The biggest free agency moves are officially in the books so it’s time to see what teams were the biggest risers and fallers in the NFL futures market. I’ll be periodically checking in to see how team win totals and the Super Bowl LV title odds change throughout the off-season up until kickoff in Week 1 — look formy next update after the draft.
Remember to always shop around sportsbooks before you place any NFL futures wagers. Sportsbooks will have wildly different odds and lines based on their liabilities with different futures wagers. You can maximize your chances of winning by looking around first and finding the best odds and prices. As always, good luck with your wagers!
Post-Free Agency Season Win Totals and Super Bowl LV Title Odds
Teams are ordered by their Super Bowl odds. Win totals are courtesy of Betonline.ag and Super Bowl LV winner odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
| Team | April 20 Win Total/SB Title | Feb. 5 Win Total/SB Title |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 11.5/+600 | 11.5/+600 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 11.5/+700 | 11/+800 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10.5/+900 | 10.5/+1400 |
| New Orleans Saints | 10/+1200 | 10/+1200 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 9/+1600 | 7.5/+5000 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 9.5/+1800 | 10/+1700 |
| New England Patriots | 9/+2000 | 10.5/+1400 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 9/+2000 | 9/+2000 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9.5/+2200 | 9/+2000 |
| Green Bay Packers | 9.5/+2200 | 9.5/+1600 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 9/+2500 | 9.5/+2000 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.5/+2800 | 9/+2000 |
| Buffalo Bills | 9/+2800 | 8.5/+3500 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 9/+2800 | 7.5/+4000 |
| Tennessee Titans | 8.5/+2800 | 8.5/+2200 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 8.5/+3300 | 8.5/+2200 |
| Cleveland Browns | 8.5/+3300 | 8/+3300 |
| Chicago Bears | 8.5/+3300 | 8/+3500 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7.5/+4000 | 8/+3300 |
| Denver Broncos | 7.5/+4000 | 8/+6000 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 7.5/+4000 | 7.5/+5000 |
| Houston Texans | 8/+5000 | 8.5/+3300 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 7.5/+5000 | 7/+5000 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 7.5/+5000 | 6.5/+6600 |
| New York Giants | 6.5/+6600 | 6.5/+6600 |
| Detroit Lions | 6.5/+6600 | 6.5/+6600 |
| New York Jets | 7/+7000 | 6.5/+7000 |
| Miami Dolphins | 6/+8000 | 5.5/+10000 |
| Carolina Panthers | 5.5/+8000 | 6.5/+6600 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 5.5/+10000 | 5.5/+10000 |
| Washington Redskins | 5.5/+10000 | 5.5/+15000 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5.5/+15000 | 5.5/+8000 |
Upgrades
Teams that sportsbooks are more optimistic about based on free agency moves and trades this off-season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7.5 to 9 wins, +5000 to +1600 SB title) — The Buccaneers landed the all-time leader in wins (219) and Super Bowl victories (six) in Tom Brady. It’s no surprise their win total and Super Bowl odds took the biggest leap upward since the start of free agency. Even at 43 years old this season, Brady will provide an immediate upgrade at quarterback over the turnover-prone Jameis Winston. Brady has thrown fewer INTs over the last four seasons (29) than Winston threw last season (30). Brady will keep this offense on track, and he won’t put this Buccaneers defense in bad spots by turning the ball over. The Buccaneers actually had the fifth-best defense last season based on the Football Outsider’s DVOA under DC Todd Bowles. The Patriots reached double-digit victories for 17 straight years with Brady on the roster, dating back to 2003. The nine-win threshold for the Bucs may look a little short then, but Brady will face much stiffer competition in the NFC South this season compared to his perennially easy slate of AFC East opponents.
