Paul Kelly's Week 11 Props

Player Props Record: 48-33 (59%) Last Week: 1-4 (20%)

We’re coming off just our second losing week of the season in Week 10 and it was a doozy. We caught a couple of bad beats missing out on Jamsion Crowder and Marquez Callaway reception props by half a catch each. We dust ourselves off and get right back at it this week and there are some good looking discrepancies to consider.

Here’s some background on the process I use to find the props featured in this article. Looking to get an edge over the sportsbooks, a couple of years ago I started comparing each of John Hansen’s player projections to the player props being offered by the books. I looked for the largest discrepancies between John’s numbers and the books’ numbers to identify betting opportunities. I’ve developed a good feel and a baseline for what constitutes a “significant” discrepancy between the projections and the props and I’ve been betting accordingly – shopping the various books for the most favorable odds of course.

Here’s a look at the player prop discrepancies I like most for Week 11 followed by a list of all of the significant discrepancies for the week.

Cam Newton vs. WAS

Cam announced to the world that he’s back after scoring a couple of touchdowns last week and now he’ll make his first start of the season for the Panthers against Washington. Cam will start the game but Carolina HC Matt Rhule says, “We’ll have both guys up (Newton and Walker), ready to play and we’ll probably play both of them,” per the Charlotte Observer. We have a big 50-yard discrepancy here with Cam’s passing yards projection set at 155 yards. Cam averaged just 177.1 yards per game in New England last year, this is his first extended action all season, he’s only had a couple weeks to learn the offense and the Panthers are favored at home and won’t likely need to throw a ton. Even though the Football Team’s pass defense has been horrible, there’s enough going on here to make me feel good about betting this discrepancy. Going under Cam’s attempts and completions is viable as well as those discreps are significant as well.

Najee Harris @ LAC

This is by far the largest rushing yards discrepancy on the board this week. Harris has beaten this number in four of his last five games and the Chargers are giving up a league-high 127.8 rushing yards per game to RBs. Last week Dalvin Cook ran for 118 yards in this matchup. The Bolts are favored by 5.5 at home but the Steelers should be able to keep this close enough to keep feeding the rock to Harris who has toted it 22+ times in five straight games.

Antonio Gibson @ CAR

Gibson handled a season-high 24 carries last week against the Bucs and Washington nearly won the game, which I’m sure isn’t lost on the Team’s coaching staff. Gibson seemed to make it through the game no worse for wear which is great news. Washington is just a 3-point road dog this week and as long as they can keep it within a score Gibson should be a cinch to top 13 carries against the Panthers.

Christian McCaffrey vs. WAS

The biggest receiving yards discrepancy on the board this week belongs to the best player in fantasy football? McCaffrey has beaten this number in all four games that he’s finished this year? OK I’m in. Note that CMC’s reception and total yards discrepancies are significant as well and worth considering.

Kadarius Toney @TB

Toney has been extremely difficult to trust in recent weeks but we still believe in the player and there’s a lot to like about him going over the number this week. Sterling Shepard is out, Toney isn’t on the injury report and the Giants are 11-point road dogs which should keep Daniel Jones throwing. We have Toney projected for 60 yards this week.

Tony Pollard @ KC

This one makes too much sense. The books are expecting a Dal/KC shootout this week and the Cowboys are 2.5-point road dogs. They’ll be throwing plenty in this game, Amari Cooper is out and all we need to win this bet is 2 catches from Pollard. He had 6 grabs last week and the Chiefs defense allowed 7 catches to Las Vegas running backs last week. The odds are lousy but it seems like an easy bet to win so I’ll believe in the discrepancy and play it.

Joe Mixon @ LV

The Raiders defense struggled big time against Darrel Williams last week allowing 144 total yards. All we need out of Mixon to win this bet is a little more than half that. He has topped this number in three of his last four games and is averaging 103.3 total yards per game in that span. Mixon’s usage in the passing game over the last month has been very encouraging and raises his total yardage floor significantly.

Here’s the full list of statistically significant player prop discrepancies for Week 11. Happy Wagering!