We’re rolling into Week 2 after an up-and-down Opening Day. It was a break-even week for me as a few game picks popped but I lost big on the Cardinals-Titans game sliding under by 1 point. Player props were also a mixed bag – I hit some layups – but missed big on the MNF game by betting heavily on the Ravens.
Lessons have been learned and we are moving onward…
Rams at Colts
Bet – Rams (-3.5, DraftKings)
Why? – We’re running it back with another bet against the Colts after hitting Seahawks -3 on Opening Day. Indianapolis is just sticking out like a sore thumb as overrated by the markets after offering little resistance to Russell Wilson (18-of-23 for 254 yards and 4 TDs). The Rams only needed 51 plays to score 34 points against Chicago last week and while Indianapolis is certainly a better team – the Rams have advantages on both sides of the ball. The Colts offensive line gave up pressure on 36% of Carson Wentz’s dropbacks against Seattle last week (ninth-highest rate) and now face a far tougher test in Aaron Donald & Co. The Colts are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a home underdog (H/T Brolley) and are poised to make it 0-7 here.
Bengals at Bears
Bet – Bengals moneyline (+130, PointsBet)
Why? – I’m on the Bengals straight-up as road dogs in Chicago. Andy Dalton was simply abysmal in Week 1 against the Rams, and while the Bengals clearly don’t have the defensive talent that L.A. possesses – Cincinnati could move the ball at will here. The Bears have one good cornerback in the secondary and I think we’re going to see the Bengals attack through the air with their trio of weapons in Chase, Higgins, and Boyd. This line opened at Bears -3.5 and then was hammered down to -1.5 and may end up as a Pick ‘Em, so I just jumped on a fairly juicy ML bet before that happens.
49ers at Eagles
Bet – Parlay: Eagles (+3.5) + Over 46.5 (+180, FOXBet)
Why? – I’m sticking with my second underdog bet of the week on the Eagles covering +3.5 and parlaying that with a slightly teased down over (46.5). Philadelphia looked fantastic last week and are now catching the Niners on a back-to-back east coast road stint. San Francisco has always traveled well under Shanahan, but Jalen Hurts presents a challenge their defense typically struggles with as the 49ers gave up the second-most rush yards (446) to QBs last season. This game should be very competitive throughout.
Raiders at Steelers
Bet – Steelers -5.5 (+130, PointsBet)
Why? – Since Vegas hired HC Jon Gruden in 2018, the Raiders are 3-7 ATS in early-start games on the east coast and have been held to 20 or fewer points seven times in those 10 games. Coming off of an exciting OT victory on MNF vs. the Ravens, this is a red-flag let down spot for the Raiders. I’m all over the Steelers here.
Vikings at Cardinals
Bet – Over 50.5 points (-110, DraftKings)
Why? – Over the Vikings last 17 games dating back to Week 1 of last season – their games have combined for an average of 56.2 points per game. Whew. In fact, the Vikings are 9-3 towards the over in their last 12 games with 10-of-12 scoring 50 or more points.
Chiefs at Ravens
Bet – Chiefs -3.5 (-110, FoxBet)
Why? – Baltimore is 0-2 ATS against Kansas City in their last two matchups and the Ravens are still reeling from a slew of injuries.
Bet – Over 67.5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings)
Why? – This was an opening bet on Wednesday morning when DK released their props. With Ryan Fitzpatrick (hip) out, Washington will be forced to lean heavily on Antonio Gibson against a Giants defense that was just gashed for 25/146/1 by Melvin Gordon / Javonte Williams. We have Gibson projected for 87 yards rushing on TNF, which gives plenty of wiggle room against the market.
FRIDAY UPDATE: Money!
Bet – Over 3.5 receptions (-140, BetMGM) and over 51.5 yards (-115, BetMGM) – two separate bets
Why? – Golladay got out of Week 1 unscathed and didn’t have any setbacks with his balky hamstring and got full-time usage as he ran a route on 40 of Daniel Jones’ 45 dropbacks, trailing only Sterling Shepard in routes run (42). Golladay went 4/64 and now gets an even better matchup according to our guy Wes Huber.
FRIDAY UPDATE: Golladay got 8 targets and turned it into 3 receptions and 38 yards. Cool, cool, cool. Not tilting at all.
