the 2 games Duke Johnson missed earlier in the year (Weeks 2-3). Duke Johnson averaged 9.4 FPG when David Johnson sat out. You can make a case for him, and people are going to play him. But Houston’s running game has been absolute garbage all season, and this matchup is brutal. I won’t be playing him.
- Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott is QUESTIONABLE. Per HC Mike McCarthy, “He’s a little further away this week than he was last week, but I still plan on him playing on Sunday.” He didn’t practice at all this week, which is never good – and usually a sign that that player is destined for a severely diminished workload. Like I said yesterday, I think there’s a chance he sits out, and a good chance Tony Pollard out-touches him. Here’s what Dr. Jene Bramel had to say: “Although a contusion is generally less of a concern than a strain, it's clear Elliott is less than full strength… Elliott will play this week. But his Friday DNP and Mike McCarthy's comment that Elliott is ‘further away this week than he was last week’ confirm Elliott is not full strength.” Pollard remains in play as a contrarian punt-option on FanDuel.
- Seahawks RB Rashaad Penny is EXPECTED TO PLAY.
- Saints QB Drew Brees WILL START.
- Giants QB Colt McCoy WILL START.
- Per Ian Rapoport, Matthew Stafford is “preparing to start” against the Titans.
- 49ers RB Raheem Mostert WILL PLAY.
- Texans WR Brandin Cooks WILL PLAY.
- Lions RB D’Andre Swift WILL PLAY.
- Jets WR Denzel Mims WILL PLAY. WR Jamison Crowder is QUESTIONABLE.
- Ravens WRs Miles Boykin and Marquise Brown WILL PLAY.
- Dolphins RB Matt Breida WILL PLAY. RB Salvon Ahmed is QUESTIONABLE.
- Giants TE Evan Engram is QUESTIONABLE.
- Cardinals RB Chase Edmonds is QUESTIONABLE.
- Bears TE Jimmy Graham is QUESTIONABLE.
- Dolphins WRs DeVante Parker and Jakeem Grant are QUESTIONABLE, as is TE Mike Gesicki.
- Vikings RB Alexander Mattison is QUESTIONABLE.
- Cleveland TEs Austin Hooper and David Njoku are QUESTIONABLE.
- Colts TE Mo Alie-Cox is QUESTIONABLE.
- Ravens WR Miles Boykin is QUESTIONABLE.
- Washington RB Antonio Gibson is DOUBTFUL.
- Buccaneers RB Ronald Jones is OUT.
- Patriots RB Damien Harris is OUT.
- Eagles CB Darius Slay is OUT.
- Saints WR Michael Thomas is OUT.
- Falcons WR Julio Jones is OUT.
- Lions WR Kenny Golladay is OUT.
- Washington QB Alex Smith is OUT.
- Vikings TE Kyle Rudolph is OUT.
- 49ers WR Deebo Samuel is OUT.
Things I Think
I think this is a weird week, one that’s hard to gauge. I think cash is pretty easy, or, at least pretty obvious, with everyone playing a very similar stars/studs-type lineup. I think this is a great week to get weird in GPPs. As we said elsewhere, there’s very few clear and glaring values. This is one of the worst weeks of the season, per the DFS SuperModel. But in spite of all this, ownership will be highly concentrated around a few key players.
Of the players we featured in Saturday’s article, here’s who stands out as lower-owned: Kenyan Drake (DK: 5.7% / FD: 7.1%), Tony Pollard (0% / 0%), Miles Sanders (9.7% / 9.5%) Michael Gallup (5.2% / 8.0%), D.K. Metcalf (8.3% / 7.6%), and Keke Coutee (5.2% / 5.6%). After seeing this, I immediately increased exposure to Metcalf. I think this is a great week to have read the DFS Breakdown in its entirety instead of just stopping at the TLDR, or writing down names and ignoring players in the “Other” section.
Cash Core (DK/FD)
QB: Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson
RB: Alvin Kamara (lock), Tony Pollard (lock), Derrick Henry, Leonard Fournette, Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers, Kenyan Drake (DK), J.K. Dobbins (FD), Miles Sanders (FD)
WR: Brandon Aiyuk, Tyreek Hill, Emmanuel Sanders, Lynn Bowden, Michael Gallup, T.Y. Hilton (DK), Terry McLaurin, Allen Robinson (FD), Lynn Bowden, Robert Woods (FD), Russell Gage,
TE: Travis Kelce, Cole Kmet, Jared Cook
DEF: LAR, WAS (DK), TB (FD), SEA (DK), Full-on punts are fine this week