Indianapolis Colts (7.5 to 9, +4000 to +2800) — The Colts got their man in free agency, inking Philip Rivers to a one-year deal. The Colts are in win-now mode with Rivers in the fold, taking their crack at winning an AFC Conference that will be without Tom Brady for the first time since 1999. Jacoby Brissett got off to a hot start last season by throwing for multiple TDs in five of his first six games. However, he suffered an MCL sprain against the Steelers in Week 9, which seemingly sent his season off the rails. Rivers, at 38 years old, isn’t a slam dunk to be a huge upgrade over Brissett after he threw for just 23 TDs (a 12-year personal low) with 20 INTs (third-most in NFL) last season. Colts HC Frank Reich and OC Nick Sirianni both worked with Rivers in San Diego, and they think rolling with Rivers is worth the gamble since he gives them a higher ceiling than Brissett. The Colts also made one of the splashiest moves on the defensive side of the ball, trading away the 13th-overall pick for DL DeForest Buckner so he can anchor their defensive front. Furthermore, their division rivals the Texans gave themselves a self-inflicted wound by trading away DeAndre Hopkins, which will make the AFC South a little easier to navigate.
Arizona Cardinals (6.5 to 7.5, +6600 to +5000) — The Cardinals had one of the best off-seasons thanks to Bill O’Brien’s generosity (Texans fans would say stupidity). Larry Fitzgerald’s Hall-of-Fame career is nearing its end, but they found their next linchpin for this wide receivers corps by landing DeAndre Hopkins as he enters his age-28 season. The Cardinals landed an elite WR for their franchise QB Kyler Murray, and they were able to rid themselves of the final two years of David Johnson’s massive contract in the process. The Cardinals also landed DT Jordan Phillips and LB De’Vondre Campbell, who will help their run defense. Arizona still needs some help at offensive tackle and along their defensive front seven, but landing Hopkins filled one gigantic need at WR while freeing them up to use their picks on their remaining needs.
Buffalo Bills (8.5 to 9, +3500 to +2800) — The Bills have made incremental strides in their first two seasons with Josh Allen at quarterback, but they’re gearing up to make a Super Bowl run while he’s still on his rookie contract. They traded away four picks, including a 202 first-round selection, to nab a true #1 wide receiver for their franchise QB in Stefon Diggs. The Bills know Allen’s accuracy limitations, and they now have one of the WRs corps at creating route separation with Diggs, John Brown, and Cole Beasley. The Bills did lose DT Jordan Phillips (Cardinals) and DE Shaq Lawson (Dolphins) this off-season, but they added DE Mario Addison, DT Vernon Butler, DE Quinton Jefferson, and LB A.J. Klein to make their defense even better. The Bills are also in better shape this season after Tom Brady’s 20-year reign of terror in the AFC East came to an end this off-season.
Miami Dolphins (5.5 to 6, +10000 to +8000) — The Dolphins, after getting off to a 0-4 ATS start last season, made their backers happy by ripping off a 9-3 ATS record to end the year. They also pulled off the biggest upset of the 2019 season in the final week of the season, which sped up Tom Brady’s departure from New England. The Dolphins stunned the Patriots 27-24 in Foxborough to easily cover as 17.5-point underdogs and to cash in +1000 moneyline bets. The loss made Brady and the Patriots play in the Wild Card Round and the rest is history, leaving the AFC East wide open this season. The Dolphins were clearly improving under first-year HC Brian Flores at the end of last season, and they loaded up in free agency by netting CB Byron Jones, LB Kyle Van Noy, DE Shaq Lawson, and OG Ereck Flowers among others. The Dolphins also have a league-high 14 picks in this year’s draft, including a league-best three first-round selections, to improve their roster even more. The Dolphins are in position to nab their franchise QB in the top-five of the draft, but they actually could be better off in 2020 if they let Ryan Fitzpatrick lead the offense for one more season. You might want to see what the Dolphins do at QB in the draft before placing a bet on the Dolphins win total or a long shot wager on their AFC East odds (+900 on DraftKings).
Downgrades
Teams that sportsbooks are less optimistic about based on free agency moves and trades this off-season.