Bet – Over 4.5 receptions (-110, DraftKings)
Why? – Chase put all of the haters and Twitter Hot Take Artists overreactions to bed in Week 1 by dropping 5/101/1 and roasting the Vikings corners all day long. Chase’s rapport with Joe Burrow was on full display as he led the team in targets (7) and routes run (31) out of the gates. Even though the Bengals played it safe and let Joe Mixon wear down the Vikings in Burrow’s return, Chase earned 26% of the team’s targets – which tied for the 11th-highest rate among WRs on Opening Day with CeeDee Lamb and DeVante Parker. With this type of alpha usage already, Chase could explode once again in a more pass-heavy environment and we have that on tap here. After unceremoniously letting Kyle Fuller walk this offseason, Chicago is very thin in the secondary and was immediately exposed for multiple big plays in Week 1 by Matthew Stafford (20-for-26, 321 yards, 3 TDs).
Bet – Over 3.5 receptions (+110, PointsBet)
Why? – Callaway led the WRs in routes (20), but earned just 2 targets on Winston’s 20 dropbacks while the Saints mopped the floor with the Packers on Opening Day. In fact, the Saints WR group as a whole got just 6 total targets in Week 1. This is a bet (at plus money!) in favor of the Saints playing in a much more normal game in Week 2 and Callaway still being the clear lead wideout.
Bet – Over 5.5 receptions (-125, BetMGM)
Why? – CMC was CMC again out of the gates, playing on 89% of the Panthers' snaps and was Sam Darnold’s lead target (9) in Week 1. McCaffrey catches 6 or more passes in his sleep – he’s done so in 10 of his last 12 games dating back to 2019 – and Carolina will certainly look to feed him in the passing game since New Orleans’ run defense is among the league’s best. In fact, CMC has caught 7 or more balls against the Saints in three of his last 4 meetings with his only failure coming in Week 17, 2018 when he rested for much of the game as the Panthers were drawing dead towards the playoffs at 7-9.
Bet – Over 80.5 rushing yards (-110, FOXBet)
Why? – The Browns should absolutely stomp the Texans. Chubb averages 96.5 rushing yards per game when the Browns are favored by a field goal or more.
Bet – Over 2.5 receptions (+115, DraftKings)
Why? – Ran 24 routes last week and got 7 targets. The Colts WRs / TEs aren’t very good, which will force Taylor to be more involved in the passing game by design. Game-script should also help Taylor get to 3 receptions with the Colts projected to trail again – just like last week.
Bet – Over 4.5 receptions (+110, BetMGM)
Why? – Meyers has seen at least 20% of the Patriots in 11 of his last 12 games, including last week. Led Pats WRs in targets (9) and routes run (42). Jets are a way softer matchup than last week.
Bet – Under 60.5 rushing yards (-120, FOXBet)
Why? – Shanahanigans. That’s why. We’ll see some sort of rotation this week with Trey Sermon active, and while Mitchell may very well be the 1A back, this is a high line to begin with. The Eagles run defense held Falcons backs to 17/62 (3.65 YPC) last week.
Bet – Over 47.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
Why? – This was a shockingly low prop. Smith was electric in his rookie debut, leading the team in routes, targets, receptions, and yards. The 49ers defense is very banged up here and are going to be down LB Dre Greenlaw, CB Jason Verrett and CB Emmanuel Moseley is doubtful. I’m betting heavily on the Eagles offense this week. We have Smith projected at 72.5 yards on the week.
Bet – Over 15.5 carries (-120, DraftKings)
Why? – Layup bet of the week. Carson dominated snaps last week and saw 80% of the carries. Rashaad Penny is out. Seattle are 6.5-point favorites, so the game-script should be in his favor easily.
Jalen Hurts over 224.5 passing yards + DeVonta Smith over 44.5 receiving yards + Trey Lance anytime TD (+1300, BetMGM)
Tom Brady over 294.5 passing yards + Brady 2+ TDs + Antonio Brown over 54.5 receiving yards + Mike Evansb
Dak Prescott over 306.5 passing yards + CeeDee Lamb over 76.5 yards + Amari Cooper over 74.5 yards (+337, FanDuel)
ROI THIS SEASON
Player Props +1%
Correlated Props 33%