Week 14 started strongly at QB with elite producers Josh Allen (QB1), Aaron Rodgers (QB3), and Taysom Hill (QB4) featured, and Joe Burrow (QB8) and Justin Fields (QB9) were very good plays/values. The lone buzzkill was Dak Prescott (QB24), who has exited my circle of trust.
Not too shabby at RB with Javonte Williams (RB9), Leonard Fournette (RB6), and
Clyde Edwards Helaire (RB10) coming through, and Cordarrelle Patterson (RB17) was solid. Unfortunately, while Sony Michel (RB33) was a worthy play considering he got 20 carries, he underwhelmed and Antonio Gibson (RB41) was a complete flop, in part due to a fumble.
The story at WR for me was the buzzkills, like Tyreek Hill (WR42), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR67), Terry McLaurin (WR100), who did get hurt. Jamison Crowder (WR68) was also a big disappointment considering his excellent usage. On the positive side, Tyler Lockett (WR4), Hunter Renfrow (WR3), and Ja’Marr Chase (WR5) were great calls and Amari Cooper (WR22) was solid while Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR34) was quite a decent value.
The TE calls were boom or bust with two nice booms in Dawson Knox (TE3) and
Austin Hooper (TE5), and two bombs, which were both lower-end guys at least in Ricky Seals-Jones (TE42) and Dalton Schultz (TE48).
Note: For now, especially with all the covid news, I’m going to be a little more concise and spend more time finding quality picks, as opposed to writing about them.
Quarterbacks
Note: I’m ranking them in order of my favorite plays, mainly for cash games.
Aaron Rodgers (GB, at Bal — $7500 DK, $7600 FD) — He’s only the ninth-best value on DK, but he’s actually the top value on FD. Rodgers has now posted three of his four best fantasy performances in his last three games, so the toe can’t be considered an issue. The Ravens are decimated at CB on the outside, and they’re now giving up the second-most passing yards per game (280.0) to QBs. Even Baker Mayfield and Ben Roethlisberger have thrown for 2 TDs each against them the last two weeks. Rodgers won’t likely have to worry about DE Calais Campbell, and the Ravens should have no answer for Davante Adams.
Tua Tagovailoa (Mia, vs. NYJ — $5700 DK, $7400 FD) — He’s only the 12th-best value on FD, but he’s the #2 value on DK. We don’t know if Tua will have Jaylen Waddle or not, and that’s obviously huge, but DeVante Parker is back, which is also big. Tua has posted 17.8 FP or better in four of his last six full games, and he was an efficient 27/33 passes (81.8%) for 273 yards (8.3 YPA), two TDs, and one INT for 18.5 FP against the Jets in Week 11. The Jets have given up 2+ touchdowns (passing and/or rushing) to nine straight QBs, and Tua has clearly shown he will produce when the matchup is good, and it’s good. He should hit 3X return even if he’s without Waddle.
Ben Roethlisberger (Pit, vs. Ten — $5600 DK, $6600 FD) — I hate recommending old guys, but he’s a top-5 value on both sites. He’s hit 18+ FP in three of his last four games, and it’s definitely easier to throw on the Titans than to run on them, so I’m expecting 35-40 attempts by Big Ben and a solid 17-18 points, which would represent a win with 3X return.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
Jimmy Garoppolo (Pit, vs. Ten — $5800 DK, $6700 FD) — He’s a top-7 value on both sites. He’s never a must-have, but Jimmy G has 2 TD passes in five of his last six, and the Falcons are giving up the second-most FPG (21.4) to QBs this season. The 49ers will remain committed to their running game, but Jeff Wilson has not done well at all, so they will need some points from Jimmy this week. Deebo Samuel may not do much in the passing game, but we do still have studs George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk.
Running Backs
James Robinson (Jax, vs. Hou — $5400 DK, $6300 FD) — He’s actually a top-2 option on both sites. This might be a little contrarian, since he’s banged up, but I like Robinson as a sneaky play. He should have a new lease on life with Urban Meyer out of the picture, and Carlos Hyde is out with a concussion, so Robinson will get 20+ touches if he can handle it physically. RBs over the last four weeks against the Texans are averaging 30 carries for 150 rushing yards and 1.5 rushing TDs per game. Over the past two weeks, they’ve given up 355 rushing yards and 5 rushing TDs to opposing RBs. Uh, that’s a lot.
Craig Reynolds (Det, vs. Ari — $4300 DK, $5300 FD) — He’s a top-10 option on both sites. D’Andre Swift is out and there’s no sign of Jamaal Williams, so Reynolds looks like the guy again this week. The Lions elevated Reynolds from their practice squad last week and he didn’t disappoint with 11/83 rushing and 2/16 receiving and he led the backfield with a 46% snap share. The Cardinals can be run on and are giving up 4.6 YPC and the seventh-most catches per game (6.2) to RBs.
