Paul Kelly's Week 15 Props

Player Props Record: 66-39 (63%) Last Week: 3-2 (60%)

We’ve now had winning record in four straight weeks and in 11 of 14 weeks this season. Week 15 presents some unique challenges with all of the Covid adjustments and uncertainty so there are fewer player props that meet my discrepancy criteria this week, and even fewer that I feel good about, but there’s still money to be won out there so let’s get to it!

Here’s some background on the process I use to find the props featured in this article. Looking to get an edge over the sportsbooks, a couple of years ago I started comparing each of John Hansen’s player projections to the player props being offered by the books. I looked for the largest discrepancies between John’s numbers and the books’ numbers to identify betting opportunities. I’ve developed a good feel and a baseline for what constitutes a “significant” discrepancy between the projections and the props and I’ve been betting accordingly – shopping the various books for the most favorable odds of course.

Here’s a look at the player prop discrepancies I like most for Week 15 followed by a list of all of the significant discrepancies for the week.

Trevor Lawrence vs. HOU

Pass attempt discrepancies this large don’t come along every week so I’m going to trust the player projections here on the site and hop on this one. Lawrence has gone over this number in 9 of 13 games including a 51-attempt game against the Texans in Week 1. In the four games Lawrence has failed to reach 30 pass attempts the Jaguars have lost the time of possession battle by an average of 7 minutes which limited the number of plays the Jags ran off. That likely doesn’t happen this week against Houston.

Cordarrelle Patterson @ SF

Cordarelle is the owner of the largest rushing yards discrepancy on the board this week. He’s gone over this number in three straight games and in all five games when he has carried at least 10 times and he is averaging 15 carries per game over his last three. The 49ers are giving up just 3.9 YPC so it's not a beautiful matchup and Mike Davis has been coming on…but Patterson should see enough carries to top 48 yards.

Jonathan Taylor vs. NE

Taylor has gone over this number in 4 of his last 5 with the only under coming against the Buccaneers stout run defense. The Patriots run defense this week doesn’t present the same challenges. They didn’t give up much to the anemic Bills running game in Week 13 but per our Tom Brolley, "D’Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard ripped New England’s run defense for 31/240/1 rushing in Week 12, and the Patriots are giving up 4.5 YPC to RBs this season."

Tre’Quan Smith @ TB

While the Saints passing game is difficult to trust, Smith has gone over this number in 6 of his last 7 games including against the Bucs in Week 8. Not expecting much but all we need is three grabs to cash this winning ticket and the Saints are 11-point road dogs so they should be throwing a bunch.

Here’s the full list of statistically significant player prop discrepancies for Week 15. Happy Wagering!