Paul Kelly's Week 12 Props

Player Props Record: 54-34 (61%) Last Week: 6-1 (86%)

We got back on the winning track in a big way in Week 11 winning six of our seven bets. The only prop we lost was Najee Harris over 80.5 rushing yards. The Chargers run D had been the worst in football by the numbers and that looked like a strong bet but then they go ahead and play the game and mess things up for us! We’re now back over 61% winners on the season and I’m excited to share this week’s plays with you.

Here’s some background on the process I use to find the props featured in this article. Looking to get an edge over the sportsbooks, a couple of years ago I started comparing each of John Hansen’s player projections to the player props being offered by the books. I looked for the largest discrepancies between John’s numbers and the books’ numbers to identify betting opportunities. I’ve developed a good feel and a baseline for what constitutes a “significant” discrepancy between the projections and the props and I’ve been betting accordingly – shopping the various books for the most favorable odds of course.

Here’s a look at the player prop discrepancies I like most for Week 12 followed by a list of all of the significant discrepancies for the week.

Miles Gaskin vs. CAR

Gaskin has gone over this carry total in three in a row and in four of his last five and we have him projected for 17 carries here on the site. We don’t typically see 4.5-carry discrepancies and I don’t see any reason to shy away from this one. The Dolphins are just 2-point home dogs so the running game should be in play all game. Gaskin is coming off a 23-carry effort last week with Salvon Ahmed a healthy scratch. They did add Phillip Lindsay this week but he won't likely be a factor.

Dontrell Hilliard @ NE

The Titans are reportedly high on Hilliard who led this backfield with a 63% snap share last week in the Titans’ surprising loss to the Texans. This week the Titans are 7-point road dogs and figure to be in a similar negative game script against the Patriots. Hilliard carried 7 times last week and now they’ve cut Adrian Peterson and Jeremy McNichols is out again.

Odell Beckham @ GB

Beckham barely played in his first game as a Ram but L.A. is coming off a bye which has given OBJ time to get familiar with the offense. HC Sean McVay says we should expect to see more Beckham this week. While recent history hasn’t been good for Beckham and I don’t particularly like backing him, he likely needs only 2 or 3 catches to win this prop. This number just seems too low as we have him projected for nearly twice as many yards here on the site.

Jonathan Taylor vs. TB

Taylor has been an absolute beast on the ground lately and he has also gone over this receptions prop in four of his last five games. While Taylor can clearly run well even in tougher matchups (like Buffalo last week), the Colts may look to get the ball into his hands in space a bit more this week against a very tough Tampa Bay defensive front. The Bucs are giving up a league-low 56.2 rushing yards per game to RBs so I like Taylor to get involved more as a pass catcher. The Tampa D has allowed 6.5 catches/game to backs over their last two and all we need are three catches to cash this winning ticket.

Davante Adams vs. LAR

I typically don’t like going against stud players and Adams did catch 9 balls in this matchup in last year’s playoffs but he has gone under this number in five straight games and will likely have Jalen Ramsey shadowing him for much of this week’s game. Also, Alan Lazard could be returning to syphon a couple of targets, Aaron Rodgers is playing with a broken toe that's kept him out of practice and the Rams have had two weeks to get ready for this game.

Here’s the full list of statistically significant player prop discrepancies for Week 12. Happy Wagering!