Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!
Monday Night Football
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-2, 4-3 ATS) at New York Giants (1-6, 4-3), 8:15 p.m.
Implied Team Totals: Buccaneers 28.75, Giants 16.25
Spread/Total Movements: 10.5 to 12.5, 47 to 45
Weather: 39 degrees, clear, 10-15 mph
Buccaneers Injuries to Watch: WR Chris Godwin (finger, out)
Giants Injuries to Watch: RB Devonta Freeman (ankle, out), LG Will Hernandez (COVID-19 list), CB Ryan Lewis (hamstring)
Buccaneers Trends
The Buccaneers have the league’s best point differential at +80.
The Buccaneers knocked off two teams with winning records at the time (Packers and Raiders) by a combined 53 points.
Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a road favorite.
Tom Brady now has two performances of 33+ FP sandwiching two performances with 14 FP in Week 5-6. He’s clearly getting more comfortable in this passing attack as he’s attempted 41+ passes in three of his last four games. Carson Wentz just threw for 359 yards and two TDs for 28.8 FP against the Giants last week.
Mike Evans is averaging 21 FP with a 22% target share in three games without Chris Godwin while he’s averaging 7 FP with an 8% target share in four games with Godwin. Evans has run 38% of his routes out of the slot when Godwin is out compared to just 9% when Godwin is in the lineup. That’s especially important this week so Evans can get away from top CB James Bradberry on the perimeter.
Scotty Miller and Tyler Johnson will have bigger roles this week before Godwin and Antonio Brown join the lineup in Week 9 and beyond. Miller exploded for 6/109/1 receiving last week after having just 1/6 receiving on two targets in Weeks 5-6. Johnson has scored in consecutive games, and the Giants have been exploited by slot WRs including last week when Greg Ward went for 5/42/1 receiving.
Rob Gronkowski has seen 6+ targets in four of his last five games and he’s turned in consecutive games with 5+ catches and 60+ yards with a touchdown. The Giants have allowed 13+ FP to TEs in consecutive games
The Buccaneers are down to a two-man backfield (for now) as Bruce Arians used Leonard Fournette as the team’s passing/hurry-up back last week, relegating LeSean McCoy to the bench. Fournette ended up leading Ronald Jones in snaps (40 to 31), carries (13 to 11), and targets (7 to 2) with their new roles. RoJo is averaging 10.2 FPG in games with Fournette in the lineup. The Giants are giving up 3.9 YPC and 86.4 rushing yards per game to RBs while they’re giving up 5.7/51.6 receiving per game to backs.
Giants Trends
The Giants are not allowing fans this week.
The Giants have the second-lowest implied team total of the week.
The Giants coughed up an 11-point fourth-quarter lead to the Eagles in Week 6.
New York is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as an underdog.
The Giants are 5-2 toward unders this season.
Daniel Jones finally reached 20+ FP last week thanks in large part to his 88-yard run (and stumble) against the Eagles. Jones needs to keep running as he has in recent weeks as he has 45+ rushing yards in four of his last five games. He has fewer than 200 passing yards in each of those contests, which has kept him from bigger fantasy performances. The Buccaneers have held opposing QBs to under 15 FP in five of their seven games this season.
Sterling Shepard came off the injured reserve in Week 7 and he immediately stepped into the #1 WR role, pushing Darius Slayton into more of a secondary role. Shepard posted 6/59/1 receiving on eight targets against the Eagles, giving him 5+ catches in each of his last five full games with Jones. Tampa is giving up the eighth-fewest FPG to WRs this season but Nelson Agholor hung 5/107/1 receiving against them last week.
Slayton managed just 2/23 receiving as he finished fourth in targets with just four looks (13.3% share) as he saw coverage from top CB Darius Slay. Slayton now has just 4/64/1 receiving on eight targets over the last two weeks, and he’s failed to reach double-digit FP in four of his seven games. The Buccaneers have allowed just one TD to WRs in their last three games.
Evan Engram botched New York’s chance to put away the Eagles with a drop on a long pass, which was a sour note to finish on after he saw his best usage in weeks. He finished with 6/46 receiving on a team-best nine targets (30% share) in Week 9, which was his sixth time with fewer than 50 yards in seven games. The Giants did give him two carries, which he turned into three yards, and the passing game as a whole started to move in the right direction with Shepard back in the lineup. Darren Waller posted 6/50/1 receiving against Tampa last week.
Devonta Freeman left Week 7 early with an ankle injury, but the Giants appeared to give Wayne Gallman a chance to play even before his injury. The Giants decided to play Gallman with the starters on the opening drive of the second half before he gave way to Freeman on the second series. Freeman then got injured in pass protection on that series, which ended his day with 3/8 rushing without a catch against the Eagles. Gallman led the backfield the rest of the way, which he turned into 10/34/1 rushing and 5/20 receiving. Expectations have to be extremely low for Gallman as the lead back this week as Tampa is allowing the fewest rushing yards to RBs per game (48.1) and the fewest YPC (2.7). Tampa is at least allowing 6.7/50.9/.1 receiving per game to RBs.
Brolley’s Bets
New York Giants +12 (Staff Pick Lean)
Rob Gronkowski (TB) over 38.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)
Wayne Gallman (NYG) over 2.5 receptions (Best Bet)