New England Patriots (10.5 to 9, +1400 to +2000) — I’ve mentioned his name enough in this article so far, but Tom Brady’s historic signing with the Buccaneers caused major ripple effects throughout the league. The Patriots will head into their first season without Brady since the 20th century, and sportsbooks are skeptical that they’ll reach double-digit victories for the 18th straight season. HC Bill Belichick appears ready to roll with unproven second-year pro Jarrett Stidham and veteran backup Brian Hoyer at quarterback, but sportsbooks are clearly hesitant to give Belichick too long of Super Bowl title odds even without Brady. The Patriots also took some big hits on the defensive side of the ball, losing LB Kyle Van Noy (Dolphins), LB Jamie Collins (Lions), and DT Danny Shelton (Lions) this off-season. We’ll see if Belichick can work his magic without Brady this season, but the AFC East is officially up for grabs for the entire division for the first time in forever.
Houston Texans (8.5 to 8, +3300 to +5000) — HC/GM Bill O’Brien stunned the NFL nation when he traded away one of the league’s best non-quarterbacks in the league for pennies on the dollar. QB Deshaun Watson will be without four-time All-Pro WR DeAndre Hopkins for the first time in his career, and all the Texans got in return was a second-round pick and the corpse of RB David Johnson. Typically, teams like the Texans are trying to do everything they can to win a Super Bowl while they have a quarterback on a rookie contract. Apparently, B.O.B. operates differently than the rest of the league. The Texans then gave slot WR Randall Cobb $18.75 million in guaranteed money for his age 30-32 seasons before trading a second-round pick for Brandin Cooks, who has a scary history of concussion. The Texans also lost D.J. Reader to the Bengals, who has developed into one of the best run-stuffing nose tackles. Watson and Hopkins have covered up many of O’Brien’s sins the last three years. We’ll find out if Watson can continue to do it without a true #1 receiver this season.
Atlanta Falcons (8 to 7.5, +3300 to +4000) — The NFC South and the conference overall got a little more difficult with Tom Brady joining the division with the Buccaneers, which is the biggest reason their win total and Super Bowl odds changed. The Falcons also lost a few key pieces in TE Austin Hooper (Browns), OLB Vic Beasley (Titans), LB De’Vondre Campbell (Cards), CB Desmond Trufant (cut, Lions), and RB Devonta Freeman (cut, FA). Atlanta did add a huge piece by netting OLB Dante Fowler to replace Beasley, but the jury is still out on whether new TE Hayden Hurst and RB Todd Gurley can adequately replace Hooper and Freeman, respectively. I’m not nearly as down on the Falcons off-season as the sportsbooks are, but the Falcons still need some major help on defense, and they did lose their second-round pick for the talented but unproven Hurst.
Carolina Panthers (6.5 to 5.5, +6600 to +8000) and Jacksonville Jaguars (6.5 to 5.5, +8000 to +15000) — The race to the bottom to draft Trevor Lawrence is officially on between the Panthers and the Jaguars — the Redskins, the Bengals, and the Dolphins are also in the mix according to the sportsbooks. New Panthers HC Matt Rhule released two of this franchise’s cornerstone players in Cam Newton (FA) and Greg Olsen (Seahawks), and another franchise cornerstone retired in Luke Kuechly. The Panthers defense got absolutely battered on the ground last season, and they could be the worst run defense once again this season after DT Gerald McCoy, DT Dontari Poe, DT Vernon Butler, DE Mario Addison, and DE Bruce Irvin each left in free agency. New QB Teddy Bridgewater, new WR Robby Anderson, and the rest of this offense could be playing in plenty of shootouts this year for fantasy purposes.
I have no idea why Doug Marrone is still around in Jacksonville, but it looks like he could be a lame-duck coach with a team that’s looking to bottom out. In a strong AFC South, Marrone looks headed for his fourth last-place finish in the division in five seasons. The Jags were able to unload QB Nick Foles on the Bears after his disastrous one-season stay in Jacksonville, but this once-dominant defense is a shell of its former self. They took both DE Calais Campbell and CB A.J. Bouye off the books by trade before the start of free agency, and DE Yannick Ngakoue could be the next to go as he continues to force his way out of Jacksonville. The Jaguars ended the year on a brutal 2-6 ATS run, and the early markets are expecting more losing results in 2020.