David Montgomery (Chi, vs. Min — $5900 DK, $6500 FD) — He’s a top-3 option on both sites. He’s had an illness this week, but he’s practiced the last two days, including Saturday, so he should be fine. Montgomery played 84% of the snaps last week and has 15+ touches in five straight games. He’s run on them in the past with a 32/146/2 rushing performance in his last matchup against them last year.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
Myles Gaskin (Mia, vs. NYJ — $5600 DK, $6600 FD) — He’s certainly not a must-play in any format, but I presume he will continue to lead this backfield as Gaskin did when these teams met in late November. He put up 23/89 rushing and 3/7/1 receiving on four targets, and the Jets are still giving up a league-high 35.3 FPG to RBs this season. He’s volatile but he’s very capable of putting up 20+ FP with volume.
Wide Receiver
Cooper Kupp (LAR, vs. Sea — $900 DK, $9000 FD) — He’s both the most expensive WR and also the best value, which tells you all you need to know about the matchup. Seattle has been brutal out of the slot, giving up the seventh-most FPG out of said slot. Brandin Cooks roasted them last week, mostly from the slot, so we’re fully preparing for Kupp to eat majorly with OBJ likely out.
Davante Adams (GB, at Bal — $8900 DK, $8500 FD) — A top-4 value on both sites, Adams should clean up this week. Adams is red hot, along with his QB, and he’s posting 100+ yards and 18+ FP in his last three games. The Ravens have given up 90+ yards to at least one individual WR in four straight games (five total) and look fairly hopeless on the outside at CB.
Diontae Johnson (Pit, vs. — $7500 DK, $7200 FD) — I’m beta testing a new nickname for Diontae: Dr. Pepper. Very few players have been peppered with targets the way Diontae has the last two seasons (probably just 1-2 others). He hit double-digit targets for the 10th time in 12 games last week, and the Titans are giving up a league-high 15.4 catches per game to WRs. Oh, and he dropped 9/80/2 against them in a game last year.
Marvin Jones (Jax, vs. — $4600 DK, $5700 FD) — He’s a top-8 value on both sites, and I like this play as a slam dunk and will sleep well if it doesn’t hit. Jones was involved as a player and source in the Urban Meyer fiasco, and he also played for new HC Darrell Bevel in Detroit. It’ll be a statement game with Meyer gone, and it’s a perfect setup as the Texans have all kinds of injury problems at CB. Jones also showed signs of life last week with 6/70 receiving, and he posted 18.7 FP in this matchup in the season opener. They will undoubtedly take a few deep shots to Jones, and he should beat CB Desmond King at least once.
Gabriel Davis (Buf, vs. Car — $3900 DK, $4900 FD) — He’s a top-6 value on both sites because his projection is jacked up higher based on the matchup and the fact that Emmanuel Sanders is expected to miss the game. Davis put up 5/43/1 receiving on eight targets (15% share) last week while playing a season-high 87% of the snaps. We should see top corner Stefon Gilmore on Stefon Diggs most of the day, and #2 CB Donte Jackson, who is good, is out, so Davis’ matchup is tasty.
Nico Collins (Hou, vs. Jax — $3500 DK) — DK only but I legit think he can get 11 FP this week, which is 3X return. And there’s upside for 15+ based on usage last week and matchup. He’s clearly a future starter here so they have every reason to play him a lot, and he looked good last week with 70% of the snaps, 10 targets, and 5/69. Davis Mills also looked very good last week and it’s a good matchup (not a great one, mind you, as the Jags front it good).
DeVante Parker (Mia, vs. NYJ — $4300 DK, $5800 FD) — He’s a top-10 value on both sites, and a top-5 value on DK with such a low salary. Parker was eased back into action before their bye with a season-low 71% snap share in Week 13, but he caught all five of his targets for 62 yards. Parker will be the no-doubt #1 WR for Tua this week if Jaylen Waddle remains on the COVID list, and our guy Wes Huber says that Parker is a top-10 wideout when working against Cover 3, which is a foundation of the Jets coverage.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB, at Bal — $4900 DK, $5500 FD) — He’s not a great value per se, but then again he’s almost impossible to project due to his volatility. MVS had seen a team-high 19 targets in Green Bay’s previous two games heading into Week 14, but he underwhelmed with just 3/20 on five targets against the Bears. But he has tangible upside in a great matchup against the thinned Ravens secondary that is giving up the third-most FPG to outside WRs. I liked Donovan Peoples-Jones in this matchup last week and he delivered 3X value and posted 5/90 receiving on seven targets.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
CeeDee Lamb (Dal, at NYG — $7400 DK, $7400 FD) — He’s a way better value on FD, but regardless, I like Lamb this week. I’m not going to list Dak Prescott because he’s been so shaky, but I do think Dak has a chance to bounce back nicely, even without LT Tyron Smith, because the Giants have no pass rush, won’t have CB Adoree Jackson, and got shredded last week by Justin Herbert for 275/3 passing for 24.9 FP last week. Lamb has 10+ targets and seven catches in each of his last two games, and he’s leading the team with a 23% target share. The Giants are giving up the 11th-most FPG out of the slot, and slot WR Josh Palmer posted 5/66/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Det, vs. Ari — $5200 DK, $5900 FD) — St. Brown was actually my favorite late, late, WR sleeper this year, and I actually did a video on him in August. While it was slow going early, I nailed the prediction that he would lead the Lions WRs in catches with over 50 (he has 57 now). St. Brown has 15+ FP and 12 targets in two straight games, and he may make it three this week with a solid matchup. The Cards are giving up the 10th-most FPG to slot receivers the last eight weeks, and their secondary is thinned with CB Robert Alford out. Detroit will have to throw a lot, as usual.
