Paul Kelly's Week 9 Props

Player Props Record: 42-26 (62%) Last Week: 3-6 (33%)

Halloween played a trick on us last Sunday and we suffered our first losing week of the season. We could have easily been 5-4 but we got hosed with the James Robinson injury and Antonio Gibson’s continued struggles with his shin. Now we turn the calendar to a new month, it’s a new week and we’ll look to get back on track with a solid group of discrepancy prop picks this week.

Here’s some background on the process I use to find the props featured in this article. Looking to get an edge over the sportsbooks, a couple of years ago I started comparing each of John Hansen’s player projections to the player props being offered by the books. I looked for the largest discrepancies between John’s numbers and the books’ numbers to identify betting opportunities. I’ve developed a good feel and a baseline for what constitutes a “significant” discrepancy between the projections and the props and I’ve been betting accordingly – shopping the various books for the most favorable odds of course.

Here’s a look at the player prop discrepancies I like most for Week 9 followed by a list of all of the significant discrepancies for the week.

Jalen Hurts vs. LAC

This 61.5 yard discrepancy may be the largest yardage discrep we’ll see at any position all season. Hurts has gone under this number in three of his last four games including wayyy under last week as the Eagles finally found a running game. The Chargers are dead last against the run and have allowed the 5th-fewest passing yards this year so the Eagles could very well stick with their run-heavy approach this week. Could Hurts top 231 yards? Absolutely. But I have to play a discrepancy this large. This pick likely only gets derailed if the Eagles fall way behind.

Ezekiel Elliott vs. DEN

The ‘Boys are 10-point home favorites and Zeke has smashed this number in all three games that Dallas has won by more than one score this season. The Broncos defense handled a hobbled Antonio Gibson last week but remember they got gashed by D’Ernest Johnson the week before and have been a favorable matchup as they’re allowing the 5th-most FP to backs over the last four weeks. Zeke’s total yards prop is also in play this week.

Ja’Marr Chase vs. CLE

Chase let us down last week but we’re going right back to the well this week against the Brownies. He had just 32 yards against the Jets in Week 8 but he’s topped 77 yards in four of his last five games and there’s nothing scary about the matchup. The Browns are allowing the 4th-most fantasy points to WRs over the last four weeks.

Marquise Brown vs. MIN

There’s a lot to like here as Brown has topped this number in three of his last four games and in five of seven this season. The Vikings defense just allowed two different Cowboys WRs to top 100 yards in the same game last week and Brown is easily the Ravens’ best WR option this week (even moreso than usual) with both Sammy Watkins and Rashod Bateman at less than 100%.

Bryan Edwards @ NYG

While Edwards’ production has been spotty this year he gets a fresh start now with Henry Ruggs out of the picture. Ruggs’ 5 targets per game are now up for grabs and Edwards is (surprisingly) already leading all Raiders WRs in routes run per game this season. Nothing scary about the matchup and the Edwards breakout some were predicting this summer could be on the horizon.

Dalvin Cook @ BAL

Cook’s role in the passing game has diminished for some reason. He’s finished below this number in four straight games and caught zero balls last week against Dallas. The odds suck but I’m all about piling up wins and positive cash.

Brandin Cooks @ MIA

Cooks has beaten this number in seven of his eight games this year and now he gets Tyrod Taylor back at QB which is great news. Cooks caught 10 balls in 6 quarters of football with Tyrod in Weeks 1 and 2 and I’m firing this one up with confidence.

Cole Kmet @ PIT

Justin Fields is coming off his best game of the season which is good news for every Bear player. Kmet has topped this number in three straight games and while the Steelers don’t give up much to TEs, we don’t need much to win this wager.

Here’s the full list of statistically significant player prop discrepancies for Week 9 with my favorite plays in italics. Happy Wagering!