Brandin Cooks (Hou, at Jax — $5800 DK, $6900 FD) — He’s a top-15 value on both sites. Cooks was back last week with Davis Mills playing well at quarterback, posting his second-best fantasy performance (18.1) in his last 10 contests. Cooks threw up 5/132 receiving on seven targets when these teams met in Week 1 with Tyrod Taylor at QB, yet Cooks is still averaging 14.4 FPG in Mills’ starts versus just 11.7 FPG with Tyrod. Cooks is lining up in the slot more these days, and the Jags give up the 11th-most FPG to slot receivers the last eight weeks, so I’m not that worried about CB Shaq Griffin returning to the lineup.
Darnell Mooney (Chi, vs. Min — $5500 DK, $7200 FD) — He’s a top-12 value on both sites, and he’s fourth-best on FD. Mooney has been bad the last two weeks, but I don’t put Week 13 on him at all. That was Andy Dalton, one of the worst bad-weather QBs of all time. I’m very convinced that Mooney will get reacquainted with Justin Fields in this plus matchup. The Vikings allowed three different Steelers’ WRs to post 15+ FP against them just last week for God’s sake.
Chris Godwin (TB, vs. NO — $7600 DK, $8800 FD) — We obviously have the Mike Evans-Marshawn Lattimore battle going on in this one, which benefits Godwin, who has
25/248 receiving on 32 targets over his last two games. Godwin put up 8/140/1 receiving on 12 targets when these teams met in Week 8, and I’m looking for a possible 10+ catch game in this one.
Tight Ends
George Kittle (SF, Atlanta vs. — $7500 DK, $7800 FD) — He’s only the 12th-best value on DK, but he’s the top value on FD. Deebo Samuel may be running the ball a lot, and there’s stud CB AJ Terrell to deal with outside, so this should be another Kittle game. Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate combined for three TD receptions against the Falcons in Week 13.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
Zach Ertz (Ari, at Det — $5400 DK, $5300 FD) — I haven’t trusted Ertz enough to list here much, but with DeAndre Hopkins out, he’s looking good with a great matchup. The Lions are giving up a whopping 8/80/.5 per game to TEs the last four weeks, and over the last eight week’s TEs are being targeted 10 times a game (most) with 7.3 receptions per game (most). Ertz also had a team-best 22% target share while Hopkins was out of the lineup in Weeks 9-11.
Finally, the Lions gave up a combined 9/92/2 receiving to Albert Okwuegbunam and Noah Fant last week.
Primetime Players (Includes Sat, Mon, and Tue options)
Justin Fields (Chi, vs. Min — $5500 DK, $6800 FD) — He’s a top-4 value on both sites, and the top value on DK. We’ll see about Allen Robinson but it’s not a critical loss if he’s out. The matchup is great and his confidence should be higher than usual because, you know, the Vikings.
Mac Jones (Ind, at Ind — $5400 DK) — DK only, where he’s the fourth-best value and needs to post only 16.2 FP to deliver 3X return. I have him with 16.3. With Damien Harris out, they may throw a little more, and with Jones coming out of the bye, they may have some new wrinkles in the passing game.
Dalvin Cook (Min, at Chi — $8500 DK, $9000 FD) — Given the circumstances in the league this week, the risk we’re taking with Cook and his shoulder injury seems minimal considering the reward with 20+ touches likely. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon combined for 20/106/1 rushing and 3/30/1 receiving against the Bears last week and Cook could easily duplicate those numbers himself.
Nick Chubb (Cle, vs. LV) — We still don’t know all we’ll eventually know about this matchup before kickoff, but I do know this: Chubb is getting the ball. Kareem Hunt will not play, so Chubb’s snaps should be up to around 70% after he’s played just 56% of the snaps in his three games with Hunt this season. The Raiders allowed a combined four TDs and 49.0 FP to three Chiefs RBs last week, so the matchup is obviously great. They also won’t have LB Denzel Perryman, usually a key to his team’s run defense.
Rhamondre Stephenson (NE, at Ind — $4900 DK, $6800 FD) — A top-2 value on both sites, he’s one of the bigger no-brainers of the year, quite frankly. Indy’s tough against the run, but with 20+ touches, Stephenson’s delivering 15+ points for sure.
Hunter Renfrow (LV, at Cle) — No Darren Waller means it’s almost all Renfrow, who now has 8+ catches, 100+ yards, and 19+ FP in three straight games. The Browns are giving up the 13th-fewest catches per game (12.0) to WRs this season, but they are down two of their top-3 corners, including slot corner Troy Hill, who has been very good this year.